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Brander, K., Neuheimer, A., Andersen, K. H., and Hartvig, M. 2013. Overconfidence in model projections. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1065–1068. There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequently reported in the major news media, based on publications in prominent scientific journals. Public and political awareness of the generally negative changes taking place in marine ecosystems is welcome, especially if it results in effective remedial action, but the scientific basis for such action must be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties.

Knowledge of feeding rates is the basis to understand interaction strength and subsequently the stability of ecosystems and biodiversity. Feeding rates, as all biological rates, depend on consumer and resource body masses and environmental temperature. Despite five decades of research on functional responses as quantitative models of feeding rates, a unifying framework of how they scale with body masses and temperature is still lacking. This is perplexing, considering that the strength of functional responses (i.e. interaction strengths) is crucially important for the stability of simple consumer–resource systems and the persistence, sustainability and biodiversity of complex communities. Here, we present the largest currently available database on functional response parameters and their scaling with body mass and temperature. Moreover, these data are integrated across ecosystems and metabolic types of species. Surprisingly, we found general temperature dependencies that differed from the Arrhenius terms predicted by metabolic models. Additionally, the body-mass-scaling relationships were more complex than expected and differed across ecosystems and metabolic types. At local scales (taxonomically narrow groups of consumer–resource pairs), we found hump-shaped deviations from the temperature and body-mass-scaling relationships. Despite the complexity of our results, these body-mass- and temperature-scaling models remain useful as a mechanistic basis for predicting the consequences of warming for interaction strengths, population dynamics and network stability across communities differing in their size structure.

Several ecologically and commercially important fish species spend the winter in a state of minimum feeding activity and at lower risk of predation. To enable this overwintering behaviour, energetic reserves are generated prior to winter to support winter metabolism. Maintenance metabolism in fish scales with body size and increases with temperature, and the two factors together determine a critical threshold size for passive overwintering below which the organism is unlikely to survive without feeding. This is because the energetic cost of metabolism exceeds maximum energy reserves. In the present study, we estimated the energetic cost of overwintering from a bioenergetic model. The model was parameterised using respirometry-based measurements of standard metabolic rate in buried A. tobianus (a close relative to A. marinus) at temperatures from 5.3 to 18.3°C and validated with two independent long-term overwintering experiments. Maximum attainable energy reserves were estimated from published data on A. marinus in the North Sea. The critical threshold size in terms of length (L th) for A. marinus in the North Sea was estimated to be 9.5 cm. We then investigated two general predictions: (1) Fish smaller than L th display winter feeding activity, and (2) size at maturation of iteroparous species is larger than L th to ensure sufficient energy reserves to accommodate both the metabolic cost of passive overwintering and reproductive investments. Both predictions were found to be consistent with data on size at maturation and total body energy in December and February.

We synthesise traditional unstructured food webs, allometric body size scaling, trait-based modelling, and physiologically structured modelling to provide a novel and ecologically relevant tool for size-structured food webs. The framework allows food web models to include ontogenetic growth and life-history omnivory at the individual level by resolving the population structure of each species as a size-spectrum. Each species is characterised by the trait 'size at maturation', and all model parameters are made species independent through scaling with individual body size and size at maturation. Parameter values are determined from cross-species analysis of fish communities as life-history omnivory is widespread in aquatic systems, but may be reparameterised for other systems. An ensemble of food webs is generated and the resulting communities are analysed at four levels of organisation: community level, species level, trait level, and individual level. The model may be solved analytically by assuming that the community spectrum follows a power law. The analytical solution provides a baseline expectation of the results of complex food web simulations, and agrees well with the predictions of the full model on 1) biomass distribution as a function of individual size, 2) biomass distribution as a function of size at maturation, and 3) relation between predator-prey mass ratio of preferred and eaten food. The full model additionally predicts the diversity distribution as a function of size at maturation.