Search

We present in this contribution the varied experiences gathered in the co-design of a sectoral climate services collection, developed in the framework of the MEDSCOPE project, which have in common the application of seasonal predictions for the Mediterranean geographical and climatic region. Although the region is affected by low seasonal predictability limiting the skill of seasonal forecasting systems, which historically has hindered the development of downstream services, the project was originally conceived to exploit windows of opportunity with enhanced skill for developing and evaluating climate services in various sectors with high societal impact in the region: renewable energy, hydrology, and agriculture and forestry. The project also served as the scientific branch of the WMO-led Mediterranean Climate Outlook Forum (MedCOF) that had as objective -among others- partnership strengthening on climate services between providers and users within the Mediterranean region. The diversity of the MEDSCOPE experiences in co-designing shows the wide range of involvement and engagement of users in this process across the Mediterranean region, which benefits from the existing solid and organized MedCOF community of climate services providers and users. A common issue among the services described here -and also among other prototypes developed in the project- was related with the communication of forecasts uncertainty and skill for efficiently informing decision-making in practice. All MEDSCOPE project prototypes make use of an internally developed software package containing process-based methods for synthesising seasonal forecast data, as well as basic and advanced tools for obtaining tailored products. Another challenge assumed by the project refers to the demonstration of the economic, social, and environmental value of predictions provided by these MEDSCOPE prototypes.

Glaciated and recently (post-Little Ice Age) deglaciated areas are very dynamic environments, undergoing continuous changes, in particular as a consequence of climatic fluctuations and cryosphere changes. The intense geomorphic activity that takes place here conditions natural hazard, sediment transport and tourist fruition. A geo-morphological mapping with applicative purposes has to take into account the peculiarities and the dynamism of these specific areas. We here propose a methodological approach based on the interpretation of a multitemporal set of aerial photos (from 1983 to 2012), in a GIS environment, with application to the sectors modeled by Little Ice Age glaciers in the upper Orco Valley (NW Italy). The result is a geo-morphological map focused on the elements that are most relevant for application purposes, complemented by a map of the spatio-temporal distribution of the natural instability processes identified in the study area for the reference period, aimed to highlight the recent dynamism of the geomorphological elements in the map.

I sensori sismici ed acustici sembrano mostrare promettenti possibilità di utilizzo per la mitigazione del rischio da frana. Recenti ricerche sul M.te Cervino, ad esempio, hanno utilizzato reti microsismiche per individuare le sedi di crolli potenziali e per stabilire la relazione tra variazioni di temperatura ed emissioni acustiche in roccia. È invece attualmente in fase di sperimentazione l’utilizzo di sensori geofonici e sismometri per la realizzazione di innovativi sistemi di allarme per colate detritiche, capaci di rilevarne l’arrivo con un significativo margine di tempo di anticipo. Nell’articolo vengono illustrati e discussi in dettaglio alcuni esempi applicativi. ------ Seismic and acoustic sensors seem to show promising possibilities of employment for the mitigation of landslide hazards. Recent researches carried out on the Matterhorn, as an example, have used microseismic networks to locate potential areas of rockfalls and to establish a relationship between temperature variations and acoustic emissions in rocks. It is currently under investigation, instead, the use of geophone sensors and seismometers for the realization of innovative warning systems for debris flows, capable to detect their arrival with a significant amount of time in advance. In this article some practical examples will be presented and discussed in detail.

En hiver, les mouvements de masse à haute altitude sont rares dans les Alpes italiennes, mais sont généralement de plus grande ampleur que ceux qui se produisent en d’autres saisons. Dans un contexte de changement climatique, l’interprétation des mouvements de masse est particulièrement délicate en raison des risques que ceux-ci représentent pendant une saison très touristique en montagne, et parce que leur survenue semble être en contradiction avec l’attribution au réchauffement climatique des récents mouvements de masse dans les milieux de haute montagne. Afin d’éclairer cette question, nous avons examiné 12 mouvements de masse qui se sont produits dans les Alpes italiennes à plus de 1 500 m d’altitude, entre la mi-décembre et janvier, c’est-à-dire durant la période de Noël. L’objectif est de comprendre si les évènements récents peuvent être liés aux changements climatiques et environnementaux en cours. Bien que le nombre réduit de mouvements de masse analysés ne permette pas de tirer des conclusions fondées sur des statistiques, certaines réflexions préliminaires peuvent être formulées. La fréquence et l’ampleur des mouvements de masse ont augmenté en hiver au cours des deux dernières décennies, avec un nombre accru de ruptures de versants rocheux où l’on trouve du permafrost, et une transition entre des mouvements de masse provoqués par de fortes précipitations à des mouvements de masse provoqués par des anomalies et des fluctuations de température. Cette étude montre que tout type de processus d’instabilité peut se produire en hiver, y compris des laves torrentielles, et que les éboulements et les avalanches rocheuses prédominent. Ces résultats peuvent en partie s’expliquer par l’augmentation du nombre de mouvements de masse signalés du fait de l’attention accrue accordée ces dernières années aux effets du changement climatique et aux risques qui y sont associés. Compte tenu de la pression anthropique croissante sur les zones alpines, même en hiver, à des fins touristiques notamment, il est important d’approfondir nos connaissances sur les mouvements de masse en hiver en développant et en analysant un plus grand nombre d’études de cas grâce aux possibilités offertes par les nouvelles technologies et la science citoyenne.

Mass movements at high elevation during wintertime are rare events in the Italian Alps, but are generally large events compared to those occurring in other seasons. In a context of climate change, their interpretation is particularly challenging due to the risk implications during a highly tourist season in the mountains, and because their occurrence seemingly contradicts the attribution of recent mass movements in high-alpine environments to global warming. To shed some light on this topic, we reviewed 12 mass movements in the Italian Alps that occurred at elevations above 1500 m, documented from mid-December to January, henceforth during the Christmas period. The aim is to understand whether recent events may be related to ongoing climate and environmental changes. Even though the small number of analysed mass movements does not allow statistically based conclusions, some preliminary considerations could be drafted. We observe a seeming increase in the frequency and elevation of winter mass-movement events in the last two decades, with an increased number of failures involving rock slopes under permafrost conditions, and a transition from heavy-precipitations controlled mass movements to temperature-anomalies and -fluctuations controlled mass movements. We also show that any type of instability process can occur in winter, including debris flows, with rock falls/avalanches prevailing. These findings may partly stem from an increased number of mass-movement reports deriving from the growing attention in recent years to the impacts of climate change and their related risks. Considering the growing anthropic pressure on alpine areas even in winter, especially for tourism purposes, it is crucial to broaden our knowledge on winter mass movements by expanding and analysing a larger case history, through the opportunities offered by new technologies and citizen science.

I movimenti di massa in alta quota sono eventi rari in inverno nelle Alpi Italiane, ma presentano sovente grandi dimensioni se confrontati con gli eventi che si verificano in altre stagioni. L’interpretazione delle condizioni di innesco è particolarmente delicata, considerata l’elevata frequentazione turistica della montagna durante il periodo invernale, e dunque le condizioni di rischio associate, e perché il loro accadimento potrebbe apparire in contraddizione con l’attribuzione di molti recenti fenomeni d’instabilità in alta quota al riscaldamento climatico in corso. Per fare luce su questo tema, abbiamo preso in considerazione 12 movimenti di massa avvenuti nelle Alpi Italiane a quote superiori a 1500 m tra metà dicembre e gennaio, ovvero durante il periodo natalizio, con l’obiettivo di comprendere se i recenti eventi d’instabilità possano essere collegati ai cambiamenti climatici e ambientali in corso. Anche se l’esiguo numero di movimenti di massa analizzati non consente di trarre conclusioni statisticamente basate, è possibile enucleare alcune considerazioni preliminari. Negli ultimi due decenni si osserva un apparente aumento della frequenza e della quota dei movimenti di versante invernali, con un aumento del numero di eventi che coinvolgono versanti rocciosi in condizioni di permafrost, e una transizione da fenomeni controllati da precipitazioni abbondanti a eventi controllati da anomalie e fluttuazioni della temperatura. Nel nostro lavoro mostriamo inoltre come in inverno possa verificarsi qualsiasi tipo di processo d’instabilità di versante, comprese le colate detritiche, anche se prevalgono i crolli/valanghe di roccia. Le osservazioni provenienti dai casi di studio potrebbero in parte dipendere da un aumento del numero di segnalazioni dovuto alla crescente attenzione verso gli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici e i rischi associati. Considerata la crescente pressione antropica sulle aree alpine, soprattutto a scopi turistici, anche nel periodo invernale, è cruciale approfondire le conoscenze sui movimenti di massa invernali, analizzando in maggior dettaglio ed ampliando la casistica disponibile, anche attraverso le opportunità offerte dalle nuove tecnologie e dalla citizen science.