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This study has examined both: (i) the global structure and seasonal variability of the eastward- and westward-travelling quasi 6-day waves (Q6DWs) observed in the geopotential height (GPH) NOGAPS-ALPHA hourly forecast data during the time interval of 14 months (January 2009–February 2010), and (ii) the climatology and interannual variability of the Q6DWs observed in the satellite MLS/Aura GPH data for an extended period of 10 years (January 2005–December 2014). Both data sets are analyzed by using the same approach. The detailed analysis revealed that the westward-travelling Q6DWs have been identified mainly at mid-high latitudes with zonal wave numbers 1 and 2. Two different types of eastward-travelling waves have been found: (i) waves at middle and high latitudes with zonal wave numbers 1 and 2, which are observed in the local winters, and (ii) waves observed over the equator with zonal wave number 1, which maximize mainly between June and September with a secondary enhancement between January–March belonging to the fast Kelvin waves. Some signatures of the solar cycle and SSW impact on the interannual variability as well as ∼2–3-year variability have been distinguished in the different ∼6-day waves. This study draws attention to both the rarely studied winter-time eastward-travelling PWs and the impact of the SSW events, particularly the major ones, on the short- and long-term variability of the PW populations.

We investigate the benefit of high altitude nudging in simulations of the structure and short-term variability of the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (UMLT) dynamical meteorology during boreal winter, specifically around the time of the January 2009 sudden stratospheric warming. We compare simulations using the Specified Dynamics, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, extended version, nudged using atmospheric specifications generated by the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, Advanced Level Physics High Altitude. Two sets of simulations are carried out: one uses nudging over a vertical domain from 0-90 km; the other uses nudging over a vertical domain from 0-50 km. The dynamical behavior is diagnosed from ensemble mean and standard deviation of winds, temperature, and zonal accelerations due to resolved and parameterized waves. We show that the dynamical behavior of the UMLT is quite different in the two experiments, with prominent differences in the structure and variability of constituent transport. We compare the results of our numerical experiments to observations of carbon monoxide by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer to show that the high-altitude nudging is capable of reproducing with high fidelity the observed variability, and traveling planetary waves are a crucial component of the dynamics. The results of this study indicate that to capture the key physical processes that affect short-term variability (defined as the atmospheric behavior within about 10 days of a stratospheric warming) in the UMLT, specification of the atmospheric state in the stratosphere alone is not sufficient, and upper atmospheric specifications are needed.

The main stages are considered of the process of Roshydromet forecast technologies modernization that started in the 1990s, especially those related to the use of supercomputers for operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) and to the development of supercomputer technologies for NWP with different lead times. Some outcomes of the modernization are presented.

Since October 2013 a convective-scale weather prediction model has been used operationally to provide short-term forecasts covering large parts of the Nordic region. The model is now operated by a bilateral cooperative effort [Meteorological Cooperation on Operational Numerical Weather Prediction (MetCoOp)] between the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The core of the model is based on the convection-permitting Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME) model developed by Météo-France. In this paper the specific modifications and updates that have been made to suit advanced high-resolution weather forecasts over the Nordic regions are described. This includes modifications in the surface drag description, microphysics, snow assimilation, as well as an update of the ecosystem and surface parameter description. Novel observation types are introduced in the operational runs, including ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations and radar reflectivity data from the Norwegian and Swedish radar networks. After almost two years’ worth of experience with the AROME-MetCoOp model, the model’s sensitivities to the use of specific parameterization settings are characterized and the forecast skills demonstrating the benefit as compared with the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) are evaluated. Furthermore, case studies are provided to demonstrate the ability of the model to capture extreme precipitation and wind events.

Forecast solar exposure fields produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s updated numerical weather prediction systems were validated against multiple sites for the 2012 calendar year. The updated systems are denoted as the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) model and became operational in August 2010. The systems are based on the Met Office’s Unified Model and feature improved assimilation methods and radiation parameterizations that were expected to greatly improve forecasts of solar exposure several days in advance. In this study forecasts of global, direct, and diffuse exposure from the mesoscale model ACCESS-A were validated. Statistics were generated for all-sky and clear-sky conditions. Additionally, evaluation of the model’s forecast exposure through single-layer low clouds was conducted. Results show an improvement in global forecasts relative to the older operational model; however, forecasts of diffuse and direct exposure still suffer from large biases. These can be attributed to the choices of the asymmetry factor used in the two-stream approximation for incoming radiation, which determines scattering of the direct beam through clouds.

A global deterministic wave prediction system (GDWPS) is used to improve regional forecasts of waves off the Canadian coastline and help support the practice of safe marine activities in Canadian waters. The wave model has a grid spacing of ¼° with spectral resolution of 36 frequency bins and 36 directional bins. The wave model is driven with hourly 10-m winds generated by the operational global atmospheric prediction system. Ice conditions are updated every three hours using the ice concentration forecasts generated by the Global Ice–Ocean Prediction System. Wave forecasts are evaluated over two periods from 15 August to 31 October 2014 and from 15 December 2014 to 28 February 2015, as well as over select cases during the fall of 2012. The global system is shown to improve wave forecast skill over regions where forecasts were previously produced using limited-area models only. The usefulness of a global expansion is demonstrated for large swell events affecting the northeast Pacific. The first validation of a Canadian operational wave forecast system in the Arctic is presented. Improvements in the representation of forecast wave fields associated with tropical cyclones are also demonstrated. Finally, the GDWPS is shown to result in gains of at least 12 h of lead time.

The Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) provides daily operational global, regional, and coastal ocean model forecasts and their associated prediction products. The models utilized include three-dimensional circulation, wave and ice forecasting systems that have been developed to meet Navy requirements; the models are forced by Navy atmospheric models and constrained by Navy-developed bottom topography. In addition, NAVOCEANO acquires, quality controls, and delivers real-time ocean observations from both in situ and remote-sensing resources for assimilation by the ocean models. These observations are also used to assess model skill and develop ocean climatologies. A major supercomputing capacity is needed to run this ocean modeling suite, as well as a uniquely skilled model operations team that keeps the systems running. Dedicated ocean forecasters interpret the predictions and apply the information to Navy operations. The path from requirements to development to operations demonstrates the close links between research and development production, and operational Navy applications. This path also provides innovative future ocean modeling plans directed to improve oceanographic support to the Navy.

Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analysis and operational forecasts are evaluated against the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim; ERAI) and satellite data, and compared with the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecasts, using both performance- and physics-based metrics. The NOGAPS analysis captures realistic Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) signals in the dynamic fields and the low-level premoistening leading to active convection, but the MJO signals in the relative humidity (RH) and diabatic heating rate (Q1) fields are weaker than those in the ERAI or the GFS analysis. The NOGAPS forecasts, similar to the GFS forecasts, have relatively low prediction skill for the MJO when the MJO initiates over the Indian Ocean and when active convection is over the Maritime Continent. The NOGAPS short-term precipitation forecasts are broadly consistent with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) precipitation results with regionally quantitative differences. Further evaluation of the precipitation and column water vapor (CWV) indicates that heavy precipitation develops too early in the NOGAPS forecasts in terms of the CWV, and the NOGAPS forecasts show a dry bias in the CWV increasing with forecast lead time. The NOGAPS underpredicts light and moderate-to-heavy precipitation but overpredicts extremely heavy rainfall. The vertical profiles of RH and Q1 reveal a dry bias within the marine boundary layer and a moist bias above. The shallow heating mode is found to be missing for CWV < 50 mm in the NOGAPS forecasts. The diabatic heating biases are associated with weaker trade winds, weaker Hadley and Walker circulations over the Pacific, and weaker cross-equatorial flow over the Indian Ocean in the NOGAPS forecasts.

In October 2010, typhoon Megi induced a profound cold wake of size 800 km by 500 km with sea surface temperature cooling of 8°C in the South China Sea (SCS). More interestingly, the cold wake shifted from the often rightward bias to both sides of the typhoon track and moved to left in a few days. Using satellite data, in situ measurements and numerical modeling based on the East Asian Seas Nowcast/Forecast System (EASNFS), we performed detailed investigations. To obtain realistic typhoon-strength atmospheric forcing, the EASNFS applied typhoon-resolving Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model wind field blended with global weather forecast winds from the U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). In addition to the already known impacts from the slow typhoon translation speed and shallow pre-exiting ocean thermocline, we found the importance of the unique geographical setting of the SCS and the NE monsoon. As the event happened in late October, NE monsoon already started and contributed to the southwestward ambient surface current. Together with the topographicβ effect, the cold wake shifted westward to the left of Megi's track. It was also found that Megi expelled waters away from the SCS and manifested as a gush of internal Kelvin wave exporting waters through the Luzon Strait. The consequential sea level depression lasted and presented a favorable condition for cold dome development. Fission of the north-south elongated cold dome resulted afterward and produced two cold eddies that dissipated slowly thereafter.

We have explored the sensitivity of the thermosphere and ionosphere to dynamical forcing from altitudes near the mesopause (~95 km). We performed five simulations, all for the year 2009, with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM). Two simulations were driven with the NCAR Global Scale Wind Model, and three used output from the Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (ALPHA) version of the Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). Use of NOGAPS-ALPHA allows for realistic meteorological variability from the lower atmosphere to propagate up into the TIEGCM, including a rich spectrum of nonmigrating tides. We find that the additional vertical transport from these tides causes a significant reduction in the calculated peak electron density of the ionospheric F2 layer (NmF2). The mechanism for this effect is the enhanced downward transport of atomic oxygen to the base of the thermosphere. In turn, this yields a greater relative abundance of N2 and hence enhanced recombination of ions and electrons. To get improved agreement with observed electron densities, we must reduce (Kzz) by a factor of 5. However, even with lower Kzz, our calculation still underestimates the NmF2 compared with radio occultation observations by the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate satellite system. This underestimate of NmF2 may be linked to an overestimate of the nonmigrating tides in the coupled TIEGCM-NOGAPS calculations or to uncertainties in the bottom boundary for atomic oxygen in the TIEGCM.

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts rely heavily on output from global numerical models. While considerable research has investigated the skill of various models with respect to track and intensity, few studies have considered how well global models forecast TC genesis in the North Atlantic basin. This paper analyzes TC genesis forecasts from five global models [Environment Canada's Global Environment Multiscale Model (CMC), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global model, the Global Forecast System (GFS), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and the Met Office global model (UKMET)] over several seasons in the North Atlantic basin. Identifying TCs in the model is based on a combination of methods used previously in the literature and newly defined objective criteria. All model-indicated TCs are classified as a hit, false alarm, early genesis, or late genesis event. Missed events also are considered. Results show that the models' ability to predict TC genesis varies in time and space. Conditional probabilities when a model predicts genesis and more traditional performance metrics (e.g., critical success index) are calculated. The models are ranked among each other, and results show that the best-performing model varies from year to year. A spatial analysis of each model identifies preferred regions for genesis, and a temporal analysis indicates that model performance expectedly decreases as forecast hour (lead time) increases. Consensus forecasts show that the probability of genesis noticeably increases when multiple models predict the same genesis event. Overall, this study provides a climatology of objectively identified TC genesis forecasts in global models. The resulting verification statistics can be used operationally to help refine deterministic and probabilistic TC genesis forecasts and potentially improve the models examined.

A multi-model archive of global deterministic forecasts and analyses from three operational systems is constructed to analyse recent Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude forecast skill from 2007 to 2012 and its relation to large-scale atmospheric flow anomalies defined by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. We find that the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) in 120-hr forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential height has similar variability on synoptic, monthly, and seasonal time scales in each of the three forecast systems examined here: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System, and the U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System. The results indicate that forecast skill as measured by the ACC is significantly correlated with the AO index and its transitions between negative and positive phase. Intervals of exceptionally high ACC skill during the 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 winters are associated with periods in which the AO remained in a persistent negative phase pattern. Episodes of low ACC, including so-called ‘forecast skill dropouts’ most frequently occur during transitions between negative and positive AO index and with positive AO index. The root mean square error (RMSE) of 120-hr forecast 500 hPa height is also modulated by the AO index, but to a lesser extent than the ACC. In two recent winters, the RMSE indicates lower 120-hr forecast accuracy during periods with negative AO index, which is opposite to ‘skill’ patterns provided by the ACC. These results suggest that the ACC is not in all situations an optimal metric with which to quantify model forecast skill, since the ACC can be higher when the large-scale atmospheric flow contains strong anomalies even if there is no actual improvement in model forecasts of that atmospheric state. Keywords: numerical weather prediction, anomaly correlation coefficient, forecast skill, Arctic Oscillation (Published: 14 November 2012) Citation: Tellus A 2012, 64 , 17531, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17531

The objective of this study is to i) investigate the effects of orography on the rainfall, wind, and cloud systems of the Typhoon Ketsana (2009) in Indochina, ii) determine rainfall distribution patterns and which parts of Indochina were most affected during Typhoon Ketsana, iii) identify trends in the cloud and rainfall distribution patterns and wind flow patterns in the synoptic scale on orographic effects during Typhoon Ketsana. Remote sensing techniques have been used to study the impacts of TCs. Using data from the remote sensing data such as Fengyun 2D (FY-2D) satellite, Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) satellite, wind information from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and radiosonde data were applied in this study to determine the relationship of the typhoon with the orographic effect. This study provides examples of how the orographic effect is important to weather forecasters, as high mountain ranges were able to influence the distribution of the cloud, rainfall and even wind flow patterns during the typhoon season. This remote sensing technique allows tropical cyclones to be forecasted and their impacts to be defined, and it allows disaster zones to be determined.

This analysis examines the predictability of several key forecasting parameters using the ECMWF Variable Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) including tropical cyclone genesis, pregenesis and postgenesis track and intensity projections, and regional outlooks of tropical cyclone activity for the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Based on the evaluation period from 2007 to 2010, the VarEPS TC genesis forecasts demonstrate low false-alarm rates and moderate to high probabilities of detection for lead times of 1–7 days. In addition, VarEPS pregenesis track forecasts on average perform better than VarEPS postgenesis forecasts through 120 h and feature a total track error growth of 41 n mi day−1. VarEPS provides superior postgenesis track forecasts for lead times greater than 12 h compared to other models, including the Met Office global model (UKMET), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and the Global Forecasting System (GFS), and slightly lower track errors than the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This paper concludes with a discussion of how VarEPS can provide much of this extended predictability within a probabilistic framework for the region.

A high-order accurate radiative transfer (RT) model developed by Fu and Liou has been implemented into the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) to improve the energy budget and forecast skill. The Fu–Liou RT model is a four-stream algorithm (with a two-stream option) integrating over 6 shortwave bands and 12 longwave bands. The experimental 10-day forecasts and analyses from data assimilation cycles are compared with the operational output, which uses a two-stream RT model of three shortwave and five longwave bands, for both winter and summer periods. The verifications against observations of radiosonde and surface data show that the new RT model increases temperature accuracy in both forecasts and analyses by reducing mean bias and root-mean-square errors globally. In addition, the forecast errors also grow more slowly in time than those of the operational NOGAPS because of accumulated effects of more accurate cloud–radiation interactions. The impact of parameterized cloud effective radius in estimating liquid and ice water optical properties is also investigated through a sensitivity test by comparing with the cases using constant cloud effective radius to examine the temperature changes in response to cloud scattering and absorption. The parameterization approach is demonstrated to outperform that of constant radius by showing smaller errors and better matches to observations. This suggests the superiority of the new RT model relative to its operational counterpart, which does not use cloud effective radius. An effort has also been made to improve the computational efficiency of the new RT model for operational applications.

This study is Part II of the effort to improve the forecasting of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events by using a version of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) that covers the full stratosphere. In Part I, extended-range (3 week) hindcast experiments (without data assimilation) for the January 2009 Arctic major SSW were performed using NOGAPS with a unified orographic drag parameterization that consists of the schemes employed by Webster et al., as well as Kim and Arakawa and Kim and Doyle. Part I demonstrated that the model with upgraded middle-atmospheric orographic drag physics better forecasts the magnitude and evolution of the SSW and better simulates the trend of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. In this study (Part II), a series of 5-day hindcast experiments is performed with cycling data assimilation using the Naval Research Laboratory Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System-Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR), a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) system. Further efforts are made to improve the hindcasting of SSW by improving the satellite radiance bias correction process that strongly affects the data assimilation. The innovation (observation minus background) limit is optimally determined to reduce the rejection of useful radiance data. It is found that when the innovation limit is properly set, both the analysis and forecast of the SSW event can be improved, and that the orographic drag helps improve the SSW forecast.

Two versions of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) global ensemble, with and without a stochastic convection scheme, are compared regarding their performance in predicting the development and evolution of tropical cyclones. Forecasts of four typhoons, one tropical storm, and two selected nondeveloping tropical systems from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign and Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (T-PARC/TCS-08) field program during August and September 2008 are evaluated. It is found that stochastic convection substantially increases the spread in ensemble storm tracks and in the vorticity and height fields in the vicinity of the storm. Stochastic convection also has an impact on the number of ensemble members predicting genesis. One day prior to the system being declared a tropical depression, on average, 31% of the ensemble members predict storm development when the ensemble includes initial perturbations only. When stochastic convection is included, this percentage increases to 50%, but the number of “false alarms” for two nondeveloping systems also increases. However, the increase in false alarms is smaller than the increase in correct development predictions, indicating that stochastic convection may have the potential for improving tropical cyclone forecasting.

The hurricanes can be detected by many remote sensors, but synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can yield high-resolution (sub-kilometer) and low-level wind information that cannot be seen below the cloud by other sensors. In this paper, an assessment of SAR capability of monitoring high-resolution hurricane was conducted. A case study was carried out to retrieve ocean surface wind field from C-band RADARSAT-1 SAR image which captured the structure of hurricane Helene over the Atlantic Ocean on 20 September, 2006. With wind direction from the outputs of U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model, C-band geophysical model functions (GMFs) which describe the normalized radar cross section (NRCS) dependence on the wind speed and the geometry of radar observations (i.e., incidence angle and azimuth angle with respect to wind direction) such as CMOD5 and newly developed CIWRAP models have been tested to extract wind speed from SAR data. The SAR retrieved ocean surface winds were compared to the aircraft wind speed observations from stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR). The results show the capability of hurricane wind monitoring by SAR.

A very strong Arctic major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event occurred in late January 2009. The stratospheric temperature climbed abruptly and the zonal winds reversed direction, completely splitting the polar stratospheric vortex. A hindcast of this event is attempted by using the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), which includes the full stratosphere with its top at around 65 km. As Part I of this study, extended-range (3 week) forecast experiments are performed using NOGAPS without the aid of data assimilation. A unified parameterization of orographic drag is designed by combining two parameterization schemes; one by Webster et al., and the other by Kim and Arakawa and Kim and Doyle. With the new unified orographic drag scheme implemented, NOGAPS is able to reproduce the salient features of this Arctic SSW event owing to enhanced planetary wave activity induced by more comprehensive subgrid-scale orographic drag processes. The impact of the SSW on the tropospheric circulation is also investigated in view of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, which calculated using 1000-hPa geopotential height. The NOGAPS with upgraded orographic drag physics better simulates the trend of the AO index as verified by the Met Office analysis, demonstrating its improved stratosphere–troposphere coupling. It is argued that the new model is more suitable for forecasting SSW events in the future and can serve as a tool for studying various stratospheric phenomena.

This paper explores the hypothesis that a tropical cyclone (TC) may produce baroclinic waves through the divergent circulation that arises from its low-level inflow and upper-level outflow. The model setting is a quasigeostrophic (QG) two-layer fluid in which the effect of the tropical cyclone is parameterized through a source term on the QG potential vorticity equation. Equations predicting the spectral subset of baroclinic waves that are excited through linear resonance are derived. The near-TC pattern of the baroclinic waves in the streamfunction field typically takes the form of a ridge–trough couplet whose phase with respect to the TC varies with the speed and direction of the TCs motion vector. The predictions from the linearized theory are verified in two ways: 1) fully nonlinear simulations are shown and 2) comparison is made to the observed upper-level ridge–trough couplets produced by recurving TCs in the Navy’s Operational Global Prediction System (NOGAPS). The implications of this work for the predictability of downstream impacts from recurving TCs are briefly described.

The results from a∼1 km resolution HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), forced by 1/2° Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) atmospheric data, were used in order to study the dynamic response of the Persian Gulf to wintertime shamal forcing. Shamal winds are strong northwesterly winds that occur in the Persian Gulf area behind southeast moving cold fronts. The period from 20 November to 5 December 2004 included a well defined shamal event that lasted 4–5 days. In addition to strong winds (16 m s −1 ) the winter shamal also brought cold dry air ( T a =20 °C, q a =10 g kg −1 ) which led to a net heat loss in excess of 1000 W m −2 by increasing the latent heat flux. This resulted in SST cooling of up to 10 °C most notably in the northern and shallower shelf regions. A sensitivity experiment with a constant specific humidity of q a =15 g kg −1 confirmed that about 38% of net heat loss was due to the air–sea humidity differences. The time integral of SST cooling closely followed the air–sea heat loss, indicating an approximate one-dimensional vertical heat balance. It was found that the shamal induced convective vertical mixing provided a direct mechanism for the erosion of stratification and deepening of the mixed layer by 30 m. The strong wind not only strengthened the circulation in the entire Persian Gulf but also established a northwestward flowing Iranian Coastal Current (ICC, 25–30 cm s −1 ) from the Strait of Hormuz to about 52°E, where it veered offshore. The strongest negative sea level of 25–40 cm was generated in the northernmost portion of the Gulf while the wind setup against the coast of the United Arab Emirates established a positive sea level of 15–30 cm. The transport through the Strait of Hormuz at 56.2°E indicated an enhanced outflow of 0.25 Sv (Sv≡10 6 m 3 s −1 ) during 24 November followed by an equivalent inflow on the next day.

A widely used observation space covariance localization method is shown to adversely affect satellite radiance assimilation in ensemble Kalman filters (EnKFs) when compared to model space covariance localization. The two principal problems are that distance and location are not well defined for integrated measurements, and that neighboring satellite channels typically have broad, overlapping weighting functions, which produce true, nonzero correlations that localization in radiance space can incorrectly eliminate. The limitations of the method are illustrated in a 1D conceptual model, consisting of three vertical levels and a two-channel satellite instrument. A more realistic 1D model is subsequently tested, using the 30 vertical levels from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSU-A) weighting functions for channels 6–11, and the observation error variance and forecast error covariance from the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS). Analyses from EnKFs using radiance space localization are compared with analyses from raw EnKFs, EnKFs using model space localization, and the optimal analyses using the NAVDAS forecast error covariance as a proxy for the true forecast error covariance. As measured by mean analysis error variance reduction, radiance space localization is inferior to model space localization for every ensemble size and meaningful observation error variance tested. Furthermore, given as many satellite channels as vertical levels, radiance space localization cannot recover the true temperature state with perfect observations, whereas model space localization can.

A three-component decomposition is applied to global analysis data to show the existence of a beta gyre, which causes Tropical Cyclone (TC) to drift from a large-scale environmental steering current. Analyses from the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the Global Forecast System (GFS) of NCEP, and the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) are used in this study.

Singular vectors (SVs) are used to study the sensitivity of 2-day forecasts of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific to changes in the initial state. The SVs are calculated using the tangent and adjoint models of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) for 72 forecasts for 18 TCs in the western North Pacific during 2006. In addition to the linear SV calculation, nonlinear perturbation experiments are also performed in order to examine 1) the similarity between nonlinear and linear perturbation growth and 2) the downstream impacts over the North Pacific and North America that result from changes to the 2-day TC forecast. Both nonrecurving and recurving 2-day storm forecasts are sensitive to changes in the initial state in the near-storm environment (in an annulus approximately 500 km from the storm center). During recurvature, sensitivity develops to the northwest of the storm, usually associated with a trough moving in from the west. These upstream sensitivities can occur as far as 4000 km to the northwest of the storm, over the Asian mainland, which has implications for adaptive observations. Nonlinear perturbation experiments indicate that the linear calculations reflect case-to-case variability in actual nonlinear perturbation growth fairly well, especially when the growth is large. The nonlinear perturbations show that for recurving tropical cyclones, small initial perturbations optimized to change the 2-day TC forecast can grow and propagate downstream quickly, reaching North America in 5 days. The fastest 5-day perturbation growth is associated with recurving storm forecasts that occur when the baroclinic instability over the North Pacific is relatively large. These results suggest that nonlinear forecasts perturbed using TC SVs may have utility for predicting the downstream impact of TC forecast errors over the North Pacific and North America.

The tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) were evaluated for a number of data assimilation experiments conducted using observational data from two periods: 4 July–31 October 2005 and 1 August–30 September 2006. The experiments were designed to illustrate the impact of different types of satellite observations on the NOGAPS TC track forecasts. The satellite observations assimilated in these experiments consisted of feature-track winds from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) total column precipitable water and wind speeds, Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) radiances, and Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) and European Remote Sensing Satellite-2 (ERS-2) scatterometer winds. There were some differences between the results from basin to basin and from year to year, but the combined results for the 2005 and 2006 test periods for the North Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins indicated that the assimilation of the feature-track winds from the geostationary satellites had the most impact, ranging from 7% to 24% improvement in NOGAPS TC track forecasts. This impact was statistically significant at all forecast lengths. The impact of the assimilation of SSM/I precipitable water was consistently positive and statistically significant at all forecast lengths. The improvements resulting from the assimilation of AMSU-A radiances were also consistently positive and significant at most forecast lengths. There were no significant improvements/degradations from the assimilation of the other satellite observation types [e.g., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) winds, SSM/I wind speeds, and scatterometer winds]. The assimilation of all satellite observations resulted in a gain in skill of roughly 12 h for the NOGAPS 48- and 72-h TC track forecasts and a gain in skill of roughly 24 h for the 96- and 120-h forecasts. The percent improvement in these forecasts ranged from almost 20% at 24 h to over 40% at 120 h.

The forecast model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) have each been extended into the upper stratosphere and mesosphere to form an Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (ALPHA) version of NOGAPS extending to ~100 km. This NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP prototype is used to assimilate stratospheric and mesospheric temperature data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instruments. A 60-day analysis period in January and February 2006, was chosen that includes a well documented stratospheric sudden warming. SABER and MLS temperatures indicate that the SSW caused the polar winter stratopause at ~40 km to disappear, then reform at ~80 km altitude and slowly descend during February. The NOGAPS-ALPHA analysis reproduces this observed stratospheric and mesospheric temperature structure, as well as realistic evolution of zonal winds, residual velocities, and Eliassen-Palm fluxes that aid interpretation of the vertically deep circulation and eddy flux anomalies that developed in response to this wave-breaking event. The observation minus forecast (O-F) standard deviations for MLS and SABER are ~2 K in the mid-stratosphere and increase monotonically to about 6 K in the upper mesosphere. Increasing O-F standard deviations in the mesosphere are expected due to increasing instrument error and increasing geophysical variance at small spatial scales in the forecast model. In the mid/high latitude winter regions, 10-day forecast skill is improved throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere when the model is initialized using the high-altitude analysis based on assimilation of both SABER and MLS data.

The ensemble transform (ET) scheme changes forecast perturbations into analysis perturbations whose amplitudes and directions are consistent with a user-provided estimate of analysis error covariance. A practical demonstration of the ET scheme was undertaken using Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS) analysis error variance estimates and the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. It was found that the ET scheme produced forecast ensembles that were comparable to or better in a variety of measures than those produced by the Fleet Numerical and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) bred-growing modes (BGM) scheme. Also, the demonstration showed that the introduction of stochastic perturbations into the ET forecast ensembles led to a substantial improvement in the agreement between the ET and NAVDAS analysis error variances. This finding is strong evidence that even a small-sized ET ensemble is capable of obtaining good agreement between the ET and NAVDAS analysis error variances, provided that NWP model deficiencies are accounted for. Last, since the NAVDAS analysis error covariance estimate is diagonal and hence ignores multivariate correlations, it was of interest to examine the ET analysis perturbations’ spatial correlation. Tests showed that the ET analysis perturbations exhibited statistically significant, realistic multivariate correlations.

Part I of this two-part paper examined the satellite-derived rainfall accumulation and rain potential history of Hurricanes Isidore and Lili (2002). This paper (Part II) uses analyses from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) to examine the water budget and environmental parameters and their relationship to the precipitation for these two storms. Factors other than storm size are found to account for large volumetric differences in storm total rainfall between Lili and Isidore. It is found that the horizontal moisture convergence was crucial to the initiation and maintenance of Isidore’s intense rainfall before and during its landfall. When the storm was over the ocean, the ocean moisture flux (evaporation) was the second dominant term among the moisture sources that contribute to precipitation. During Isidore’s life history, the strong horizontal moisture flux convergence corresponded to the large storm total precipitable water. The large difference in budget-derived stored cloud ice and liquid water between Isidore and Lili is corroborated from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) measurements. During Isidore’s landfall, the decrease in environmental water vapor contributed to rainfall in a very small amount. These results indicate the importance of the environmental precipitable water and moisture convergence and ocean surface moisture flux in generating Isidore’s large rainfall volume and inland flooding as compared with Lili’s water budget history. Both the moisture convergence and ocean flux were small for Lili.

An analysis of the accuracy, and trends in the accuracy, of medium-range weather forecasts for Melbourne, Australia, is presented. The analysis shows that skill is evident in forecasts of temperature, rainfall, and qualitative descriptions of expected weather up to 7 days in advance. The analysis also demonstrates the existence of a long-term trend in the accuracy of the forecasts. For example, Day-3 forecasts of minimum temperature in recent years (average error ∼1.6 °C) are as skilful as Day-1 forecasts of minimum temperature in the 1960s and 1970s, whilst Day-4 forecasts of maximum temperature in recent years (average error ∼2.0 °C) are more skilful than Day-1 forecasts of maximum temperature in the 1960s and 1970s. It is suggested that this trend may be largely attributed to: a combination of (1) enhancements in the description of the atmosphere's initial state provided by remote sensing and other observational technologies; (2) advances in broad-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP); and (3) improvements in the forecast process that are supported by good organizational management, including developing and implementing new prediction techniques, and careful succession planning. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Interannual and climatological variations of wind stress drag coefficient (CD) are examined over the global ocean from 1998 to 2004. Here CD is calculated using high temporal resolution (3- and 6-hourly) surface atmospheric variables from two datasets: 1) the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and 2) the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). The stability-dependent CD algorithm applied to both datasets gives almost identical values over most of the global ocean, confirming the validity of results. Overall, major findings of this paper are as follows: 1) the CD value can change significantly (e.g., >50%) on 12-hourly time scales around the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream current systems; 2) there is strong seasonal variability in CD, but there is not much interannual change in the spatial variability for a given month; 3) a global mean CD ≈ 1.25 × 10−3 is found in all months, while CD ≥ 1.5 × 10−3 is prevalent over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans and in southern high-latitude regions as well, and CD ≤ 1.0 × 10−3 is typical in the eastern equatorial Pacific cold tongue; and 4) including the effects of air–sea stability on CD generally causes an increase of >20% in comparison to the one calculated based on neutral conditions in the tropical regions. Finally, spatially and temporally varying CD fields are therefore needed for a variety of climate and air–sea interaction studies.

Starting from 2003, a new typhoon surveillance program, Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR), was launched. During 2004, 10 missions for eight typhoons were conducted successfully with 155 dropwindsondes deployed. In this study, the impact of these dropwindsonde data on tropical cyclone track forecasts has been evaluated with five models (four operational and one research models). All models, except the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model, show the positive impact that the dropwindsonde data have on tropical cyclone track forecasts. During the first 72 h, the mean track error reductions in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) Global Spectral Model (GSM) are 14%, 14%, and 19%, respectively. The track error reduction in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in which the initial conditions are directly interpolated from the operational GFS forecast, is 16%. However, the mean track improvement in the GFDL model is a statistically insignificant 3%. The 72-h-average track error reduction from the ensemble mean of the above three global models is 22%, which is consistent with the track forecast improvement in Atlantic tropical cyclones from surveillance missions. In all, despite the fact that the impact of the dropwindsonde data is not statistically significant due to the limited number of DOTSTAR cases in 2004, the overall added value of the dropwindsonde data in improving typhoon track forecasts over the western North Pacific is encouraging. Further progress in the targeted observations of the dropwindsonde surveillances and satellite data, and in the modeling and data assimilation system, is expected to lead to even greater improvement in tropical cyclone track forecasts.

Because the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has only four dynamical models for guidance in making 96- and 120-h track forecasts, an opportunity exists for improving the consensus forecast by the proper removal of a likely erroneous forecast to form a selective consensus (SCON). Forecast fields from all four models [the U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), the U.S. Navy version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GFDN), the Met Office (UKMO) model, and the Global Forecast System (GFS)] were available during the 2005 western North Pacific season to evaluate for the first time the error mechanisms leading to large track errors. As shown previously for the NOGAPS and GFDN models during the 2004 season, error sources related to the midlatitude circulations accounted for about 90% of all large 120-h track errors by all four models during the 2005 season. This dominance of midlatitude-related error source is a major shift from the 72-h errors, which include more errors related to tropical circulations. In the GFS model, 95% of the large errors occurred because of an incorrect depiction of the vertical structure of the tropical cyclone. A systematic error in the GFDN model was identified in which a false anticyclogenesis was predicted downstream of the Tibetan Plateau, which accounted for over 50% of the large GFDN track errors. The consensus spread versus consensus error relationship is examined to isolate those 20%–25% of cases with large spreads and large errors that are candidates for forming an SCON. If the model tracks that contributed to the large errors are eliminated, the average improvement of the SCON forecasts relative to the nonselective consensus is 222 (239) n mi during 2005 (2004), and the corresponding average improvement relative to the JTWC forecasts is 382 (203) n mi. This application of SCON is considered the potential “forecastability” in that it represents the optimum use of the present numerical guidance for consensus forecasting.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been issuing 96- and 120-h track forecasts since May 2003. It uses four dynamical models that provide guidance at these forecast intervals and relies heavily on a consensus of these four models in producing the official forecast. Whereas each of the models has skill, each occasionally has large errors. The objective of this study is to provide a characterization of these errors in the western North Pacific during 2004 for two of the four models: the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) and the U.S. Navy’s version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GFDN). All 96- and 120-h track errors greater than 400 and 500 n mi, respectively, are examined following the approach developed recently by Carr and Elsberry. All of these large-error cases can be attributed to the models not properly representing the physical processes known to control tropical cyclone motion, which were classified in a series of conceptual models by Carr and Elsberry for either tropical-related or midlatitude-related mechanisms. For those large-error cases where an error mechanism could be established, midlatitude influences caused 83% (85%) of the NOGAPS (GFDN) errors. The most common tropical influence is an excessive direct cyclone interaction in which the tropical cyclone track is erroneously affected by an adjacent cyclone. The most common midlatitude-related errors in the NOGAPS tracks arise from an erroneous prediction of the environmental flow dominated by a ridge in the midlatitudes. Errors in the GFDN tracks are caused by both ridge-dominated and trough-dominated environmental flows in the midlatitudes. Case studies illustrating the key error mechanisms are provided. An ability to confidently identify these error mechanisms and thereby eliminate likely erroneous tracks from the consensus would improve the accuracy of 96- and 120-h track forecasts.

The influence of convective momentum transport (CMT) on tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts is examined in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) with the Emanuel cumulus parameterization. Data assimilation and medium-range forecast experiments show that for 35 tropical cyclones during August and September 2004 the inclusion of CMT in the cumulus parameterization significantly improves the TC track forecasts. The tests show that the track forecasts are very sensitive to the magnitude of the Emanuel parameterization’s convective momentum transport parameter, which controls the CMT tendency returned by the parameterization. While the overall effect of this formulation of CMT in NOGAPS data assimilation/medium-range forecasts results in the surface pressure of tropical cyclones being less intense (and more consistent with the analysis), the parameterization is not equivalent to a simple diffusion of winds in the presence of convection. This is demonstrated by two data assimilation/medium-range forecast tests in which a vertical diffusion algorithm replaces the CMT. Two additional data assimilation/medium-range forecast experiments were conducted to test whether the skill increase primarily comes from the CMT in the immediate vicinity of the tropical cyclones. The results show that the inclusion of the CMT calculation in the vicinity of the TC makes the largest contribution to the increase in forecast skill, but the general contribution of CMT away from the TC also plays an important role.

A multistage projection pursuit (PP) approach is applied to the classification of tropical cyclones (TCs) during extratropical transition (ET) using 500-hPa Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) geopotential height analyses. PP algorithms reduce the dimensionality of the high-dimensional data while minimizing the loss of information that discriminates among classes of ET types. In this paper, a prediction system is developed for ET TC classification and is applied to 85 western North Pacific storms during 1997-2004 using NOGAPS geopotential height analyses to group them as either intensifiers or dissipators. A classification is developed based on the 1997-2002 analyses, and the forecasting performance of the technique is tested on the storms from 2003 and 2004 in two different ways. In the first, the technique is applied at individual times utilizing just spatial information. In the second, the change in spatial patterns with time is taken into account with spatiotemporal algorithms. The preliminary classification results are slightly less accurate than those of NOGAPS but are found to be promising, and further possible improvements are discussed

Singular vector (SV) sensitivity, calculated using the adjoint model of the U.S. Navy Operation Global Atmosphere Prediction System (NOGAPS), is used to study the dynamics associated with tropical cyclone evolution. For each model-predicted tropical cyclone, SVs are constructed that optimize perturbation energy within a 20° by 20° latitude/longitude box centered on the 48-h forecast position of the cyclone. The initial SVs indicate regions where the 2-day forecast of the storm is very sensitive to changes in the analysis. Composites of the SVs for straight-moving cyclones and non-straight-moving cyclones that occurred in the Northern Hemisphere during its summer season in 2003 are examined. For both groups, the initial-time SV sensitivity exhibits a maximum within an annulus approximately 500 km from the center of the storms, in the region where the potential vorticity gradient of the vortex first changes sign. In the azimuthal direction, the composite initial-time SV maximum for the straight-moving group is located in the rear right quadrant with respect to the storm motion. The composite based on the non-straight-moving cyclones does not have a preferred quadrant in the vicinity of the storms and has larger amplitude away from the cyclones compared with the straight-moving storms, indicating more environmental influence on these storms. For both groups, the maximum initial sensitive areas are collocated with regions of flow moving toward the storm. While the initial SV maximum is located where the potential vorticity gradient changes sign, the final SV maximum is located where the potential vorticity gradient is a maximum. Examinations of individual cases demonstrate how SV sensitivity can be used to identify specific environmental influences on the storms. The relationship between the SV sensitivity and the potential vorticity is discussed. The results support the utility of SVs in applications to phenomena beyond midlatitude baroclinic systems.

A systematic methodology for model–data comparisons of sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth (MLD) is presented using inter-annual simulations from an ocean general circulation model (OGCM), the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Layered Ocean Model (NLOM), over 1980–1998. The model–data comparisons performed here are applicable to other OGCMs and are sufficiently detailed to allow easy comparison of results from other models with NLOM, including statistics at specific buoy locations in specific years. There are three model configurations: coarse resolution (1/2°global) and fine resolution (1/8° global and 1/16° Pacific). These are used to assess the sensitivity to OGCM resolution, including the impact of increasing non-determinicity due to flow instabilities in the 1/8° marginally eddy-resolving and 1/1°6 fully eddy-resolving simulations. In addition, sensitivity to the choice of atmospheric forcing product is investigated. For all three models the atmospheric forcing is from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) during 1980–1998, and for the 1/16° Pacific configuration only the forcing from the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) during 1990–1998 is also used. Availability of NOGAPS thermal forcing begins in 1998. Daily averaged buoy time series from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array are used for inter-annual evaluation of these atmospherically forced OGCMs with no assimilation of SST data and no date-specific assimilation of any data type. For the purpose of model evaluation several statistical metrics are calculated comparing buoy and model time series: mean error (ME), root-mean-square difference (RMSD), correlation coefficient (R), non-dimensional skill score (SS), and normalized RMSD (NRMSD). SST comparisons to the 340 yearlong daily buoy SST time series spanning 1980–1998 gave median values of − 0.09 °C for ME, 0.82 °C for RMSD, 0.92 for R, and 0.73 for SS for the 1/2° global model. Positive SS values, an indication of model success, are found for 286 out of 340 buoys (≈ 84%). An advantage of using a floating mixed layer approach in the global model is demonstrated for simulation of deep and shallow MLD at a buoy location in the Arabian Sea during the 1994–1995 Monsoon period. Model–data comparisons for 1998, when the equatorial Pacific ocean experienced a sharp transition from a strong El Nino to a strong La Nina event, revealed almost no sensitivity to the choice of thermal forcing product. In general, the sensitivity of SST accuracy to model resolution or atmospheric forcing choice was also low based on comparisons to 194 yearlong daily SST time series during 1990–1998. The median RMSD values are 0.68°, 0.61°, 0.84° and 0.84 °C for 1/2°, 1/8°, 1/16° ECMWF-forced simulations and the 1/16° with NOGAPS wind forcing and ECMWF thermal forcing. However, some regional differences exist, e.g., median RMSD values of 0.85 °C for the ECMWF-forced vs. 0.88 °C for the NOGAPS-forced simulations against the 127 TAO buoys, and 0.76 °C for NOGAPS-forced vs. 0.84 °C for ECMWF-forced simulations against the 67 NDBC buoys, all outside the equatorial region. Overall, the results of this paper revealed that 6 hourly wind and thermal forcing products exist that are sufficiently accurate to allow simulated SSTs and MLDs in an OGCM that are typically accurate to within

The Weber barotropic model (WBAR) was originally developed using predefined 850–200-hPa analyses and forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecasting System. The WBAR tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast performance was found to be competitive with that of more complex numerical weather prediction models in the North Atlantic. As a result, WBAR was revised to incorporate the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and forecasts for use at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The model was also modified to analyze its own storm-dependent deep-layer mean fields from standard NOGAPS pressure levels. Since its operational installation at the JTWC in May 2003, WBAR TC track forecast performance has been competitive with the performance of other more complex NWP models in the western North Pacific. Its TC track forecast performance combined with its high availability rate (93%–95%) has warranted its inclusion in the JTWC operational consensus. The impact of WBAR on consensus TC track forecast performance has been positive and WBAR has added to the consensus forecast availability (i.e., having at least two models to provide a consensus forecast).

We have noted with interest the series of scatterometer data studies carried out by Chelton, Freilich, and colleagues [see, e.g., Chelton et al. (2004), Freilich and Dunbar (1999), and in particular, Chelton and Freilich (2005, hereafter CF05)]. In CF05, the authors addressed at least three pressing needs. They provided a much-needed quantification of the gross, or bulk, error statistics of scatterometer observations. Equally as significant, they also showed that the use of scatterometer observations improved the accuracy of 10-m wind analyses and predictions in two of the major global numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, namely those of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Finally, CF05 presented a lucid and in-depth description of scatterometer instrument technology, which we suspect will make CF05 required reading for users of scatterometer observations. Before CF05, most of the literature on these three topics was confined to conference proceedings and various technical and other reports. Here, we present work that is complementary to that of CF05. We describe our experience with scatterometer data in both operations and research over a specific part of the globe. Our operational and research goals are very different from the topics covered in CF05. Unlike CF05, we do not focus on the gross statistics of the scatterometer observations, but instead on the capacity of scatterometer data to detect, monitor, and provide more accurate analyses and predictions of individual severe and extreme weather events on a routine basis. We do so largely by describing two case studies, chosen from many that we have investigated, which demonstrate clearly the value of scatterometer observations for weather systems in data-sparse oceanic and coastal areas. We welcome comments from the authors of CF05 on the results we present below. Our domain of interest is not global, but it is still a substantial region, covering the East Indian Ocean, the Southern Ocean, and the southwest Pacific Ocean, including the Tasman Sea. The region also spans a large range of latitudes, extending from the high latitudes, through the subtropics to the Tropics, and has a longitudinal extent from about 65° to 170°E. This region is very active meteorologically; however, it has been relatively neglected until recent years. It contains a number of countries that are routinely and adversely affected by severe weather, and there has long been exceptionally poor oceanic data coverage. The consequences of the data paucity include inaccurate initial analyses and subsequent operational forecast failures of NWP predictions on short-, medium-, and extended-range time scales. These failures usually occur when success is most needed. There have also been almost insurmountable problems in developing reliable climatologies, both atmospheric and oceanographic. In this correspondence, we concentrate only on the intense cyclonic systems that regularly generate severe and extreme weather, as these have the most impact Corresponding author address: Lance M. Leslie, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 100 E. Boyd Street, Room 1310, Norman, OK 73019-1013. E-mail: lmleslie@ou.edu FEBRUARY 2006 N O T E S A N D C O R R E S P O N D E N C E 737

A high-altitude version of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) spectral forecast model is used to simulate the unusual September 2002 Southern Hemisphere stratospheric major warming. Designated as NOGAPS-Advanced Level Physics and High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA), this model extends from the surface to 0.005 hPa (∼85 km altitude) and includes modifications to multiple components of the operational NOGAPS system, including a new radiative heating scheme, middle-atmosphere gravity wave drag parameterizations, hybrid vertical coordinate, upper-level meteorological initialization, and radiatively active prognostic ozone with parameterized photochemistry. NOGAPS-ALPHA forecasts (hindcasts) out to 6 days capture the main features of the major warming, such as the zonal mean wind reversal, planetary-scale wave amplification, large upward Eliassen–Palm (EP) fluxes, and splitting of the polar vortex in the middle stratosphere. Forecasts beyond 6 days have reduced upward EP flux in the lower stratosphere, reduced amplitude of zonal wavenumbers 2 and 3, and a middle stratospheric vortex that does not split. Three-dimensional EP-flux diagnostics in the troposphere reveal that the longer forecasts underestimate upward-propagating planetary wave energy emanating from a significant blocking pattern over the South Atlantic that played a large role in forcing the major warming. Forecasts of less than 6 days are initialized with the blocking in place, and therefore are not required to predict the blocking onset. For a more thorough skill assessment, NOGAPS-ALPHA forecasts over 3 weeks during September–October 2002 are compared with operational NOGAPS 5-day forecasts made at the time. NOGAPS-ALPHA forecasts initialized with 2002 operational NOGAPS analyses show a modest improvement in skill over the NOGAPS operational forecasts. An additional, larger improvement is obtained when NOGAPS-ALPHA is initialized with reanalyzed 2002 fields produced with the currently operational (as of October 2003) Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS). Thus the combination of higher model top, better physical parameterizations, and better initial conditions all yield improved forecasting skill over the NOGAPS forecasts issued operationally at the time.

A 34-member ensemble-mean trajectory through the cyclone phase space (CPS) is calculated using Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses for North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing extratropical transition (ET). Synoptic composites at four ET milestones are examined: 24 h prior to the beginning of ET (TB − 24), the beginning of ET (TB), the end of ET (TE), and 24 h after the end of ET (TE + 24). While the extratropically transitioning TC structure is tightly constrained in its tropical phase, it has a variety of evolutions after TE. Partitioning the ensemble based upon post-ET intensity change or structure discriminates among statistically significant ET precursor conditions. Compositing the various post-ET intensity regimes provides insight into the important environmental factors governing post-ET development. A TC that intensifies (weakens) after TE begins transition (t = TB) with a negatively (positively) tilted trough 1000 km (1500 km) upstream. The negative tilt permits a contraction and intensification of the eddy potential vorticity (PV) flux, while the positive trough tilt prevents contraction and intensification of the forcing. In 6 of the 34 cases, the posttropical cold-core cyclone develops a warm-seclusion structure, rather than remaining cold core. Anticipation of this warm-seclusion evolution is critical since it represents a dramatically increased risk of middle- to high-latitude wind and wave damage. The warm-seclusion evolution is most favored when the scale of the interacting trough closely matches the scale of the transitioned TC, focusing the eddy PV flux in the outflow layer of the transitioning TC. The sensitivity of structural evolution prior to and after TE illustrated here gives insight into the degradation of global model midlatitude forecast accuracy during a pending ET event. Eliassen–Palm flux cross sections suggest that ET is primarily driven by the eddy angular momentum flux of the trough, rather than the eddy heat flux associated with the trough. The response of the transitioning TC to the eddy angular momentum forcing is to produce adiabatic ascent and cooling radially inward and beneath the region of the forcing to restore thermal wind balance. In the case of ET, the forcing is maximized lower in the atmosphere, and spread over much greater depth, than in the case of trough-induced TC intensification. Only after TE is the eddy heat flux forcing as significant as the eddy angular momentum forcing, further supporting a physical foundation for the CPS description of cyclone evolution.

This article presents an investigation of wave fields during the approach of typhoon LINDA in 1997 in the Gulf of Thailand. Two modeling approaches are studied: The hard computing approach by the WAM cycle 4 model was used first to simulate wave heights and periods distribution covering the domain 95°E to 105°E and 5°N to 15°N. Then, the soft computing approach by the GRNN model was developed to predict the wave characteristics for lead times of 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 h. The input wind data were obtained from NOGAPS model archives with 1° resolution and are linearly interpolated to specify wind components at each grid point. The WAM model underestimated the wave height as much as 20%. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) and the mean absolute deviations (MADs) are 0.18–0.26 m and 0.13–0.18 m, respectively. The GRNN showed better forecasting results than the WAM model (RMSE

The current version of the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS) used operationally at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to provide 12-hourly tropical cyclone intensity guidance through day 5 is documented. STIPS is a multiple linear regression model. It was developed using a “perfect prog” assumption and has a statistical–dynamical framework, which utilizes environmental information obtained from Navy Operational Global Analysis and Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and the JTWC historical best track for development. NOGAPS forecast fields are used in real time. A separate version of the model (decay-STIPS) is produced that accounts for the effects of landfall by using an empirical inland decay model. Despite their simplicity, STIPS and decay-STIPS produce skillful intensity forecasts through 4 days, based on a 48-storm verification (July 2003–October 2004). Details of this model’s development and operational performance are presented.

An adjoint-based method is used to calculate the impact of observation data on a measure of short-range forecast error in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) during November and December 2003. The evaluated observations include all regular satellite and in situ data assimilated in the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS) at 1800 UTC, and also targeted dropsonde profiles provided by the North Atlantic Observing-System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Regional Campaign (NA-TReC) field program. Commerical aircraft observations account for 46% of the total forecast error reduction by observations in the NA-TReC domain, which includes the North Atlantic and adjacent regions of North America and Europe. Targeted dropsonde data have high impact per observation, but the impact of all dropsonde data is less than 2% of the total during the 2-month study period. Eight of 12 targeted dropsonde cases reduce forecast error. The percent of total impact for other observations assimilated at 1800 UTC in the NA-TReC domain is as follows: Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) radiances (16%), satellite winds (14%), land surface data (9%), radiosondes (8%), and ship-surface data (5%). If observations over the entire global domain are evaluated, the largest impact of data provided at 1800 UTC during November and December 2003 is provided by AMSU-A radiance data (48% of total).

Early operational numerical weather prediction outside the USA : an historical introduction. Part I: Internationalism and engineering NWP in sweden, 1952-69