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In this review, we assess scientific evidence for tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations. The warming of oceans, modified wind patterns and increasing freshwater influx from melting ice hold the potential to disrupt established circulation patterns. The literature provides evidence for oceanic tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG), and the Antarctic Overturning Circulation, which may collapse under warmer and 'fresher' (i.e. less salty) conditions. A slowdown or collapse of these oceanic circulations would have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the climate system and could lead to strong impacts on human societies and the biosphere. Among the atmospheric circulation systems considered, we classify the West African monsoon as a tipping system. Its abrupt changes in the past have led to vastly different vegetation states of the Sahara (e.g. "green Sahara" states). Evidence about tipping of the monsoon systems over South America and Asia is limited however, there are multiple potential sources of destabilisation, including large-scale deforestation, air pollution, and shifts in other circulation patterns (in particular the AMOC). Although theoretically possible, there is currently little indication for tipping points in tropical clouds or mid-latitude atmospheric circulations. Similarly, tipping towards a more extreme or persistent state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently not fully supported by models and observations. While the tipping thresholds for many of these systems are uncertain, tipping could have severe socio-environmental consequences. Stabilising Earth's climate (along with minimising other environmental pressures, like aerosol pollution and ecosystem degradation) is critical for reducing the likelihood of reaching tipping points in the ocean-atmosphere system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes experience anthropogenically-forced changes that may initiate ecosystem feedbacks, in some cases reaching tipping points beyond which impacts become hard to reverse. Lakes are also important players in the global climate by ventilating a large share of terrestrial carbon back to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases, and will likely provide substantial feedbacks to climate change. In this paper we address various major changes in lake ecosystems, and discuss if tipping points can be identified, predicted, or prevented in them, along with their associated feedbacks to climate change. Potential tipping dynamics assessed include eutrophication-driven anoxia and internal phosphorus-loading, increased loading of organic matter from terrestrial to lake ecosystems (lake "browning"), lake formation or disappearance in response to cryosphere shifts, switching from nitrogen to phosphorus limitation, salinization, and the spread of invasive species. We also address other types of abrupt, or threshold-type shifts in lakes and ponds, and conclude on which tipping points are locally or regionally relevant. We identify a key set of co-drivers that could lead to self-sustaining feedbacks, with warming, browning, and eutrophication leading to increased lake stratification, heterotrophy, and algal mass, which separately or collectively drive benthic oxygen depletion and in turn increased greenhouse gas emissions (helping to drive further warming and organic matter loading) and internal phosphorus-loading (driving further eutrophication). Several of these processes can feature tipping points, which further warming will likely make easier to reach. We argue that the full importance of the vulnerability of lakes to climate and other anthropogenic impacts, as well as their feedback to climate is not yet fully acknowledged, so there is a need both for science and communication in this regard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore the evolutionary nature of interactions between government policy, farm decision-making and ecosystem services in Shucheng County, Anhui Province, 1950–2015. Analyses of ecological, social and economic trends are complemented by interviews with local farmers. Since the Household Responsibility System started in 1980, there has been a trade-off between rising levels of provisioning services and falling levels of regulating services with evidence that critical thresholds have been passed for water quality. Using a Framework for Ecosystem Service Provision, we argue that farmers have acted only as ecosystem service providers and have not influenced the policies that have brought about the trade-offs. Over the period, ecological degradation is best described as an example of 'creeping normalcy' where cumulative conventional actions by individual farmers produce unsustainable losses in regulating services. The Chinese government should act to balance the various ecosystem services through valuation and national policy. In this respect, there is a need for agencies that can provide place-based advice to farmers that will allow them to maintain productivity levels while pursuing restorative actions. Even with new policies, the draw of urban employment, high production costs and an ageing population threaten the viability of farming in these marginal agricultural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]