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The submarine volcano Axial Seamount has exhibited an inflation predictable eruption cycle, which allowed for the successful forecast of its 2015 eruption. However, the exact triggering mechanism of its eruptions remains ambiguous. The inflation predictable eruption pattern suggests a magma reservoir pressure threshold at which eruptions occur, and as such, an overpressure eruption triggering mechanism. However, recent models of volcano unrest suggest that eruptions are triggered when conditions of critical stress are achieved in the host rock surrounding a magma reservoir. We test hypotheses of eruption triggering using 3-dimensional finite element models which track stress evolution and mechanical failure in the host rock surrounding the Axial magma reservoir. In addition, we provide an assessment of model sensitivity to various temperature and non-temperature-dependent rheologies and external tectonic stresses. In this way, we assess the contribution of these conditions to volcanic deformation, crustal stress evolution, and eruption forecasts. We conclude that model rheology significantly impacts the predicted timing of through-going failure and eruption. Models consistently predict eruption at a reservoir pressure threshold of 12–14 MPa regardless of assumed model rheology, lending support to the interpretation that eruptions at Axial Seamount are triggered by reservoir overpressurization.

Ground deformation observed using near-real time geodetic methods, such as InSAR and GPS, can provide critical information about the evolution of a magma chamber prior to volcanic eruption. Rapid advancement in numerical modeling capabilities has resulted in a number of finite element models targeted at better understanding the connection between surface uplift associated with magma chamber pressurization and the potential for volcanic eruption. Robust model-data fusion techniques are necessary to take full advantage of the numerical models and the volcano monitoring observations currently available. In this study, we develop a 3D data assimilation framework using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach in order to combine geodetic observations of surface deformation with geodynamic models to investigate volcanic unrest. The EnKF sequential assimilation method utilizes disparate data sets as they become available to update geodynamic models of magma reservoir evolution. While the EnKF has been widely applied in hydrologic and climate modeling, the adaptation for volcano monitoring is in its initial stages. As such, our investigation focuses on conducting a series of sensitivity tests to optimize the EnKF for volcano applications and on developing specific strategies for assimilation of geodetic data. Our numerical experiments illustrate that the EnKF is able to adapt well to the spatial limitations posed by GPS data and the temporal limitations of InSAR, and that specific strategies can be adopted to enhance EnKF performance to improve model forecasts. Specifically, our numerical experiments indicate that: (1) incorporating additional iterations of the EnKF analysis step is more efficient than increasing the number of ensemble members; (2) the accuracy of the EnKF results are not affected by initial parameter assumptions; (3) GPS observations near the center of uplift improve the quality of model forecasts; (4) occasionally shifting continuous GPS stations to provide variability in the locations of observations results in better model predictions than utilizing fixed locations when the number of available instruments is limited; (5) spotty InSAR data coverage on the flanks of a volcano due to topographic shadows and/or atmospheric interference does not adversely impact the effectiveness of EnKF if the available coverage is > 50%; and (6) snow or glacial obstruction in the center of uplift can adversely impact EnKF forecasts. By utilizing these strategies, we conclude that the EnKF is an effective sequential model-data fusion technique for assimilating multiple geodetic observations to forecast volcanic activity at restless volcanoes.

The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in the Midwestern United States was the site of several major M 6.8–8 earthquakes in 1811–1812, and remains seismically active. Although this region has been investigated extensively, the ultimate controls on earthquake initiation and the duration of the seismicity remain unclear. In this study, we develop a finite element model for the Central United States to conduct a series of numerical experiments with the goal of determining the impact of heterogeneity in the upper crust, the lower crust, and the mantle on earthquake nucleation and rupture processes. Regional seismic tomography data (CITE) are utilized to infer the viscosity structure of the lithosphere which provide an important input to the numerical models. Results indicate that when differential stresses build in the Central United States, the stresses accumulating beneath the Reelfoot Rift in the NMSZ are highly concentrated, whereas the stresses below the geologically similar Midcontinent Rift System are comparatively low. The numerical observations coincide with the observed distribution of seismicity throughout the region. By comparing the numerical results with three reference models, we argue that an extensive mantle low velocity zone beneath the NMSZ produces differential stress localization in the layers above. Furthermore, the relatively strong crust in this region, exhibited by high seismic velocities, enables the elevated stress to extend to the base of the ancient rift system, reactivating fossil rifting faults and therefore triggering earthquakes. These results show that, if boundary displacements are significant, the NMSZ is able to localize tectonic stresses, which may be released when faults close to failure are triggered by external processes such as melting of the Laurentide ice sheet or rapid river incision.

Active volcanoes pose a constant risk to populations living in their vicinity. Significant effort has been spent to increase monitoring and data collection campaigns to mitigate potential volcano disasters. To utilize these datasets to their fullest extent, a new generation of model-data fusion techniques is required that combine multiple, disparate observations of volcanic activity with cutting-edge modeling techniques to provide efficient assessment of volcanic unrest. The purpose of this paper is to develop a data assimilation framework for volcano applications. Specifically, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is adapted to assimilate GPS and InSAR data into viscoelastic, time-forward, finite element models of an evolving magma system to provide model forecasts and error estimations. Since the goal of this investigation is to provide a methodological framework, our efforts are focused on theoretical development and synthetic tests to illustrate the effectiveness of the EnKF and its applicability in physical volcanology. The synthetic tests provide two critical results: (1) a proof of concept for using the EnKF for multi dataset assimilation in investigations of volcanic activity; and (2) the comparison of spatially limited, but temporally dense, GPS data with temporally limited InSAR observations for evaluating magma chamber dynamics during periods of volcanic unrest. Results indicate that the temporally dense information provided by GPS observations results in faster convergence and more accurate model predictions. However, most importantly, the synthetic tests illustrate that the EnKF is able to swiftly respond to data updates by changing the model forecast trajectory to match incoming observations. The synthetic results demonstrate a great potential for utilizing the EnKF model-data fusion method to assess volcanic unrest and provide model forecasts. The development of these new techniques provides: (1) a framework for future applications of rapid data assimilation and model development during volcanic crises; (2) a method for hind-casting to investigate previous volcanic eruptions, including potential eruption triggering mechanisms and precursors; and (3) an approach for optimizing survey designs for future data collection campaigns at active volcanic systems.

Recent analytical investigations have suggested that magma buoyancy is critical for triggering catastrophic caldera forming eruptions. Through detailed assessment of these approaches, we illustrate how analytical models have been misapplied for investigating buoyancy and are, therefore, incorrect and inconclusive. Nevertheless, the hypothesis that buoyancy is the critical trigger for larger eruptions warrants further investigation. As such, we utilize viscoelastic finite element models that incorporate buoyancy to test overpressure evolution and mechanical failure in the roof due to the coalescence of large buoyant magma bodies for two model cases. In the first case, we mimic empirical approaches and include buoyancy as an explicit boundary condition. In the second set of models, buoyancy is calculated implicitly due to the density contrast between the magma in the reservoir and the host rock. Results from these numerical experiments indicate that buoyancy promotes only minimal overpressurization of large silicic magma reservoirs ( 100 km3) they surpass a rheological threshold where their subsequent evolution is controlled by host rock mechanics. Consequently, this results in a thermomechanical division between small systems that are triggered “internally” by magmatic processes and large systems that are triggered “externally” by faulting related to roof uplift or tectonism. Finally, critical assessment of recent analytical approaches illustrates that care must be used when applying previously derived analytical solutions to ensure that assumptions used in the original formulation are not violated during application to new geologic problems.

Large magma bodies that feed super-eruptions and build batholiths are not instantaneously emplaced. Many accumulate over time scales of 10 5 to 10 6 years as part of magmatic episodes that last 10 7 years and propagate a thermal and magmatic front through the crust to stabilize the reservoirs in the upper crust. This history imposes a rheological and thermodynamic conditioning on the host rocks that sets in motion three feedbacks that promote growth and longevity of large silicic magma reservoirs. Herein we review the development of ideas about the thermomechanical evolution of large silicic magma systems and explore the feedbacks and their implications for the growth, longevity, and evolution of large silicic magma reservoirs. Feedback 1 promotes increasing temperatures and consequent lower viscosities in the host rocks and the development of a ductile halo. Feedbacks 2 and 3 are feedbacks that result from the thermal dependence of the rheological properties of this ductile halo. In feedback 2 low wall rock viscosities lead to dissipation of strain in the host rocks reducing the likelihood of eruption. Feedback 3 is a negative loop between volume change and pressurization also reducing the likelihood of wall rock failure and eruption. We show that these feedbacks are most pronounced in larger reservoirs (> 500 km 3 ) and conspire to promote reservoir growth. Predicted imprints of these feedbacks are extended melt present lifetimes, complex heterogeneous age records and crystal-rich magma in some large silicic magma reservoirs. In this framework, interruption of the slow steady progress towards viscous death and solidification manifests as a supereruption. Second boiling and recharge (including buoyancy effects) acting in concert or independently lead to roof uplift and extension and eruptions are finally triggered by downward propagating faults from the extended and weakened roof. This connotes a thermomechanical division of calderas into those where eruptions are triggered “internally” by magmatic processes and those that are triggered “externally” by faulting related to roof uplift and attenuation. The division is controlled by size of magma reservoir, although, true to nature, exceptions exist, demonstrating interruption of the feedbacks by other processes like tectonism.

In this study, we utilize thermomechanical models to investigate how magma chambers overpressurize as the result of either magmatic recharge or volatile exsolution. By implementing an adaptive reservoir boundary condition we are able to track how overpressure dissipates as the magma chamber expands to accommodate internal volume changes. We find that the size of the reservoir greatly impacts the resultant magma chamber overpressure. In particular, overpressure estimates for small to moderate-sized reservoirs (1–10 km 3 ) are up to 70% lower than previous analytical predictions. We apply our models to Santorini volcano in Greece where recent seismic activity and ground deformation observations suggested the potential for eruption. The incorporation of an adaptive boundary condition reproduces Mogi flux estimates and suggests that the magma reservoir present at Santorini may be quite large. Furthermore, model results suggest that if the magma chamber is >100 km 3 , overpressures generated due to the high magma flux may not exceed the strength of the host rock, thus requiring an additional triggering mechanism for eruption. Although the adaptive boundary condition approach does not calculate the internal evolution of the magma reservoir, it represents a fundamental step forward from elastic Mogi models and fixed boundary solutions on which future investigations of the evolution of the magma can be built.

We present new analyses of volatile, major, and trace elements for a suite of glasses and melt inclusions from the 85°E segment of the ultra-slow spreading Gakkel Ridge. Samples from this segment include limu o pele and glass shards, proposed to result from CO2-driven explosive activity. The major element and volatile compositions of the melt inclusions are more variable and consistently more primitive than the glass data. CO2 contents in the melt inclusions extend to higher values (167–1596 ppm) than in the co-existing glasses (187–227 ppm), indicating that the melt inclusions were trapped at greater depths. These melt inclusions record the highest CO2 melt concentrations observed for a ridge environment. Based on a vapor saturation model, we estimate that the melt inclusions were trapped between seafloor depths (∼ 4 km) and ∼ 9 km below the seafloor. However, the glasses are all in equilibrium with their eruption depths, which is inconsistent with the rapid magma ascent rates expected for explosive activity. Melting conditions inferred from thermobarometry suggest relatively deep (25–40 km) and cold (1240°–1325 °C) melting conditions, consistent with a thermal structure calculated for the Gakkel Ridge. The water contents and trace element compositions of the melt inclusions and glasses are remarkably homogeneous; this is an unexpected result for ultra-slow spreading ridges, where magma mixing is generally thought to be less efficient based on the assumption that steady-state crustal magma chambers are absent in these environments. All melts can be described by a single liquid line of descent originating from a pooled melt composition that is consistent with the aggregate melt calculated from a geodynamic model for the Gakkel Ridge. These data suggest a model in which deep, low degree melts are efficiently pooled in the upper mantle (9–20 km depth), after which crystallization commences and continues during ascent and eruption. Based on our melting model and the assumption that CO2 is perfectly incompatible, we show that the highest CO2 concentrations of the melt inclusions (∼ 1600 ppm) are consistent with the calculated CO2 concentrations of primary undegassed melts. The highest measured CO2/Nb ratio (443) of Gakkel Ridge melt inclusions predicts a mantle CO2 content of 134 ppm and would result in a global ridge flux of 2.0 × 1012 mol CO2/yr.