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In February 1963, a huge landslide (ca. 1,950,000 m3) blocked the Visočica River and, thus, formed Zavoj Lake. The primary objective of this research was to investigate the importance of snowmelt in relation to landslide occurrence and to define the critical climatic conditions that may trigger massive winter landslides. We used monthly precipitation and average monthly maximum temperature data from meteorological and precipitation stations in the Visočica River basin (Dojkinci) and in the immediate proximity of Lake Zavoj (Pirot, Dimitrovgrad and Topli Do) as data inputs to the Snow-Melt Landslide (SML) index. It considers the summed monthly precipitation for previous months that continuously have an average maximum temperature below 0 °C. According to this method, the event at Zavoj Lake stands out among all other precipitation and snowmelt values for the past 72 years. After applying the SML index, all stations showed values of >300 mm for February 1963, which we consider as the threshold value for potential landslides appearance. In addition to meteorological data, we applied the SML index to data from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) regional climate model outputs for the region from 2022 to 2100. As expected, climate change will have influenced the temperature values, especially during the winter. Conversely, the study area is experiencing drastic changes in land use caused by depopulation, leading to a reduced risk of winter landslides in the Visočica basin. We suggest that future climatic conditions in the area will make it more likely to experience extreme summer precipitation events, which might trigger large landslides. The SML method can be implemented for all landscapes that experience snowy winters, providing information in a timely manner so that local residents can react properly when the probability of landslide occurrence rises. The SML index, grounded in essential meteorological principles, provides a tailor-made, data-driven methodology applicable across varied geographical settings. Its utility extends to mitigating hydro-meteorological hazards on scales ranging from local to national scales, offering diverse and effective early warning solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) responds to natural variability is of key importance for future climate projections under a warming climate. However, there is no clear consensus on what drives ENSO's variability on centennial timescales. Here, we find that the epikarst in southeastern Alaska is effective at filtering ENSO and solar irradiance signals from the Aleutian Low regional climate, which are subsequently recorded in speleothem proxy data. By applying a correlation test, we find that ENSO was significantly influenced by solar irradiance over the past ∼3,500 years. This relationship dissolved after ∼1970 CE, with ENSO now being dominated by anthropogenic forcing. This implies a new ENSO mean state that will need to be incorporated into future climate projections. Plain Language Summary: Although El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important climate phenomena globally, it is currently unknown how ENSO responds to natural variability on timescales over 100 years. Natural variability refers to periodic changes in climate due to either solar forcing, the circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, volcanic eruptions, and other factors, irrespective of human intervention. Here, we help solve this problem by studying deposits in caves (speleothems) from Alaska. The speleothems are excellent at capturing atmospheric conditions over the past 3,500 years, and show that solar forcing was significantly controlling ENSO variability. However, the speleothems also show that humans have altered this natural variability, with ENSO entering a new mean state after ∼1970 CE. Key Points: Speleothems from southeastern Alaska capture El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability through a teleconnection with the Aleutian LowENSO variability was strongly influenced by solar forcing before ∼1970 CEENSO significantly changed properties at ∼1970 CE, likely due to anthropogenic forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is a powerful method for interrogating hydrological series since it combines observational time series from several sites within a region to estimate risk-relevant statistical parameters with higher accuracy than from single-site series. Since RFFA extreme value estimates depend on the shape of the selected distribution of the data-generating stochastic process, there is need for a suitable goodness-of-distributional-fit measure in order to optimally utilize given data. Here we present a novel, least-squares-based measure to select the optimal fit from a set of five distributions, namely Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic, Gumbel, Log-Normal Type III and Log-Pearson Type III. The fit metric is applied to annual maximum discharge series from six hydrological stations along the Sava River in South-eastern Europe, spanning the years 1961 to 2020. Results reveal that (1) the Sava River basin can be assessed as hydrologically homogeneous and (2) the GEV distribution provides typically the best fit. We offer hydrological-meteorological insights into the differences among the six stations. For the period studied, almost all stations exhibit statistically insignificant trends, which renders the conclusions about flood risk as relevant for hydrological sciences and the design of regional flood protection infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper., Author(s): Manfred Mudelsee [sup.1] [sup.3] , Michael Börngen [sup.1] , Gerd Tetzlaff [sup.1] , Uwe Grünewald [sup.2] Author Affiliations: (1) Institute of Meteorology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany (2) Institute [...]

Oxygen isotope and coarse fraction (CF) data gathered from an equatorial site in the western Pacific reflect dominance by a 100 ka signal component stemming from orbital forcing and that distinct spectral peaks exhibited in the CF data are related to local Milankovitch forcing. Critics argue, however, that the 100 ka signal may have been triggered by ice-bedrock interactions or carbon cycle implications and not solely by the orbital forcing theory. Furthermore, it is imperative to consider the signal-to-noise ratio prior to determining the effect of colored noise.

The last interglacial (LIG; Marine Isotope Substage 5e, ~127–117 ka) experienced globally warmer than modern temperatures; however, profound differences in regional climate occurred that are relevant to the assessment of future climate change scenarios. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and hydrology are intrinsic to the spatiotemporal evolution of past and future climate. We present eight monthly resolved coral Sr/Ca and δ18O records (130–118 ka) to reconstruct mean western tropical Atlantic SST and seawater δ18O changes during the LIG. Cooler and fresher than modern surface waters are indicated for the middle of the LIG at ~126 ka. This was followed by a rapid transition to modern‐like SSTs and salinities that characterized the remaining part of the LIG. Our results, which account for differences found among corals, proxies, and SST calibration uncertainties, agree with western tropical Atlantic sediment records. Together, they suggest that an oceanic regime existed that differed from today. Plain Language Summary: The last interglacial is a period of time that occurred approximately ~127 to 117 thousand years ago and experienced globally warmer than modern temperatures, similar to those predicted by computer simulations of future climate change. However, little is known about the temperature and hydrology of the tropical oceans at this time. We analyzed fossil Caribbean corals that lived between 130 and 118 thousand years ago and record within their structures the properties of the seawater they inhabited. From these we reconstructed snapshots of past mean sea surface temperatures and the changing influences of regional ocean currents. Surprisingly, we found cooler and fresher than modern surface waters occurred within the tropical Atlantic at ~126 thousand years ago, a time usually associated with peak global warming. These anomalous conditions were followed by a rapid transition to modern‐like sea surface temperatures and salinities that went on to define the remaining part of the LIG until ~118 ka. Our results agree with other reconstructions of last interglacial climate derived from tropical Atlantic sediment records. Together, they suggest changes in ocean currents that transport waters into the Caribbean and we highlight the complementary use of widely different marine archives to assess past climate change. Key Points: Last interglacial (LIG) coral Sr/Ca indicates 2.1 ± 0.7 °C cooler than modern tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures at ~126 kaPaired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O records indicate that fresher tropical Atlantic surface waters also occurred at ~126 kaCoral Sr/Ca and δ18O records complement lower resolution less precisely dated marine sedimentary records of tropical Atlantic LIG climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a computational program named BINCOR (BINned CORrelation) for estimating the correlation between two unevenly spaced time series. This program is also applicable to the situation of two evenly spaced time series not on the same time grid. BINCOR is based on a novel estimation approach proposed by Mudelsee (2010) for estimating the correlation between two climate time series with different timescales. The idea is that autocorrelation (e.g. an AR1 process) means that memory enables values obtained on different time points to be correlated. Binned correlation is performed by resampling the time series under study into time bins on a regular grid, assigning the mean values of the variable under scrutiny within those bins. We present two examples of our BINCOR package with real data: instrumental and paleoclimatic time series. In both applications BINCOR works properly in detecting well-established relationships between the climate records compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Red Sea is a deep marine basin often considered as small‐scale version of the global ocean. Hydrographic observations and ocean‐atmosphere modeling indicate Red Sea deep water was episodically renewed by wintertime open‐ocean deep convections during 1982–2001, suggesting a renewal time on the order of a decade. However, the long‐term pacing of Red Sea deep water renewals is largely uncertain. We use an annually resolved coral oxygen isotope record of winter surface water conditions to show that the late twentieth century deep water renewals were probably unusual in the context of the preceding ~100 years. More frequent major events are detected during the late Little Ice Age, particularly during the early nineteenth century characterized by large tropical volcanic eruptions. We conclude that Red Sea deep water renewal time is on the order of a decade up to a century, depending on the mean climatic conditions and large‐scale interannual climate forcing. Plain Language Summary: The Red Sea is a deep marine basin often considered as small‐scale version of the global ocean. Hydrographic observations and ocean‐atmosphere modeling indicate Red Sea deep water was episodically renewed by wintertime open‐ocean deep convections in the northern Red Sea during 1982–2001, suggesting a deep water renewal time on the order of a decade. However, the long‐term pacing of Red Sea deep water renewals is largely uncertain, due to lack of hydrographic observations. By using an annually resolved coral oxygen isotope record of winter surface water conditions in the northern Red Sea we show that the late twentieth century deep water renewals were probably unusual in the context of the preceding ~100 years. Our results suggest an absence of major deep water formation events until the 1883 Krakatau volcanic eruption. More frequent major events are detected during the late Little Ice Age, particularly during the early nineteenth century characterized by large tropical volcanic eruptions. From our long‐term perspective we conclude that Red Sea deep water renewal time is on the order of a decade up to a century, depending on the mean climatic conditions and large‐scale interannual climate forcing, which should be considered in management strategies of its unique ecosystems. Key Points: Observed frequent late twentieth century Red Sea deep water renewals were probably unusual in the context of the preceding ~100 yearsCoral proxy record suggests absence of major deep water formation events until the 1883 Krakatau volcanic eruptionMore frequent major Red Sea deep water formation events are detected during the early nineteenth century and late Little Ice Age [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Speleothem δO records provide valuable information about past continental environmental and climatic conditions, although their interpretation is often not straightforward. Here we evaluate a compilation of late Holocene speleothem δO records using a Monte Carlo based Principal Component Analysis (MC-PCA) method that accounts for uncertainties in individual speleothem age models and for the variable temporal resolution of each δO record. The MC-PCA approach permits not only the identification of temporally coherent changes in speleothem δO; it also facilitates their graphical depiction and evaluation of their spatial coherency. The MC-PCA method was applied to 11 Holocene speleothem δO records that span most of the European continent (apart from the circum-Mediterranean region). We observe a common (shared) mode of speleothem δO variability that suggests millennial-scale coherency and cyclicity during the last 4.5 ka. These changes are likely caused by variability in atmospheric circulation akin to that associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, reflecting meridionally shifted westerlies. We argue that these common large-scale variations in European speleothem δO records are in phase with changes in the North Atlantic Ocean circulation indicated by the vigour of the Iceland Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW), the strength of the subpolar gyre (SPG) and an ocean stacked North Atlantic ice rafted debris (IRD) index. Based on a recent modelling study, we conclude that these changes in the North Atlantic circulation history may be caused by wind stress on the ocean surface driven by shifted westerlies. However, the mechanisms that ultimately force the westerlies remain unclear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tail probability, P, of the distribution of a variable is important for risk analysis of extremes. Many variables in complex geophysical systems show heavy tails, where P decreases with the value, x, of a variable as a power law with a characteristic exponent, α. Accurate estimation of α on the basis of data is currently hindered by the problem of the selection of the order, that is, the number of largest x values to utilize for the estimation. This paper presents a new, widely applicable, data-adaptive order selector, which is based on computer simulations and brute force search. It is the first in a set of papers on optimal heavy tail estimation. The new selector outperforms competitors in a Monte Carlo experiment, where simulated data are generated from stable distributions and AR(1) serial dependence. We calculate error bars for the estimated α by means of simulations. We illustrate the method on an artificial time series. We apply it to an observed, hydrological time series from the River Elbe and find an estimated characteristic exponent of 1:48±0:13. This result indicates finite mean but infinite variance of the statistical distribution of river runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate signal maps can be used to identify regions where robust climate changes can be derived from an ensemble of climate change simulations. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Climate signal maps do not show all information available from the model ensemble, but give a condensed view in order to be useful for non-climate scientists who have to assess climate change impact during the course of their work. Three different ensembles of regional climate projections have been analyzed regarding changes of seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (defined as the number of days exceeding the 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation) for Germany, using climate signal maps. Although the models used and the scenario assumptions differ for the three ensembles (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 vs. RCP8.5 vs. A1B), some similarities in the projections of future seasonal and extreme precipitation can be seen. For the winter season, both mean and extreme precipitation are projected to increase. The strength, robustness and regional pattern of this increase, however, depends on the ensemble. For summer, a robust decrease of mean precipitation can be detected only for small regions in southwestern Germany and only from two of the three ensembles, whereas none of them projects a robust increase of summer extreme precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a compilation of planktic and benthic 14C reservoir ages for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and early deglacial from 11 key sites of global ocean circulation in the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Ocean. The ages were obtained by 14C plateau tuning, a robust technique to derive both an absolute chronology for marine sediment records and a high-resolution record of changing reservoir/ventilation ages (Δ14C values) for surface and deep waters by comparing the suite of planktic 14C plateaus of a sediment record with that of the atmospheric 14C record. Results published thus far have used as atmospheric 14C reference U/Th-dated corals, the Cariaco planktic record, and speleothems. We have now used the varve-counted atmospheric 14C record of Lake Suigetsu terrestrial macrofossils to recalibrate the boundary ages and reservoir ages of the seven published records directly to an atmospheric 14C record. In addition, the results for four new cores and further planktic results for four published records are given. Main conclusions from the new compilation are the following: (1) The Suigetsu atmospheric 14C record on its varve-counted timescale reflects all 14C plateaus, their internal structures, and relative length previously identified, but implies a rise in the average 14C plateau age by 200-700 14C yr during the LGM and early deglacial times. (2) Based on different 14C ages of coeval atmospheric and planktic 14C plateaus, marine surface water Δ14C may have temporarily dropped to an equivalent of ~0 yr in low-latitude lagoon waters, but reached >2500 14C yr both in stratified subpolar waters and in upwelled waters such as in the South China Sea. These values differ significantly from a widely assumed constant global planktic Δ14C value of 400 yr. (3) Suites of deglacial planktic Δ14C values are closely reproducible in 14C records measured at neighboring core sites. (4) Apparent deep-water 14C ventilation ages (equivalents of benthic Δ14C), deduced from the sum of planktic Δ14C and coeval benthic-planktic 14C differences, vary from 500 up to >5000 yr in LGM and deglacial ocean basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Citarum river basin of western Java, Indonesia, which supplies water to 10 million residents in Jakarta, has become increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic change. Citarum's streamflow record, only ~45 years in length (1963-present), is too short for understanding the full range of hydrometeorological variability in this important region. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of September-November Citarum streamflow (AD 1759-2006), one of the first such records available for monsoon Asia. Close coupling is observed between decreased tree growth and low streamflow levels, which in turn are associated with drought caused by ENSO warm events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean positive dipole-type variability. Over the full length of record, reconstructed variance was at its weakest during the interval from ~1905-1960, overlapping with a period of unusually-low variability (1920-1960) in the ENSO-Indian Ocean dipole systems. In subsequent decades, increased variance in both the streamflow anomalies and a coral-based SST reconstruction of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode signal the potential for intensified drought activity and related consequences for water supply and crop productivity in western Java, where much of the country's rice is grown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated changes in wildfire risk over the 1901−2002 (ad) period with an analysis of broad-scale patterns of July monthly drought code (MDC) variability on 28 forested ecoregions of the North American and Eurasian continents. The MDC is an estimate of the net effect of changes in evapotranspiration and precipitation on cumulative moisture depletion in soils, and is well correlated with annual fire statistics across the circumboreal (explaining 25–61% of the variance in regional area burned). We used linear trend and regime shift analyses to investigate (multi-) decadal changes in MDC and percentage area affected by drought, and kernel function for analysis of temporal changes in the occurrence rates of extreme drought years. Our analyses did not reveal widespread patterns of linear increases in dryness through time as a response to rising Northern Hemisphere land temperatures. Instead, we found heterogeneous patterns of drought severity changes that were inherent to the nonuniformly distributed impacts of climate change on dryness. Notably, significant trends toward increasing summer moisture in southeastern and southwestern boreal Canada were detected. The diminishing wildfire risk in these regions is coherent with widely reported decreases in area burned since about 1850, as reconstructed by dendrochronological dating of forest stands. Conversely, we found evidence for increasing percentage area affected by extreme droughts in Eurasia (+0.57% per decade; P<0.05) and occurrence rates of extreme drought years in Eurasian taiga (centered principally on the Okhotsk–Manchurian taiga, P=0.07). Although not statistically significant, temporal changes in occurrence rates are sufficiently important spatially to be paid further attention. The absence of a linear trend in MDC severity, in conjunction with the presence of an increase in the occurrence rate of extreme drought years, suggest that fire disturbance regimes in the Eurasian taiga could be shifting toward being increasingly pulse dependent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]