Search

Three-dimensional coseismic surface deformation fields are important for quantifying the geometric and kinematic characteristics of earthquake rupture faults. However, traditional geodetic techniques are constrained by intrinsic limitations: Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) can only extract far-field deformation fields owing to incoherence; global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) can only acquire displacement at discrete points. The recently developed optical pixel correlation technique, which is based on high-resolution remote sensing images, can acquire near-field coseismic horizontal deformation. In this study, InSAR line-of-sight (LOS) and azimuth direction far-field deformation, horizontal near-field deformation determined using optical pixel correlation based on pre- and post-earthquake GaoFen (GF)-2/7 images, and vertical deformation determined by differencing pre- and post-earthquake GF-7 digital elevation models (DEMs) were combined to comprehensively provide the three-dimensional deformation field of the 2022 Mw 6.6 Menyuan earthquake. The results show that the near-field deformation field calculated by optical pixel correlation quantified displacements distributed over the rupture fault zone, which were not available from the InSAR deformation maps. We identified significant vertical displacements of ~1–1.5 m at a bend region, which were induced by local compressive stress. The maximum uplift (>2.0 m) occurred near the epicenter, on the southern sides of the main and secondary faults along the middle segment of the ruptured Lenglongling fault. In addition, surface two-dimensional strain derived from the displacement maps calculated by optical pixel correlation revealed high strain concentration on the rupture fault zone. The method described herein provides a new tool for a better understanding of the characteristics of coseismic surface deformation and rupture patterns of faults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A strong motion seismometer is a kind of inertial sensor, and it can record middle- to high-frequency ground accelerations. The double-integration from acceleration to displacement amplifies errors caused by tilt, rotation, hysteresis, non-linear instrument response, and noise. This leads to long-period, non-physical baseline drifts in the integrated displacements. GNSS enables the direct observation of the ground displacements, with an accuracy of several millimeters to centimeters and a sample rate of 1 Hz to 50 Hz. Combining GNSS and a strong motion seismometer, one can obtain an accurate displacement series. Typically, a Kalman filter is adopted to integrate GNSS displacements and strong motion accelerations, using the empirical values of noise uncertainty. Considering that there are significantly different errors introduced by the above-mentioned tilt, rotation, hysteresis, and non-linear instrument response at different stations or at different times at the same station, it is inappropriate to employ a fixed noise uncertainty for strong motion accelerations. In this paper, we present a Sage–Husa Kalman filter, where the noise uncertainty of strong motion acceleration is adaptively estimated, to integrate GNSS and strong motion acceleration for obtaining the displacement series. The performance of the proposed method was validated by a shake table simulation experiment and the GNSS/strong motion co-located stations collected during the 2023 Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6 earthquake doublet in southeast Turkey. The experimental results show that the proposed method enhances the adaptability to the variation of strong motion accelerometer noise level and improves the precision of integrated displacement series. The displacement derived from the proposed method was up to 28% more accurate than those from the Kalman filter in the shake table test, and the correlation coefficient with respect to the references arrived at 0.99. The application to the earthquake event shows that the proposed method can capture seismic waveforms at a promotion of 46% and 23% in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively, compared with the results of the Kalman filter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shear strength of damage zone, representing the stress threshold for rupture initiation, is a critical parameter in faulting mechanics. Despite its significance, the damage‐zone's shear strength has not been estimated in natural earthquake ruptures. Here we employed coseismic deformation and strain, kinematic slip model, and finite element modeling to determine the elastic properties and peak shear stress of coseismic damage zones along the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo earthquake. Through the analysis of the lowest shear stress resulting in surface ruptures and the highest stress without surface rupture, we constrained the strength within a range of 7–17 MPa. Our result is consistent with strength (5–16 MPa) of sandstone samples from laboratory tests, demonstrating the validity of this estimation. Although factors such as fault maturity and confining pressure influence strength variation, the strength can directly reflect the stress threshold required for macroscopic surface rupture formation in fault damage zones dominated by sandstone. Plain Language Summary: Shear strength of a fault damage zone inform us its ability to withstand shear stress before surface rupture occurs. This information often provides insights into the earthquakes rupture hazards near the Earth's surface. Natural earthquakes provide a perfect opportunity for us to address the question of "what is the shear strength of a fault damage zone." To this end, we require a set of comparative references: the utmost shear stress that a damage zone can withstand without surface rupture and the minimal one necessary for the zone to generate surface rupture. In this investigation, we studied the 2021 Maduo earthquake because it had multiple distinct surface rupture segments in some places but not in others. By comparing shear stress in these segments, we could figure out how strong the damage zones were. We used real observations and numerical simulations to estimate how much stress these damage zones can withstand. Our results indicate that, for damage zones embedded in intact sandstone with a Young's modulus of 15 GPa, its strength ranges from 7 to 17 MPa. Significantly, our study is the first to reveal the shear strength of damage zone from a nutural earthquake using geodetic data. Key Points: Shear modulus and shear stress for coseismic damage zone were determined using coseismic deformation and finite element modelEstimated shear strength from overlap range of coseismic stress between surface rupture and non‐rupture parts ranges from 7 to 17 MPaShear strength exhibits positive and negative correlations with confining pressure and fault maturity, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characterizing the coseismic slip behaviors of earthquakes could offer a better understanding of regional crustal deformation and future seismic potential assessments. On 18 December 2023, an Mw 6.0 earthquake occurred on the Lajishan–Jishishan fault system (LJFS) in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, causing serious damage and casualties. The seismogenic fault hosting this earthquake is not well constrained, as no surface rupture was identified in the field. To address this issue, in this study, we use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to investigate the coseismic surface deformation of this earthquake and invert both ascending and descending line-of-sight observations to probe the seismogenic fault and its slip characteristics. The InSAR observations show up to ~6 cm surface uplift caused by the Jishishan earthquake, which is consistent with the thrust-dominated focal mechanism. A Bayesian-based dislocation modeling indicates that two fault models, with eastern and western dip orientations, could reasonably fit the InSAR observations. By calculating the coseismic Coulomb failure stress changes (∆CFS) induced by both fault models, we find that the east-dipping fault scenario could reasonably explain the aftershock distributions under the framework of stress triggering, while the west-dipping fault scenario produced a negative ∆CFS in the region of dense aftershocks. Integrating regional geological structures, we suggest that the seismogenic fault of the Jishishan earthquake, which strikes NNE with a dip of 56° to the east, may be either the Jishishan western margin fault or a secondary buried branch. The optimal finite-fault slip modeling shows that the coseismic slip was dominated by reverse slip and confined to a depth range between ~5 and 15 km. The released seismic moment is 1.61 × 1018 N·m, which is equivalent to an Mw 6.07 earthquake. While the Jishishan earthquake ruptured a fault segment of approximately 20 km, it only released a small part of the seismic moment that was accumulated along the 220 km long Lajishan–Jishishan fault system. The remaining segments of the Lajishan–Jishishan fault system still have the capability to generate moderate-to-large earthquakes in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies have demonstrated the potential of satellite thermal infrared observations to detect anomalous signals preceding large earthquakes. However, the lack of well-defined precursory characteristics and inherent complexity and stochasticity of the seismicity continue to impede robust earthquake forecasts. This study investigates the potential of pre-seismic thermal anomalies, derived from five satellite-based geophysical parameters, i.e., skin temperature, air temperature, total integrated column water vapor burden, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and clear-sky OLR, as valuable indicators for global earthquake forecasts. We employed a spatially self-adaptive multiparametric anomaly identification scheme to refine these anomalies, and then estimated the posterior probability of an earthquake occurrence given observed anomalies within a Bayesian framework. Our findings reveal a promising link between thermal signatures and global seismicity, with elevated forecast probabilities exceeding 0.1 and significant probability gains in some strong earthquake-prone regions. A time series analysis indicates probability stabilization after approximately six years. While no single parameter consistently dominates, each contributes precursory information, suggesting a promising avenue for a multi-parametric approach. Furthermore, novel anomaly indices incorporating probabilistic information significantly reduce false alarms and improve anomaly recognition. Despite remaining challenges in developing dynamic short-term probabilities, rigorously testing detection algorithms, and improving ensemble forecast strategies, this study provides compelling evidence for the potential of thermal anomalies to play a key role in global earthquake forecasts. The ability to reliably estimate earthquake forecast probabilities, given the ever-present threat of destructive earthquakes, holds considerable societal and ecological importance for mitigating earthquake risk and improving preparedness strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large block‐bounding faults on the Tibetan plateau are significant geological structures that accommodate tectonic movements and accumulate stress, leading to large earthquakes. Quantifying the interseismic slip deficit rate helps to better assess the earthquake potential. We combine available InSAR (2015–2020) and interseismic GPS data to determine fault coupling along 14 major block‐bounding faults. Spatially dense InSAR measurements remarkably improve the resolution of the coupling model. Combined with a GPS‐constrained block model, we examine the performance of the inversion approach with the stress constraint and the common Laplacian smoothing based on both synthetic tests and real data. We suggest that, for continental strike‐slip faults, adding the stress constraint can mitigate unphysical coupling distributions due to unreasonable assumptions or modeling artifacts, reducing the model uncertainty and improving the accuracy of the coupling model. This is particularly useful for segments featured by a highly heterogeneous distribution of coupling along the transition zone from locking to creeping region, partially‐coupling segment, and junction zone between main and subsidiary faults. We present a large‐scale fault coupling map along the major block‐bounding faults on the northeastern and eastern Tibetan plateau, highlighting the distinct degrees of fault coupling and lateral variations. The collage of coupling maps along different faults demonstrates the kinematic features over a broad time scale during earthquake cycles ranging from early to late interseismic phases, such as the segments ruptured during the 2001 Kokoxili earthquake and the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake. Plain Language Summary: Large faults at the boundary of blocks accommodate a significant portion of the relative movement between adjacent blocks and accumulate tectonic stress during the interseismic period. Consequently, these faults have a high potential to generate large earthquakes. To evaluate the distribution of strain accumulation, we analyze InSAR (2015–2020) and interseismic GPS measurements to construct a coupling model, which tells us the extent to which two blocks are locked together and accumulate stress before the next earthquake. We focus on 14 major faults on the eastern and northeastern Tibetan plateau. The addition of the spatially dense InSAR data helps to resolve the coupling distribution in greater detail, where GPS observations are limited. We evaluate different approaches to determine fault coupling, including stress constraints and smoothing techniques. Our findings indicate that adding a stress constraint performs better than the smoothing operator and helps mitigate physically unrealistic coupling distributions in the inversion using the spatial smoothing method. The stress constraint improves the accuracy of the coupling model. Based on the stress‐constrained inversion, we present a comprehensive fault coupling map in the northeastern and eastern Tibetan plateau, highlighting the spatial variations of fault coupling, which can be used in earthquake hazard assessment. Key Points: Stress constraints can mitigate unphysical coupling distributions and reduce the uncertainty of the coupling model for continental faultsWe highlight the improvement when using stress constraints in the case of sharp coupling contrasts along the strike‐slip faultWe provide a new coupling model along 14 major block‐bounding faults on the eastern and northeastern Tibetan plateau [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coseismic deformation field on both sides of the fault, especially the distribution and change characteristics of near-field deformation, not only provides important constraints for the fine inversion of the slip distribution model but also serves as an important basis for the anti-disruption defense of the cross-fault linear engineering facilities. In this paper, we used Sentinel-1 satellite data to obtain the coseismic deformation field of the Maduo earthquake by using InSAR and offset techniques. We quantitatively compared the coseismic displacement of the three types of data: InSAR, offset, and optical images. The results show that optical images and offset provided more robust near-fault (<2 km) deformation insights than InSAR, which exhibited irregular deformation patterns due to incoherence near the fault. The maximum relative displacements for InSAR and offset observations are ~2.8 m and 4 m, respectively. Then we tested various fault slip models with different data constraints, revealing that a combined inversion of GPS, InSAR, and offset data offers superior constraints on slip distribution. This integrative approach effectively captured both shallow and deep fault slip, particularly near the fault zone. The eastern branch fault model, jointly constrained by GPS, InSAR, and offset data, is the optimal coseismic slip distribution model for the Maduo earthquake, and the maximum slip is 5.55 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Türkiye-Syria earthquake doublet of 6 February 2023 (Mw 7.8 at 01:17 UTC and Mw 7.6 at 10:24 UTC) resulted in extensive damage and tens of thousands of casualties. We present the surface displacements of the two earthquakes from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) offset tracking measurements. We extracted the geometric parameters of the rupture faults from the surface displacements and early aftershock distribution, based on which we inverted the coseismic slip distributions. We then calculated Coulomb stress to investigate the triggering relationship between the earthquakes and stress transfer to neighbouring faults and regions. The coseismic ruptures of the earthquake doublet were predominantly left-lateral strike-slip motions distributed between 0 and 15 km depth. The maximum fault slip reached > 8 m (Mw 7.8) and almost 10 m (Mw 7.6). The coseismic deformation and fault slip motion are consistent with the overall westward extrusion of the Anatolian Plate relative to the Eurasian and Arabian plates. The Mw 7.8 earthquake increased Coulomb failure stress at the hypocenter of the Mw 7.6 earthquake, implying that the Mw 7.8 event had a strong positive causative effect. Moreover, coseismic stress perturbations revealed a positive Coulomb stress effect on the middle Puturge Fault, northern Dead Sea Fault Zone (DSFZ), Yesemek Fault, Antakya Fault, and Turkoglu Fault, indicating an increasing seismic hazard in these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, The ENVISAT advanced synthetic aperture radar observations from 2003 to 2010 of a descending track covering an area of 100 km × 300 km were used to map the surface velocity field in northwestern Tibet. The derived line-of-sight (LOS) velocity map revealed that interseismic deformation was mainly located on the Altyn Tagh Fault (ATF) and other four immature subsidiary faults (i.e., Tashikule Fault, Muzitage-jingyuhe Fault, Heishibeihu Fault, and Woniuhu Fault). A 2D elastic screw dislocation model was used to interpret the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) velocity profiles, which revealed the following results. (a) The oblique movement is partitioned between left-lateral slip at a rate of 6.3 ± 1.4 mm/y on the ATF and 5.9 ± 2.8 mm/y on the subsidiary faults. The low slip rate of the ATF indicates that the ATF does not drive the northeastward extrusion of material, with most of the extrusion occurring in the eastern interior of the plateau and the four subsidiary faults localizing the oblique convergence partitioned in the west. This can reasonably explain why catastrophic earthquakes and rapid slip do not occur all over along the ATF. (b) Based on the four subsidiary faults accommodating the oblique movement and the traces amalgamation with the EKLF (delineated Bayan Har plate boundary to the northeast), we concluded guardedly that the four subsidiary faults are the evoluting plate boundary of the Bayan Har block to the northwest. (c) The Tanan top-up structure had an uplift rate of ~0.6 mm/y at the south of the Tarim Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Along the margins of orogenic plateaus, the viscous Earth structure and fault geometries play a primary role in controlling the tectonic evolution and earthquake generation. After the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, the long-standing debate regarding the tectonics producing and maintaining prominent topography across the Longmen Shan reignited. Post-seismic deformation, representing the surface strain history in response to lithospheric stress perturbations, provides important insights into the lithospheric rheology and active structures. Here, we construct a new 3-D post-seismic deformation model for the Wenchuan earthquake, invoking viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip. Our best-fitting model indicates that the steady-state viscosities of the lower crust in the region to the immediately west of the Songpan-Ganzi terrane and beneath the Songpan-Ganzi terrane are estimated to be 4.0 × 1018 and 1.0 × 1018 Pa s, respectively. Our results, combining geophysical and geodetic observations and model analyses, highlight the prevalent parallelism between the rheological and structural boundaries of the lower crust, which diverge northward away from the trend of the Longmen Shan fault at ∼20°. This diverging rheological structure and the partially coupled upper and lower crust have broad implications for the stress build-up, strain partitioning and deformation styles along the eastern Tibetan Plateau margin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo earthquake (eastern Tibetan Plateau), with a surface deformation zone that is characterized by multiple distinct surface rupture segments separated by segments with no surface ruptures, provides an excellent opportunity to constrain the strain threshold (minimum strain) for the formation of surface ruptures. Through sub‐pixel correlation of pre‐ and post‐event SPOT‐6/7 satellite images (pixel = 1.5 m), we derive surface displacement and shear‐strain fields of the Maduo earthquake. By quantifying the minimum shear strain along the surface rupture segments and the maximum shear strain along the segments with no surface ruptures, we estimate a rupture strain threshold, which ranges from 0.8% to 1.8% and appears to decrease with structural maturity of the causative fault. This threshold is generally consistent with a rupture strain limit (0.5%–1.5%) of intact rocks from laboratory measurements, and is higher than a commonly‐assumed strain threshold (0.5%) for inelastic deformation. Plain Language Summary: During large earthquakes, two sides of the fault dislocate relative to each other and create a narrow surface deformation zone in between. Whether surface rupture can be produced depends on the strain, a unitless measurement of deformation, within the surface deformation zone. For natural earthquakes, the minimum strain that is needed to create surface rupture (the rupture strain threshold) has not yet been determined. Here we investigate such strain for the surface rupture of 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo earthquake at the eastern Tibetan Plateau. By analyzing the Maduo coseismic surface strain field and its correlation with spatial extent of the coseismic surface rupture, we determine that the rupture strain threshold ranges from 0.8% to 1.8%, and it appears to decrease with structural maturity of the causative fault. This threshold is generally consistent with a rupture strain limit (0.5%–1.5%) of intact rocks from laboratory measurements, and is higher than a commonly‐assumed strain threshold (0.5%) for inelastic deformation. Our study, for the first time, provides a direct measurement of rupture strain threshold based on natural earthquake studies. Key Points: We derive the 2021 Maduo coseismic surface displacement and strain fields through sub‐pixel correlation of SPOT‐6/7 optical imagesThe strain threshold for the formation of Maduo surface rupture is 0.8%–1.8%, and it appears to decrease with the causative fault maturityThis value is consistent with a laboratory‐derived rupture threshold 0.5%–1.5% and is higher than a commonly‐assumed inelastic threshold 0.5% [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake forecasting aims to determine the likelihood of a damaging earthquake occurring in a particular area within a period of days to months. This provides ample preparation time for potential seismic hazards, resulting in significant socioeconomic benefits. Surface and atmospheric parameters derived from satellite thermal infrared observations have been utilized to identify pre-earthquake anomalies that may serve as potential precursors for earthquake forecasting. However, the correlation between these anomalies and impending earthquakes remains a significant challenge due to high false alarm and missed detection rates. To address this issue, we propose a spatially self-adaptive multiparametric anomaly identification scheme based on global strong earthquakes to establish the optimal recognition criteria. Each optimal parameter exhibits significant spatial variability within the seismically active region and indicates transient and subtle anomaly signals with a limited frequency of occurrences (<10 for most regions). In comparison to the fixed criterion for identifying anomalies, this new scheme significantly improves the positive Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) values from ~0.03 to 0.122–0.152. Additionally, we have developed a multi-parameter anomaly synthesis method based on the best MCC value of each parameter anomaly. On average, the MCC increased from 0.143 to 0.186, and there are now more earthquake-prone regions with MCC values > 0.5. Our research emphasizes the critical importance of a multiparametric system in earthquake forecasting, where each geophysical parameter can be assigned a distinct weight, and the findings specifically identify OLR, including all-sky and clear-sky ones, as the most influential parameter on a global scale, highlighting the potential significance of OLR anomalies for seismic forecasting. Encouraging results imply the effectiveness of utilizing multiparametric anomalies and provide some confidence in advancing our knowledge of operational earthquake forecasting with a more quantitative approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strain partitioning between strike-slip faults in mountains and thrust faults in the foreland is a typical mountain building process to accommodate oblique plate convergence. Studying the geometry and movement of such strain-partitioned fault systems is key to understanding the mountain building process and related seismic hazards. The 2022 M w 6.6 Menyuan earthquake is the largest strike-slip earthquake to have ruptured the northern Qilian Shan fault system in the modern geodetic era. We combined satellite and field observations to determine the fault geometry and coseismic slip distribution in the Menyuan earthquake, and link the distribution of coseismic slip with the pattern of interseismic strain accumulation within the northern Qilian Shan from our geodetic slip model. We find that the Menyuan earthquake ruptured a 25 km-long section of the left-lateral Longlongling Fault between the surface and 7 km depth. The maximum slip was 4 m at 3–4 km depth. Damage to a high-speed railway tunnel recorded a fault offset of 2.7 m at a depth of 200 m compared to 2.5–3.0 m on the surface, suggesting that dispersion of the rupture through unconsolidated shallow sediments was limited, at least at the tunnel site. We also determined the pattern of interseismic deformation prior to the earthquake using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Navigation Satellite System data. We found the interseismic geodetic data can be explained by the oblique movement of a low-angle décollement beneath the Qilian Shan rather than a strain partitioning fault system. We suggested that the strike-slip faults and foreland thrusts are separated by a creeping décollement, which would act as a barrier to stop the cascading rupture of the strike-slip and thrust fault. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southeastern (SE) Tibet is one of the most seismically active regions in mainland China, but the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling that quantifies seismic hazard is unknown along most major faults. In this study, we constructed an elastic block model to invert Global Positioning System data for slip rates and locking coefficients along 20 major faults in SE Tibet. Our results identify 27 strongly coupled fault segments with locking coefficients >0.5, defined as potential seismogenic asperities, extending laterally for 36–330 km. Quantitative calculations of seismic moment budgets on these seismogenic asperities indicate that they are capable of generating Mw 6.4–7.7 earthquakes in the next few decades, of which the Anninghe, Daliangshan and Red River faults have the potential for Mw ≥ 7.5 earthquakes. The interseismic coupling model provides a component for probabilistic analysis of future seismic hazards in densely populated Southwest China. Plain Language Summary: In the period between earthquakes, crustal faults are either partially to fully stuck or slipping freely. In the former case, plate movement can cause a buildup of energy on the fault plane and eventually be released through earthquakes. Using Global Positioning System (GPS) to measure the movement of the Earth's surface, we can use models of crustal deformation to identify where and how quickly faults are accumulating energy and then make reasonable predictions about the locations and magnitudes of future earthquakes. Based on the above principles, in this study, we use GPS measurements to suggest the locations and magnitudes of potential earthquakes on 20 major faults in southeast Tibet, which includes most of the Sichuan and Yunnan provinces in southwestern China. We find that 27 fault segments with lengths of 36–330 km are stuck to some degree and accumulating energy. Currently, the accumulated energy can produce earthquakes of Mw 6.4–7.7, highlighting the severity of earthquake hazards in Southwest China. Key Points: We obtained a unified interseismic coupling model for 20 major fault systems in southeastern TibetWe identify 27 seismogenic asperities with locking coefficients >0.5 that could host Mw 6.4–7.7 earthquakesThe interseismic coupling model provides a component for probabilistic analysis of future seismic hazards in Southwest China [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strain accumulation in foreland zones is important for understanding mountain‐building processes and seismic hazards. Material heterogeneity in this border zone, particularly the contrast between sedimentary cover and basement, affects strain accommodation and fault behavior. One manifestation of this effect is depth separation of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR)‐derived slip models and corresponding aftershock clusters; hypotheses for this vertical separation remain controversial. In this study, we investigated strain accumulation in the Kalpin fold‐and‐thrust belt (KFTB) of southwestern Tian Shan, China, using the integration of InSAR measurements, teleseismic body‐waves, near‐field strong motion data (SM), and relocated aftershocks of the 2020 Mw 6.0 Kalpin earthquake. The SM modeling and analysis of post‐seismic InSAR time series are performed for the first time for this earthquake. Our results confirm a vertical separation of the mainshock and aftershock cluster, with the former on a weak décollement and the latter on faults within the basement. InSAR time series analysis shows that post‐seismic deformation was dominated by afterslip on a splay fault directly above the ruptured décollement. Static stress transfer of co‐seismic rupture cannot explain these observations. We speculate that fluid flow and high pore pressure along pre‐existing fault planes may have reduced the fault strength and been involved in the evolution of this aftershock cluster. We conclude that compressive strain in the KFTB is accommodated by a mixture of thin‐ and thick‐skin faulting and seismic deformation across the entire crustal thickness. Specifically, we suggest that the observed shortening is partly accommodated by infrequent large earthquakes on the weak décollement. Plain Language Summary: In foreland areas, strain can be accommodated by earthquakes, aseismic slip, or both. The contrasting material properties of the sediment and basement certainly affects this process, for example, the depth separation of different fault behavior. However, it is unclear how the fault behavior varies in depth from basement to weak sediment throughout different stages of the seismic cycle. 2020 Mw 6.0 Kalpin earthquake occurred in Kalpin fold‐and‐thrust belt, southwestern Tian Shan provides some insight on this matter. Here, we combined Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, aftershock relocation, teleseismic body‐waves, and strong motion data to investigate the strain release behavior during and immediately after the earthquake. We found that strain release behavior differs between sediment and basement during and immediately after the earthquake. The mainshock ruptured the weak décollement and the aftershocks were primarily rooted in the basement, while the transient afterslip was mainly distributed in the sediments. Two findings are worth noting: (a) the afterslip occurred on a fault, whose stress was partially unloaded during the earthquake, suggesting the fault strength was reduced, and (b) the earthquake rupture of the décollement highlights how destructive earthquakes can initiate on the weak décollement. Key Points: The moderate 2020 Mw 6.0 Kalpin earthquake was initiated on a weak décollement in southwest Tian ShanSeismological data and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar postseismic time series analysis confirm a vertical separation of the mainshock and aftershocksCombination of thin‐skin and thick‐skin deformation processes throughout the different stages of the seismic cycle [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 5 September 2022 Mw 6.7 Luding earthquake occurred on the Moxi segment of the highly active Xianshuihe fault in eastern Tibet. Here, we constrain the coseismic slip by jointly inverting the coseismic displacements measured by Global Positioning System, seismometer and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar. Along the Moxi fault, concentrated left‐lateral strike slip extends ∼30 km along the strike above 10 km depth, producing 0.7–1.0 m shallow slip. Clustered aftershocks and slip inversions suggest that the secondary conjugate Mozigou fault may also involve the rupture. Southward rupture propagation is likely arrested by the barrier‐like fault segments of the Xianshuihe fault, characterized by high interseismic coupling (>0.6) and reduced shear stress rate (<1 kPa/yr) due to interactions with surrounding large locked asperities. The distribution of aftershocks is highly correlated with the positive coseismic Coulomb failure stress changes , which bring the adjacent asperities on the Anninghe and Daliangshan faults ∼0.2 MPa closer to failure. Plain Language Summary: The Mw 6.7 Luding earthquake occurred in eastern Tibet on 5 September 2022, causing 93 casualties and 25 people missing, and substantial damage in the epicentral regions. In this study, we derive the static coseismic displacements from Global Positioning System, seismometer and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observations. We jointly invert these datasets for the coseismic slip distribution. Our results reveal that the coseismic slip is likely distributed on the conjugate Moxi and Mozigou faults, with the primary slip concentrated on the Moxi fault. We compare the coseismic slip with both the interseismic coupling distribution and shear stress rate on the Moxi fault. We find that the southward coseismic rupture termination is spatially coincident with the areas undergoing a low pre‐earthquake shear stress rate and a high interseismic coupling. The comparison suggests that the coseismic slip during the Luding earthquake is likely controlled by pre‐earthquake interactions with surrounding locked zones on the Anninghe and Daliangshan faults (DLS). We calculate the coseismic Coulomb failure stress changes and demonstrate that the aftershocks could be explained by the induced positive stress perturbations. We conclude that the Luding mainshock enhances earthquake hazards on the Anninghe and DLS. Key Points: Global Positioning System, seismometer, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar measurements reveal concentrated coseismic slip extending 30 km on the Moxi fault at 0–10 km depthInteractions with large locked asperities lower the shear stress rate to the south of earthquake and lead to the arrest of coseismic ruptureThe Luding event brought the Anninghe and Daliangshan faults ∼0.2 MPa closer to failure, representing enhanced earthquake hazard [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We obtained the rupture process and slip distribution of the 2022 Mw6.6 Menyuan earthquake by jointly inverting accelerogram data and InSAR measurements. The near-field InSAR measurements provide good constraints on the shallow slip distributions (<6 km). The accelerogram data enable us to better resolve the deeper coseismic slip (>6 km). The combination of two types of data provided improved constrains on slip distribution of the 2022 Menyuan earthquake. The results from joint inversion of InSAR and accelerogram data reveal a 26-km-long rupture length, which roughly agrees with the mapped length from the optically identified surface rupture trace and the InSAR deformation field. We imaged a major asperity with a dimension of 14 × 6 km at 4 km depth updip of the hypocenter. The maximum slip is estimated to be 3.8 m at 4 km depth. The duration of the 2022 Menyuan earthquake is ~14 s, and 90% of the seismic moment is released in the first 10 s. The total seismic moment is estimated to be 1.31 × 1 × 1019 N·m, equivalent to a moment magnitude of Mw6.7. Our results highlight that the moderate but shallow rupture during the 2022 Menyuan earthquake could intensify the seismic damage on the surface, confirmed by field investigations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pre-seismic anomalies have the potential to indicate imminent strong earthquakes in the short to medium terms. However, an improved understanding of the statistical significance between anomalies and earthquakes is required to develop operational forecasting systems. We developed a temporal integrated anomaly (TIA) method to obtain the temporal trends of multiparametric anomalies derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) product before earthquakes. A total of 169 global earthquakes that occurred from 2006 to 2020 and had magnitudes of ≥7.0 and focal depths of ≤70 km were used to test this new method in a retrospective manner. In addition, 169 synthetic earthquakes were randomly generated to demonstrate the suppression capacity of the TIA method for false alarms. We identified four different TIA trends according to the temporal characteristics of positive and negative TIAs. Long-term correlation analyses show that the recognition ability was 12.4–28.4% higher for true earthquakes than for synthetic earthquakes (i.e., higher than that of a random guess). Incorporating 2–5 kinds of TIAs offered the best chance of recognizing imminent shocks, highlighting the importance of multiparameter anomalies. Although the TIA trend characteristics before the earthquakes were not unique, we identified certain unexplained pre-seismic phenomena within the remote sensing data. The results provide new insight into the relationships between pre-seismic anomalies and earthquakes; moreover, the recognition ability of the proposed approach exceeds that of random guessing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the northern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau, the long Altyn Tagh fault (ATF) controls the regional tectonic environment, and the study of its long-term fault slip rate is key to understanding the tectonic evolution and deformation of the northern Tibetan Plateau. In this paper, we measure the fault slip rate of the western segment of the ATF using InSAR observations between 2015 to 2020. The Multi-Temporal Interferometric InSAR analysis is applied to obtain the two-dimensional fault-parallel and vertical displacement fields. The spatially dense InSAR observations clearly illustrate the asymmetrical pattern of displacement fields across the fault. Constrained by our InSAR observations, the fault slip rate and locking depth of the western segment of the ATF are inverted using four different models in a Bayesian framework. The two-layer viscoelastic model incorporating lateral heterogeneity of rheology in the lower crust indicates that the fault slip rate of the western ATF is estimated to be 9.8 ± 1.1 mm/yr (at 83.8°E across the ATF) and 8.6 ± 1.1 mm/yr (at 85.1°E), respectively, and the locking depth is 15.8 ± 4.3 km and 14.8 ± 4.9 km. Our new estimates generally agree with the previous estimates of fault slip rate constrained by GPS observations. We conclude that the contrast between the thickness of the elastic layer and the shear modulus of the Tibetan plateau and the Tarim basin jointly contribute to the asymmetric interseismic strain accumulation on the ATF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We derived the joint slip models of the three major events in the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence by inverting strong-motion and InSAR datasets. b-values and the historic earthquake scarp offset were also investigated after processing the earthquake catalog and near-field digital elevation model data. The three major events gradually released seismic moments of 1.6 × 1018 Nm (Mw 6.1), 1.5 × 1018 Nm (Mw 6.1), and 1.1 × 1019 Nm (Mw 6.7), respectively. All the ruptures exhibit both updip and along-strike directivity, but differ in the along-strike propagation direction. The high b-value found beneath three mainshock hypocenters suggests possible fluid intrusions, explaining the cascading earthquake behavior. The cumulative surface scarp from past earthquakes shows rupturing features that are consistent with the 2016 earthquake sequence, suggesting a characteristic fault behavior. Under the assumption of the Gutenberg–Richter law, the slip budget closure test gives a maximum magnitude of Mw 6.7 and implies the seismic hazard from the largest event has been released in this sequence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focusing on stratified tropospheric delay correction in the small-amplitude coseismic displacement field of small-to-moderate earthquakes (

We combine Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity field with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) results to study the interseismic deformation across the western Altyn Tagh fault (ATF) at longitude 86° E. GPS and InSAR data are consistent after correcting for the contribution from vertical deformation in the InSAR line-of-sight map. InSAR and GPS data identify an area of ∼2 mm a−1 sinistral shear and ∼6 mm a−1 of NS shortening located ∼150 km south of the ATF near the Manyi fault system. Excluding the data located in that area, Bayesian inversion of a 2-D profile across the ATF indicate a locking depth of 14.8 ± 3.5 km and a slip rate of 8.0 ± 0.4 mm a−1, lying at the lower range of previously published estimates. In addition, we find no significant offset between the fault at depth and the surface fault trace and no asymmetry of the interseismic profile that implicitly reveal lateral variations of the elastic strength across the ATF. Detailed analysis of InSAR profile across the fault show no distinguishable surface creep along the western ATF. Our study highlights how different data sets, data selection and model assumption might impact results on the ATF slip rate, locking depth and rheological contrast across the fault. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large‐scale geodetic measurements of crustal deformation in the north‐central Tibetan Plateau are crucial for improved understanding of earthquake‐cycle processes and long‐term seismic hazard assessment. We use GPS velocities and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations (2015–2020) on eight descending and eight ascending Sentinel‐1 tracks to map surface motions and their gradients for an area of over ∼2,000 km × 350 km around the Kunlun‐Manyi fault system. The derived line‐of‐sight (LOS) and 3D velocity fields demonstrate ongoing postseismic transients along the ruptured segments of the 1997 Manyi and 2001 Kokoxili earthquakes, interseismic deformation along locked fault segments, and strain accumulation on a large subsidiary fault (i.e., the Kunlun Pass fault). We use elastic dislocation and analytical postseismic deformation models constrained by our dense InSAR measurements to quantify the interseismic and postseismic contributions, which reveal the along‐fault distribution of fault slip rate and locking depth along the entire length of the fault. The results indicate that the slip rate of the Kunlun fault systematically decreases toward the west to the west of the Taiyang Lake fault. We also find that the interseismic strain accumulation rate along the main trace of the Kunlun fault is to first‐order spatially constant (0.1–0.15 microstrain/yr), except around its restraining bend. As the historically unruptured segments, especially the eastern segments (from 95°E to 101°E) of the Kunlun fault, have relatively fast slip rates and high locking depths (>15 km), they have the potential to generate large and damaging earthquakes in this region. Plain Language Summary: On the north‐central Tibetan plateau, the ∼2,000‐km‐long Kunlun fault, characterized by rapid long‐term fault slip rates (8–12 mm/yr), and its subsidiary faults represent substantial earthquake hazards. However, the spatial variations of deformation and strain accumulation are still poorly understood due to the limited geodetic (i.e., GPS, InSAR) observations on the high plateau. Here, we use the spatially and temporally dense InSAR observations obtained from Sentinel‐1 images to map the large‐scale crustal deformation around the Kunlun fault, during 2015–2020. The derived deformation map covers an area of over ∼2,000 km × 350 km. The results illustrate postseismic deformation along the historically ruptured segments of the 1997 Manyi and 2001 Kokoxili earthquakes and interseismic strain accumulation along locked segments, indicating their potential to generate future earthquakes. Models of interseismic and postseismic deformation reveal the variations of fault slip rate and locking depth along the entire length of the Kunlun fault. We infer that the historically unruptured segments of the Kunlun fault between 95°E and 101°E, with relatively fast slip rates and high locking depths (>15 km), are capable of generating large earthquakes in the future. Key Points: We generate high‐resolution and large‐scale 3D velocity maps for the north‐central Tibetan Plateau from Sentinel‐1 InSAR observationsGeodetic velocity field indicates relatively high strain rate around the restraining bend (∼98°E) of the Kunlun faultLong‐lived postseismic transients following the Manyi and Kokoxili earthquakes are revealed in InSAR velocities during 2015–2020 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to quantify the interseismic coupling along the Xianshuihe‐Xiaojiang fault system (XXFS). Our results confirm 7–11 mm/a of left‐lateral strike‐slip motion along the XXFS. South of the Shimian County, high interseismic coupling is found down to 20 km‐depth along the Anninghe‐Zemuhe fault. A second 130 km‐long section, highly coupled down to 10–15 km‐depth, is identified along the northern Xiaojiang fault. North of the Kangding County, the Xianshuihe fault appears to be predominantly creeping at depth. Previously identified long‐lasting surface creep following the 1973 M 7.6 Luhuo earthquake has now ended, possibly marking the initiation of a new period of stress accumulation and progressive relocking of the fault. Farther south along the fault, we identify a ∼30 km‐long section (∼30.2°–30.4°N) creeping at ∼7 mm/yr. Furthermore, creep accelerated by ∼2 mm/yr during the 2008–2014 period, possibly as a result of the static Coulomb failure stress increment induced by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, that occurred ∼200 km northeast of it. The 2014 Mw 5.9 Kangding earthquake occurred along the creeping section at the end of the period of accelerated creep. Finally, taking advantage of the long historical records of past large earthquakes available since 1327, we quantitatively compare the moment budget along the XXFS. Results highlight that along the Anninghe, Zemuhe, and Xiaojiang faults, moment deficit for Mw > 7 earthquakes has now accumulated. Plain Language Summary: More probable location and size of future large earthquakes can be anticipated if we accurately know the present‐day distribution of interseismic fault coupling. Knowing date of the latest large earthquake, one can infer slip deficit and estimate the energy available for forthcoming seismic ruptures. Here, we focus on the Xianshuihe‐Anninghe‐Zemuhe‐Xiaojiang fault system in Tibet, which is the largest strike‐slip fault crossing southwestern China. Historical records attest numerous earthquakes during the last few centuries, but the fault has remained relatively silent in the past few decades. We use GPS data spanning nearly 20 years to investigate the present‐day interseismic fault coupling along the fault system. We find the Anninghe, Zemuhe, and Xiaojiang faults have accumulated enough energy for several Mw > 7 earthquakes. However, our results show that the northern segment called the Xianshuihe fault is not locked, suggesting a relatively low energy accumulation rate and seismic potential, despite a long history of frequent earthquakes. Finally, we identify a new ∼30 km‐long creeping section on the Xianshuihe fault, whose creep rate show a transient behavior, possibly induced by the effect a ∼200 km remote earthquake that occurred in 2008. Key Points: Highly heterogeneous interseismic coupling along the Xianshuihe‐Xiaojiang fault system, with the northern Xianshuihe fault predominantly creeping at depthSurface creep observed during 4 decades after the 1973 M 7.6 Luhuo earthquake has endedA new ∼30 km‐long transient creeping segment on the Xianshuihe fault, with creep rate increasing after the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]