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Abstract Accurate prediction of a new compound's pharmacokinetic (PK) profile is pivotal for the success of drug discovery programs. An initial assessment of PK in preclinical species and humans is typically performed through allometric scaling and mathematical modeling. These methods use parameters estimated from in vitro or in vivo experiments, which although helpful for an initial estimation, require extensive animal experiments. Furthermore, mathematical models are limited by the mechanistic underpinning of the drugs' absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination (ADME) which are largely unknown in the early stages of drug discovery. In this work, we propose a novel methodology in which concentration versus time profile of small molecules in rats is directly predicted by machine learning (ML) using structure‐driven molecular properties as input and thus mitigating the need for animal experimentation. The proposed framework initially predicts ADME properties based on molecular structure and then uses them as input to a ML model to predict the PK profile. For the compounds tested, our results demonstrate that PK profiles can be adequately predicted using the proposed algorithm, especially for compounds with Tanimoto score greater than 0.5, the average mean absolute percentage error between predicted PK profile and observed PK profile data was found to be less than 150%. The suggested framework aims to facilitate PK predictions and thus support molecular screening and design earlier in the drug discovery process.

Abstract Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a heterogeneous group of inherited bone dysplasias characterized by reduced skeletal mass and bone fragility. Although the primary manifestation of the disease involves the skeleton, OI is a generalized connective tissue disorder that requires a multidisciplinary treatment approach. Recent studies indicate that application of a transforming growth factor beta (TGF‐β) neutralizing antibody increased bone volume fraction (BVF) and strength in an OI mouse model and improved bone mineral density (BMD) in a small cohort of patients with OI. In this work, we have developed a multitiered quantitative pharmacology approach to predict human efficacious dose of a new anti‐TGF‐β antibody drug candidate (GC2008). This method aims to translate GC2008 pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) relationship in patients, using a number of appropriate mathematical models and available preclinical and clinical data. Compartmental PK linked with an indirect PD effect model was used to characterize both pre‐clinical and clinical PK/PD data and predict a GC2008 dose that would significantly increase BMD or BVF in patients with OI. Furthermore, a physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic model incorporating GC2008 and the body's physiological properties was developed and used to predict a GC2008 dose that would decrease the TGF‐β level in bone to that of healthy individuals. By using multiple models, we aim to reveal information for different aspects of OI disease that will ultimately lead to a more informed dose projection of GC2008 in humans. The different modeling efforts predicted a similar range of pharmacologically relevant doses in patients with OI providing an informed approach for an early clinical dose setting.

Prediction of a new molecule’s exposure in plasma is a critical first step toward understanding its efficacy/toxicity profile and concluding whether it is a possible first-in-class, best-in-class candidate. For this prediction, traditional pharmacometrics use a variety of scaling methods that are heavily based on pre-clinical pharmacokinetic (PK) data. We here propose a novel framework based on which preclinical exposure prediction is performed by applying machine learning (ML) in tandem with mechanism-based modeling. In our proposed method, a relationship is initially established between molecular structure and physicochemical (PC)/PK properties using ML, and then the ML-driven PC/PK parameters are used as input to mechanistic models that ultimately predict the plasma exposure of new candidates. To understand the feasibility of our proposed framework, we evaluated a number of mechanistic models (1-compartment, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK)), PBPK distribution models (Berezhkovskiy, PK-Sim standard, Poulin and Theil, Rodgers and Rowland, and Schmidt), and PBPK parameterizations (using in vivo, or in vitro clearance). For most of the scenarios tested, our results demonstrate that PK profiles can be adequately predicted based on the proposed framework. Our analysis further indicates some limitations when liver microsomal intrinsic clearance (CLint) is used as the only clearance pathway and underscores the necessity of investigating the variability emanating from the different distribution models when providing PK predictions. The suggested approach aims at earlier exposure prediction in the drug development process so that critical decisions on molecule screening, chemistry design, or dose selection can be made as early as possible.

Minimal physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic (mPBPK) models are frequently used to model plasma pharmacokinetic (PK) data and utilize and yield physiologically relevant parameters. Compared with classical compartment and whole‐body physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic modeling approaches, mPBPK models maintain a structure of intermediate physiological complexity that can be adequately informed by plasma PK data. In this tutorial, we present a MATLAB‐based tool for the modeling and simulation of mPBPK models (ATLAS mPBPK) of small and large molecules. This tool enables the users to perform the following: (i) PK data visualization, (ii) simulation, (iii) parameter optimization, and (iv) local sensitivity analysis of mPBPK models in a simple and efficient manner. In addition to the theoretical background and implementation of the different tool functionalities, this tutorial includes simulation and sensitivity analysis showcases of small and large molecules with and without target‐mediated drug disposition.

The dysregulation of inflammation, normally a self-limited response that initiates healing, is a critical component of many diseases. Treatment of inflammatory disease is hampered by an incomplete understanding of the complexities underlying the inflammatory response, motivating the application of systems and computational biology techniques in an effort to decipher this complexity and ultimately improve therapy. Many mathematical models of inflammation are based on systems of deterministic equations that do not account for the biological noise inherent at multiple scales, and consequently the effect of such noise in regulating inflammatory responses has not been studied widely. In this work, noise was added to a deterministic system of the inflammatory response in order to account for biological stochasticity. Our results demonstrate that the inflammatory response is highly dependent on the balance between the concentration of the pathogen and the level of biological noise introduced to the inflammatory network. In cases where the pro- and anti-inflammatory arms of the response do not mount the appropriate defense to the inflammatory stimulus, inflammation transitions to a different state compared to cases in which pro- and anti-inflammatory agents are elaborated adequately and in a timely manner. In this regard, our results show that noise can be both beneficial and detrimental for the inflammatory endpoint. By evaluating the parametric sensitivity of noise characteristics, we suggest that efficiency of inflammatory responses can be controlled. Interestingly, the time period on which parametric intervention can be introduced efficiently in the inflammatory system can be also adjusted by controlling noise. These findings represent a novel understanding of inflammatory systems dynamics and the potential role of stochasticity thereon.

Circadian information is maintained in mammalian tissues by a cell-autonomous network of transcriptional feedback loops that have evolved to optimally regulate tissue-specific functions. An analysis of daily gene expression in different tissues, as well as an evaluation of inter-tissue circadian variability, is crucial for a systems-level understanding of this transcriptional circuitry. Affymetrix gene chip measurements of liver, muscle, adipose, and lung tissues were obtained from a rich time series light/dark experiment, involving 54 normal rats sacrificed at 18 time points within the 24-hr cycle. Our analysis revealed a high degree of circadian regulation with a variable distribution of phases among the four tissues. Interestingly, only a small number of common genes maintain circadian activity in all tissues, with many of them consisting of "core-clock" components with synchronous rhythms. Our results suggest that inter-tissue circadian variability is a critical component of homeostatic body function and is mediated by diverse signaling pathways that ultimately lead to highly tissue-specific transcription regulation.

The environmental fates of pharmaceuticals and the effects of crop protection products on non-target species are subjects that are undergoing intense review. Since measuring the concentrations and effects of xenobiotics on all affected species under all conceivable scenarios is not feasible, standard laboratory animals such as rabbits are tested, and the observed adverse effects are translated to focal species for environmental risk assessments. In that respect, mathematical modelling is becoming increasingly important for evaluating the consequences of pesticides in untested scenarios. In particular, physiologically based pharmacokinetic/toxicokinetic (PBPK/TK) modelling is a well-established methodology used to predict tissue concentrations based on the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion of drugs and toxicants. In the present work, a rabbit PBPK/TK model is developed and evaluated with data available from the literature. The model predictions include scenarios of both intravenous (i.v.) and oral (p.o.) administration of small and large compounds. The presented rabbit PBPK/TK model predicts the pharmacokinetics (Cmax, AUC) of the tested compounds with an average 1.7-fold error. This result indicates a good predictive capacity of the model, which enables its use for risk assessment modelling and simulations.

Circadian clocks, present in almost all cells of the body, are entrained to rhythmic changes in the environment (e.g. light/dark cycles). Genes responsible for this timekeeping are named core-clock genes, which through transcriptional feedback interactions mediated by transcription factor binding to Ebox/RRE/Dbox elements can generate oscillatory activity of their expression. By regulating the transcription of other clock-controlled genes (CCGs) circadian information is transmitted to tissue and organ levels. Recent studies have indicated that there is a considerable variability of clock-controlled gene expression between tissues both with respect to the circadian genes that are regulated and to their phase lags. In this work, a mathematical model was adapted to explore the dynamics of core-clock and clock-controlled genes measured in four tissues of the rat namely liver, muscle, adipose, and lung. The model efficiently described the synchronous rhythmicity of core-clock genes and further predicted that their phases are mainly regulated by Per2 and Cry1 transcriptional delays and Rev-Erba and Cry1 degradation rates. Similarly, after mining databases for potential Ebox/RRE/Dbox elements in the promoter region of clock-controlled genes, the phase variabilities of the same genes between different tissues were described. The analysis suggests that inter-tissue circadian variability of the same clock-controlled genes is an inherent component of homeostatic function and may arise due to different transcription factor activities on Ebox/RRE/Dbox elements.