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The medical devices, biotechnology, and healthcare industries are closely tied to innovation, with companies relying on research and development and new product introduction. However, innovation activities like research and development can be costly, and commercializing new products faces complexities. Having effective business models (BMs) aligned with such innovation activities is crucial. This study delves into the intricacies of BMs in these innovator companies, emphasizing the pivotal role of effective BMs in navigating uncertainties and fostering innovation. This study conducted a systematic literature review to synthesize knowledge on BMs in innovator health-tech companies and compare models on dimensions like infrastructure, offering, customers, and finances. The review of 34 recent papers revealed 9 key BMs - open innovation, sustainable, dynamic, dual, spin-off, frugal, high-tech entrepreneurial content marketing, back-end, and product-service systems BMs. The analysis found open innovation, sustainability, and dynamicity as foundational models that can serve as a basis when combined with others. The paper unveils a tailored Dynamic Sustainable Business Model (DSBM) for Health-Tech, designed to integrate adaptability and sustainability, providing a framework for companies to leverage emerging technologies effectively. Additionally, a conceptual framework outlining 28 groups of uncertainty factors in BMs was developed to aid risk management in health-tech. The findings offer crucial insights for companies in health-tech industries, aiding them in managing innovation and value creation amidst a rapidly evolving landscape.

Today’s challenges to sustainability are explored through a complex combination of interdisciplinary topics that explore various interactions between economic, social, and environmental systems that further contribute to existing uncertainties. Solving complex/dynamic sustainability constraints does not demand exclusively technical and practical methods, as it is equally important to have a profound conceptual understanding of the origins of such challenges. The purpose of this study was to investigate the challenges to the sustainable development process from the perspective of the philosophy of grey systems theory (GST). GST considers inherent defects and shortcomings in human understanding/knowledge and identifies the roots of uncertainty. The study concentrates on the sustainable development process, highlighting the ways in which GST explains the causes and sources of uncertainty in this process. It is emphasized that sustainability cannot be achieved without intentional human intervention, and that international collaboration is vital in solving sustainability problems. Uncertainty and challenges to sustainable development stem from human grey understanding and knowledge. This problem makes it difficult for humans to understand and model dynamicity, to strike a balance between different spheres of science, and to have an objective view of reality due to the dependence of knowledge on thinking paradigms and values. These shortcomings ultimately bring about value conflicts, different understandings of risks, and impediments to international collaboration and agreement. Finally, the study explains that uncertainty arises from incomplete understanding and grey knowledge, and that uncertainty undermines the prediction of outcomes. Furthermore, delays inherent in interactions and the impacts of diverse systems on the world increase uncertainty and complicate decision- and policymaking in improvement projects. In their efforts to implement their decisions and policies, humans also encounter various limitations in terms of their capacities, resources, and facilities. The application of GST-based approaches to the operational area is also discussed.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework for data analytics where everything is grey in nature and the associated uncertainty is considered as an essential part in data collection, profiling, imputation, analysis and decision making. Design/methodology/approach – A comparative study is conducted between the available uncertainty models and the feasibility of grey systems is highlighted. Furthermore, a general framework for the integration of grey systems and grey sets into data analytics is proposed. Findings – Grey systems and grey sets are useful not only for small data, but also big data as well. It is complementary to other models and can play a significant role in data analytics. Research limitations/implications – The proposed framework brings a radical change in data analytics. It may bring a fundamental change in our way to deal with uncertainties. Practical implications – The proposed model has the potential to avoid the mistake from a misleading data imputation. Social implications – The proposed model takes the philosophy of grey systems in recognising the limitation of our knowledge which has significant implications in our way to deal with our social life and relations. Originality/value – This is the first time that the whole data analytics is considered from the point of view of grey systems.

Scientific prediction and accurate grasp of the future trend of population change are conducive to the formulation of different population policies at different stages, so as to alleviate the adverse effects of the aging population on society and provide scientific theoretical reference for controlling the population size and making policy. Considering that the population system is affected by many complex factors and the structural relationship among these factors is complex, it can be regarded as a typical dynamic grey system. In this paper, the fractional-order GM (1, 1) model and the fractional-order Verhulst model are established, respectively, based on the statistical data of China's population indices from 2015 to 2019 to forecast the population size and the change trend of population structure of China from 2015 to 2050 in the short-term and medium- to long-term. The forecast results show that China’s population will grow in an inverse S shape from 2015 to 2050, when the total population will reach 1.43 billion. Moreover, during this period, the birth rate and natural growth rate of population will decrease year by year, and the proportion of aging population and the dependency ratio of population will increase year by year. Besides, the problem of aging population is going to become increasingly serious. The application of grey system method to population prediction can mine the complex information contained in the population number series. Meanwhile, the fractional-order accumulation can weaken the randomness of the original data series and reduce the influence of external disturbance factors, so it is a simple and effective population prediction method.

This study aimed to identify and rank the barriers faced by disabled elderly in China while accessing eHealth primary care services. Primary data were collected from the disabled elderly based on technological, individual, relational, environmental, and organizational constructs. The Dynamic Grey Relational Analysis (DGRA) and Multiple-criteria Decision-making (MCDM) based TOPSIS techniques were used to identify and rank the barriers. We found that the most significant barrier was "aging limitation (reduction in hearing, sight, memory, and fine motor control)" in both (DGRA and MCDM) cases. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to investigate the significance of this barrier in different age groups of disabled elderly. We found no significant differences among the three age groups of disabled elderly, which shows that the barrier "aging limitation (reduction in hearing. sight, memory, and fine motor control) " is the most significant barrier at each age group (when age ≥ 60) of disabled elderly. The average value of Grey Relational Grades (GRGaverage) and the sorting outcomes of the MCDM of the construct individual were higher than those of all other constructs. This study is the first of its kind to apply the DGRA. MCDM and KWT to expose the barriers while accessing eHealth services for the disabled elderly in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leasing is an important mode of service-oriented manufacturing where a manufacturer may lease machines from multiple suppliers to form a manufacturing system. While the suppliers provide machine maintenance, their individual interests may not be necessarily optimal to the system. Therefore, we propose a maintenance modeling and lease pricing (MMLP) framework to find the optimal maintenance policy for the system, and make a lease pricing scheme as an incentive mechanism to promote the realization of the cooperative maintenance among the suppliers. An optimization model is established to obtain a long-term maintenance policy by minimizing a cost rate function. And then, the grey lease pricing scheme based on the fair allocation of the benefits from the cooperation is suggested, with the marginal contribution of each supplier in the cooperation measured by the grey Shapley value method. Finally, a case study is used to show the application of the MMLP framework, presenting that the joining of the suppliers can make maintenance cost reduced and that the lease prices determined by using the grey Shapley value demonstrate the emergence and risk of the cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grey forecasting models have found extensive applications across various domains, but the connection between their theory and practice has not yet been fully revealed. This paper seeks to discuss the modelling mechanism of grey forecasting models from the perspective of dynamic system modelling and illustrate how to establish grey forecasting models to address real-world challenges. Firstly, we outline the grey forecasting models under the traditional and direct frameworks. Then, the problem description and model assumptions of grey forecasting models are discussed by incorporating model characteristics and Prof. Deng's original concepts. The complete process of model establishment as well as the purpose and tasks of each step is elaborated in detail. Ultimately, taking the inventory of perishable products as a case study, this article discusses the utilization of grey forecasting models in inventory management and elucidates the application process using citrus as a specific example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The grey predator-prey model is widely applied in many fields for its effectiveness. While most of the research on the grey predator-prey model focuses on the different model forms, less attention has been paid to identifying parameters and initial value from noisy data. In this work, considering the measurement noise in practice, we propose a two-stage approach to estimate the structural parameters and initial value of the grey predator-prey model with integro-differential equations(IDEs). First, by introducing an integral operator, we propose another form of the grey predator-prey model, namely the IDE-based grey predator-prey model. Next, we develop a parameter estimation approach based on the idea of a two-stage in the presence of measurement noise, where in the first stage we smooth time series using cubic B-Spline and in the second stage estimate structural parameters and initial conditions by the separable nonlinear least squares. Then, the finite sample performance of the IDE-based model is investigated with Monte Carlo numerical experiments. Results demonstrate that the IDE-based model has better performance in terms of accuracy than the Cusum-based model. Finally, we use a case to further verify the accuracy and stability of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy consumption is closely linked to a country's economic activity. For most developing countries making efforts to shift to industry-driven economies, the relationship between energy consumption and economic activity cannot be overemphasized. This study, therefore, employs the Laspeyres Index Decomposition (LID) analysis to decompose the change in energy demand into five driving factors according to three effects. The derived factors are then combined with the first order multivariable grey forecast model to form the hybrid model, LID-GM(1,6). The model is applied to the energy consumption situation of Ghana as a case study. The decomposition analysis gives insight into which economic sectors are accountable for the energy demand changes that occurred during the period 2006-2019, and thus serves as a guide for policymaking. The significance of this paper lies in its contribution to the development of the GM(1,N) prediction models. The grey forecast model, based on factors derived from an index decomposition analysis, is used to predict total energy consumed annually in Ghana from 2020 to 2030. The LID-GM(1,6) is evaluated for forecast accuracy and compared with other models. The LID-GM(1,6) has an out-of-sample MAPE of 3.77%, signifying an accuracy of approximately 96%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The solution offinancing demand is one of the drivingforcesfor the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, and scientific and reasonable credit evaluation is an important way to alleviate the difficulty and expensive financing Of enterprises. To address the uncertainty in enterprise credit evaluation. a dynamic evaluation method based on grey cloud similarity is proposed by combining grey incidence analysis and cloud model theory. Firstly, combining the expectation, entropy, and hyper entropy of the cloud model, the grey cloud similarity based on the inner or outer boundary curve is defined by drawing on the concept of the degree of grey incidence and the feature of the grey cloud similarity that can lake the three digital characteristics of the cloud model into account, low computational complexity and high stability are summarized. Then, a multi-attribute coniprehensive evaluation method is established considering randomness, fuzziness, and dynamic, and the dynamic evaluation information is aggregated by time-series weights to assess the rating of the evaluated object over a period of tinte. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of fhe proposed method are verified by the credit rating evaluation case of 10 small and medium-sized listed enterprises in the Growth Enterprise Market of Shenzhen Stock Exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the development level and trend of grey system theory (GST) over the past 40 years based on bibliometrics. Literature was searched using the Web of Science (WoS) databases. Literature analysis was carried out from eight aspects: paper publication, main journals publishing GST and its application, 20 highly cited articles, hot research topics, high-output scholars and their cooperation networks, the geographical distribution of scholars, finding agencies, and a comparison between papers obtained from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and WoS databases. Bibliometric analysis showed that while GST had developed slowly over the initial 20 years, it experienced a period of high-speed development over the last 20 years. Two journals the Journal of Grey System and Grey Systems: Theory and Application-play key roles in promoting the international development of GST. Professor Sifeng Liu and Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics have been the most influential scholar and research center in GST, respectively. GST has attracted many scholars worldwide, and the number of papers published in international journals is increasing. A comparison of publications related to GST between CNKI and WoS databases showed that more efforts are required for GST to become more international. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, China's aging population is becoming increasingly prominent. Accurately predicting the number and density distribution Of the elderly population in the fitfure is conducive to accelerating the development of aged care services and has important reference value for fornmlating relevant policies and social development. In ihis paper, a novel SM-FGM model is constructed to predict the quantity and densio · distribution of the elderly poptilation in Nanjingfrom 2021 to 2030. The combined model combines the advantages of fractional-order accunmlation and self-memory algorithm and has good prediction accuracy and generalization ability. Fractional-order accimmlation can effectively weaken the randomness of the original dam sequence, and the memory function in the self-memory algorithm breaks through the limitation thal the traditional grey model is sensitive lo the initial value. The results show thal the Humber of elderly people in Nanjing's administrative districts will show a high base and high growth trend in the next 10 years. There are significant differences in the density of elderly people among the administrative districts. The density of elderly people iii the central city is higher and becomes a dense area for the elderly, and the population density gradually decreases with the direction of suburban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study seeks to create an optimal investment portfolio by applying grey principal components analysis (GPCA) to financial performance evaluation. The GPCA model concomitantly relies on the advantages of grey systems theory (requiring no definite range of data distribution and using limited data) and those of principal components analysis (reducing variable dimensionality, assigning fitted weights to variables, providing multivariate evaluation). This study uses 25 financial indicators to evaluate the financial perforniance and determine optimal investment portfolios in 28 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange within five years from 2015 to 2019. The grey relations matrix is created through grey relational analysis and replaces the covariance matrix in the principal components analysis method. To verify the model, TOPSIS is used, and a correlation coefficient test is conducted between the results of the two models across the five vears. The significant correlation between the techniques confirms the validity of the model. Furthermore, to decide the most important jinancial ratios affecting the companies' evaluation, the correlation between each of the ratios and the results of the model solution is computed. The findings show that total assets, return on total assets, net working capital, current ratio, the price at the end of the period, and return on common stockholders are the most important financial ratios in the ranking of the companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An operational ability assessment system for older adults is of great help to address health and social challenges for ageing. In this paper, the main problems in currently available ADL and ability evaluation systems have been analyzed. The basic principles to build an index system for disability elders evaluation have been put forwarded. Then, an improved Barthel index system for ADL evaluation and a new older adults ability evaluation system consisted of 4 first-level indexes and 14 secondary indexes based on experts' opinion and the ability assessment system for older adults by Ministiy of Civil Affairs of China have been built. The grey clustering model based on end-point mixed triangular possibility function has been introduced. And three living examples of adults' disability evaluation have been conducted. It is confirmed clearly that the three older adults belong to different categories of "severe disability", "mild disability", and "ability passable" respectively. The research results can be used as reference for government to formulate the elderly-care policies, to run and allocate the elderly-care resources, as well as reference for various nursing or elderly-care institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The air quality index (AQI) has been highly valued by many countries and cities as a directional indicator reflecting regional pollution status. The existing AQI only highlights the level of the most polluted pollutant. This paper constructed a new evaluation index by integrating all pollution indicators based on the grey fixed weight clustering analysis model, then a case study was carried out involving 74 cities in China to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the evaluation method proposed in this paper is more scientific, which can not only effectively measure the comprehensive pollution level of each city, but also give pollution control strategies for each city from multiple indicators and has achieved good empirical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking into consideration a dynamic development of research concerning grey systems theory (GST), it is extremely important to determine a classification of research problems, which appear in GST, in a rational and logical way. Therefore, the purpose of the article was creating a new concept of classification of grey systems theory issues. To achieve this purpose, a category of a grey space was used, which is a basis for an axiomatic definition of a concept of greyness of information. Thus, epistemological bases of grey systems theory such as a subject, a research perspective, and a place of GST in the structure of sciences were discussed in the article. Subsequently, making use of a concept of grey space, a criterion of practical and theoretical problems' demarcation was determined. As a result, new theoretical research framework for GST was established and strengths and weaknesses of this methodolog\> were indicated in the context of its use in social science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grey variable weight clustering method, based on possibility function with flexible endpoint, has a problem with its clustering results while the continuation coefficient is overlarge. To solve this problem, grey variable weight clustering method is modified via defining modified grey clustering coefficient based on standard deviation. Further, grey degree of cluster is proposed to describe the effect of different grey clustering methods, and a consistent clustering coefficient is defined to extend the method to clustering problems with any grey classes. Finally, the effectiveness of modified method is proved though the application to the evaluation of enterprise credit risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The grey number is a basic element of the Grey System. Due to there is a dispute about how to describe and character grey number, and the grey number algorithm borrowed from other uncertainty theory. Therefore, how to form exclusive and normative computation regulations had long puzzled scholars. This paper aimed to establish the grey number linear algorithm based on linear space. The concept of the grey number was redefined under grey information elements. Then the grey vector, grey basis, and grey vector space were further defined. General grey number linear operations were defined based on grey vector space. Finally, two numerical cases were adopted to test the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Results show that the grey number and its operations could be established under the framework of linear space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This manuscript aims to summarize the evolution of grey forecasting models and their applications in recent three decades and digs out several valuable research directions of grey forecasting models. Firstly, general process of grey forecasting modelling and theoretical principles of grey models GM (1, 1) and GM (1, N) were defined. Subsequently, theoretical breakthroughs and real practical applications were summarized and detailed discussed. Theoretical breakthroughs emphasized on modelling sequences generating methods, optimization of the background values and grey derivative, parameters solving and optimization, novel model construction and models ' properties analysis. While practical applications covered economic forecasting and management analysis, energy analysis and management, agriculture and resources forecasting, environment and calamity forecasting, etc. Finally, several possible research trends of grey forecasting models are proposed. Framework of grey forecasting approach could be referred to solve different real applications. Summarized thinking about the trend of grey forecasting models and applications could point out the directions of grey forecasting research and help to find valuable questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The basic framework of grey system theory initiated by Professor Julong Deng, the founder of grey system theory is introduced. The most used new thinking, methods, and models of grey system theory are presented in this paper. Such as algorithm rules of grey numbers based on the "Kernel" and the degree of greyness of grey numbers, the concept of general grey number, the synthesis axiom of degree oj greyness of grey numbers and their operations; a most used weakening buffer operator which with good properties the general form of buffer operator of grey sequence operator; the four basic models of GM(1,1), such as Even Grey Model(EGM), Original Difference Grey Model(ODGM), Even Difference Grey Model(EDGM), Discrete Grey Model(DGM) and the suitable sequence type of each basic model, and suitable range of most used grey forecasting model; the absolute degree of grey incidence, the relative degree of grey incidence, the synthetic degree of grey incidence the similarity degree of grey incidence, the closeness degree of grey incidence and the three dimensions absolute degree of grey incidence of grey incidence analysis models; the grey cluster model based on mixed center-point and end-point mixed triangular whitenization weight functions; the multi-attribute intelligent grey target decision model, the two stages decision model with grey synthetic measure of grey decision model; grey game model, grey input-output model of grey combined models; and the problems of robust stability for grey stochastic time-delay systems of neutral type, distributed-delay type and neutral distributed-delay type of grey control, etc. Then a new model system and framework of grey system theory have been presented at last. The reader could know the general picture of research and developing trend of grey system theory by this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To compare interval grey weights more reasonably, this paper proposes a novel probability degree solving approach, termed a graph-algebra approach, in which two different interval grey weights are separately set as axes of a two dimensional graph where lower and upper boundaries of these two weights are identified as a rectangular comparison area. By dividing the area with the angle bisector of the first quadrant, a novel probability degree measure is defined and its equations are given. The relationships and differences between the proposed approach and old ones are discussed and proved. Results show that the proposed approach is more reasonable and conforms to the interval grey number definition more closely than the old ones. Finally, an illustrative example is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- The purpose of this paper is to propose novel civil aircraft cost parameters' selection method and novel cost estimation approach for civil aircraft so as to effectively simulate or forecast civil aircraft cost under poor information and small sample. Design/methodology/approach -- Based on existent cost estimation indexes, this paper summarized civil aircraft research and manufacturing cost impact index system and adopted grey relational model to select most important impact factors. Consider civil aircrafts' cost information could not be easily collected, the author must estimate their costs with limited sample and poor information. A combination model of GM ( 0, N ) model and BP neural network algorithm is proposed. Both advantages of simulation of BP neural network algorithm and poor information generation of GM ( 0, N ) were effectively combined. Then steps of combined model were given out. Finally, nine types of aircrafts were used to test the validity of proposed model. As comparing with the traditional multiple linear regression model and simple GM (0, N ) model, results indicated that proposed model can do the work better. Findings -- Grey relational model can be applied for parameters' selection and combined GM (0, N) model and BP neural network algorithm can estimate aircraft's cost as well. Results show that novel combined model could get high forecasting accuracy. Practical implications -- Cost estimation is key problem in production management of civil aircraft. Effective cost management could promote competitiveness of aircraft manufacturing company. Proposed combined model can be applied for civil aircraft cost estimation. Similarly, it could be applied for other complex equipment cost estimation. Originality/value -- The paper succeeds in proposing grey relational model for cost parameters' selection and constructing a combination model of GM (0, N) model and BP neural network algorithm. Algorithm of the proposed model was discussed and steps were given out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- The purpose of this paper is to construct index system of international cooperation project selection, propose a grey cluster model for project selection and apply propose model for Jiangsu international cooperation key-technology projects selection. Design/methodology/approach -- Considering supply of international cooperation project is different with its demand, and regional key cooperation technologies should consider urgency and possibility of project cooperation, the author separately construct index groups for supply and demand. To aggregate assessment information of each cooperation project, whitenization function for each index is constructed and then cluster coefficient of index group could be aggregated by using each index and its weight information. Fixed weight grey cluster model is redefined and applied for selecting international cooperation project. And steps of calculation of model are given out. Real application of Jiangsu international cooperation projects' selection is used for demonstrating process of the proposed model. Findings -- Results show that constructed indexes of international cooperation project selection can be used for selecting regional cooperation projects well. And proposed fixed weight grey cluster model can aggregate all indexes information well. Therefore, proposed indexes and model in this manuscript is effective and also it can be used for solving similar problems. Practical implications -- Jiangsu province is a developed region of China, and its international cooperation is more active than other regions accordingly. Constructed indexes of international cooperation project selection and fixed weight grey cluster model can help government to select needed projects easily. Originality/value -- This manuscript first define a demand as urgency and supply as possibility, and a new index system of international cooperation project selection is constructed with several urgency indexes and several possibility indexes. And a new assessment model, named as fixed weight grey cluster model, is proposed to aggregate indexes' information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to investigate system main variable forecasting problems with grey number information, in which the true values about the variable sequence are incompletely known while the potential value sets could be defined In order to analyze the forecasting interval of developing trend of system main variable, we established a novel single variable discrete grey forecasting model named IN-DGM model. For solving the parameters and simulative sequence of proposed model, we redefined the concepts of grey number and its algebraic algorithm. In the calculating process, two nonlinear programming models were created to solve the simulative and forecasting sequence, in which every grey number is viewed as a variable. A real application about China's gross domestic product forecasting is used to demonstrate the feasibility and practicability of the 1N-DGM model The results indicated that the model can catch the development trend much better than DGM (1, 1) model GM (1, 1) model time-vary linear regression model and time-vary exponential curve model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air pollution has become a serious problem in China. The Ministry of Environmental Protection of China releases real-time air quality monitoring data of 74 major cities online. This thesis applies grey incidence analysis to assess the air quality of 12 monitoring stations by considering all the six indicators instead of the maximum value. The research shows that the two methods achieve similar results. The main reason for the difference between the result of two methods is that the method released by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China adopt the maximum individual air quality index as air quality index, however, this research takes all the individual air quality indexes into full account to comprehensively assess air quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current grey forecasting models are mainly constructed on the sequences which approximate to grey exponential rule rather than the rule of curve developing with limited upper boundary. Considering there is a great deal similar cases or problems lied in reality, this paper aims to create a novel discrete grey forecasting model for solving problems approximate to such curve developing rule. Based on analyzing principles and feedback process of general single variable grey forecasting model, a novel model named DGM (1, 1, m) model is constructed and its parameters' solution is given out. In addition, simulative properties of the proposed model are further discussed. Finally, an illustrate example about raw material price index (RMPI) forecasting is utilized to demonstrate the simulative and forecasting accuracies. As comparing with quadratic polynomial regression model and grey Verhulst model, the results indicated that the proposed model is much better than other two models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulation precision of conventional grey prediction models is poor when modeling sequence has the feature of oscillation. Actually, the smoother the sequence is, the higher the simulation precision is. With the purpose of perfecting the smoothness of oscillation sequence and improving the simulation precision of grey models, this paper researches a smoothing algorithm which can compress the amplitude of oscillation sequence, and by this algorithm, deduces a novel grey prediction model based on oscillation sequence. Finally, we employ the new model to forecast the electricity demand of a city in western China, and compare the simulation precision with other grey models, the results shows the new model has the best simulation effect. Research findings have an important significance to enrich and perfect grey system theory and construct a more reasonable electricity demand prediction model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]