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Marine coastal ecosystems are facing structural and functional changes due to the increasing human footprint worldwide, and the assessment of their long-term changes becomes particularly challenging. Measures of change can be done by comparing the observed ecosystem status to a purposely defined reference condition. In this paper, a geospatial modelling approach based on 2D mapping and morphodynamic data was used to predict the natural position of the upper limit (i.e., the landward continuous front) of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows settled on soft bottom. This predictive model, formerly developed at the regional spatial scale, was here applied for the first time at the Mediterranean spatial scale in eight coastal areas of Spain, France, Italy, and Greece showing different coastal morphologies and hydrodynamic characteristics, and affected by a number of natural and/or human local disturbances. The model was effective in measuring the regression (i.e., seaward withdrawal) of the meadow upper limit. In all the meadows investigated the upper limit was regressed, laying deeper than the reference condition, with the proportion of regression ranging from 17.7% to 98.9%. The highest values of regression were found in Spain and in France, and were consistent with the highest levels of fragmentation detected with map analysis and of coastal pressures. This geospatial modelling approach represents an effective tool to define the reference conditions when proper pristine areas or historical data are not available, thus allowing the assessment of long-time changes experienced by seagrass ecosystems due to human impacts.

Following the restoration of natural conditions by reducing human pressures, reforestation is currently considered a possible option to accelerate the recovery of seagrass habitats. Long-term monitoring programs theoretically represent an ideal solution to assess whether a reforestation plan has produced the desired results. Here, we report on the performance of a 20 m2 patch of Posidonia oceanica transplanted on dead matte twelve years after transplantation in the Gulf of Palermo, northwestern Sicily. Photo mosaic performed in the area allowed us to detect 23 transplanted patches of both regular and irregular shape, ranging from 0.1 to 2.7 m2 and an overall surface close to 19 m2. Meadow density was 331.6 ± 17.7 shoot m−2 (currently five times higher than the initial value of 66 shoots m−2), and it did not show statistical differences from a close by natural meadow (331.2 ± 14.9). Total primary production, estimated by lepidochronology, varied from 333.0 to 332.7 g dw m2/year, at the transplanted and natural stand, respectively. These results suggest that complete restoration of P. oceanica on dead matte is possible in a relatively short time (a decade), thus representing a good starting point for upscaling the recovery of the degraded meadows in the area.