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Accurate commodity price forecasts are crucial for stakeholders in agricultural supply chains. They support informed marketing decisions, risk management, and investment strategies. Machine learning methods have significant potential to provide accurate forecasts by maximizing out‐of‐sample accuracy. However, their inherent complexity makes it challenging to understand the appropriate data pre‐processing steps to ensure proper functionality. This study compares the forecasting performance of Long Short‐Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks (LSTM‐RNNs) with classical econometric time series models for corn futures prices. The study considers various combinations of data pre‐processing techniques, variable clusters, and forecast horizons. Our results indicate that LSTM‐RNNs consistently outperform classical methods, particularly for longer forecast horizons. In particular, our findings demonstrate that LSTM‐RNNs are capable of automatically handling structural breaks, resulting in more accurate forecasts when trained on datasets that include such shocks. However, in our setting, LSTM‐RNNs struggle to deal with seasonality and trend components, necessitating specific data pre‐processing procedures for their removal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Common Agricultural Policy reform 2013–2020 has conditioned 30 per cent of the direct payments to greening requirements. Our study investigates whether one of these requirements, the ecological focus area (EFA) obligation, has led to environmental improvements while preserving farms' economic sustainability. We apply a regression discontinuity design approach on a sample of Italian arable crop farms. Our results suggest that the EFA requirement has no significant effects on farms' application of fertilisers, pesticide expenditure, crop diversification or economic performance. However, farmers reacted to the EFA requirement by changing their crop mix, mostly by increasing their share of leguminous crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the European Union common agricultural policy direct payments on land prices has received substantial attention in recent years, leading to heterogeneous evidence of capitalisation for both coupled and decoupled payments. In this paper, we provide an extensive review of the empirical works addressing this issue econometrically and compare their results through a Bayesian meta-regression model, focussing on the impact of decoupling and its implementation schemes. We find that the introduction of decoupled payments increased the capitalisation rate, although the extent of this increment hinges on the implementation scheme adopted by the member state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Undeveloped land adjacent to urban areas has a strong potential to generate high amenity values to urban dwellers via the adoption of environment-friendly agricultural practices. Yet, there is a lack of specific policy measures tailored to unlock such potential and a scant knowledge of the preferences of the main beneficiaries. Analysis of data from a Choice Experiment in the municipality of Milan based on current policy deliverables shows that a large share of the urban population is willing to pay for specific ecological benefits linked to agricultural practices. Organic farming and land strips sown with wildflowers are the two practices whose ecological benefits are found most desirable. Willingness to pay for a policy intervention is shown to significantly correlate with income class, with low income recipients being more interested in organic farming while those with middle or high income deriving higher benefits from planting fast-growing trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the capitalisation of subsidies in the European Union (EU) regions in the years 2006-2008, the first years after the introduction of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2003 reform that decoupled subsidies from production and attached them to land. For this purpose, we use regional aggregated data and estimate the capitalisation rate upon the entire sample and, in a second stage, splitting the sample according to the implementation regime applied by the different EU Member States (MSs), following the three options introduced by the CAP regulations (historical, regional and hybrid model). We find that between 28 and 52 cents per Euro of additional subsidy capitalise into land prices in MSs that adopted the hybrid and the regional model, respectively. We find as well that subsidies do not capitalise in farmland prices in MSs that adopted the historical model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we analyse EU soybean and maize imports using a demand system borrowed from the differential approach to firm theory. Alongside providing own-price and cross-price (i. e. cross-country) elasticities for these two products, we test whether source-specific characteristics exert any influence on complementarity and substitution patterns between international exporters. Specifically, we look at country differences stemming from supply chain efficiency and the asynchronous approval of Genetically Modified (GM) varieties. We do so by introducing two measurements for such features into a linear demand model specified by Laitinen and Theil (1978). Estimation results suggest that the EU import structure is not affected by differences in supply chain efficiency between overseas suppliers while, depending on the product, asynchronous approval does seem to have an influence. We find that imports of maize are more sensitive than those of soybeans to differences in approval statuses between international exporters and the EU. Since soybean availability is a limiting factor for the EU feed industry, avoiding stock shortages may be a priority for European importers, hence the weaker effect of asynchronous approval. On the other hand, the substantial EU self-sufficiency for maize places more emphasis on product characteristics and prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last two decades the Italian food retail industry has changed considerably also thanks to the liberalization process started with the 1998 retail regulation reform. In this study, we investigate the impact of such reform on the food and beverage consumer price index, controlling for the endogenous nature of the policy adoption across regions, and addressing what changes in food retail structure may have driven those effects. We find that the policy had a mitigating effect on food prices, which can be explained by the change in the number and composition of food stores operating in the Italian market, rather than by the changes in store size and in-store services. We find the policy effects not to be statistically different across regions characterized by different levels of liberalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate the impact of different types of information on participants' willingness-to-pay (WTP) and quantity choices for both beef and soy burger meat. To this end, we conducted a lab experiment to elicit WTP with multiple-price lists and chosen quantities of two products in a basket. Participants were provided with explanatory messages regarding the impact of beef and soy on health and environment before successive rounds of WTP determinations and quantity choices. Results show a weak impact of successive rounds of messages on WTP for both beef and soy, while leading to higher relative variations for chosen quantities. These relative changes in both WTP and quantities are then combined for computing the value of information. Results show a relatively low value of information compared to the expenditure for beef. In the last section of the paper we evaluate the effect of the introduction of a beef burger labeled "Fed without GMO" on WTP and quantity choices. Results underline a weak impact of "Fed without GMO" label on changing participants' preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The empirical literature suggests that farmland prices and rents capitalise agricultural subsidies and that the 2003 reform of the EU Common Agricultural Policy, which decoupled subsidies from production and attached them to land, may have increased the extent of the phenomenon. Employing a farm‐level dataset, the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) for Italy, we investigate this issue while accounting for selectivity, endogeneity and unobserved individual heterogeneity. To understand the impact of the reform we compare the estimates of capitalisation rate for decoupled payments with those for coupled payments. After correcting for unobserved individual heterogeneity and selectivity, our results reveal no capitalisation of coupled payments and only limited capitalisation of decoupled area payments into farmland rents in Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we propose an empirical method for the computation of the Stone–Lewbel (SL) price index for product aggregates, when censored samples with zero expenditures are available from household budget surveys. The proposed technique is based on a regression imputation method that takes into account the price dynamics, therefore, allowing to disentangle the role of demographics from the role of prices in computing the SL index. Our simulations seem to indicate that our method is a valuable alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Northeastern viticultural industry has become a model for the whole Brazil and has been identified as a grape production district. Given the importance of agriculture in the economy of the region our study aims at analysing whether the grape producing activity affects some socio-economic indicators, namely the Theil index, the Human Development Index (HDI) and the unemployment rate over the period 2000-2010. The study is focused on the Northeastern states of Bahia and Pernambuco, two of the poorest and with the highest income inequality among Brazilian States and combines the Difference-in-Differences with the Propensity Score matching method at the municipality level. Results seem to indicate that grape growing plays an important role to guarantee a fairer income distribution. Indeed, the municipalities that grow grape experience a decrease in the level of Theil index by 11.7% compared to the level they would have if they had not participate in grape production. No effect has been found on the HDI and on the unemployment rate. Results are robust to the potential presence of an hidden bias according to the Rosenbaum sensitivity analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we develop a new methodological proposal to incorporate risk into a farm-level positive mathematical programming ( PMP) model. We estimate simultaneously the farm nonlinear cost function and a farmer-specific coefficient of absolute risk aversion as well as the resource shadow prices. The model is applied to a sample of representative arable crop farms from the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy. The estimation results confirm the calibration ability of the model and reveal the values of the individual risk aversion coefficients. We use the model to simulate different scenarios of crop price volatility, in order to explore the potential risk management role of an agri-environmental scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT In recent years, food manufacturers have been devoting a large portion of their R&D budgets to the development of functional foods. Although functional foods exhibit a significant level of information asymmetry, consumers appear to be increasingly appreciative, recognizing their role in preventing or reducing health risks and/or improving other physiological functions. This paper quantifies the willingness to pay of a representative sample of 600 Italian consumers for a hypothetical yogurt using a web-based stated choice experiment. The willingness to pay for two functional attributes (probiotics and catechin enrichment) was measured using the panel data version of a Random Parameters Logit model. The results show that respondents are willing to pay a premium for a catechin-enriched yogurt (0.38 €/jar), which is well above their willingness to pay for the probiotic attribute (0.21 €/jar). Averaging the individual values across sample sub-groups indicates that the willingness to pay for catechin enrichment may be related to age, income, health status, lifestyle and education. [EconLit citation: C25, C93, D12] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mycotoxins contamination in food is a serious source of health risks. This paper evaluates the Italian consumers' perception of the mycotoxins' risk through their willingness to pay (WTP) for a hypothetical bottle of milk obtained by cows fed with, inter alia, maize certified for the "good practices" (GPs) that reduce this risk. Therefore, a web-based stated choice experiment (SCE) has been carried out involving a representative sample of 973 Italian consumers and the WTP has been measured using the panel data version of a Random Parameters Logit (RPL) model. Results show that Italian consumers are willing to pay a 29% average price premium for "reduced-mycotoxins" milk. his premium increases for consumers between 44 and 54 years of age, who are students, have completed tertiary education, are economically well-of and shop fairly infrequently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we evaluate the role of market power by retailers within the supply chain of Parmigiano Reggiano (PR) and Grana Padano (GP), the two most famous Italian quality cheeses. Market power is analysed in the context of a dynamic imperfect competition model of the supply chain, in which retailers are allowed to exert market power both downstream and upstream. We jointly estimate market-power parameters together with supply and demand elasticities, by means of a structural system of demand, supply and price-transmission equations, estimated using the generalised method of moments. We find evidence of downstream market power by retailers (toward final consumers) for PR and GP, but no evidence of upstream market power (toward processors/ripeners). These results may be explained by the structure of the supply chain and by the peculiar characteristics of the two cheeses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article considers the two-way error components model (ECM) estimation of seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) on unbalanced panel by generalized least squares (GLS). As suggested by Biørn (2004) for the one-way case, in order to use the standard results for the balanced case the individuals are arranged in groups according to the number of times they are observed. Thus, the GLS estimator can be interpreted as a matrix weighted average of the group specific GLS estimators with weights equal to the inverse of their respective covariance matrices. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Copyright of Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement is the property of Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of EuroChoices is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper, a quadratic inverse (almost ideal) demand system (IQUAIDS) is derived, that generalizes the inverse (almost ideal) demand system (IAIDS). Starting from a flexible parameterization of the distance function, this model allows a more flexible specification by overcoming the potential restrictiveness of linear scale curves. However, at a point of normalization, the IQUAIDS boils down to the IAIDS, thus the additional flexibility pertains only to the specification of scale elasticities away from the point of approximation. Previous work on functional separability is extended to the case of inverse demands, and necessary and sufficient conditions for weak separability of the direct and indirect utility function derived, in terms of the Antonelli elasticities of complementarity and of the scale elasticities. Their proper parametric representation within the inverse specification is also derived. An empirical application to fish demand in Italy is provided, mainly for illustrative purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the socio-demographic structure of population are considered a determinant of trends in consumption. We estimated a complete demand system for Italy, with emphasis on food demand, using a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) with demographic effects. Our results allow comparison of expenditure elasticities and shares across households, thereby providing insights into the structure of food demand in Italy and confirming that demographic characteristics play a significant role. The QUAIDS specification is superior to the Almost Ideal Demand System specification: this is important, especially if the model is used for simulation and/or forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The hypothesis of direct weak separability of the transformation function places fewer restrictions on production technology than those deriving from alternative multi-stage procedures, based on indirect separability assumptions. We derive an explicit form of the necessary and sufficient conditions for direct weak separability in the multiple output case. These conditions are expressed in elasticity terms, so they can be readily maintained or tested in commonly used flexible functional forms. Parametric restrictions are derived for the multioutput translog profit function. The procedure is applied to the Italian agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since phosphorus (P) is an essential element for life, its usage and application across agricultural production systems requires great attention. Monogastric species such as pigs and poultry can significantly contribute to global food security but these animals remain highly dependent on the supply of mineral inorganic P in their feeds. Pig and poultry, which represent 70% of the global meat production, are also major P excretors and thus represent important sources of environmental P inputs. Balancing the P cycle within farming systems is crucial to achieve P sustainable and resilient livestock production. Therefore, the interconnection of animal feed, livestock farming, manure, and soil/aquatic ecosystems requires multidisciplinary approaches to improve P management. With regard to a sustainable agricultural P cycle, this study addresses aspects of feeding strategies and animal physiology (e.g., phase feeding, P conditioning, liquid feeding, phytase supplementation, genetics), soil agroecosystems (e.g., P cycling, P losses, P gains), reuse and recycling (e.g., manure, slaughter waste), measures of farmers’ economic performance (e.g., bio-economic models), and P governance/policy instruments (e.g., P quota, P tax). To reconcile the economic and ecological sustainability of animal husbandry, the strategic objective of future research will be to provide solutions for a sufficient supply of high-quality animal products from resource-efficient and economically competitive agro-systems which are valued by society and preserve soil and aquatic ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]