1. The Bipolarity Paradox: A Preliminary Assessment of the Implications of the Strengthening China-Russia “Quasi-Alliance” for the Korean Peninsula.
- Author
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Goldstein, Lyle and Kozyrev, Vitaly
- Subjects
RUSSIAN invasion of Ukraine, 2022- ,KOREAN language ,MILITARY invasion ,CHINESE language ,BELT & Road Initiative ,DISCOURSE analysis ,ELITE (Social sciences) - Abstract
Purpose: Scholars have been debating the geopolitical importance of the strengthening China-Russia relationship for some time, noting that the relationship does not constitute a full alliance, but still might have great significance for world politics. This paper aims to improve on this scholarship by examining the evolution of China-Russia cooperation as it relates to the future of North Korea, especially in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Design, Methodology, Approach: This scholarship represents a methodological advance over most previous discussions of the China-Russia relationship. It embraces the historical development of this relationship, probes structural arrangements in relationship to regional stability, and also draws upon extensive Russian and Chinese language data sets which constitute the material for a “discourse analysis,” to achieve a deeper understanding of this relationship as it pertains to the Korean Peninsula. Findings: Overall, this study documents substantial cooperation between Beijing and Moscow with respect to Korean affairs. While some disagreements between China and Russia do exist in this sphere, the main implication of these developments is the trend toward a hardening of the bipolar structure in Northeast Asia, informed by the growing influence of patriotic and nationalistic elite groups within both China and Russia. However, the study points out a paradox in that this hardening of bipolarity could actually help to stabilize the spiraling tensions that have surrounded North Korea in recent decades. Practical Implications: This paper may help students and policymakers alike in Northeast Asia evaluate the significance of the China-Russia quasi-alliance. Overall, this paper supports the conclusion that the dangers of the China-Russia quasi-alliance need not be exaggerated. Originality Value: This paper is innovative insofar as it gives balanced attention to both China’s and Russia’s discourses and policies toward North Korea and evaluates the influence of Moscow-Beijing’s growing cooperation in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, as it may impact the future of North Korea and the wider region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023