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Abstract The most frequent volcanic eruptions are of low-intensity and small magnitude. They produce abundant ash-sized (

Abstract Lahars are rapid flows composed of water and volcaniclastic sediments, which have the potential to impact residential buildings and critical infrastructure as well as to disrupt critical services, especially in the absence of hazard-based land-use planning. Their destructive power is mostly associated with their velocity (related to internal flow properties and topographic interactions) and to their ability to bury buildings and structures (due to deposit thickness). The distance reached by lahars depends on their volume, on sediments/water ratio, as well as on the geometrical properties of the topography where they propagate. Here we present the assessment of risk associated with lahar using Vulcano island (Italy) as a case study. First, we estimated an initial lahar source volume considering the remobilisation by intense rain events of the tephra fallout on the slopes of the La Fossa cone (the active system on the island), where the tephra fallout is associated with the most likely scenario (e.g. long-lasting Vulcanian cycle). Second, we modelled and identified the potential syn-eruptive lahar impact areas on the northern sector of Vulcano, where residential and touristic facilities are located. We tested a range of parameters (e.g., entrainment capability, consolidation of tephra fallout deposit, friction angle) that can influence lahar propagation output both in terms of intensity of the event and extent of the inundation area. Finally, exposure and vulnerability surveys were carried out in order to compile exposure and risk maps for lahar-flow front velocity (semi-quantitative indicator-based risk assessment) and final lahar-deposit thickness (qualitative exposure-based risk assessment). Main outcomes show that the syn-eruptive lahar scenario with medium entrainment capability produces the highest impact associated with building burial by the final lahar deposit. Nonetheless, the syn-eruptive lahar scenario with low entrainment capacity is associated with higher runout and results in the highest impact associated with lahar-flow velocities. Based on our simulations, two critical infrastructures (telecommunication and power plant), as well as the main road crossing the island are exposed to potential lahar impacts (either due to lahar-flow velocity or lahar-deposit thickness or both). These results show that a risk-based spatial planning of the island could represent a valuable strategy to reduce the volcanic risk in the long term.

Abstract Risk assessments in volcanic contexts are complicated by the multi-hazard nature of both unrest and eruption phases, which frequently occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. As an attempt to capture the multi-dimensional and dynamic nature of volcanic risk, we developed an integrAteD VolcanIc risk asSEssment (ADVISE) model that focuses on two temporal dimensions that authorities have to address in a volcanic context: short-term emergency management and long-term risk management. The output of risk assessment in the ADVISE model is expressed in terms of potential physical, functional, and systemic damage, determined by combining the available information on hazard, exposed systems and vulnerability. The ADVISE model permits qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative risk assessment depending on the final objective and on the available information. The proposed approach has evolved over a decade of study on the volcanic island of Vulcano (Italy), where recent signs of unrest combined with uncontrolled urban development and significant seasonal variations of exposed population result in highly dynamic volcanic risk. For the sake of illustration of all the steps of the ADVISE model, we focus here on the risk assessment of the transport system in relation to the tephra fallout associated with a long-lasting Vulcanian cycle.

A crucial feature to manage a volcanic crisis is the ability of volcanologists to promptly detect an impending eruption. This is often affected by significant uncertainty, mainly for the difficulty in interpreting the monitoring signals in terms of the exact timing of a possible eruption. Here we contribute to this problem, focusing on the states of active volcanoes with closed conduit, as deduced from monitoring data. Four main states can be identified. In the quiescence state 1) the monitoring data lie on a baseline, suggesting the lack of shallow magma/fluid movement. The unrest state is highlighted by minor 2) to major 3) variations in the intensity and rate of monitoring data; in both cases, radial ground deformation pattern and non-migrating seismicity imply shallow magma and/or fluid accumulation. The state of impending eruption 4) is characterised by non-radial, asymmetric ground deformation pattern and migrating seismicity, which suggest that magma approaches the surface through a propagating dyke. As early recognition of this distinctive state is crucial for timely eruption forecast, monitoring activity should be aimed at its prompt detection. The application of this rationale to two types of active volcanoes in densely inhabited areas, a restless caldera (Campi Flegrei) and a quiescent stratovolcano (Vesuvio), highlights its feasibility and importance in eruption forecasting. This rationale may foster a general reference framework to be adopted in case of unrest, supporting in interpreting the monitoring data, as well as more effective: 1) operationally-oriented, monitoring system; 2) probabilistic forecast; 3) use of volcanic alert levels.

[Article in Italian] In Versilia scienza e società lavorano insieme per la gestione della risorsa acqua I convegni sull’ambiente di Villa Bertelli a Forte dei Marmi, si pongono l’obiettivo di fare dialogare scienza, rappresentanti del territorio e mondo della scuola per analizzare le sfide ambientali del comprensorio Apuo-Versiliese. Il fine ultimo di questi eventi è quello di mettere a disposizione degli organi di governo e gestionali del territorio e professionisti, elementi conoscitivi rigorosi ed oggettivi necessari a indentificare i problemi e le possibili soluzioni e a guidare le strategie di medio e lungo periodo.

This study presents a new method for producing long-term hazard maps for pyroclastic density currents (PDC) originating at Campi Flegrei caldera. Such method is based on a doubly stochastic approach and is able to combine the uncertainty assessments on the spatial location of the volcanic vent, the size of the flow and the expected time of such an event. The results are obtained by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified invasion model based on the box model integral approximation. Temporal assessments are modeled through a Cox-type process including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Mean and percentile maps of PDC invasion probability are produced, exploring their sensitivity to some sources of uncertainty and to the effects of the dependence between PDC scales and the caldera sector where they originated. Conditional maps representative of PDC originating inside limited zones of the caldera, or of PDC with a limited range of scales are also produced. Finally, the effect of assuming different time windows for the hazard estimates is explored, also including the potential occurrence of a sequence of multiple events. Assuming that the last eruption of Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) marked the beginning of a new epoch of activity similar to the previous ones, results of the statistical analysis indicate a mean probability of PDC invasion above 5% in the next 50 years on almost the entire caldera (with a probability peak of ~25% in the central part of the caldera). In contrast, probability values reduce by a factor of about 3 if the entire eruptive record is considered over the last 15 kyr, i.e., including both eruptive epochs and quiescent periods.

Abstract Vulcanian eruptions are common at many volcanoes around the world. Vulcanian activity occurs as either isolated sequences of eruptions or as precursors to sustained explosive events and is interpreted as clearing of shallow plugs from volcanic conduits. Breadcrust bombs characteristic of Vulcanian eruptions represent samples of different parts of these plugs and preserve information that can be used to infer parameters of pre-eruption magma ascent. The morphology and preserved volatile contents of breadcrust bombs erupted in 1999 from Guagua Pichincha volcano, Ecuador, thus allow us to constrain the physical processes responsible for Vulcanian eruption sequences of this volcano. Morphologically, breadcrust bombs differ in the thickness of glassy surface rinds and in the orientation and density of crack networks. Thick rinds fracture to create deep, widely spaced cracks that form large rectangular domains of surface crust. In contrast, thin rinds form polygonal networks of closely spaced shallow cracks. Rind thickness, in turn, is inversely correlated with matrix glass water content in the rind. Assuming that all rinds cooled at the same rate, this correlation suggests increasing bubble nucleation delay times with decreasing pre-fragmentation water content of the melt. A critical bubble nucleation threshold of 0.4–0.9 wt% water exists, below which bubble nucleation does not occur and resultant bombs are dense. At pre-fragmentation melt H2O contents of >?0.9 wt%, only glassy rinds are dense and bomb interiors vesiculate after fragmentation. For matrix glass H2O contents of ?1.4 wt%, rinds are thin and vesicular instead of thick and non-vesicular. A maximum measured H2O content of 3.1 wt% establishes the maximum pressure (63 MPa) and depth (2.5 km) of magma that may have been tapped during a single eruptive event. More common H2O contents of ?1.5 wt% suggest that most eruptions involved evacuation of ?1.5 km of the conduit. As we expect that substantial overpressures existed in the conduit prior to eruption, these depth estimates based on magmastatic pressure are maxima. Moreover, the presence of measurable CO2 (?17 ppm) in quenched glass of highly degassed magma is inconsistent with simple models of either open- or closed-system degassing, and leads us instead to suggest re-equilibration of the melt with gas derived from a deeper magmatic source. Together, these observations suggest a model for the repeated Vulcanian eruptions that includes (1) evacuation of the shallow conduit during an individual eruption, (2) depressurization of magma remaining in the conduit accompanied by open-system degassing through permeable bubble networks, (3) rapid conduit re-filling, and (4) dome formation prior to the subsequent explosion. An important part of this process is densification of upper conduit magma to allow repressurization between explosions. At a critical overpressure, trapped pressurized gas fragments the nascent impermeable cap to repeat the process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Monte Nuovo eruption is the most recent event that occurred at Phlegrean Fields (Italy) and lasted from 29 September to 6 October 1538. It was characterized by 2 days of quasi-sustained phreatomagmatic activity generating pumice-bearing pyroclastic density currents and forming a 130-m-high tuff cone (Lower Member deposits). The activity resumed after a pause of 2 days with two discrete Vulcanian explosions that emplaced radially distributed, scoria-bearing pyroclastic flows (Upper Member deposits). The juvenile products of Lower and Upper Members are, respectively, phenocryst-poor, light-coloured pumice and dark scoria fragments with K-phonolitic bulk compositions, identical in terms of both major and trace elements. Groundmass is formed by variable proportions of K-feldspar and glass, along with minor sodalite and Fe-Ti oxide present in the most crystallized samples. Investigations of groundmass compositions and textures were performed to assess the mechanisms of magma ascent, degassing and fragmentation along the conduit and implications for the eruptive dynamics. In pumice of the Lower Member groundmass crystal content increases from 13 to 28 vol% from the base to the top of the sequence. Products of the Upper Member consist of clasts with a groundmass crystal content between 30 and 40 vol% and of totally crystallized fragments. Crystal size distributions of groundmass feldspars shift from a single population at the base of the Lower Member to a double population in the remaining part of the sequence. The average size of both populations regularly increases from the Lower to the Upper Member. Crystal number density increases by two orders of magnitude from the Lower to the Upper Member, suggesting that nucleation dominated during the second phase of the eruption. The overall morphological, compositional and textural data suggest that the juvenile components of the Monte Nuovo eruption are likely to record variations of the magma properties within the conduit. The different textures of pumice clasts from the Lower Member possibly reflect horizontal gradients of the physical properties (P, T) of the ascending magma column, while scoriae from the second phase are thought to result from the disruption of a slowly rising plug crystallizing in response to degassing. In particular, crystal size distribution data point to syn-eruptive degassing-induced crystallization as responsible for the transition in eruptive style from the first to the second phase of the eruption. This mechanism not only has been proved to profoundly affect the dynamics of dome-forming calc-alkaline eruptions, but may also have a strong influence in driving the eruption dynamics of alkaline magmas of intermediate to evolved compositions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Textural characterization of pumice clasts from explosive volcanic eruptions provides constraints on magmatic processes through the quantification of crystal and vesicle content, size, shape, vesicle wall thickness and the degree of interconnectivity. The Plinian fallout deposit directly underlying the Campanian Ignimbrite (CI) eruption represents a suitable case to investigate pumice products with different textural characteristics and to link the findings to processes accompanying conduit magma ascent to the crater. The deposit consists of a lower (LFU) and upper (UFU) pumice lapilli bed generated by the sub-steady eruption of trachytic magma with <5 vol%. crystals and a peak discharge rate of 3.2?10 8 kg/s. Density measurements were performed on samples collected from different stratigraphic intervals at the Voscone-type outcrop, and their textural characteristics were investigated at different magnifications through image analysis techniques. According to clast densities, morphologies and vesicle textures pumice clasts were classified into microvesicular (heterogeneous vesicles), tube (elongated/deformed vesicles) and expanded (coalesced/inflated vesicles).The combination of density data and textural investigations allowed us to characterize both representative areas and textural extremes of pumice products. Bulk vesicularity spans a broad interval varying from 0.46 to >0.90, with vesicle number density ranging from 10 7?10 8 cm -3. The degree of vesicle coalescence is high for all pumice types, with interconnected vesicles generally representing more than 90% of the bulk vesicle population. The results show a high degree of heterogeneous textures among pumice clasts from both phases of the eruption and within each eruption phase, the different pumice types and also within each single pumice type fragment. The origin of pumice clasts with different textural characteristics is ascribed to the development of conduit regions marked by different rheological behavior. The conclusions of this study are that vesicle deformation, degree of coalescence and intense shear at the conduit walls play a major role on the degassing process, hence affecting the entire conduit dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]