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Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of using cheaper-but-noisier outcome measures, such as a short questionnaire, for large simple clinical trials. Background: To detect associations reliably, trials must avoid bias and random error. To reduce random error, we can increase the size of the trial and increase the accuracy of the outcome measurement process. However, with fixed resources, there is a trade-off between the number of participants a trial can enrol and the amount of information that can be collected on each participant during data collection. Methods: To consider the effect on measurement error of using outcome scales with varying numbers of categories, we define and calculate the variance from categorisation that would be expected from using a category midpoint; define the analytic conditions under which such a measure is cost-effective; use meta-regression to estimate the impact of participant burden, defined as questionnaire length, on response rates; and develop an interactive web-app to allow researchers to explore the cost-effectiveness of using such a measure under plausible assumptions. Results: An outcome scale with only a few categories greatly reduced the variance of non-measurement. For example, a scale with five categories reduced the variance of non-measurement by 96% for a uniform distribution. We show that a simple measure will be more cost-effective than a gold-standard measure if the relative increase in variance due to using it is less than the relative increase in cost from the gold standard, assuming it does not introduce bias in the measurement. We found an inverse power law relationship between participant burden and response rates such that a doubling the burden on participants reduces the response rate by around one third. Finally, we created an interactive web-app (https://benjiwoolf.shinyapps.io/cheapbutnoisymeasures/) to allow exploration of when using a cheap-but-noisy measure will be more cost-effective using realistic parameters. Conclusion: Cheaper-but-noisier questionnaires containing just a few questions can be a cost-effective way of maximising power. However, their use requires a judgement on the trade-off between the potential increase in risk of information bias and the reduction in the potential of selection bias due to the expected higher response rates. Key messages: A cheaper-but-noisier outcome measure, like a short form questionnaire, is a more cost-effective method of maximising power in large simple clinical trials than an error free gold standard measure when the percentage increase in noise from using the cheaper-but-noisier measure is less than the relative difference in the cost of administering the two measures. We have created an R-shiny app to facilitate the exploration of when this condition is met at https://benjiwoolf.shinyapps.io/cheapbutnoisymeasures/ Cheaper-but-noisier outcome measures are more likely to introduce information bias than a gold standard but may reduce selection bias because they reduce loss-to-follow-up. Researchers therefore need to form a judgement about the relative increase or decrease in bias before using a cheap-but-noisy measure. We encourage the development and validation of short form questionnaires to enable the use of high quality cheaper-but-noisier outcome measures in randomised controlled trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Banks face liquidity and capital pressures that favor selling off the loans they originate, but loan sales undermine their monitoring incentives. A bank’s loan default history is a noisy measure of its past monitoring choices, which can serve as a reputation mechanism to incentivize current monitoring. In equilibrium, higher reputation banks monitor (weakly) more intensively; if retention is credible, they generally retain less of the loans they originate. Monitoring is difficult to sustain in periods with uncommonly large spikes in loan demand (“booms”), especially for low-reputation banks, which are more likely to accommodate boom demand and forgo monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The book-to-market ratio (B/M) is a noisy measure of expected stock returns because it also varies with expected cashflows. Our hypothesis is that the evolution of B/M, in terms of past changes in book equity and price, contains independent information about expected cashflows that can be used to improve estimates of expected returns. The tests support this hypothesis, with results that are largely but not entirely similar for Microcap stocks (below the 20th NYSE market capitalization percentile) and All but Micro stocks (ABM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I analyze the sensitivity of a firm's investment to its own cash flow in the benchmark case where financing is frictionless. This sensitivity has been proposed as a measure of financing constraints in earlier studies. I find that the investment--cash flow sensitivities that obtain in the frictionless benchmark are very similar, both in magnitude and in patterns they exhibit, to those observed in the data. In particular, the sensitivity is higher for firms with high growth rates and low dividend payout ratios. Tobin's q is shown to be a more noisy measure of near-term investment plans for these firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Managers' incentives to round up reported earnings per share (EPS) cause an underrepresentation of the number 4 in the first post-decimal digit of EPS, or "quadrophobia." We develop a novel measure of aggressive financial reporting practices based on a firm's history of quadrophobia. Quadrophobia is pervasive, persistent, and successfully predicts future restatements, Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement actions, and class action litigation. It is more pronounced when executive compensation is more closely tied to the stock price and when the firm anticipates violating debt covenants. Quadrophobia is especially strong when rounding-up EPS allows firms to meet analyst expectations, and investors seem not to see through this behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the PISA-reported convergence in the performance of private and public schools in Portugal. When PISA sampling weights are used, the number of students enrolled in those types of schools and specific grades/tracks of study differs significantly from official population figures. To account for those differences, we apply a post-stratification adjustment; however, sample sizes are small, resulting in estimates with low precision for several subgroups. We propose recommendations for improving the handling of these issues in future PISA cycles. In an additional analysis, we also account for changes in the composition of the student population. When all factors are considered, the convergence in scores is far less impressive than reported. For instance, in Science, after adjusting the sampling weights and removing population composition effects, the reported convergence of 46 points between private and public schools from 2015 to 2018 amounts to only 9 points. The decomposition and sample adjustment methods used in this paper can be easily adapted to other contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conduct a field experiment to evaluate labor market speeddates where unemployed workers meet temporary employment agencies. Participation in such events increases immediate job finding by six to seven percentage points. Afterwards employment effects diminish, suggesting that temporary employment has no long-lasting effect on employment prospects. While the intervention is cost-effective for the unemployment insurance (UI) administration, higher labor earnings of treated job seekers do not compensate for the decline in benefit payments. Survey evidence shows that speeddate participation increases job search motivation and reduces reservation wages. These findings concur with predictions of a model where job seekers update their labor market beliefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Party system institutionalization (PSI) is regarded as a critical underpinning of democracy. However, the systematic study of PSI in democracies is constrained by weaknesses in existing measures, which are limited in coverage or comprehensiveness, and do not account for the latent nature of the concept, measurement error, and non-random missing data. This article presents a novel measure of PSI that uses a Bayesian latent variable measurement strategy to overcome extant measurement issues. The subsequent measure not only offers unmatched coverage and has demonstrated validity, but also exhibits more robust empirical associations with a range of outcomes related to the performance of democracy than existing measures. The measure should facilitate more integrated research on the causes and consequences of PSI in democracies around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whereas norm-conforming (deontological) judgments have been claimed to be rooted in automatic emotional responses, outcome-maximizing (utilitarian) judgments are assumed to require reflective reasoning. Using the CNI model to disentangle factors underlying moral-dilemma judgments, the current research investigated effects of thinking about reasons on sensitivity to consequences, sensitivity to moral norms, and general action preferences. Three experiments (two preregistered) found that thinking about reasons (vs. responding intuitively or thinking about intuitions) reliably increased sensitivity to moral norms independent of processing time. Thinking about reasons had no reproducible effects on sensitivity to consequences and general action preferences. The results suggest that norm-conforming responses in moral dilemmas can arise from reflective thoughts about reasons, challenging the modal view on the role of cognitive reflection in moral-dilemma judgment. The findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between degree (high vs. low elaboration) and content (intuitions vs. reasons) as distinct aspects of cognitive reflection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the determinants of knowledge flows, proxied by patent citations, within 31 Chinese administrative provinces. Relying on patent data from the US Patent and Trademark Office during the period 1995-2019, we are able to identify 27118 patent citation pairs (focusing only on USPTO patents with first inventors residing in China). In order to explain the number of citations from a Province to another, in addition to geographic and technological proximity, we use factor analysis in order to capture the effect of regional research structure. In particular, we measure the private versus public research intensity of each Chinese administrative province. Our econometric results show that, as expected, geographical and technological distance between Provinces are negatively correlated with patent citations. In addition, we find that Chinese administrative provinces that show bigger intensity with regard to public and to private research both receive more patent citations and cite more other patents in other Provinces. This effect is particularly significant when the two regions are specialized in private research, which indicates a strong effect of cognitive proximity. Finally, and at odds with prior research, we find that controlling for social proximity between Provinces does not impact the effect of geographical and technological proximity. These results, if confirmed by further studies, might have significant policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The goal of this study is to estimate the association between hospital system market share and negotiated prices. Hospital system consolidation has led to many highly concentrated markets where systems can leverage their market share to negotiate higher commercial prices. Recently, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, under its Transparency in Coverage initiative, required health insurers to release all negotiated commercial prices, providing, for the first time, publicly available, nationally representative data on commercial rates. We utilize this newly available data on negotiated prices of healthcare services to show that a hospital with 10% higher market share charges 880-1,180 more per admission. Study design: We used commercial price data for national networks of three large, national insurers and performed a linear regression based on more than 1.3 million negotiated rates across 1,784 hospitals to estimate the association between a hospital's system-level market share and commercial negotiated rates, adjusting for service (DRG), health system, and area level time-invariant characteristics. Results: We find that a one percentage point increase in hospital system market share is associated with an $88 to $118 higher negotiated rate per admission. All else equal, a hospital that is part of a system with a 10-percentage point higher market share can expect from $880 to $1,180 more per admission relative to a hospital with lower system market share (5.4% to 6.2% of the median price). Conclusion: These findings confirm that higher hospital system market share is strongly associated with higher commercial negotiated prices and should aid policymakers and decisionmakers in assessing the impact of various policy options aimed at reducing provider consolidation in the healthcare market. Trial registration: Not applicable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Incorporating data-driven technologies into agriculture presents a promising approach to optimizing crop production, especially in regions dependent on irrigation, where escalating heat waves and droughts driven by climate change pose increasing challenges. Recent advancements in sensor technology have introduced diverse methods for assessing irrigation needs, including meteorological sensors for calculating reference evapotranspiration, belowground sensors for measuring plant available water, and plant sensors for direct water status measurements. Among these, infrared thermometry stands out as a non-destructive remote sensing method for monitoring transpiration, with significant potential for integration into drone- or satellite-based models. This study applies infrared thermometry to develop a crop water stress index (CWSI) model for European hazelnuts (Corylus avellana), a key crop in Oregon, the leading hazelnut-producing state in the United States. Utilizing low-cost, open-source infrared thermometers and data loggers, we aim to provide hazelnut farmers with a practical tool for improving irrigation efficiency and enhancing yields. The CWSI model was validated against plant water status metrics such as stem water potential and gas exchange measurements. Our results show that when stem water potential is below −6 bar, the CWSI remains under 0.2, indicating low plant stress, with corresponding leaf conductance rates ranging between 0.1 and 0.4 mol m2 s−1. Additionally, un-irrigated hazelnuts were stressed (CWSI > 0.2) from mid-July through the end of the season, while irrigated plants remained unstressed. The findings suggest that farmers can adopt a leaf conductance threshold of 0.2 mol m2 s−1 or a water potential threshold of −6 bar for irrigation management. This research introduces a new CWSI model for hazelnuts and highlights the potential of low-cost technology to improve agricultural monitoring and decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study environmental and social (E&S) disclosures in annual reports. Using the word embedding model to examine over 210,000 annual reports from 24,271 public firms in 30 international countries/regions between 2001 and 2020, we create an E&S dictionary that allows us to document trends in annual report E&S disclosure. Specifically, we find: (1) increases in length and boilerplate language and (2) decreases in specificity. Our results also suggest that E&S disclosure quality improves after the adoption of voluntary ESG reporting frameworks but deteriorates after disclosure mandates. Our findings provide systematic evidence on the evolution of E&S disclosure in annual reports over the past two decades and shed light on how voluntary and mandatory standards have shaped global E&S reporting practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many complex networks are built up from empirical data prone to experimental error. Thus, the determination of the specific weights of the links is a noisy measure. Noise propagates to those macroscopic variables researchers are interested in, such as the critical threshold for synchronization of coupled oscillators or for the spreading of a disease. Here, we apply error propagation to estimate the macroscopic uncertainty in the critical threshold for some dynamical processes in networks with noisy links. We obtain closed form expressions for the mean and standard deviation of the critical threshold depending on the properties of the noise and the moments of the degree distribution of the network. The analysis provides confidence intervals for critical predictions when dealing with uncertain measurements or intrinsic fluctuations in empirical networked systems. Furthermore, our results unveil a nonmonotonous behavior of the uncertainty of the critical threshold that depends on the specific network structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the near universe of U.S. consumer credit cards, we show that banks transmit their wholesale funding shocks to consumers by reducing their credit card limits. Credit-constrained consumers who are unable to hedge against the transmitted shock by accessing other credit cards experience a stronger and more persistent reduction in aggregate credit card limits at the consumer level. Consequently, these credit-constrained consumers reduce their aggregate credit card borrowing. Our results document a credit card lending channel for the transmission of adverse bank shocks and show who bears the costs of fragile bank funding structures. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We find that organization capital is negatively related to the cost of bank loans. This finding is robust to additional analyses including those that address omitted variable bias and reverse causality. In addition, we find that organization capital reduces all-in-spread-undrawn. When we decompose the bank loan cost, we find that organization capital increases facility fees due to its risk-engendering characteristics. Finally, we find that organization capital is positively associated with a high likelihood of the presence of inventors and innovation output, consistent with the argument that organization capital is embedded in the key talent within a firm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the onset of COVID-19, research production in economics and finance (measured by the posting of working papers) increased by 29 |$\%$|⁠. Production increases were widespread across geographies, job titles, departments, and ages with larger increases in top departments and for people under the age of 35. Men and women both experienced production increases with the exception of women between the age of 35 and 49, who experienced no production gains despite large increases for men in the same age group. COVID-19 increased reliance on past coauthorship networks, with larger production gains for authors that are more central to the network. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of greenwashing as a corporate strategy on firm risk are not well defined. I construct a greenwashing measure for 3973 companies from 70 countries from 2012 to 2022. Using Dynamic Panel Modeling, I find results suggesting that greenwashing is a complex phenomenon with both positive and negative consequences. While it can improve a firm's public image and potentially enhance its financial performance, it may also lead to increased risk and misallocation of resources. Greenwashing firms have a lower weighted average cost of capital due to a higher debt-to-capital ratio. They are larger, have higher institutional ownership, and lower dividend yields. On the other hand, greenwashing firms have more ESG-related controversies that can hurt firm revenues and market value, they have higher unsystematic risk, and they have lower dividend yields and return on equity. I also find evidence that there is a feedback relationship between ESG ratings and greenwashing. There is no evidence that government mandates on ESG reporting inhibit greenwashing. The implication is that ESG scoring that emphasizes reporting ESG activities while informing investors also encourages greenwashing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do local political party members reflect the views of voters in their constituencies? Since candidate selection by local party members is the most common form of candidate selection in the United Kingdom, it is important to understand local party members' views, and how those views relate to views in the local area. We investigate the degree to which individual members' views match local opinion by combining the results of a large-scale survey of party members in the United Kingdom with estimates of local opinion created using multilevel regression and post-stratification. We find that individual party members' views are moderately to strongly associated with local opinion on both left-right and liberty-authority dimensions. Even so, party members are not entirely congruent with opinion in the local area, having opinions which are either to the left or right of voters in their local area, and which are uniformly more liberal than party supporters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Applying accounting identity in valuation models, we empirically examine how a firm's idiosyncratic volatility depends on its relative value of assets in place and growth options. We find that for a typical firm, idiosyncratic volatility is as sensitive to the relative value of assets in place as to growth options. However, for firms dominated by assets in place (growth options), idiosyncratic volatility is more sensitive to the relative value of assets in place (growth options). Binding irreversibility constraint (uncertainty) makes the effect of assets in place (growth options) more pronounced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of information asymmetry in automobile insurance markets has been studied extensively. However, not all empirical studies found correlation between driver risk and chosen coverage. There are two explanations for this (Cohen and Siegelman 2010): (1) information asymmetry may not characterise environments in which consumers cannot act on private information; (2) most studies measure not risky driver behaviour, but ex post realisations of such behaviour, e.g. claims. In Taiwan's taxi insurance market, insurers cannot freely use rating factors. Usage density (e.g. daily distance), a direct measure of risk, therefore constitutes private information. Using ordinary least squares models, we find that usage density is positively correlated with total premiums. Using logistic models, we find high-density drivers more likely to buy additional policies. Thus, usage density is positively correlated with insurance demand, consistent with the risk-coverage hypothesis. Unlimited-mileage coverage may disproportionately attract high-risk drivers, an argument in favour of usage-based insurance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With COVID-19 vaccination rates remaining below optimal levels, scalable interventions to shift vaccination intentions are needed. We embedded two randomized experiments in South Africa's COVID-19 Vaccine Survey (CVACS) to investigate the potential to change vaccine intentions and behavior. In Experiment 1, 3510 unvaccinated South African adults were randomly assigned to a no-message control group, a social norm message, or a message highlighting that vaccines were free, available and easy to obtain. The free and easy message significantly increased vaccine intentions but did not increase other outcome measures. The social proof message was associated with an increase in self-reported vaccination status at follow-up (not significant at traditional statistical thresholds). In Experiment 2, 3608 unvaccinated South African adults were randomly assigned to a no-message control group, a message highlighting gaining greater freedoms, or a message highlighting being part of the solution to the pandemic. Neither value proposition message increased vaccination intentions. Light-touch and scalable messages informed by behavioral science and social marketing principles may increase vaccination intentions and uptake, However, more attention should be paid to understanding the behavioral barriers experienced by different population segments, and to tailoring and targeting messaging to those barriers and segments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implicit measures were initially assumed to assess stable individual differences, but other perspectives posit that they reflect context-dependent processes. This pre-registered research investigates whether the processes contributing to responses on the race Implicit Association Test are temporally stable and reliably measured using multinomial processing tree modeling. We applied two models—the Quad model and the Process Dissociation Procedure—to six datasets (N = 2,036), each collected over two occasions, examined the within-measurement reliability and between-measurement stability of model parameters, and meta-analyzed the results. Parameters reflecting accuracy-oriented processes demonstrate adequate stability and reliability, which suggests these processes are relatively stable within individuals. Parameters reflecting evaluative associations demonstrate poor stability but modest reliability, which suggests that associations are either context-dependent or stable but noisily measured. These findings suggest that processes contributing to racial bias on implicit measures differ in temporal stability, which has practical implications for predicting behavior using the Implicit Association Test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Prior studies have found that managers adjust operational activities to tackle climate risk. However, the effects of climate risk on accounting practices are largely ignored in the literature. This paper investigates whether and how climate risk influences managers' decision-making on the level of accounting conservatism and explains the results based on two competing channels: valuation demand and contracting demand. Design/methodology/approach: Using firm level climate risk measures, we build a modified Basu (1997) model to conduct our econometric tests. In the baseline model, we use earnings before extraordinary items as the dependent variable, referred to as the earnings model. We control for different levels of fixed effect to identify the shocks of climate risk and mitigate potential concerns on endogeneity and bias in the model. A series of robustness tests provide supporting evidence for our baseline results and our explanation. Findings: Using a sample of 35,832 firm-year observations on listed US firms over the period 2002 to 2019, we find that the perception of climate risk drives managers to choose the less conservative accounting policies. We conclude that the results are consistent with the valuation demand explanation but inconsistent with the contracting demand explanation. Originality/value: The study provides additional evidence on how managers respond to climate risk by adjusting their corporate polices, specifically accounting policies. Our findings contradict the results of prior studies. We explain our results from a unique perspective. Overall, the study provides valuable insights for academics, investors, managers and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discriminatory attitudes towards racial minorities are prevalent throughout society. However, there is mixed evidence of electoral discrimination for racial minority candidates beyond the American context. This paper investigates the effect of racial attitudes on the electoral performance of Canada's New Democratic Party (NDP), by examining the case of Jagmeet Singh, the country's first major federal party leader of color. Relying on three surveys from the Canadian Election Study (2015–2021) and controlling for demographics, ideology, and partisanship, we find voters with more negative attitudes toward racial minorities were significantly: (1) less likely to vote for the NDP under Singh's leadership; (2) more likely to abandon than join the party in his first federal election; and (3) more likely to view Singh negatively than his predecessor. The findings suggest that some racial minority candidates likely face significant electoral penalties, which may contribute to the consistent underrepresentation of racial minorities throughout democracies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The 8-aminoquinolines, primaquine and tafenoquine, are the only available drugs for the radical cure of Plasmodium vivax hypnozoites. Previous evidence suggests that there is dose-dependent 8-aminoquinoline induced methaemoglobinaemia and that higher methaemoglobin concentrations are associated with a lower risk of P. vivax recurrence. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to examine the utility of methaemoglobin as a population-level surrogate endpoint for 8-aminoquinoline antihypnozoite activity to prevent P. vivax recurrence. Methods and findings: We conducted a systematic search of Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library, from 1 January 2000 to 29 September 2022, inclusive, of prospective clinical efficacy studies of acute, uncomplicated P. vivax malaria mono-infections treated with radical curative doses of primaquine. The day 7 methaemoglobin concentration was the primary surrogate outcome of interest. The primary clinical outcome was the time to first P. vivax recurrence between day 7 and day 120 after enrolment. We used multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression with site random-effects to characterise the time to first recurrence as a function of the day 7 methaemoglobin percentage (log base 2 transformed), adjusted for the partner schizonticidal drug, the primaquine regimen duration as a proxy for the total primaquine dose (mg base/kg), the daily primaquine dose (mg/kg), and other factors. The systematic review protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023345956). We identified 219 P. vivax efficacy studies, of which 8 provided relevant individual-level data from patients treated with primaquine; all were randomised, parallel arm clinical trials assessed as having low or moderate risk of bias. In the primary analysis data set, there were 1,747 patients with normal glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity enrolled from 24 study sites across 8 different countries (Indonesia, Brazil, Vietnam, Thailand, Peru, Colombia, Ethiopia, and India). We observed an increasing dose-response relationship between the daily weight-adjusted primaquine dose and day 7 methaemoglobin level. For a given primaquine dose regimen, an observed doubling in day 7 methaemoglobin percentage was associated with an estimated 30% reduction in the risk of P. vivax recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.57, 0.86]; p = 0.0005). These pooled estimates were largely consistent across the study sites. Using day 7 methaemoglobin as a surrogate endpoint for recurrence would reduce required sample sizes by approximately 40%. Study limitations include the inability to distinguish between recrudescence, reinfection, and relapse in P. vivax recurrences. Conclusions: For a given primaquine regimen, higher methaemoglobin on day 7 was associated with a reduced risk of P. vivax recurrence. Under our proposed causal model, this justifies the use of methaemoglobin as a population-level surrogate endpoint for primaquine antihypnozoite activity in patients with P. vivax malaria who have normal G6PD activity. Ihsan Fadilah and colleagues conduct an individual patient data meta-analysis examining the utility and validity of blood methaemoglobin as a surrogate endpoint for recurrent vivax malaria. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Plasmodium vivax causes recurrent malaria due to dormant liver stage parasites. The pro-drugs primaquine and tafenoquine are the only available treatments to prevent relapsing malaria, but their optimal dosing remains unclear. The active metabolites of primaquine and tafenoquine cause predictable increases in blood methaemoglobin; these same metabolites also kill liver parasites. This suggests that increases in blood methaemoglobin could be used as a population-level surrogate endpoint for liver stage parasite killing. What did the researchers do and find?: We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis examining the utility and validity of blood methaemoglobin as a surrogate endpoint for recurrent vivax malaria. We systematically reviewed and pooled the available methaemoglobin and clinical data from patients with P. vivax malaria treated with primaquine over the last 20 years. We fit statistical models to these data to quantify the relationship between day 7 methaemoglobin levels and the risk of recurrent P. vivax malaria. We observed an increasing dose-response relationship between weight-adjusted primaquine dose and methaemoglobin levels measured on day 7. We found that for a fixed primaquine dose regimen, a doubling in day 7 methaemoglobin was associated with an estimated 30% reduction in the risk of vivax recurrence. Using day 7 methaemoglobin levels as a surrogate endpoint for recurrent malaria could reduce sample sizes needed in future studies by about 40% and reduce follow-up duration by 94%. What do these findings mean?: Patients with higher methaemoglobin levels a week after starting primaquine treatment appear to have a lower risk of recurrence. Day 7 methaemoglobin levels can potentially be used as a proxy for later vivax recurrence in exploratory trials, making it more efficient (e.g., fewer volunteers and resources required) to determine whether new drugs or regimens are effective. Study limitations include the inability to determine whether P. vivax recurrences are due to treatment failure, reinfection, or relapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the effect of digital financial reporting on firm productivity. Information frictions represent a constraint that impedes efficient resource allocation and a major source of such frictions stems from the fact that firms' production functions (the conversion from inputs to outputs) are not observable to corporate outsiders. Digital communication of corporate financial data fundamentally changes how firm-specific information is disclosed, released, and disseminated by mitigating information asymmetry between corporate insiders and outsiders and facilitates the processing of such information. We use the staggered implementation of the SEC's Electronic Data Gathering and Analysis Retrieval (EDGAR) system to investigate the impact of digital financial reporting on firms' productivity. We show that the implementation of EDGAR results in an economically meaningful and statistically significant increase on firms' productivity, measured by total factor productivity (TFP). By focusing on the role of information dissemination in coordinating investments and production, our findings provide evidence on the real effects of "going digital" in corporate reporting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the influence of local norm shifts driven by white supremacist ideology on hate crime reporting by US law enforcement agencies. Results show a substantial association, indicating a threefold increase in expected hate crimes reports in counties experiencing a spike in local hate group activity. Specifically, Republican vote share acts as a moderator, reducing reported hate crimes by 23% in counties with strong Republican support and right-wing hate group presence. Adjacent Republican counties also show a 13% reduction in expected reports, suggesting a spillover effect. Beyond local politics, a regional impact is evident; Northeastern counties with higher right-wing hate group presence show a 23% lower incidence rate. Using longitudinal data from the FBI UCR, SPLC, MIT Election Lab, and the US Census (2010–2020), through negative binomial regressions, this study highlights how right-wing hate groups can affect law enforcement's enforcement of general civil rights depending on the local context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of the redundancy of our motor system, movements can be performed in many ways. While multiple motor control strategies can all lead to the desired behavior, they result in different joint and muscle forces. This creates opportunities to explore this redundancy, for example, for pain avoidance or reducing the risk of further injury. To assess the effect of different motor control optimization strategies. a direct measurement of muscle and joint forces is desirable, but problematic for medical and ethical reasons. Computational modeling might provide a solution by calculating approximations of these forces. In this study, we used a full-body computational musculoskeletal model to (a) predict forces measured in knee prostheses during walking and squatting and (b) study the effect of different motor control strategies (i.e., minimizing joint force vs. muscle activation) on the joint load and prediction error. We found that musculoskeletal models can accurately predict knee joint forces with a root mean squared error of <0.5 body weight (BW) in the superior direction and about 0.1 BW in the medial and anterior directions. Generally. minimization of joint forces produced the best predictions. Furthermore, minimizing muscle activation resulted in maximum knee forces of about 4 BW for walking and 2.5 BW for squatting. Minimizing joint forces resulted in maximum knee forces of 2.25 BW and 2.12 BW, that is, a reduction of 44% and 15%, respectively. Thus, changing the muscular coordination strategy can strongly affect knee joint forces. Patients with a knee prosthesis may adapt their neuromuscular activation to reduce joint forces during locomotion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using high‐frequency spending data, we show that household consumption displays excess sensitivity to salient macroeconomic news, even when the news is not real. When the announced local unemployment rate reaches a 12‐month maximum, local news coverage of unemployment increases and local consumers reduce their discretionary spending by 1.5% relative to consumers in areas with the same macroeconomic conditions. Low‐income households display greater excess sensitivity to salience. The decrease in spending is not later reversed. Households in treated areas act as if they are more financially constrained than those in untreated areas with the same fundamentals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polygenic indices (PGI)—the new recommended label for polygenic scores in social science applications—are genetic summary scales often used to represent an individual's liability for a disease, trait, or behavior on the basis of the additive effects of measured genetic variants. Enthusiasm for linking genetic data with social outcomes and the inclusion of premade PGIs in social science data sets have facilitated increased uptake of PGIs in social science research, a trend that will likely continue. Yet most social scientists lack the expertise to interpret and evaluate PGIs in social science research. Here, I provide a primer on PGIs for social scientists focusing on key concepts, unique statistical genetic considerations, and best practices in calculation, estimation, reporting, and interpretation. I summarize recommended best practices as a checklist to aid social scientists in evaluating and interpreting studies with PGIs. I conclude by discussing the similarities between PGIs and standard social science scales and unique interpretative considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide new evidence that mispriced mortgage insurance shifted credit supply and contributed to the mortgage boom and bust of the early 2000s. Original data on private mortgage insurance premiums from 1999 to 2016 reveal that before 2008, premiums did not vary across loans with widely different indicators of default risk. We quantify the mispricing of premiums before 2008 and show that even allowing for more optimistic beliefs, the flat premium structure resulted in cross‐subsidies and substantial adverse selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite a great deal of scholarly attention to the concept of partisan-ideological sorting, few analyses have investigated differences in sorting patterns among subgroups of Americans, with most opting to examine broader trends among the entirety of the mass public instead. However, recent work shows that Black Americans have not sorted to the same degree as Whites. We (1) extend previous studies to include an examination of Latinos and (2) offer an explanation for lower levels of sorting among non-Whites: belief system complexity. We argue that as one's belief system – operationalized by issue attitudes or core values, for example – becomes more multidimensional, the probability of neatly sorting along a unidimensional continuum decreases. Using data from the 1986–2016 ANES American National Election Studies, we first show that Black and Latino Americans have more complex political belief systems, operationalized in several different ways, compared to Whites. Then, we examine the relationship between various measures of belief system complexity and sorting, observing strong relationships that help account for the discrepancy in sorting between White and non-White Americans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Objective Structured Clinical Examinations (OSCEs) are an increasingly popular evaluation modality for medical students. While the face-to-face interaction allows for more in-depth assessment, it may cause standardization problems. Methods to quantify, limit or adjust for examiner effects are needed. Methods: Data originated from 3 OSCEs undergone by 900-student classes of 5th- and 6th-year medical students at Université Paris Cité in the 2022-2023 academic year. Sessions had five stations each, and one of the three sessions was scored by consensus by two raters (rather than one). We report OSCEs' longitudinal consistency for one of the classes and staff-related and student variability by session. We also propose a statistical method to adjust for inter-rater variability by deriving a statistical random student effect that accounts for staff-related and station random effects. Results: From the four sessions, a total of 16,910 station scores were collected from 2615 student sessions, with two of the sessions undergone by the same students, and 36, 36, 35 and 20 distinct staff teams in each station for each session. Scores had staff-related heterogeneity (p<10-15), with staff-level standard errors approximately doubled compared to chance. With mixed models, staff-related heterogeneity explained respectively 11.4%, 11.6%, and 4.7% of station score variance (95% confidence intervals, 9.5-13.8, 9.7-14.1, and 3.9-5.8, respectively) with 1, 1 and 2 raters, suggesting a moderating effect of consensus grading. Student random effects explained a small proportion of variance, respectively 8.8%, 11.3%, and 9.6% (8.0-9.7, 10.3-12.4, and 8.7-10.5), and this low amount of signal resulted in student rankings being no more consistent over time with this metric, rather than with average scores (p=0.45). Conclusion: Staff variability impacts OSCE scores as much as student variability, and the former can be reduced with dual assessment or adjusted for with mixed models. Both are small compared to unmeasured sources of variability, making them difficult to capture consistently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I use a novel decomposition to estimate information and bias components from the returns implied by analyst price targets and provide evidence that prices simultaneously under-react to information and over-react to bias. Price reactions to information are permanent, and prices drift in the direction of their initial reaction for up to 12 months. Price reactions to bias are transitory, and prices reverse their initial reaction after about three months. Price reactions are relatively efficient. Approximately 85 percent of the total price reaction to information occurs during price target announcement months. Market participants are able to mostly (but not fully) debias analyst-expected returns before incorporating them into prices, with the announcement-month reaction to bias being relatively weak at about 15 percent of its reaction to information. A trading strategy analysis implies that mispricing induced by bias is only about one-third of that implied by prior research. JEL Classifications: G12; G14; G40. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to investigate whether mandated disclosure of engagement quality review hours provides new information that affects investors' decision-making. Design/methodology/approach: In 2014, Korean authorities mandated that audit engagement quality review hours must be disclosed in their audit reports. Using this unique field setting in Korea, this study presents empirical evidence of the policy initiative's effect on earnings reliability by examining both pre- and post-implementation periods. Findings: Following the initial disclosure of engagement quality review hours in 2014, the authors observe that the capital market's valuation of quarterly earnings surprises, measured by earnings response coefficients (ERCs), was significantly lower for firms with high levels of abnormal engagement quality review hours than for other firms. This paper also finds that the observed association between engagement quality review hours and ERCs in the postregulation period hinges on the probability of earnings management, proxied by discretionary accruals and just meeting or beating analyst earnings forecast. Originality/value: This paper suggests that the policy mandating disclosure of engagement quality review hours provides original information that the market considers relevant for appraising the reliability of reported earnings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Negative associations of religiosity and intelligence are well established in psychological research. However, past studies have shown a substantial heterogeneity in reported effect strengths. Causes that may be able to explain the identified inconsistencies pertain to differing religiosity measurement modalities, participant ages, or possibly cohort effects due to changing societal values in terms of being religious. Moreover, little is known about intelligence associations with the religiosity-related yet distinct construct of spirituality. Here, we provide evidence for religiosity and crystallized intelligence, as well as spirituality and crystallized intelligence associations, in 14 cohorts from 1988 to 2022 (N = 35,093) in the General Social Survey data by means of primary data analyses and meta-analytical approaches. As expected, religiosity was non-trivially negatively associated (r = −0.13, p <.001), but spirituality showed no meaningful association with crystallized intelligence (r = 0.03, p <.001). Our results broadly generalized across age groups, cohorts, and analytical approaches, thus suggesting that religiosity and intelligence may possibly be functionally equivalent to a certain extent whilst spirituality represents a distinct construct that is not functionally equivalent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Difficulties in reasoning about others' mental states (i.e., mentalising/Theory of Mind) are highly prevalent among disorders featuring dopamine dysfunctions (e.g., Parkinson's disease) and significantly affect individuals' quality of life. However, due to multiple confounding factors inherent to existing patient studies, currently little is known about whether these sociocognitive symptoms originate from aberrant dopamine signalling or from psychosocial changes unrelated to dopamine. The present study, therefore, investigated the role of dopamine in modulating mentalising in a sample of healthy volunteers. We used a double-blind, placebo-controlled procedure to test the effect of the D2/D3 antagonist haloperidol on mental state attribution, using an adaptation of the Heider and Simmel (1944) animations task. On 2 separate days, once after receiving 2.5 mg haloperidol and once after receiving placebo, 33 healthy adult participants viewed and labelled short videos of 2 triangles depicting mental state (involving mentalistic interaction wherein 1 triangle intends to cause or act upon a particular mental state in the other, e.g., surprising) and non-mental state (involving reciprocal interaction without the intention to cause/act upon the other triangle's mental state, e.g., following) interactions. Using Bayesian mixed effects models, we observed that haloperidol decreased accuracy in labelling both mental and non-mental state animations. Our secondary analyses suggest that dopamine modulates inference from mental and non-mental state animations via independent mechanisms, pointing towards 2 putative pathways underlying the dopaminergic modulation of mental state attribution: action representation and a shared mechanism supporting mentalising and emotion recognition. We conclude that dopaminergic pathways impact Theory of Mind, at least indirectly. Our results have implications for the neurochemical basis of sociocognitive difficulties in patients with dopamine dysfunctions and generate new hypotheses about the specific dopamine-mediated mechanisms underlying social cognition. Difficulties in reasoning about others' mental states ("Theory of Mind") are highly prevalent among disorders featuring dopamine dysfunctions, but it is not clear if these difficulties are a direct consequence of aberrant dopamine signaling. This psychopharmacology study provides insights into the role of dopamine in Theory of Mind, showing that the D2-receptor antagonist haloperidiol reduces the accuracy with which healthy adults attribute mental states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that "zombie credit"—subsidized credit to nonviable firms—has a disinflationary effect. By keeping these firms afloat, zombie credit creates excess aggregate supply, thereby putting downward pressure on prices. Granular European data on inflation, firms, and banks confirm this mechanism. Markets affected by a rise in zombie credit experience lower firm entry and exit, capacity utilization, markups, and inflation, as well as a misallocation of capital and labor, which results in lower productivity, investment, and value added. If weakly capitalized banks were recapitalized in 2009, inflation in Europe would have been up to 0.21 percentage points higher post‐2012. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SYNOPSIS: We examine the cost and consequences of switching auditors. Specifically, we consider several client costs (audit fees, going-concern opinions, and internal control opinions) in the last year of an audit engagement ("terminal year"). We find that outgoing auditors are more likely to charge higher audit fees, issue more going-concern opinions, and issue more adverse internal control opinions during the terminal years of their audits. These findings suggest that outgoing auditors gain greater bargaining power, are more likely to charge for additional hours of audit work, and are less likely to yield to client pressures. Overall, our results suggest that companies face real economic costs from the outgoing auditor in addition to the start-up costs of the incoming auditor. Data Availability: Data are publicly available from sources identified in the text. JEL Classifications: G31; G32; G33; M21. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine firm value and performance implications of the growing trend of nontechnology companies engaging in activities relating to digital technologies. We measure digital activities in firms based on the disclosure of digital words in the business description section of 10-Ks. Digital activities are associated with a market-to-book ratio 8%–26% higher than industry peers, and only 25% of the differences in market-to-book is explained by accounting capitalization restrictions. To control for selection bias, we implement lagged dependent variable and IV regressions, and our market-to-book findings are robust to these specifications. Portfolios formed on digital activity disclosure earn a Daniel et al. The Journal of Finance 52 (3): 1035–1058 (1997)-adjusted return of 30% over a three-year horizon and a monthly alpha of 44-basis-points. On the other hand, we find weak evidence of near-term, positive improvements in fundamental performance, as we find some evidence of interim productivity increases but declines in sales growth conditional on digital activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show theoretically and empirically that measurement error can bias in favor of falsely rejecting a true null hypothesis (i.e., a "false positive") and that regression models with high-dimensional fixed effects can exacerbate measurement error bias and increase the likelihood of false positives. We replicate inferences from prior work in a setting where we can directly observe the amount of measurement error and show that the combination of measurement error and fixed effects materially inflates coefficients and distorts inferences. We provide researchers with a simple diagnostic tool to assess the possibility that the combination of measurement error and fixed effects might give rise to a false positive, and encourage researchers to triangulate inferences across multiple empirical proxies and multiple fixed effect structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine whether and how auditors’ and audit clients’ IFRS-related experience alters auditors’ pricing decisions in the initial years of IFRS adoption in China. Design/methodology/approach – The authors conduct the analysis by examining audit fees from 4,129 sample observations that issued A-shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2005 to 2008. The authors empirically test the association between audit premiums and auditors’ and auditees’ IFRS experience. Findings – The authors find that auditors with IFRS experience charged significantly higher audit premiums in the initial years of IFRS adoption. The authors also find that audit clients’ with IFRS experience paid significantly lower incremental fees. The authors further find that the increased fees charged by audit firms with IFRS experience are independent of the degree of changes in the financial reporting complexity of their clients. In contrast, audit clients with IFRS experience paid lower incremental fees only when they underwent a high degree of changes in financial reporting complexity. Originality/value – First, it is the understanding that this study is the first to provide evidence on the effect of audit clients’ experience on audit fees. Second, the measure of auditors’ expertise is independent of audit clients’ decisions and is a less noisy measure. Third, the findings complement the existing evidence from other countries regarding the effects of IFRS convergence on audit fees. Finally, this study empirically tests the effects of changes in financial reporting complexity on audit fees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obesity has received increased attention arising from its increasing prevalence and the implications of obesity-related problems for society and the wider economy. To estimate healthcare and non-healthcare obesity impacts, many studies rely on body mass index (BMI) as a measure of obesity. However BMI is considered to be a noisy measure of total body fat that unlike some other measures does not capture fat distribution. This study uses one such measure, the waist-to-hip ratio, as both an alternative and in conjunction with BMI in the estimation of the relationship between adiposity and health service use. The article uses data from a large-scale study of older adults living in Ireland (the Tilda data set). The findings indicate that studies that include both measures of general and central adiposity may provide a more comprehensive characterisation of the relationship between healthcare service use and adiposity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marketing practices like money-back guarantees (MBGs) are prevalent in many expert-service markets but are often decried as marketing gimmicks that take advantage of vulnerable and poorly informed consumers. In this research, conducted in the market for in vitro fertilization services, the authors empirically assess differences in quality of care between clinics that offer MBG programs and those that don't, to investigate whether MBG programs can serve a purpose consistent with signaling and insurance theories. The analysis is conducted on a unique longitudinal data set that includes information on clinic-level treatment, outcome statistics, clinic characteristics, and marketing practices for fertility clinics in the United States, state-level insurance mandates, competition environments, and demographic and geographic characteristics. Using an instrumental variable approach to account for the endogeneity of MBG decisions made by fertility clinics, the authors find that MBG clinics, on average, offer better treatment outcomes in terms of success rates while undertaking lower risks. The results are consistent with signaling theory predictions that market-based programs like MBGs can serve as signals of unobservable clinic quality despite the incentives for clinics to engage in opportunistic behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]