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Accurate assessments of global primary material extraction, trade of primary materials and products, material use, waste, and emissions support the development of policies that facilitate the decoupling of economic activity, natural resource use, and related environmental impacts. Here, we quantify all crucial aspects of global and country‐by‐country material requirements needed to fuel economic activities, covering both territorial‐ and demand‐based indicators. These data have been assembled by a consortium of research partners that compile the global material flow and resource productivity online database for the International Resource Panel, which contributes to the global dataset for the System of Environmental–Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework and is employed to monitor progress for the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators 8.4 and 12.2. We present the main findings of the 2024 update, including methodological improvements and result differences, and discuss the main findings and limitations. Since the last update, we have identified a slowing of global materials extraction since about 2014, a continuation of solid growth in direct trade of materials and products, persistent inequality in resource use between high‐ and low‐income countries, and a prolonged improvement in global material productivity. The full dataset used herein can be downloaded from the Global Material Flow Database hosted by the United Nations Environment Program International Resource Panel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As cities grow, demand for urban materials is set to rise. Meeting sustainability targets will require transformative changes to how cities are constructed. Yet, accurate information on embodied building materials and their environmental impacts at the city scale is still lacking. We use Light Detection and Ranging data, building archetype information, and statistical models to estimate the embodied materials in buildings in Canberra, Australia, and their energy, carbon, and water footprint. In 2015, 57 million tonnes (Mt) of materials were embodied in 140,805 buildings. By weight, concrete was the most used material (44%), followed by sand and stone (32%), and ceramics (11%). Current population growth and building construction trends indicate a need for 2.4 times the building materials stock of 2015 by 2060. Producing such materials would require 1.6 thousand TJ of energy and 793 thousand megaliters of water and emit 48 Mt of CO2e—an environmental footprint 1.6 times the one in 2015. If the additional population were to live only in new single houses, material demand would be 4% higher than under current trends and the environmental footprint 5% higher. Housing new residents in low‐rise apartments would reduce from current trends the material demand by 5% and the environmental footprint by 12%. Using only apartments of four or more stories would reduce material demand by 28% and the environmental footprint by 14%. This research can inform circular economy efforts to improve building materials management by helping estimate the implications of alternative configurations of the urban built environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is challenging given the complex interactions between different SDGs and their spillover effects. We developed a system dynamics model—the Local Environmental and Socio‐Economic Model (LESEM)—to analyze and quantify context‐based SDG interactions at the local scale using a participatory model co‐design process with local stakeholders. The LESEM was developed for the Goulburn‐Murray Irrigation District in Victoria, Australia, to assist policymakers in analyzing local issues with a more integrated and holistic approach to sustainable development at the local scale. The process of participatory systems dynamics modeling facilitates integrated and strategic decision‐making and can help local policymakers identify and quantify potential trade‐offs and synergies that benefit multiple SDGs, which eventually leads local communities toward sustainability. We present an illustrative application of the model that quantifies SDG interactions across four high‐priority SDGs, namely clean water and sanitation (SDG 6), zero hunger (SDG 2), economic growth (SDG 8), and life on land (SDG 15). We illustrate the use of the model in assessing key SDG indicator trajectories under a business‐as‐usual (BAU) scenario from 2010 to 2050. Under the BAU, agri‐food production increased despite a decline in water resource availability, with gains driven by intensification and increased agricultural productivity. This boosted local prosperity and reduced the amount of agricultural land required to meet future agri‐food demand, thereby reducing pressures on terrestrial ecosystems and creating the space for ecological restoration and carbon storage in soils and biomass. However, agricultural intensification impacted water quality through increases in algal blooms and river salinity. Plain Language Summary: The 17 Sustainable Development Goals represent a comprehensive and ambitious plan to improve society, boost the economy, and protect the environment. However, it's challenging to achieve these goals because they interact with and impact one another in complex ways. To better understand these interactions, we apply a system dynamics model to analyze how different goals influence each other at a local level by involving the input of stakeholders. In this study, we focused on four critical goals: zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, economic growth, and life on land. We explored projections from 2010 to 2050 under business‐as‐usual trends. The results revealed that, even if water becomes scarcer, food production can still go up if we farm smarter and more efficiently. This is good for the local economy and means that less land is needed for farming, which helps the environment. It also creates room for nature to bounce back and for the soil and plants to store more carbon. However, agricultural intensification can adversely affect water quality. Our model supports decision‐makers in balancing multiple goals, identifying potential trade‐offs, and synergies that benefit the sustainable development of local communities. Key Points: We used a participatory approach to co‐design a systems model with stakeholders for analyzing local sustainabilityThe model quantifies the interactions among SDG 2, SDG 6, SDG 8, and SDG 15 and we applied it under a Business‐As‐Usual (BAU) futureUnder the BAU, agri‐food production increased despite less water due to intensification, but there were environmental spillover effects [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China experienced a shift from net forest losses to gains (forest transition) between 1976 and 1981. Such transition has increased timber volume in natural forests and expanded the provision of forests ecosystem services. However, the timing, magnitude, and impact of the forest transition varied at provincial scales due to heterogeneous socio‐economic and institutional conditions. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of spatial drivers of forest transition in China through integrated comparative and spatial regression methods. This approach allows the documentation of feedbacks and interactions of theoretical pathways to forest transition at different geographical scales, which is of relevance for large‐scale land restoration efforts. Our analysis also accounts for changes in forest volumes, a parameter that is usually not studied in the forest transition literature. Here, we used key indicators of demographic, economic, agricultural, and urbanization processes coupled with forest area data to investigate factors influencing forest transitions at multiple geographic scales between 1973 and 2013. Stepwise and geographically weighted regression models were adapted to quantify the key drivers' integrated and distributed magnitude effects on forest transition patterns, respectively. We assessed changes across forest types (i.e., primary and secondary forests, plantation forests) and investigated pathways to forest transition at provincial scales. The results indicate that increasing demand for timber and other forest ecosystem services, rising gross domestic product and population, forest policy, and increasing employment in the industry and service sectors generated multiple pathways to forest transition. The impact of those drivers varied within provinces, and some transition pathways were more relevant than others at sub‐national scales. Despite the Country scale shift to net forest gains, the loss of natural forests continued in some provinces (e.g., Guangdong, Guangxi) until recent years. The loss of ecosystem services from mature forests offset some of the benefits of China's forest transition. Coordinated forest management strategies across political jurisdictions could speed up the path to net forest gains, reduce trade‐offs of forest transitions processes, and achieve sustainable afforestation processes. Such an effort could have significant contributions to the preservation and increase of key forest ecosystem services for the Country and the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Around two‐thirds of the global population will live in cities by 2050 requiring large urban infrastructure development. Decision‐makers and planners usually rely on standard economic accounting methods for urban planning and investments on infrastructure assets. However, standard methods fail to account for the ecosystem services benefits that living infrastructure (e.g. urban forests, open spaces) provides to city dwellers. This could generate socially inefficient configurations of urban spaces and compromise the achievement of long‐term urban sustainability targets. In this analysis, we applied a stochastic whole‐of‐life benefit–cost analysis following the System of Environmental‐Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework to compare alternative long‐term management strategies for living infrastructure in Canberra, Australia. Spatially explicit data, i‐Tree Eco and benefit transfer methods were used to estimate the stocks and flows ecosystem services benefits of urban forests and irrigated open spaces from 2018 to 2070. Our analysis suggests that a '30 per cent canopy cover expansion' scenario has the highest benefit–cost ratio, while the business as usual scenario, where a net loss of 400 trees is expected per year, offers the lowest benefit–cost ratio. Scenarios of expanding versus not expanding irrigated open spaces in the future both result in a benefit–cost ratio of approximately two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the countries which has been experiencing a forest transition, China provides important insights into and theoretical and empirical knowledge of forest transition. In this study, through the framework of Sustainable Livelihood Analysis (SLA) and questionnaire surveys, we examined forest transition, farmers’ land-use activities and livelihood changes in Chicheng county, a typical mountainous area in Northern China, during 1975–2018. Most villages of Chicheng county experienced forest transition during the period of 2003–2005, but some villages experienced forest transition in 2010–2015. Forest transition variation over time was influenced by land use and livelihood changes. Livelihood resources, policy and institutional constraints and livelihood strategies had significant influences on land use and then caused variation in forest transition characteristics. The process of “livelihood–land use–forest transition” was the key to achieving and maintaining forest transition, and the interaction between livelihood and land use was a negative feedback relationship between society and ecology. The dominant path of forest transition in Chicheng county was the “economic development path”. Moreover, the “intensive agriculture path of small-scale farmers” enhanced the “economic development path”, and the “forest scarcity path” promoted both of the above two paths. This implies that the feedback and interactions between society and ecology should be taken into account so as to achieve a sustainable human and environmental system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The protection and expansion of forest carbon sinks are critical to achieving climate-change mitigation targets. Yet, the increasing frequency and severity of forest disturbances challenge the sustainable provision of forest services. We investigated patterns of forest disturbances' impacts on carbon sinks by combining spatial datasets of forest carbon sequestration from biomass growth and emissions from fire and bark beetle damage in the western United States (U.S.) and valued the social costs of forest carbon losses. We also examined potential future trends of forest carbon sinks under two climate-change projections using a global vegetation model. We found that forest carbon losses from bark-beetle damage were larger than emissions from fires between 2003 and 2012. The cumulative social costs of forest carbon losses ranged from USD 7 billion to USD 72 billion, depending on the severity of global warming and the discount rate. Forest carbon stocks could increase around 5% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 or 7% under RCP 8.5 by 2091 relative to 2011 levels, mostly in forests with high net primary productivity. These results indicate that spatially explicit management of forest disturbances may increase forest carbon sinks, thereby improving opportunities to achieve critical climate-change mitigation goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The restoration and protection of "blue carbon" ecosystems – mangroves, seagrasses, and tidal marshes – has potential to offset greenhouse gas emissions and improve coastal livelihoods. However, realisation of this potential relies on global investment in restoration and protection, which in turn relies on appropriate funding mechanisms that are currently impeded by multiple constraints. Constraints include commercial considerations by private investors (including reliable estimates of financial returns, risk quantification and management, and supply chain impacts), regulatory and legal uncertainty (such as the complexity of property rights in coastal areas, policy coordination across jurisdictions, and stable policy consistent with the duration of blue carbon projects). There are, however, opportunities to improve on current practices, including better stakeholder engagement (including social license to operate, and knowledge transfer to promote best practices), and targeted use of public and philanthropic funding (to subsidise demonstration projects, reduce financial risk through collaterals, and promote low-profit but high co-benefit projects). In this paper, a strategy for the realisation of potential benefits through commercially viable and scientifically robust blue carbon initiatives is presented alongside insights and guidance for the policy, research, civil society, and private sectors to achieve these important long-term outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]