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Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a growing problem in children. Children with NAFLD are at potentially high risk for developing T2D; however, the incidence of T2D in this population is unknown. This study aimed to determine the incidence of T2D in children with NAFLD and identify associated risk factors.Children with NAFLD enrolled in the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network were followed longitudinally. Incidence of T2D was determined by using clinical history and fasting laboratory values. Cumulative incidence curves were developed for time to T2D. A Cox regression multivariable model was constructed using best subsets Akaike's Information Criteria selection.This study included 892 children with NAFLD and with a mean age of 12.8 years (2.7) followed for 3.8 years (2.3) with a total 3234 person-years at risk. The incidence rate of T2D was 3000 new cases per 100,000 person-years at risk. At baseline, 63 children had T2D, and during follow-up, an additional 97 children developed incident T2D, resulting in a period prevalence of 16.8%. Incident T2D was significantly higher in females versus males (hazard ratio [HR], 1.8 [1.0-2.8]), associated with BMI z-score (HR, 1.8 [1.0-3.0]), and more severe liver histology including steatosis grade (HR, 1.3 [1.0-1.7]), and fibrosis stage (HR, 1.3 [1.0-1.5]).Children with NAFLD are at high risk for existing and incident T2D. In addition to known risk factors for T2D (female and BMI z-score), severity of liver histology at the time of NAFLD diagnosis was independently associated with T2D development. Targeted strategies to prevent T2D in children with NAFLD are needed.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common pediatric chronic liver disease. Little is known about outcomes in recognized youth. METHODS: We compared paired liver biopsies from 122 of 139 children with NAFLD (74% male; 64% white; 71% Hispanic; mean age, 13 ± 3 years; age range, 8–17 years) who received placebo and standard of care lifestyle advice in 2 double-blind, randomized clinical trials within the nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) clinical research network from 2005 through 2015. We analyzed histologic changes with respect to baseline and longitudinal change in clinical variables using regression analysis. RESULTS: At enrollment, 31% of the children had definite NASH, 34% had borderline zone 1 NASH, 13% had borderline zone 3 NASH, and 21% had fatty liver but not NASH. Over a mean period of 1.6 ± 0.4 years, borderline or definite NASH resolved in 29% of the children, whereas 18% of the children with fatty liver or borderline NASH developed definite NASH. Fibrosis improved in 34% of the children but worsened in 23%. Any progression to definite NASH or in fibrosis occurred in 36% of the children, and both occurred in 11% of the children. Any improvement in NASH or fibrosis occurred in 52%, and both occurred in 20% of children. Type 2 diabetes developed in 5% of the cohort. Any progression to NASH and/or fibrosis was associated with adolescent age, higher waist circumference, levels of alanine or aspartate aminotransferase, total and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol at baseline, increasing level of alanine aminotransferase, and hemoglobin A1C (P < .05). Progression to NASH and/or fibrosis were also associated with increasing level of gamma-glutamyl transferase and development of type 2 diabetes (P < .01). Increasing level of gamma-glutamyl transferase also associated with reduced odds of any improvement (P = .003). CONCLUSIONS: One-third of children with NAFLD enrolled in placebo groups of clinical trials had histologic features of progression within 2 years, in association with increasing obesity and serum levels of aminotransferases and loss of glucose homeostasis.