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Purpose: Post-operative complications following emergency abdominal surgery are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite the knowledge of prognostic factors associated with poor surgical outcomes; few have described risks of poor outcomes based on admission information in acute surgical setting. We aimed to derive a simple, point-of-care risk scale that predicts adults with increased risk of poor outcomes. Methods: We used data from an international multi-centre prospective cohort study. The effect of characteristics; age, hypoalbuminaemia, anaemia, renal insufficiency and polypharmacy on 90-day mortality was examined using fully adjusted multivariable models. For our secondary outcome we aimed to test whether these characteristics could be combined to predict poor outcomes in adults undergoing emergency general surgery. Subsequently, the impact of incremental increase in derived SHARP score on outcomes was assessed. Results: The cohort consisted of 419 adult patients between the ages of 16–94 years (median 52; IQR(39) consecutively admitted to five emergency general surgical units across the United Kingdom and one in Ghent, Belgium. In fully adjusted models the aforementioned characteristics; were associated with 90-day mortality. SHARP score was associated with higher odds of mortality in adults who underwent emergency general surgery, with a SHARP score of five also being associated with an increased length of hospital stay. Conclusions: SHARP risk score is a simple prognostic tool, using point-of-care information to predict poor outcomes in patients undergoing emergency general surgery. This information may be used to improve management plans and aid clinicians in delivering more person-centred care. Further validation studies are required to prove its utility.

Background: Whilst there is literature on the impact of SARS viruses in the severely immunosuppressed, less is known about the link between routine immunosuppressant use and outcome in COVID-19. Consequently, guidelines on their use vary depending on specific patient populations. Methods: The study population was drawn from the COPE Study (COVID-19 in Older People), a multicentre observational cohort study, across the UK and Italy. Data were collected between 27 February and 28 April 2020 by trained data-collectors and included all unselected consecutive admissions with COVID-19. Load (name/number of medications) and dosage of immunosuppressant were collected along with other covariate data. Primary outcome was time-to-mortality from the date of admission (or) date of diagnosis, if diagnosis was five or more days after admission. Secondary outcomes were Day-14 mortality and time-to-discharge. Data were analysed with mixed-effects, Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models using non-users of immunosuppressants as the reference group. Results: In total 1184 patients were eligible for inclusion. The median (IQR) age was 74 (62–83), 676 (57%) were male, and 299 (25.3%) died in hospital (total person follow-up 15,540 days). Most patients exhibited at least one comorbidity, and 113 (~10%) were on immunosuppressants. Any immunosuppressant use was associated with increased mortality: aHR 1.87, 95% CI: 1.30, 2.69 (time to mortality) and aOR 1.71, 95% CI: 1.01–2.88 (14-day mortality). There also appeared to be a dose–response relationship. Conclusion: Despite possible indication bias, until further evidence emerges we recommend adhering to public health measures, a low threshold to seek medical advice and close monitoring of symptoms in those who take immunosuppressants routinely regardless of their indication. However, it should be noted that the inability to control for the underlying condition requiring immunosuppressants is a major limitation, and hence caution should be exercised in interpretation of the results. Plain Language Summary Regular Use of Immune Suppressing Drugs is Associated with Increased Risk of Death in Hospitalised Patients with COVID-19 Background: We do not have much information on how the COVID-19 virus affects patients who use immunosuppressants, drugs which inhibit or reduce the activity of the immune system. There are various conflicting views on whether immune-suppressing drugs are beneficial or detrimental in patients with the disease. Methods: This study collected data from 10 hospitals in the UK and one in Italy between February and April 2020 in order to identify any association between the regular use of immunosuppressant medicines and survival in patients who were admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Results: 1184 patients were included in the study, and 10% of them were using immunosuppressants. Any immunosuppressant use was associated with increased risk of death, and the risk appeared to increase if the dose of the medicine was higher. Conclusion: We therefore recommend that patients who take immunosuppressant medicines routinely should carefully adhere to social distancing measures, and seek medical attention early during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objective: During the COVID-19 pandemic the continuation or cessation of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) has been contentious. Mechanisms have been proposed for both beneficial and detrimental effects. Recent studies have focused on mortality with no literature having examined length of hospital stay. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of ACEi and ARBs on COVID-19 mortality and length of hospital stay. Methods: COPE (COVID-19 in Older People) is a multicenter observational study including adults of all ages admitted with either laboratory or clinically confirmed COVID-19. Routinely generated hospital data were collected. Primary outcome: mortality; secondary outcomes: Day-7 mortality and length of hospital stay. A mixed-effects multivariable Cox’s proportional baseline hazards model and logistic equivalent were used. Results: 1371 patients were included from eleven centres between 27th February to 25th April 2020. Median age was 74 years [IQR 61–83]. 28.6% of patients were taking an ACEi or ARB. There was no effect of ACEi or ARB on inpatient mortality (aHR = 0.85, 95%CI 0.65–1.11). For those prescribed an ACEi or ARB, hospital stay was significantly reduced (aHR = 1.25, 95%CI 1.02–1.54, p = 0.03) and in those with hypertension the effect was stronger (aHR = 1.39, 95%CI 1.09–1.77, p = 0.007). Conclusions: Patients and clinicians can be reassured that prescription of an ACEi or ARB at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis is not harmful. The benefit of prescription of an ACEi or ARB in reducing hospital stay is a new finding.

Introduction This protocol describes an observational study which set out to assess whether frailty and/or multimorbidity correlates with short-term and medium-term outcomes in patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in a European, multicentre setting.Methods and analysis Over a 3-month period we aim to recruit a minimum of 500 patients across 10 hospital sites, collecting baseline data including: patient demographics; presence of comorbidities; relevant blood tests on admission; prescription of ACE inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers/non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs/immunosuppressants; smoking status; Clinical Frailty Score (CFS); length of hospital stay; mortality and readmission. All patients receiving inpatient hospital care >18 years who receive a diagnosis of COVID-19 are eligible for inclusion. Long-term follow-up at 6 and 12 months is planned. This will assess frailty, quality of life and medical complications.Our primary analysis will be short-term and long-term mortality by CFS, adjusted for age (18–64, 65–80 and >80) and gender. We will carry out a secondary analysis of the primary outcome by including additional clinical mediators which are determined statistically important using a likelihood ratio test. All analyses will be presented as crude and adjusted HR and OR with associated 95% CIs and p values.Ethics and dissemination This study has been registered, reviewed and approved by the following: Health Research Authority (20/HRA1898); Ethics Committee of Hospital Policlinico Modena, Italy (369/2020/OSS/AOUMO); Health and Care Research Permissions Service, Wales; and NHS Research Scotland Permissions Co-ordinating Centre, Scotland. All participating units obtained approval from their local Research and Development department consistent with the guidance from their relevant national organisation.Data will be reported as a whole cohort. This project will be submitted for presentation at a national or international surgical and geriatric conference. Manuscript(s) will be prepared following the close of the project.

Summary: Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented strain on health-care systems. Frailty is being used in clinical decision making for patients with COVID-19, yet the prevalence and effect of frailty in people with COVID-19 is not known. In the COVID-19 in Older PEople (COPE) study we aimed to establish the prevalence of frailty in patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to hospital and investigate its association with mortality and duration of hospital stay. Methods: This was an observational cohort study conducted at ten hospitals in the UK and one in Italy. All adults (≥18 years) admitted to participating hospitals with COVID-19 were included. Patients with incomplete hospital records were excluded. The study analysed routinely generated hospital data for patients with COVID-19. Frailty was assessed by specialist COVID-19 teams using the clinical frailty scale (CFS) and patients were grouped according to their score (1–2=fit; 3–4=vulnerable, but not frail; 5–6=initial signs of frailty but with some degree of independence; and 7–9=severe or very severe frailty). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality (time from hospital admission to mortality and day-7 mortality). Findings: Between Feb 27, and April 28, 2020, we enrolled 1564 patients with COVID-19. The median age was 74 years (IQR 61–83); 903 (57·7%) were men and 661 (42·3%) were women; 425 (27·2%) had died at data cutoff (April 28, 2020). 772 (49·4%) were classed as frail (CFS 5–8) and 27 (1·7%) were classed as terminally ill (CFS 9). Compared with CFS 1–2, the adjusted hazard ratios for time from hospital admission to death were 1·55 (95% CI 1·00–2·41) for CFS 3–4, 1·83 (1·15–2·91) for CFS 5–6, and 2·39 (1·50–3·81) for CFS 7–9, and adjusted odds ratios for day-7 mortality were 1·22 (95% CI 0·63–2·38) for CFS 3–4, 1·62 (0·81–3·26) for CFS 5–6, and 3·12 (1·56–6·24) for CFS 7–9. Interpretation: In a large population of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, disease outcomes were better predicted by frailty than either age or comorbidity. Our results support the use of CFS to inform decision making about medical care in adult patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Funding: None.

Introduction The incidence of thyroid cancer has increased worldwide, whether a real or apparent increase is debated. Literature from the USA suggests greater diagnostic scrutiny, environmental and genetic factors may all play a part. This increase will result in a greater number of referrals for surgical assessment. This study examined the trend in incidence of thyroid cancer in England and Wales. Materials and Methods A retrospective study, using the HES database over the period 2000-2010. Data were extracted of all newly diagnosed thyroid cancers in England and Wales and the age at diagnosis. Data were examined for the change in incidence of thyroid cancer diagnosis dependent on the age group of the patient using the linear regression model. Results 45411 patients were identified. In England the incidence of thyroid cancer rose from 5.7/100,000 of the population in 2000 to 9.9/100,000 in 2010 and in Wales it rose from 3.5/100,000 in 2000 to 7.5/100,000. There was a statistical increase (P≤0.02) (t-stat >2) in the diagnosis of thyroid cancers across all age groups with exception of the 0-14 age group (P>0.5). Conclusion There has been a statistical increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer. This is likely to impact on hospitals and cancer service resources. An increase in surgical demand and the coinciding ageing population highlights the importance of further investigation into the etiology, use of imaging, patient demographics, histology and overall mortality of this patient group.

Introduction The incidence of thyroid cancer has increased worldwide, whether a real or apparent increase is debated. Literature from the USA suggests greater diagnostic scrutiny, environmental and genetic factors may all play a part. This increase will result in a greater number of referrals for surgical assessment. This study examined the trend in incidence of thyroid cancer in England and Wales. Materials and Methods A retrospective study, using the HES database over the period 2000-2010. Data were extracted of all newly diagnosed thyroid cancers in England and Wales and the age at diagnosis. Data were examined for the change in incidence of thyroid cancer diagnosis dependent on the age group of the patient using the linear regression model. Results 45411 patients were identified. In England the incidence of thyroid cancer rose from 5.7/100,000 of the population in 2000 to 9.9/100,000 in 2010 and in Wales it rose from 3.5/100,000 in 2000 to 7.5/100,000. There was a statistical increase (P≤0.02) (t-stat >2) in the diagnosis of thyroid cancers across all age groups with exception of the 0-14 age group (P>0.5). Conclusion There has been a statistical increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer. This is likely to impact on hospitals and cancer service resources. An increase in surgical demand and the coinciding ageing population highlights the importance of further investigation into the etiology, use of imaging, patient demographics, histology and overall mortality of this patient group.

A 42-year-old man arrived at the emergency department in severe respiratory distress, requiring immediate intubation and ventilation. An emergency computed tomography (CT) neck scan identified a substantial haematoma within a multinodular goitre, necessitating an emergency total thyroidectomy. It was later discovered that the patient had been the victim of an assault involving blunt trauma to the anterior neck. Five days postoperatively the patient was extubated and was well enough to self-discharge the following day. Pathology revealed the lesion to be a ruptured follicular adenoma within his multinodular goitre. Signs of this rare but life-threatening condition may be subtle on initial presentation, particularly if the patient is obtunded. Patients with suspected blunt neck trauma should be observed for signs of respiratory distress. If this develops, the patient should be intubated to facilitate CT scan, and if thyroid haematoma is confirmed, emergency thyroidectomy is the definitive treatment.