Search

Electrification is on the increase globally. The transportation sector is being electrified to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. South Korea aims to diffuse 8.3 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2040 to reduce emissions in the transportation sector. However, BEV diffusion policies have not been considered for BEVs' electricity consumption. Given that the rapid diffusion of BEVs significantly increases the electricity demand, forecasting BEVs' electricity consumption is necessary to inform electricity production plans. Furthermore, electricity is produced through various energy sources, and electricity prices and consumption are affected; therefore, forecasts that reflect the overall energy market are needed. This study presents a forecasting model for BEV demand and energy consumption by combining it with a macroeconometric model that reflects the overall energy market and socioeconomic impact using an innovation diffusion model. Incorporating electricity prices and renewable energy consumption derived from the macroeconometric model, annual BEV demand and electricity consumption are predicted. Moreover, BEV demand is more diffused and slower when forecasted using the Generalized Bass model with electricity prices and renewable energy consumption, compared to forecast without these factors, and the predictive power of BEVs is superior to that forecasted using the Bass Model alone. • Adoption of BEVs increases electricity consumption in the transportation sector. • Despite BEV diffusion targets, BEVs' electricity consumption has not been reviewed. • We propose a macroeconometric model merging the energy market and diffusion model. • Macroeconometric model is used to forecast energy prices and demand. • We predict that increasing electricity prices will delay the peak of BEV diffusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Iran’s economy is among the economies with low resilience and high vulnerability. Economic resilience refers to the ability to cope with various economic shocks and the extent of recovery after a crisis. Economic Resilience which means enduring the effects of shocks and recovering quickly from economic shocks and returning to pre-crisis functioning, can help make the economy more resilient. Because different markets are related to this sector in various ways, in the event of a crisis or external shock and instability in this sector other sectors are affected as well; making the need to pay more attention to the stability of the sector and, to a greater degree, its resilience apparent. The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies affecting the resilience of Iran's government budget sector. For this purpose, a macro econometric model was designed for the Iran’s economic. The policy variables used are legal reserve rate, banking system debt to the central bank, government construction budget, government oil revenue, deposit interest rate and official exchange rate and identified appropriate policies to increase the resilience index of the government budget sector by applying different scenarios. As well as the implementation of the combined scenario for the government budget sector resilience index shows a 51/63% increase in the average. The results showed that in the event of a shock, it is possible to prevent a sharp decline in the resilience index of the government budget sector by using a combination of economic policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expansionary and contractionary effects of exchange rate shock in developing economies has been the subject of an extensive debate but the results are inconclusive. This study has been conducted to examine the repercussions of unexpected exchange rate depreciation in the Pakistan economy. Unlike the previous literature, this study utilizes a fairly large macroeconometric model constructed on the basis of Cowles Commission structural approach. The study explores that expansionary effect of exchange rate depreciation explained by the traditional theories of open economy macroeconomics persists only for one fiscal year but these theories don't work in the long-run as contractionary phase starts in the subsequent years. Monetary and fiscal authorities are not neutral and contractionary policy is taken in response to depreciation which pushes the economy into recession. Stagflationary effects are clearly observed. However, improvement in foreign sector prolongs for a number of years and policy makers would have to face a trade-off between opposite response of output and current account balance. Hence, unexpected depreciation generates sharp cyclical fluctuations on demand which immediately transmit to supply side of the economy. In line with the views of "New Structuralists", exchange rate depreciation may be considered as a source of shock rather than shock absorber in the case of Pakistan economy. Although this study is specifically estimated for the Pakistan economy, authors believe that their methodological contributions and results are of wider importance for policy makers in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the question of "will the replacement of the nominal interest rate by the expected Islamic real rate of return have positive consequences on the macroeconomic performance?" The study adopts a dynamic small-scale macroeconometric model, which describes the transmission mechanisms among macroeconomic variables under three scenarios about the Islamic real rate of return. The baseline model and the model scenarios are solved using the stochastic simulation. The results of the study indicate that scenario 1 of a zero Islamic real rate of return, or equivalently a zero real interest rate, is superior over other model scenarios, given the priority of the goal of price stability among other objectives of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK faces a number of economic challenges in the short to medium term. Prior to COVID-19, renegotiation of trading arrangements with the European Union was the most prominent of these. We build on existing macroeconomic analysis by assessing prospects for the UK's regions generated by combining a global macroeconometric model and a regional computable general equilibrium of the UK. A central macroeconomic scenario shows a national average annual GDP growth rate of 1.7 per cent to 2044. When the macroeconomic scenario is applied across regions, growth rates range from 1.6 per cent for Cambridge to 2.2 per cent for Pembrokeshire; the standard deviation is low at 0.07 per cent and the coefficient of variation is 0.04 per cent. In contrast, much wider variation is observed in the standard deviation for exports (0.36 per cent), investment (0.11 per cent) and consumption (0.14 per cent). The country results favour Scotland, which grows at an annual rate of 1.8 per cent, whereas Wales is the slowest growing of the countries at 1.7 per cent. Consistent with the macroeconomic analysis, international trade is the most important contributor to the regional variation in growth rates. We also analyse the effects of higher government consumption relative to the forecasts and find most regions are predicted to experience lower economic activity except the handful in which government consumption is a much higher share of GDP than average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper examines the relative effectiveness of the use of direct and indirect monetary policy instruments in Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, by estimating a restricted Vector Autoregressive model with Exogenous Variables (VARX). The model captures the dynamic interaction of the key sectors in the economy and it accounts for the fact that the banking system in those countries is characterized by high levels of excess reserves. Also, the study assumes that the central bank conducts monetary policy using a Taylor-type rule, and it evaluates the effects of a reserve requirement policy. The results show that although a positive shock to the policy interest rate has a direct effect on commercial banks' interest rates, there is a weak transmission to the real variables. Furthermore, an increase in the required reserve ratio is successful in reducing private sector credit and excess reserves, while at the same time alleviating pressures on the exchange rate. The findings therefore indicate that central banks in small open economies should consider using reserve requirements as a complement to interest rate policy, to achieve their macroeconomic objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Irish economy has recovered at an impressive pace from the economic and financial crisis that lasted from 2008-12. Nonetheless, as a small open economy with some lingering vulnerabilities from the recent crisis, the economy remains heavily exposed to potential adverse shocks. In this paper, we explore the possible impact of external shocks on the Irish economy. We model the shocks in a two-stage process: first using NiGEM to estimate the impact on Ireland's key trading partners and the broader international environment and then examining the effect of these changes in the COSMO model of the Irish economy. The paper focusses on three relevant risks facing the economy: the potential for a hard Brexit, an increase in interest rates and a depreciation of the sterling euro exchange rate. Using this two-step approach allows us to demonstrate the transmission of external shocks to the Irish economy. The results help to quantify the potential impact on future growth, the labour market, public finances and the financial system of some key risks materialising. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the evolution of regional macroeconometric models. The authors allocate two types of models which differ in the complexity level of approximable interrelations - aggregated and integrated ones. This paper shows the advantages of integrated models over aggregated ones due to a combination of techniques of multivariate econometric and balance analysis. The algorithm of creation of integrated models includes three stages: defining a dynamic kernel, structural kernel and the technical way of their integration. The authors pay attention to the implementation results of the first stage of the algorithm - the creation of dynamic kernel of integrated model. The dynamic kernel includes equations which characterize relations between economic agents of the regional system and which are merged in the four structural units: consumption, output, employment and prices and incomes. On the basis of multivariate cointegration analysis the researchers obtain estimates of the aggregate model of economic dynamics of Khabarovsky Krai. The peculiarity of this model is high accuracy of approximation of regional dynamics. The authors summarize the simulation results in the form of assessments of short-term and long-term elasticity coefficients which reflect the relations between regional macroeconomic indicators

The estimates of the macroeconomic indicators for the period 2015-2018 are carried out under an econometric model, which has exogenous variables: internal and external indicators. This allows developing a forecast, which takes into account the economic influence of the main partners of the Republic of Moldova and the decisions leading to the evolution of such internal indicators as the monetary aggregate M2, exchange rate, and interest rate on credits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Monetary Studies (Bank of Lithuania) is the property of Bank of Lithuania and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The economic situation of all the major developed countries has changed significantly during the 2007–10 period. Yet many economic policies have been kept in place. This is true in particular of a key measure in French government policy: tax reductions on overtime hours and their exemption from social charges. In this article we propose simulations of this scheme based on the economic context in which it is implemented. According to our simulations, this kind of measure is pro-cyclical and therefore poorly suited to the current situation of the French economy. Furthermore, even in the case of good conditions, the scheme would not be funded. Without financing, this measure would widen the deficit and would amount to a fiscal stimulus. Financing it through an increase in levies would radically change its nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Monetary Studies (Bank of Lithuania) is the property of Bank of Lithuania and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

A pilot empirical study is carried out on how income inequality affects growth through incorporating panel data information into a quarterly macro-econometric model of China. Provincial urban and rural household data are used to construct income inequality measures, which are then used to augment household consumption equations in the model. Model simulations test the inequality effect on GDP growth and its components. Results show that income inequality forms robust explanatory variables of consumption and that the way inequality develops carries negative consequences on GDP and sectoral growth. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

On 1 January 2007, Slovenia adopted the euro as the first of the ten new EU member states. By means of simulations with SLOPOL6, a macroeconometric model of the Slovene economy, this paper examines the macroeconomic consequences that can be expected from this event. It is shown that after a short period of minor turbulences related to the introduction of the euro, the adoption of the euro brings about higher real GDP growth, a higher GDP level, more employment, lower inflation, a lower price level and improved public finances in the medium run. On the other hand, the current account deteriorates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Slovenia was the first of the ten new EU member states to enter the Euro Area on January 1, 2007. It was an explicit objective of Slovenian policy-makers to introduce the euro as early as possible. Slovenia was participating in the exchange rate mechanism ERM-II since June 2004. This paper analyses whether the choice of participating in the ERM-II soon after EU accession was the best strategy in terms of the macroeconomic performance. It is shown that a better overall economic performance could have been achieved under a crawling peg regime allowing a depreciation of the Slovenian tolar (SIT) before introducing the euro in 2007. The worst policy results are obtained when the exchange rate is totally fixed at an early stage of EMU integration. The labor market performance can be significantly improved by cutting income taxes and social security contribution rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a macroeconometric simulation model for Mexico on a microeconomics basis. This proposal has several distinctive features that makes it different from other models that have been previously elaborated for the Mexican economy. Behavioral relationships are not specified in an ad-hoc manner, but by means of the study of rational behavior of all the economic agents and their interactions with the markets. Through the formulation of intertemporal optimization models, the dynamics of the key macroeconomic variables are determined. Our proposal allows to reproduce stylized facts of the Mexican economy observed between 1995 and 2002. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]