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2. Observational Evidence for a Regime Shift in Summer Antarctic Sea Ice.

Author

Hobbs, Will, Spence, Paul, Meyer, Amelie, Schroeter, Serena, Fraser, Alexander D., Reid, Philip, Tian, Tian R., Wang, Zhaohui, Liniger, Guillaume, Doddridge, Edward W., and Boyd, Philip W.

Subjects
ANTARCTIC ice, SEA ice, DYNAMICAL systems, SUMMER, RESEARCH personnel, SYSTEMS theory
Abstract

In recent years, the Southern Ocean has experienced extremely low sea ice cover in multiple summers. These low events were preceded by a multidecadal positive trend that culminated in record high ice coverage in 2014. This abrupt transition has led some authors to suggest that Antarctic sea ice has undergone a regime shift. In this study we analyze the satellite sea ice record and atmospheric reanalyses to assess the evidence for such a shift. We find that the standard deviation of the summer sea ice record has doubled from 0.31 million km2 in 1979–2006 to 0.76 million km2 for 2007–22. This increased variance is accompanied by a longer season-to-season sea ice memory. The atmosphere is the primary driver of Antarctic sea ice variability, but using a linear predictive model we show that sea ice changes cannot be explained by the atmosphere alone. Identifying whether a regime shift has occurred is difficult without a complete understanding of the physical mechanism of change. However, the statistical changes that we demonstrate (i.e., increased variance and autocorrelation, and a changed response to atmospheric forcing), as well as the increased spatial coherence noted by previous research, are indicators based on dynamical systems theory of an abrupt critical transition. Thus, our analysis is further evidence in support of a changed Antarctic sea ice system. Significance Statement: In recent years, there have been several summers with extremely low Antarctic sea ice cover, including consecutive record lows in February 2022 and February 2023. Since then, the 2023 winter has seen a remarkably low sea ice growth with an anomaly far below expected climatology. This has led researchers to question whether there has been a regime shift, and we assess the observational evidence for such a shift. In the last decade or so, the variability of summer sea ice has almost doubled, accompanied by a much longer sea ice memory from season to season. These statistical changes, as well an increased spatial coherence noted by other researchers, are consistent with theoretical indicators of a critical transition, or regime shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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9. ADVANCING POLAR PREDICTION CAPABILITIES ON DAILY TO SEASONAL TIME SCALES

Author

Jung, Thomas, Gordon, Neil D., Bauer, Peter, Bromwich, David H., Chevallier, Matthieu, Day, Jonathan J., Dawson, Jackie, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Fairall, Christopher, Goessling, Helge F., Holland, Marika, Inoue, Jun, Iversen, Trond, Klebe, Stefanie, Lemke, Peter, Losch, Martin, Makshtas, Alexander, Mills, Brian, Nurmi, Pertti, Perovich, Donald, Reid, Philip, Renfrew, Ian A., Smith, Gregory, Svensson, Gunilla, Tolstykh, Mikhail, and Yang, Qinghua

Published
2016

13. Remote climate forcing of decadal-scale regime shifts in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems

Author

Greene, Charles H., Meyer-Gutbrod, Erin, Monger, Bruce C., McGarry, Louise P., Pershing, Andrew J., Belkin, Igor M., Fratantoni, Paula S., Mountain, David G., Pickart, Robert S., Proshutinsky, Andrey, Ji, Rubao, Bisagni, James J., Hakkinen, Sirpa M. A., Haidvogel, Dale B., Wang, Jia, Head, Erica, Smith, Peter, Reid, Philip C., and Conversi, Alessandra

Published
2013

38. Theory-guided design and synthesis of multichromophore dendrimers: An analysis of the electro-optic effect

Author

Sullivan, Philip A., Rommel, Harrison, Yi Liao, Olbricht, Benjamin C., Akelaitis, Andrew J.P., Firestone, Kimberly A., Jae-Wook Kang, Jingdong Luo, Davies, Joshua A., Dong Hoon Choi, Eichinger, Bruce E., Reid, Philip J., Antao Chen, Jen, Alex K.Y., Robinson, Bruce H., and Dalton, Larry R.

Subjects
Chromophores -- Electric properties, Chromophores -- Optical properties, Chromophores -- Structure, Dendrimers -- Structure, Dendrimers -- Optical properties, Dendrimers -- Electric properties, Electrooptics -- Research, Chemistry
Abstract

The investigation of multichromophore-containing electro-optic dendritic material demonstrates that the frequently observed asymptotic dependence of electro-optic activity on chromophore number density might be overcome through rational design.

Published
2007

39. Femtosecond pump-probe studies of nitrosyl chloride photochemistry in solution

Author

Cooksey, Catherine C., Johnson, Kevin J., and Reid, Philip J.

Subjects
Photochemistry -- Analysis, Chlorides -- Chemical properties, Dichloropropane -- Chemical properties, Nitrogen compounds -- Chemical properties, Acetonitrile -- Chemical properties, Chloroform -- Chemical properties, Chemicals, plastics and rubber industries
Abstract

A femtosecond pump-study of the primary events of nitrosyl chloride (CINO) photochemistry in solution is presented. Following 266 nm photolysis, the resulting evolution in optical density is measured for CINO dissolved in acetonitrile, chloroform, and dichloromethane.

Published
2006

40. Antiparallel-aligned neutral-ground-state and zwitterionic chromophores as a nonlinear optical material

Author

Yi Liao, Bhattacharjee, Sanchali, Firestone, Kimberly A., Eichinger, Bruce E., Paranji, Rajan, Anderson, Cyrus A., Robinson, Bruce H., Reid, Philip J., and Dalton, Larry R.

Subjects
Chromophores -- Atomic properties, Chromophores -- Chemical properties, Dipole moments -- Analysis, Polarization (Light) -- Analysis, Chemistry
Abstract

A novel approach is developed to simultaneously achieve high first-order hyperpolarizability [beta] values while providing an adjustable dipole moment by linking a strong neutral-ground-state (NGS) nonlinear optical (NLO) chromophore with positive [beta] to a zwitterionic (ZWI) chromophore with negative [beta] in an antiparallel fashion. The results have shown that an antiparallel-aligned NGS chromophore and a zwitterionic chromophore can simultaneously achieve an increase in [beta] and a decrease of the dipole moment.

Published
2006

41. Systematic study of the structure-property relationship of a series of ferrocenyl nonlinear optical chromophores

Author

Yi Liao, Firestone, Kimberly A., Eichinger, Bruce E., Robinson, Bruce H., Haller, Marnie, Jingdong Luo, Kaminsky, Werner, Benedict, Jason B., Reid, Philip J., Dalton, Larry R., and Jen, Alex K. Y.

Subjects
Furans -- Research, Electron donor-acceptor complexes -- Research, Nonlinear optics -- Research, Chemistry
Abstract

A series of nonlinear optical (NLO) chromophores incorporating the ferrocenyl (F) group as an electron donor and 2-dicyanomethylene-3-cyano-4-methyl 1-2,5-dihydrofuran (TCF) derivatives as electron acceptors is discussed. The excellent agreement between the theoretical and experimental beta values demonstrates that a linear relation exists between the hyperpolarizability and the bond length alteration.

Published
2005

43. Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea

Author

Beaugrand, Gregory, Brander, Keith M., Alistair Lindley, J., Souissi, Sami, and Reid, Philip C.

Subjects
Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

Author(s): Grégory Beaugrand (corresponding author) [1, 2]; Keith M. Brander [3]; J. Alistair Lindley [2]; Sami Souissi [1]; Philip C. Reid [2] The Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) has been [...]

Published
2003
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44. Absolute resonance raman intensity analysis of isopropyl nitrate in the condensed phase

Author

McLaughlin, Ryan P., Nyholm, Bethany P., Reid, Philip J., Tenorio, Francisco J., and Martinez, Ana

Subjects
Isopropanol -- Research, Isopropanol -- Magnetic properties, Nitrates -- Research, Nitrates -- Magnetic properties, Chemicals, plastics and rubber industries
Abstract

A study was conducted to describe the first examination of the early-time photo dissociation dynamics of isopropyl nitrate (IPN) in the condensed phase using absolute resonance Raman intensity analysis (RRIA). Comparison of the results in cyclohexane and acetonitrile revealed that the excited-state structural evolution was solvent dependent.

Published
2003

45. Multidimensional infrared signatures of intramolecular hydrogen bonding in malonaldehyde

Author

Tomoyuki Hayashi, Mukamel, Shaul, Reid, Philip J., Tenorio, Francisco J., and Martinez, Ana

Subjects
Vibrational spectra -- Usage, Hydrogen -- Atomic properties, Hydrogen -- Research, Chemicals, plastics and rubber industries
Abstract

Sixth-order anharmonic force field of malonaldehyde along the two proton-transfer double-well coordinates and the four O-H and C=O stretching modes were constructed at the MP2/6-31G(d,p) level. The coherent infrared vibrational spectra were predicted using the virbational eigenstates.

Published
2003

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