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Marine fauna, including coral reefs, exist under particular oceanographic and meteorological (metocean) processes that maintain water quality within the range limits to which they have adapted over millennia. Climate‐induced changes to these metocean processes could alter ambient marine water quality to ranges beyond those limits and at rates faster than species can adapt. Extreme (or marginal) coral reefs, such as those in arid tropical regions, already exist at the limits of their ranges for water quality parameters such as temperature and turbidity. Here, we apply projected anomalies from ensemble climate models to the metocean processes that drive turbidity in the Exmouth Gulf region of north Western Australia where habitats of significant environmental value exist. We also apply projected sea surface temperature anomalies to look at how a combined effect of turbidity and temperature might impact important habitats. We find that turbidity is predicted to increase in some parts of the Gulf and decrease in others due to differing metocean drivers of turbidity throughout the region. Temperature anomalies reveal year‐round increases in temperature consistent with current summer marine heat wave events (>2.5°C above mean temperatures). Climate models used in the predictions varied between themselves underscoring the importance of model choice and of using ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australian scientists are world leaders in developing robust palaeo-environmental reconstructions from coral archives, relevant for understanding Australian climate extremes. The key issues for advancing this field are the need for high-resolution marine paleoclimate records to place the present in the context of past natural climate and sea level change, and to understand the impact of those changes on marine ecosystems. We call for sustained investment in paleoclimate science, infrastructure, and personnel to advance these critical areas of research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palaeoclimate research relevant to marine systems in Australia includes the collection and analysis of: (a) shallow-water and deep-sea corals, which provide high-resolution archives, (b) deep-sea sediment and ice cores, which span longer time scales, and (c) palaeoclimate modelling, which gives us insights into mechanisms, dynamics and thresholds underlying past climate states. Palaeoclimate research in Australia is mature and well recognised internationally. To further advance Australian palaeoclimate research, we must address major challenges that include insufficient research vessel access, insufficient targeted research funding, as well as the lack of a well funded national centre to coordinate research efforts (e.g. academic institution or ARC Centre of Excellence for Palaeoclimate Research). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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