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Government economic policy regarding the financial markets in the United States has been focused on promoting self-regulation based on a belief in natural equilibrium. This has led to decreased regulation and permitted an increase in the complexity of financial assets that has to some degree exceeded the capability of the market to understand the fundamentals of what is being traded. This lack of understanding or information about these assets' values created liquidity problems, and contributed to the crises seen in both US and world markets. Through the use of an agent-based simulation model of an economic market, this paper looks at the effect of information on keeping the markets liquid and at potential strategies to protect markets from illiquidity failure. It considers how the three main government controlled market influences: interest rate targeting, ‘information’ regulation, and market making can affect market stability. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

An agent-based model (ABM) has a structure, which includes a set of agents, a topology and an environment. A simplified conception of a financial market includes a set of market participants, a trading mechanism, and a set of securities. In a typical ABM of a financial market, the market participants are agents, the market mechanism is the topology and the exogenous flow of information into the market is the environment. A zero-intelligence ABM model of the E-Mini Futures Market is presented. Several classes of agents are characterized by their speed and placement of orders within the limit order book. The proposed minimum quote life rule is implemented in the simulation. The minimum quote life rule prevents new orders from being cancelled or modified before a given time limit. Through experimentation, tradeoff curves are generated. Thereby, illustrating the usefulness of this ABM and its ability to inform ongoing financial policy debates. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We propose a zero-intelligence agent-based model of the E-Mini S&P 500 futures market, which allows for a close examination of the market microstructure. Several classes of agents are characterized by their order speed and order placement within the limit order book. These agents' orders populate the simulated market in a way consistent with real world participation rates. By modeling separate trading classes the simulation is able to capture interactions between classes, which are essential to recreating market phenomenon. The simulated market is validated against empirically observed characteristics of price returns and volatility. We therefore conclude that our agent based simulation model can accurately capture the key characteristics of the nearest months E-Mini S&P 500 futures market. Additionally, to illustrate the applicability of the simulation, experiments were run, which confirm the leading hypothesis for the cause of the May 6th 2010 Flash Crash. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Electronic markets have emerged as popular venues for the trading of a wide variety of financial assets, and computer based algorithmic trading has also asserted itself as a dominant force in financial markets across the world. Identifying and understanding the impact of algorithmic trading on financial markets has become a critical issue for market operators and regulators. We propose to characterize traders' behavior in terms of the reward functions most likely to have given rise to the observed trading actions. Our approach is to model trading decisions as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), and use observations of an optimal decision policy to find the reward function. This is known as Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL), and a variety of approaches for this problem are known. Our IRL-based approach to characterizing trader behavior strikes a balance between two desirable features in that it captures key empirical properties of order book dynamics and yet remains computationally tractable. Using an IRL algorithm based on linear programming, we are able to achieve more than 90% classification accuracy in distinguishing High Frequency Trading from other trading strategies in experiments on a simulated E-Mini S&P 500 futures market. The results of these empirical tests suggest that High Frequency Trading strategies can be accurately identified and profiled based on observations of individual trading actions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]