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Summary: Leaf traits are essential for understanding many physiological and ecological processes. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models with leaf spectroscopy are widely applied for trait estimation, but their transferability across space, time, and plant functional types (PFTs) remains unclear.We compiled a novel dataset of paired leaf traits and spectra, with 47 393 records for > 700 species and eight PFTs at 101 globally distributed locations across multiple seasons. Using this dataset, we conducted an unprecedented comprehensive analysis to assess the transferability of PLSR models in estimating leaf traits.While PLSR models demonstrate commendable performance in predicting chlorophyll content, carotenoid, leaf water, and leaf mass per area prediction within their training data space, their efficacy diminishes when extrapolating to new contexts. Specifically, extrapolating to locations, seasons, and PFTs beyond the training data leads to reduced R2 (0.12–0.49, 0.15–0.42, and 0.25–0.56) and increased NRMSE (3.58–18.24%, 6.27–11.55%, and 7.0–33.12%) compared with nonspatial random cross‐validation. The results underscore the importance of incorporating greater spectral diversity in model training to boost its transferability.These findings highlight potential errors in estimating leaf traits across large spatial domains, diverse PFTs, and time due to biased validation schemes, and provide guidance for future field sampling strategies and remote sensing applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hector is an open-source reduced-complexity climate–carbon cycle model that models critical Earth system processes on a global and annual basis. Here, we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3.2.0 (hereafter Hector V3), and document its new features, implementation of new science, and performance. Significant new features include permafrost thaw, a reworked energy balance submodel, and updated parameterizations throughout. Hector V3 results are in good general agreement with historical observations of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and global mean surface temperature, and the future temperature projections from Hector V3 are consistent with more complex Earth system model output data from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We show that Hector V3 is a flexible, performant, robust, and fully open-source simulator of global climate changes. We also note its limitations and discuss future areas for improvement and research with respect to the model's scientific, stakeholder, and educational priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarizes the open community conventions developed by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI) for the common formatting and archiving of ecological forecasts and the metadata associated with these forecasts. Such open standards are intended to promote interoperability and facilitate forecast communication, distribution, validation, and synthesis. For output files, we first describe the convention conceptually in terms of global attributes, forecast dimensions, forecasted variables, and ancillary indicator variables. We then illustrate the application of this convention to the two file formats that are currently preferred by the EFI, netCDF (network common data form), and comma‐separated values (CSV), but note that the convention is extensible to future formats. For metadata, EFI's convention identifies a subset of conventional metadata variables that are required (e.g., temporal resolution and output variables) but focuses on developing a framework for storing information about forecast uncertainty propagation, data assimilation, and model complexity, which aims to facilitate cross‐forecast synthesis. The initial application of this convention expands upon the Ecological Metadata Language (EML), a commonly used metadata standard in ecology. To facilitate community adoption, we also provide a Github repository containing a metadata validator tool and several vignettes in R and Python on how to both write and read in the EFI standard. Lastly, we provide guidance on forecast archiving, making an important distinction between short‐term dissemination and long‐term forecast archiving, while also touching on the archiving of code and workflows. Overall, the EFI convention is a living document that can continue to evolve over time through an open community process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hector, an open-source reduced complexity climate-carbon cycle model. Hector is a computationally efficient source of climate information, capable of completing a run in a fraction of a second. Hector models critical Earth system processes on a global and annual basis. Here we present an updated version of the model, Hector V3. In this manuscript, we document Hector's new features, and implementation of new science (e.g., radiative forcing calculations, carbon cycle, etc.). Hector V3 results are in good agreement with historical observations of CO2 concentrations and global mean surface temperature, and its future temperature projections are consistent with more complex Earth System Model output data from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We document that Hector V3 is a flexible, performant, and robust simulator of contemporary and 21st-century global climate, and in closing, discuss future areas of improvement and research with respect to the model's scientific, stakeholder, and educational priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spectroscopic reflectance data provide novel information on the properties of the Earth's terrestrial and aquatic surfaces. Until recently, imaging spectroscopy missions were dependent mainly on airborne instruments, such as the Next Generation Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS‐NG), providing limited spatial and temporal observations. Currently, there is an emergence of spaceborne imaging spectroscopy missions, which require advances in end‐to‐end model support for traceability studies. To provide this support, the LPJ‐wsl dynamic global vegetation model is coupled with the canopy radiative transfer model, PROSAIL, to generate global, gridded, daily visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR) spectra (400–2,500 nm). LPJ‐wsl variables are cross‐walked to meet required PROSAIL parameters, which include leaf structure, chlorophyll a + b, brown pigment, equivalent water thickness, and dry matter content. Simulated spectra are compared to a boreal forest site, a temperate forest, managed grassland, a dryland and a tropical forest site using reflectance data from tower‐mounted, aircraft, and spaceborne imagers. We find that canopy nitrogen and leaf‐area index are the most uncertain variables in translating LPJ‐wsl to PROSAIL parameters but at first order, LPJ‐PROSAIL successfully simulates surface reflectance dynamics. Future work will optimize functional relationships required for improving PROSAIL parameters and include the development of the LPJ‐model to represent improvements in leaf water content and canopy nitrogen. The LPJ‐PROSAIL model is intended to support missions such as NASA's Surface Biology and Geology and subsequent modeled products related to the carbon cycle and hydrology. Plain Language Summary: The reflectance of the land surface provides information on vegetation composition, health, and productivity. New satellite missions are designed to better capture finely resolved reflectance information using imaging spectroscopy or hyperspectral techniques. These missions require modeling support to evaluate uncertainties. Here we present a new integrated land surface model that simulates reflectance spectra from 400 to 2,500 nm at 10 nm resolution for the entire global land surface at daily resolution. The model is evaluated using tower and pathfinder hyperspectral missions. We find that the modeling approach reproduces surface reflectance and identifies areas of model and observational improvements. Key Points: The Earth's surface reflectance yields important information on vegetation composition, health, and productivityA new modeling approach is developed to simulate surface reflectance to support imaging spectroscopy missionsThe modeling approach reproduces tower‐based measurements and pathfinder satellite missions and identifies areas for model improvement [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography‐2.2 (ED‐2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real‐world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED‐2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear‐cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two‐fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade‐off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and it's highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes. Plain Language Summary: Forests play an important role in the carbon cycle. How forests respond and recover to disturbances is largely uncertain. Here, we use a model to investigate the effects of disturbances under different climatic conditions. Key Points: Climatic conditions affect how forests will respond to and recover from disturbancesDisturbance severity strongly affects carbon fluxes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) investigation will create global maps of spectral surface reflectance and emissivity at a cadence of 16 days or better, with coverage to address global questions about Earth's geology, cryosphere and ecosystems. The revolutionary potential poses a commensurate challenge: creating contiguous maps free from regional biases induced by atmosphere, observation geometry, or inversion error. This will require an accurate calibration with precise knowledge of each channel's spectral response. Here, we quantify the impact of spectral calibration on SBG's aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem objectives. We find that contemporary algorithms for ecosystem trait retrieval demand more accurate spectral calibration than historical missions. Errors due to drift or spatial nonuniformity in the wavelength calibration that have previously been considered acceptable can cause systematic errors larger than the instrument noise and of the same order as the variability SBG aims to measure. Moreover, their impact on atmospheric correction can induce climate‐dependent systematic errors that thwart comparisons between ecosystems. These results underscore the importance of spectral response accuracy in SBG mission design. Plain Language Summary: Remote imaging spectrometers operating in visible to shortwave infrared wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum measure the intensity of solar‐reflected light as hundreds of distinct channels. This requires knowing the precise spectral range to which each channel is sensitive. The accurate association of wavelengths to instrument channels is known as the spectral calibration of the instrument, or simply spectral fidelity. Small errors in this calibration can have a significant impact on measurement accuracy. This study evaluates the sensitivity of a future global investigation of Earth's ecosystems to such errors. We find that small errors in spectral calibration can cause large inaccuracies in maps of ecosystem properties. This means that accurate spectral calibration will be critical for the success of these future investigations. Key Points: The spectrometer of NASA's Surface Biology and Geology investigation will need precise spectral calibrationWavelength calibration errors previously considered acceptable could result in measurement distortions far greater than the instrument noiseWavelength calibration inaccuracy can induce humidity‐dependent biases, thwarting efforts to compare ecosystem traits across regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permafrost currently stores more than a fourth of global soil carbon. A warming climate makes this carbon increasingly vulnerable to decomposition and release into the atmosphere in the form of greenhouse gases. The resulting climate feedback can be estimated using land surface models, but the high complexity and computational cost of these models make it challenging to use them for estimating uncertainty, exploring novel scenarios, and coupling with other models. We have added a representation of permafrost to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector, calibrated to be consistent with both historical data and 21st century Earth system model projections of permafrost thaw. We include permafrost as a separate land carbon pool that becomes available for decomposition into both methane (CH 4) and carbon dioxide (CO 2) once thawed; the thaw rate is controlled by region-specific air temperature increases from a preindustrial baseline. We found that by 2100 thawed permafrost carbon emissions increased Hector's atmospheric CO 2 concentration by 5 %–7 % and the atmospheric CH 4 concentration by 7 %–12 %, depending on the future scenario, resulting in 0.2–0.25 ∘ C of additional warming over the 21st century. The fraction of thawed permafrost carbon available for decomposition was the most significant parameter controlling the end-of-century temperature change in the model, explaining around 70 % of the temperature variance, and was distantly followed by the initial stock of permafrost carbon, which contributed to about 10 % of the temperature variance. The addition of permafrost in Hector provides a basis for the exploration of a suite of science questions, as Hector can be cheaply run over a wide range of parameter values to explore uncertainty and can be easily coupled with integrated assessment and other human system models to explore the economic consequences of warming from this feedback. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canopy radiative transfer is the primary mechanism by which models relate vegetation composition and state to the surface energy balance, which is important to light- and temperature-sensitive plant processes as well as understanding land–atmosphere feedbacks. In addition, certain parameters (e.g., specific leaf area, SLA) that have an outsized influence on vegetation model behavior can be constrained by observations of shortwave reflectance, thus reducing model predictive uncertainty. Importantly, calibrating against radiative transfer outputs allows models to directly use remote sensing reflectance products without relying on highly derived products (such as MODIS leaf area index) whose assumptions may be incompatible with the target vegetation model and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we created the EDR model by coupling the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT-5) and a simple soil reflectance model to predict full-range, high-spectral-resolution surface reflectance that is dependent on the underlying ED2 model state. We then calibrated this model against estimates of hemispherical reflectance (corrected for directional effects) from the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration significantly reduced uncertainty in model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types. Using a single common set of parameters across all sites, the calibrated model was able to accurately reproduce surface reflectance for sites with highly varied forest composition and structure. However, the calibrated model's predictions of leaf area index (LAI) were less robust, capturing only 46 % of the variability in the observations. Comparing the ED2 radiative transfer model with another two-stream soil–leaf–canopy radiative transfer model commonly used in remote sensing studies (PRO4SAIL) illustrated structural errors in the ED2 representation of direct radiation backscatter that resulted in systematic underestimation of reflectance. In addition, we also highlight that, to directly compare with a two-stream radiative transfer model like EDR, we had to perform an additional processing step to convert the directional reflectance estimates of AVIRIS to hemispherical reflectance (also known as "albedo"). In future work, we recommend that vegetation models add the capability to predict directional reflectance, to allow them to more directly assimilate a wide range of airborne and satellite reflectance products. We ultimately conclude that despite these challenges, using dynamic vegetation models to predict surface reflectance is a promising avenue for model calibration and validation using remote sensing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an era of rapid global change, our ability to understand and predict Earth's natural systems is lagging behind our ability to monitor and measure changes in the biosphere. Bottlenecks to informing models with observations have reduced our capacity to fully exploit the growing volume and variety of available data. Here, we take a critical look at the information infrastructure that connects ecosystem modeling and measurement efforts, and propose a roadmap to community cyberinfrastructure development that can reduce the divisions between empirical research and modeling and accelerate the pace of discovery. A new era of data‐model integration requires investment in accessible, scalable, and transparent tools that integrate the expertise of the whole community, including both modelers and empiricists. This roadmap focuses on five key opportunities for community tools: the underlying foundations of community cyberinfrastructure; data ingest; calibration of models to data; model‐data benchmarking; and data assimilation and ecological forecasting. This community‐driven approach is a key to meeting the pressing needs of science and society in the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Secondary forest regrowth shapes community succession and biogeochemistry for decades, including in the Upper Great Lakes region. Vegetation models encapsulate our understanding of forest function, and whether models can reproduce multi‐decadal succession patterns is an indication of our ability to predict forest responses to future change. We test the ability of a vegetation model to simulate C cycling and community composition during 100 years of forest regrowth following stand‐replacing disturbance, asking (a) Which processes and parameters are most important to accurately model Upper Midwest forest succession? (b) What is the relative importance of model structure versus parameter values to these predictions? We ran ensembles of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 with different representations of processes important to competition for light. We compared the magnitude of structural and parameter uncertainty and assessed which sub‐model–parameter combinations best reproduced observed C fluxes and community composition. On average, our simulations underestimated observed net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) after 100 years and predicted complete dominance by a single plant functional type (PFT). Out of 4,000 simulations, only nine fell within the observed range of both NPP and LAI, but these predicted unrealistically complete dominance by either early hardwood or pine PFTs. A different set of seven simulations were ecologically plausible but under‐predicted observed NPP and LAI. Parameter uncertainty was large; NPP and LAI ranged from ~0% to >200% of their mean value, and any PFT could become dominant. The two parameters that contributed most to uncertainty in predicted NPP were plant–soil water conductance and growth respiration, both unobservable empirical coefficients. We conclude that (a) parameter uncertainty is more important than structural uncertainty, at least for ED‐2.2 in Upper Midwest forests and (b) simulating both productivity and plant community composition accurately without physically unrealistic parameters remains challenging for demographic vegetation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem models are often calibrated and/or validated against derived remote sensing data products, such as MODIS leaf area index. However, these data products are generally based on their own models, whose assumptions may not be compatible with those of the ecosystem model in question, and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we develop an alternative approach whereby we modify an ecosystem model to predict full-range, high spectral resolution surface reflectance, which can then be compared directly against airborne and satellite data. Specifically, we coupled the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT 5) and a simple soil reflectance model. We then calibrated this model against reflectance observations from the NASA Airborne VIsible/InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration successfully constrained the posterior distributions of model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types. The calibrated model was able to accurately reproduce surface reflectance and leaf area index for sites with highly varied forest composition and structure, using a single common set of parameters across all sites. We conclude that having dynamic vegetation models directly predict surface reflectance is a promising avenue for model calibration and validation using remote sensing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we present results from the first phase of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). RCMIP is a systematic examination of reduced complexity climate models (RCMs), which are used to complement and extend the insights from more complex Earth System Models (ESMs), in particular those participating in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In Phase 1 of RCMIP, with 14 participating models namely ACC2, AR5IR (2 and 3 box versions), CICERO-SCM, ESCIMO, FaIR, GIR, GREB, Hector, Held et al. two layer model, MAGICC, MCE, OSCAR and WASP, we highlight the structural differences across various RCMs and show that RCMs are capable of reproducing global-mean surface air temperature (GSAT) changes of ESMs and historical observations. We find that some RCMs are capable of emulating the GSAT response of CMIP6 models to within a root-mean square error of 0.2°C (of the same order of magnitude as ESM internal variability) over a range of scenarios. Running the same model configurations for both RCP and SSP scenarios, we see that the SSPs exhibit higher effective radiative forcing throughout the second half of the 21st Century. Comparing our results to the difference between CMIP5 and CMIP6 output, we find that the change in scenario explains approximately 46% of the increase in higher end projected warming between CMIP5 and CMIP6. This suggests that changes in ESMs from CMIP5 to CMIP6 explain the rest of the increase, hence the higher climate sensitivities of available CMIP6 models may not be having as large an impact on GSAT projections as first anticipated. A second phase of RCMIP will complement RCMIP Phase 1 by exploring probabilistic results and emulation in more depth to provide results available for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report author teams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Destruction of tropical rainforests reduces many unprotected habitats to small fragments of remnant forests within agricultural matrices. To date, these remnant forest fragments have been largely disregarded as wildlife habitat, and little is known about mammalian use of these areas in Sumatra. Here, we conducted camera trap surveys (2285 trap-nights) within Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park and five surrounding remnant forest fragments during 2010–2013 and used species composition metrics to compare use. We found 28 mammal species in the protected forest and 21 in the fragments. The fragments harboured a subset of species found in the protected forest and several species not observed in the protected forest. Critically endangered species such as Sunda pangolin (Manis javanica) and Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) were found in the forest fragments, along with species of conservation concern such as marbled cat (Pardofelis marmorata) and Asiatic golden cat (Pardofelis temminckii). The biodiversity found within the fragments suggests that these small patches of remnant forest may have conservation value to certain mammal species and indicates the importance of further research into the role these habitats may play in landscape-level, multispecies conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term (1982-1995) observations of the ground thermal regime of a drained thaw-lake basin in the Pechora Lowlands of the Russian European north revealed a high spatial and temporal variability in the ground temperature response to artificial drainage. The thermal response was controlled by the atmospheric climate and by evolution of the landsurface following drainage. Observed changes in permafrost conditions were related to three climatic subperiods identified from air and ground temperature trends. The first (1982-1984) was characterized by gradual ground cooling associated with partial formation of permafrost patches under the initial stage of formation of marshy meadows. The second (1985-1987) involved strong ground cooling, resulting in the formation of a subsurface permafrost layer beneath most of the basin. The third (1988-1995) was marked by a gradual increase in annual mean ground temperature, promoting partial permafrost degradation under marshy meadows and willow stands. Initially, newly aggraded permafrost remained under peat mounds and tundra meadows. The spatial pattern of permafrost change can be attributed to heterogeneous landsurface evolution and variable snow thickness. Four distinct ground temperature regimes are distinguished: (i) thawed ground, (ii) deep permafrost, (iii) unstable permafrost and (iv) stable permafrost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric deposition is an important pathway for moisture, nutrient, and pollutant exchange among the atmosphere, forest, and soils. Previous work has shown the importance of proximity to the forest edge to chemical fluxes in throughfall, but far less research has considered stemflow. This study examined the difference in acid neutralization capacity (ANC) of stemflow of nineteen Liriodendron tulipifera L. (yellow poplar) trees between the forest edge and interior in a rural area of northeastern Maryland. We measured ANC directly via potentiometric titration. Stemflow from trees at the forest edge was found to have significantly higher and more variable pH and ANC than in the forest interior ( p < 0.01). No mathematical trend between ANC and distance to the forest edge was observed, indicating the importance of individual tree characteristics in stemflow production and chemistry. These results reaffirm the importance of stemflow for acid neutralization by deciduous tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]