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We develop a model of contests on networks. Each player is connected to a set of contests and exerts a single effort to increase the probability of winning each contest to which she is connected. We explore how behavior is shaped by the pattern of interactions and characterize the networks that tend to induce greater effort; in particular, we show that the complete bipartite network is the unique structure that maximizes aggregate player effort. We also obtain a new exclusion result—akin to the Exclusion Principle of Baye et al. (Am Econ Rev 83(1):289-294, 1993)—which holds under the lottery CSF, and contrasts prior work in contests. Finally, new insight into uniqueness of equilibrium for network contest games is provided. Our framework has a broad range of applications, including research and development, advertising, and research funding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study proposes a new class of heterogeneous causal quantities, referred to as outcome-conditioned average structural derivatives (OASDs), in a general nonseparable model. An OASD is the average partial effect of a marginal change in a continuous treatment on individuals located on different parts of an outcome distribution, irrespective of individuals' characteristics. We show that OASDs extend the unconditional quantile partial effects (UQPE) proposed by Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux to that conditional on a set of outcome values by effectively integrating the UQPE. Exploiting such relationship brings about two merits. First, unlike UQPE that is generally not n -estimable, OASD is shown to be n -estimable. Second, our estimator achieves semiparametric efficiency bound which is a new result in the literature. We propose a novel, automatic, debiased machine-learning estimator for an OASD, and present asymptotic statistical guarantees for it. The estimator is proven to be n -consistent, asymptotically normal, and semi-parametrically efficient. We also prove the validity of the bootstrap procedure for uniform inference for the OASD process. We apply the method to Imbens, Rubin, and Sacerdote's lottery data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outcomes of our decisions can have significant effects on subsequent decision-making processes. The study used the adapted lottery gambling task to investigate how consecutive near-wins (a specific decision outcome) affect an individual's propensity to make risky decisions. The study also examined the role of counterfactual emotions in this process. The results showed that (1) As the number of near-wins increased, individuals' risky decision-making tendency showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend, peaking when the number of consecutive near-wins was three. (2) Counterfactual emotions mediated the relationship between consecutive near-wins and risky decision-making. It suggests that the effect of consecutive near-wins on individuals' risky decision-making tendency is not simply a superposition of multiple single near-win results, and counterfactual emotions play a critical role in it. Individuals can make informed choices by understanding decision outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on lottery gambling shows that players do not select numbers randomly, a phenomenon which is called conscious selection. Mainly, players prefer "small" numbers (less than thirty), either because of the existence of small lucky numbers or because they are victims of the so-called birthday-number effect. Because lotto games are parimutuel, such preferences result in poor ticket choices in terms of achieving below average returns. Using data from Belgium, where approximately 10% of the population plays lotto games every week, this paper extends prior literature by documenting the existence of a gender gap in the birthday-number effect, with women displaying a stronger birthday-number effect than men, as well as the non-persistence of the birthday-number effect (and consecutively of the gender gap) when participants are asked to fill in a second lotto ticket immediately after their first one. The disappearance of the birthday-number effect in sequential choices appears to be driven by response speed, with participants being twice as fast to fill in the second ticket compared to the first one. Moreover, we find that participants who bet on their birthday numbers take significantly more time to complete their ticket. Contrary to prior research, we find that the strength of the birthday-number effect is positively related to deliberative number choices, not intuitive and automatic number choices. Our results are robust to controlling for potential confounding effects including those related to participants' age, education, self-esteem, and superstitious beliefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of scholars have argued that online gambling can be more problematic than land-based gambling. Motivating gamblers to withdraw money from their online gambling account could lower losses because there would be less money available to lose. Therefore, the present study investigated whether personalized messages are an effective way of 'nudging' gamblers to withdraw money from their online gambling account. The authors were given access to a secondary dataset by Nederlandse Loterij (the national Dutch Lottery operator) comprising 4049 online gamblers. Two types of messages were used to 'nudge' gamblers to withdraw money from their gambling account (i.e., a 'winning streak' message and a 'withdrawal' message). The findings indicated that (i) 38% of gamblers reading the 'winning streak' messages withdrew money from their gambling account on the same day, and (ii) 18% of gamblers reading the 'withdrawal' messages withdrew money from their gambling account on the same day. Gamblers who read personalized messages also withdrew larger amounts of money from their gambling accounts compared to gamblers who did not read personalized messages. The findings suggest that the personalized messages can have an impact on both the likelihood to withdraw money as well as the amount of money which was withdrawn and could help reduce gambling-related harm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Suppose we can save either a larger group of persons or a distinct, smaller group from some harm. Many people think that, all else equal, we ought to save the greater number. This article defends this view (with qualifications). But unlike earlier theories, it does not rely on the idea that several people's interests or claims receive greater aggregate weight. The argument starts from the idea that due to their stakes, the affected people have claims to have a say in the rescue decision. As rescuers, our primary duty is to respect these procedural claims, which we must do by doing what these people would decide, in a process where each is given an equal vote on the matter. So in cases where each votes in their own self‐interest, respect for their equal right to decide, or their autonomy, will lead us to save the greater number. The argument is explained in detail, with special attention to the questions of how, exactly, it avoids aggregation, and of why majority rule is superior to lottery procedures. The view has further advantages. Especially, it explains the "partial" relevance of numbers in cases involving unequal harms, and it does so in a way that dissolves the appearance of paradox that besets theories of "partial aggregation." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study introduces a new indicator to measure the lottery-like degree of financial products by considering their idiosyncratic volatility and skewness. The findings indicate that investors tend to purchase funds that hold lottery-like stocks, while investors prefer lottery-like funds when the market sentiment is high. However, funds holding lottery-like stocks and those exhibiting lottery traits experience relatively lower adjusted returns in the next quarter. Interestingly, when the market sentiment is high, investors can obtain better performance only from funds that hold lottery-like stocks, indicating that investors may be better off selecting lottery-holding funds rather than lottery-like funds during periods of high sentiment. Overall, our study sheds light on investor behavior and the impact of market sentiment on fund flows and performance in lottery-like funds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Adab Al-Kufa is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article explores the symbolic significance of numbers in Vietnam's underground lottery game, đề, based on ethnographic fieldwork in Ho Chi Minh City. It investigates how players interpret everyday events and dreams through numbers, creating a unique blend of personal and cultural symbolism. These number symbols function both publicly within the game's subculture and personally, resonating with broader anthropological discussions on the role of symbols in life narratives and cultural performances. By attaching numerical significance to mundane occurrences, players gain a sense of agency and foster shared cultural understanding. The article situates the lottery game within the broader context of Vietnamese culture, emphasizing the crucial role of numbers in daily life and calling for further exploration of numerical practices in Vietnamese society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel axiomatization of relative utilitarianism is provided using the single-profile setting used in Harsanyi's Social Aggregation Theorem. Harsanyi's axioms are supplemented with an impartiality axiom that requires social alternative lotteries p and q to be socially indifferent when (i) two individuals have conflicting preferences for them and everybody else is indifferent and (ii) the concerned individuals' strengths of preference for p over q have the same magnitude. This axiomatization shows that equality of the social weights can be obtained in a single-profile setting and that no interprofile condition is needed to obtain profile-independent weights in a multi-profile setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probability Matching, a classical violation of expected utility maximization, refers to people's tendency to randomize, or even match their choice frequency to the outcome probability, when choosing over binary lotteries that differ only in their probabilities. Why? I present an experiment designed to distinguish between several broad classes of explanations: (1) models of Correlation-Invariant Stochastic Choice — randomizing due to factors orthogonal to the correlation between lotteries, such as non-standard preferences or errors, and (2) models of Correlation-Sensitive Stochastic Choice — deliberately randomizing due to misperceived hedging opportunities, especially when lotteries are negatively correlated. My experimental design differentiates between their testable predictions by varying the correlation between lottery outcomes. The findings indicate that the first class, despite being home to most existing theories, has limited explanatory power. Using additional treatment, I rule out Similarity Heuristics as a competing explanation with the second class. The results indicate that a vast majority of individuals deliberately randomize due to misperceived hedging opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article I argue that justice often requires that candidates who are sufficiently qualified for jobs be hired via lottery on the basis that this is the best way to recognise each candidate's equal moral claim to access meaningful work. In reaching this conclusion I consider a variety of potential objections from the perspectives of the employer, of the most qualified candidate, and of third parties, but ultimately reject the idea that a person's status as the most qualified candidate can explain why they ought to be appointed over other sufficiently qualified candidates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objectives: This work provides an overview of the incentives used for plasma donation in Europe and beyond. The overview can provide new ideas to blood establishments. Materials and Methods: We conducted a systematic online search of incentives used and asked national experts to validate the data across all European Union countries as well as other European and non‐European countries. We categorized the data into level of incentive (using the Nuffield Council on Bioethics' rungs [2011]) and country. Results: We analysed more than 490 organizations across 26 countries. Our findings reveal different incentives used in these countries. Snacks and pre‐donation health checks are commonly provided. In addition, loyalty programmes, small gifts, vouchers, lotteries, travel compensations and time off from work extend the strategic incentive portfolio. Only seven countries offer financial compensation ranging from the equivalent of 10–35€ for European countries. In countries with a decentralized model, where more than one organization collects plasma, we observe that more diversified incentive strategies are generally used, including monetary and non‐monetary incentives. In countries with a centralized model, where only one organization is allowed to collect plasma, financial compensation is usually not offered. Centralized plasma collection without financial compensation relies on a wider range of non‐monetary incentives than with financial compensation. Conclusion: The country group analysis offers valuable insights into the relationship between incentive strategies and the prevailing centralized versus decentralized plasma collection model. This overview provides a broader understanding of incentives used by blood establishments and offers avenues for future practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Income is a relevant factor for explaining outbound tourism demand. However, when working with regional- or country-level data, it is difficult to disentangle the role of income in stimulating tourism travelling from other factors that correlate with greater income levels. This paper exploits a natural experiment from Spanish Christmas Lottery to estimate the causal effect of income shocks on outbound tourism. We leverage the staggered and quasi-random assignment of lottery winnings across Spanish regions to estimate the elasticity of outbound annual trips and expenditure to windfall gains. Using difference-in-differences with the amount of lottery prizes as an indicator of treatment intensity, we show that lottery winnings per capita increase both the annual number of tourism trips and expenditure per capita. This effect operates during the first 2 years following the draw, which is likely explained by bandwagon and income multiplier effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a cash transfer to relax households' borrowing constraints, then elicit their willingness to pay for a remedial education programme offering tutoring and life skills training. Lottery losers were willing to pay 3,300 Tanzanian Shillings for the programme, which is 7% of per capita monthly expenditures. For those identified at baseline as able to borrow, willingness to pay increases by 3% upon winning a lottery prize of 3,200 Tanzanian Shillings. For those unable to borrow, willingness to pay increases by 27% upon winning the lottery. We conclude that borrowing constraints limit access to educational programmes, and may increase inequality of educational attainment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why are high monetary payments prohibited for certain goods, thereby causing shortages in their supply? I conduct (i) a framed field experiment with a general population sample and (ii) a survey experiment with this sample and with ethics committees. In the experiment, participants can prohibit others from being offered money to register as stem-cell donors. I document that, whereas the majority of participants do not respond to changes in the incentives (63%) or become more in favour of the offer with higher incentives (20%), a minority of 17% prohibit high incentives. I show that this minority wants to protect individuals who are persuaded by high incentives. I also show that a lottery scheme reduces their objections to high incentives. Finally, I document that the public is much more supportive of high incentives than are ethics committees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The availability and prevalence of online gambling have significantly increased worldwide in the past 25 years. Connections have been established between online gambling and specific demographic characteristics, as well as gambling problems. In 2017, Pennsylvania legalized online gambling. Following legalization, the state saw a rapid expansion in online gambling availability, expanding into lottery, online casinos, and online sports betting. As part of this legislation, an annual assessment of the population prevalence of online gambling participation in the state of Pennsylvania is to occur. This study represents the first annual assessment of the impacts of legalized online gambling on Pennsylvania residents and establishes the 2020–2021 prevalence rate of online gambling within the state. A Dual Frame Random Digit Dial survey was conducted and 1,158 Pennsylvanians' participated in a 5-min telephone survey. Data were weighted to approximate the population of Pennsylvania. The results showed that approximately 11.1% of Pennsylvanians had engaged in online gambling in the previous 12 months. Furthermore, it was determined that 43.9% of the online gamblers had experienced at least one gambling problem in the previous 12 months. The results of this study have implications for the development of materials for the prevention of problem gambling and public policy for online gambling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the effectiveness of lottery incentive schemes for eliciting consumer valuations in large‐scale online experiments. We implement a fully incentivized condition within a geographically dispersed sample of consumers in which bids for a Criollo steak elicited by a Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak mechanism are realized with certainty and the products are priority shipped in dry‐ice coolers. The fully incentivized condition is compared to between‐subject random incentivized schemes, in which only a fraction of subjects realize their choices. We tested two treatments with a 10% probability framed as a percentage or an absolute number of subjects, one treatment with a 1% probability, and a purely hypothetical reference condition. The results reveal that between‐subject random incentivized schemes with 10% and 1% payment probabilities are effective in eliciting valuations that are statistically indistinguishable from the fully incentivized scheme. In addition to finding insignificant statistical differences between 10% and 1% and the fully incentivized scheme, all incentivized conditions mitigate hypothetical bias, resulting in lower product valuations than the purely hypothetical condition. We contribute a novel methodological framework for conducting large‐scale experiments with geographically diverse and representative subjects, increasing the external validity and producing reliable valuations while significantly reducing financial and logistic constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study constructs a Chinese lottery index (LI) based on six popular lottery preference variables by using the partial least squares method and examines the relationship between the LI and future stock market returns during the period from January 2000 to December 2021. We find that the LI can negatively predict stock market excess returns in‐sample and out‐of‐sample. In addition, the LI can generate a large economic gain for a mean–variance investor. Finally, the predictive sources of the LI stem from a cash flow channel and can be explained by the positive volume–volatility relationship and investor attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the legacy of Bill Clarke in shaping Saskatchewan's unique lottery system, which funds sports, culture, and recreation through non-profit organizations. Topics include the role of lotteries in Saskatchewan's volunteer-driven funding model, Clarke's contributions to amateur sports development, and the political and community challenges in establishing and maintaining the lottery system.

There is a Dutch Book argument for the axiom of countable additivity for subjective probability functions, but de Finetti famously rejected the axiom, arguing that it wrongly renders a uniform distribution impermissible over a countably infinite lottery. Dubins however showed that rejecting countable additivity has a strongly paradoxical consequence that a much weaker rule than countable additivity blocks. I argue that this rule, which also prohibits the de Finetti lottery, has powerful independent support in a desirable closure principle. I leave it as an open question whether countable additivity should be adopted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expectation is an example of a descriptive statistic that is monotone with respect to stochastic dominance, and additive for sums of independent random variables. We provide a complete characterization of such statistics, and explore a number of applications to models of individual and group decision‐making. These include a representation of stationary monotone time preferences, extending the work of Fishburn and Rubinstein (1982) to time lotteries. This extension offers a new perspective on risk attitudes toward time, as well as on the aggregation of multiple discount factors. We also offer a novel class of non‐expected utility preferences over gambles which satisfy invariance to background risk as well as betweenness, but are versatile enough to capture mixed risk attitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the allocation of indivisible objects under weak priorities, a common practice is to break the ties using a lottery and to randomize over deterministic mechanisms. Such randomizations usually lead to unfairness and inefficiency ex ante. We propose and study the concept of ex ante fairness for random allocations, extending some key results in the one‐sided and two‐sided matching markets. It is shown that the set of ex ante fair random allocations forms a complete and distributive lattice under first‐order stochastic‐dominance relations, and the agent‐optimal ex ante fair mechanism includes both the deferred acceptance algorithm and the probabilistic serial mechanism as special cases. Instead of randomizing over deterministic mechanisms, our mechanism is constructed using the division method, a new general way to construct random mechanisms from deterministic mechanisms. As additional applications, we demonstrate that several previous extensions of the probabilistic serial mechanism have their foundations in existing deterministic mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Which state-law cases should Congress allow into federal court? Congress's answer has always been "only the big ones." This article revisits the choice to limit diversity jurisdiction to higher-value cases and critically examines how Congress has approached setting the amount threshold. It surveys alternate ways Congress could use case value to sort which cases make it into the diversity docket. We explore lotteries, auctioning access to the highest bidder; setting an amount in controversy maximum rather than the current minimum, pegging the jurisdictional amount to the minimum wage or the cost of a hamburger; employing relative measures that use multiples (or*actions) of a litigant's income, and other devious proposals. Some of these proposals are too radical to ever happen. Others, like changing which damages count toward the limit, are mainstream enough to have been endorsed by the *deral.judiciary. Our goal is tojolt. Few items in Congress's jurisdictional toolkit are so consequential yet so taken for granted, so little examined, or so poorly understood. By reimagining the amount-in-controversy requirement, we aim to ignite renewed attention and appreciation to its impact on the diversity docket. More broadly, we eller this article as a new entry point to revisit the conceptual and doctrinal underpinnings of the federal diversity docket, and access to federal court generally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A critical debate has blossomed within the field of research policy, science and technology studies, and philosophy of science regarding the possible benefits and limitations of allocating extramural grants using a lottery system. The most common view among those supporting the lottery idea is that some form of modified lottery is acceptable, if properly combined with peer review. This means that partial randomization can be applied only after experts have screened the pursuit-worthiness of all submitted proposals and sorted out those of lowest quality. In the present paper, I will argue against the use of partial lotteries or partial randomization and instead promote use of a pure lottery in combination with a radical increase in block funding. The main reason for holding this position is that a partial lottery cannot solve the problems inherent in the current funding system, which is based on grant competitions and peer review. A partial lottery cannot decrease the enormous time-waste, reduce the uneven distribution of time between researchers, neutralize expert biases or mitigate academic power asymmetries. Instead, we need a stronger focus on improving general time management in academia by implementing a more holistic model for organizing research opportunities in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article I aim to counter Jason Brennan's principled objection to the Representativeness Argument for compulsory voting, and to criticize the case in favour of voting lotteries, on which this challenge is predicated. In brief, Brennan claims that compulsory voting should be rejected because there is an alternative system, i.e. a voting lottery, which is able to ensure demographic proportionality in electoral turnouts without diminishing the freedom of citizens. But even on the most favourable conception of freedom which the argument can employ, voting lotteries raise a number of serious concerns in respect to this value. Furthermore, while comparing voting lotteries and compulsory voting on the basis of freedom cannot provide any generalizable support for the former, a plausible case can instead be offered in support of the opposite idea, namely that compulsory voting outperforms voting lotteries with respect to freedom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social insurance motivations consider the welfare of others who are in potentially unfavorable situations. However, their role in increasing support for redistribution is not yet fully understood. The experiment reported here examined distributional decisions in which participants determined income distribution without being informed to which income class they would belong. This was contrasted with decisions made in lottery situations. Lottery decisions had the same risk for oneself, but they lacked a social context, namely the influence on the incomes of others. Less risky (more equal) decisions were observed in distributional decisions than in lottery decisions. Further, the selection of equality in distributional decisions (but not the risk aversion observed in lottery decisions) was positively correlated with support for welfare policies, which had been measured by a pre-experiment survey. This study observed the critical role of social context, which promotes the consideration of the welfare of others in fostering support for redistribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Problem gambling poses serious harm to individuals and societies worldwide. This study aims to investigate the relationship between stressful life events and problem gambling, and further explore the mediating role of coping strategies and magical thinking. Currently, the research on problem gambling is widely conducted worldwide. However, due to the unique characteristics of China's gambling industry, research on problem gambling conducted in the Chinese mainland has always been an underrepresented area in international gambling research. This study recruited participants from a province in central China, and data from 483 of them were ultimately analyzed. The data analysis results indicate that task-oriented coping, emotion-oriented coping, avoidance-oriented coping, and magical thinking all serve as mediators in the relationship between stressful life events and problem gambling. Emotion-oriented coping and magical thinking, avoidance-oriented coping and magical thinking, all serve as serial mediators in the relationship between stressful life events and problem gambling. Task-oriented coping and magical thinking did not act as serial mediators in this relationship. This study demonstrates that helping problem gamblers develop effective coping strategies and reduce their level of magical thinking is crucial for treating their problem gambling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the illusion of control by proxy in games of chance - an attempt to exert control by assigning it to others who are perceived as more capable, communable or luckier. Following up on research by Wohl & Enzle, who showed participants' preference to ask lucky others to play a lottery instead of doing it themselves, we included proxies with positive and negative qualities in the domains of agency and communion, as well good and bad luck. In three experiments (total N = 249) we tested participants' choices between these proxies and a random number generator in a task consisting of obtaining lottery numbers. We obtained consistent preventative illusions of control (i.e. avoidance of proxies with strictly negative qualities, as well as proxies with positive communion but negative agency), however we observed indifference between proxies with positive qualities and random number generators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies rely on traditional web survey methods in which all contacts with sample members are through email and the questionnaire is administered exclusively online. Because it is difficult to effectively administer prepaid incentives via email, researchers frequently employ lotteries or prize draws as incentives even though their influence on survey participation is small. The current study examines whether a prize draw is more effective if it is divided into a few larger amounts versus several smaller amounts and compares prize draws to a small but guaranteed postpaid incentive. Data are from the 2019 Campus Climate Survey on Sexual Assault and Sexual Misconduct. Sample members include 38,434 undergraduate and graduate students at a large Midwestern university who were randomly assigned to receive: a guaranteed $5 Amazon gift card; entry into a high-payout drawing for one of four $500 prizes; or entry into a low-payout drawing for one of twenty $100 prizes. Results indicate the guaranteed incentive increased response rates, with no difference between the prize draws. While results from various data quality outcomes show the guaranteed incentive reduced break-off rates and the high-payout drawing increased item nonresponse, there were no differences across incentive conditions in rates of speeding, reporting of sensitive data, straightlining, or sample representativeness. As expected, the prize draws had much lower overall and per complete costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the employment and income effects of access to credit dedicated to investment in individual mobility by exploiting time-series variation in access to credit through lotteries for participants in a group-lending mechanism in Brazil. We find that access to credit for investment in individual mobility increases formal employment rates and salaries, yielding an annual rate of return of 12 to 15 percent. Consistent with a geographically broader job search, individuals transition to jobs farther from home and public transportation. Our results suggest that accessing distant labor markets through credit for investment in individual mobility yields high and persistent returns. (JEL D44, E24, G21, G51, J61, J64, O15) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista de Derecho de la Seguridad Social, Laborum is the property of Ediciones Laborum S.L. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Distributed evaluations, machine learning, and lotteries are among the tactics being tested to improve the process and integrity of peer review. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since cash lotteries are frequently employed to stimulate participation in web surveys sampled from online access panels, the present study assesses the research gap concerning the relevance of respondents knowing their odds of winning these cash lotteries. Prior studies on the use of cash lotteries have not provided the odds of winning to respondents, which may have obscured their effects. Based on an experiment in which we varied the number of prizes, the size of prizes, and whether respondents knew the odds of winning, we replicated the findings of prior studies on the use of cash lotteries. Most importantly, our findings show that knowing the odds of winning cash lotteries did not affect the participation in our survey and did not influence the effects of other survey design elements. In our study, we provide survey practitioners with recommendations on the use of cash lotteries in online access panels and close with an outlook for future research on this topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last three decades, a little-noted change has taken place in state lotteries. This change is an increase in the average payout rate, the share of sales that is returned to players in the form of prizes. Because it reduces the rate of implicit taxation on lottery purchases and its accompanying welfare loss, this change has inadvertently made lotteries better, or at least less objectionable. This paper reviews the normative case for reducing the implied tax, documents the rise in payout rates across the United States, offers an explanation for that rise, notes the starring role played by instant games, illustrates its effect on the regressivity of lottery finance, and documents the surprising correlation between the price of instant games and their payout rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the book "Betting on the Civil Service Examinations: The Lottery in Late Qing China" by An Li. The book explores the development of the Weixing lottery in late Qing China and its social impacts. It examines the creation of a new community, increased understanding of the civil service examination, and changes in government practices. The book provides detailed descriptions of the Weixing lottery, its history, operations, and government policies. However, the author of the article raises concerns about errors in the book and questions some of the author's conclusions. [Extracted from the article]

The problem of how to attract a robust following on social media is one of the most pressing for influencers. We study a common practice on popular microblogging platforms such as Twitter, of influencers' expanding their followings by running lotteries and giveaways. We are interested in how the lottery size and the seeding decisions influence the information propagation and the final reward for such a campaign. We construct an information-diffusion model based on a random graph, and show that the market demand curve of the lottery reward via the promotion of the social network is "S"-shaped. This property lays a foundation for finding the optimal lottery size. Second, we observe that (i) dynamic seeding could re-stimulate the spread of information and (ii) with a fixed budget, seeding at two fixed occasions is always better than seeding once at the beginning. This observation motivates us to study the joint optimization of lottery size and adaptive seeding. We model the adaptive seeding problem as a Markov Decision Process. We find the monotonicity of the value functions and trends in the optimal actions, and we show that with adaptive seeding, the reward curve is approximately "S"-shaped with respect to the lottery size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do political leaders pursue their own parochial interests? Does the economic background of those in power affect the economy? Estimating the impact of leaders' interests without bias is difficult given the nonrandom nature of transitions between leaders in most regimes. This article exploits a selection mechanism in the Florentine Republic that combines features of election and lottery to evaluate the causal impact of leaders' economic interests. Coupling high-frequency data on the trading value of the Florentine currency with data on the guild association of each leader, I show that the export orientation of the Florentine executive, the standard-bearer of justice, had a large effect on the value of the city's currency, the florin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considerable debate has focused on whether pre-commitment to a money and/or time limit and adherence to that limit should be mandatory or voluntary. A unique feature of Ontario Lottery and Gaming's player management system (My PlaySmart) provides a middle ground by allowing players to select whether they are permitted to continue playing once their limit is reached (the soft lock option) or whether continued play is not permitted (the hard lock option). We assessed the relative responsible gambling utility of these two options using player account data by comparing play data before and after enrollment. Players who chose the hard lock option decreased their average coin-in, loss per visit, and minutes played per visit. In contrast, soft lock enrollees significantly reduced their coin in (but not to the same extent as those who chose the hard lock option) and increased their visits from pre-enrollment to post-enrollment. The play data for hard and soft lock enrollees was also benchmarked against play of non-enrollees. Results suggest that the soft lock option is relatively ineffective at limiting play, thus adding important knowledge to the ongoing debate about pre-commitment schemes that aim to advance responsible gambling to minimize gambling-related harms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper looks at Alexander Guerrero's epistemic case for 'lottocracy', or government by randomly selected citizen assemblies. It argues that Guerrero fails to show that citizen expertise is more likely to be elicited and brought to bear on democratic politics if we replace elections with random selection. However, randomly selected citizen assemblies can be valuable deliberative and participative additions to elected and appointed institutions even when citizens are not bearers of special knowledge or virtue individually or collectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide evidence regarding mutual funds' motivation to hold lottery stocks. Funds with higher managerial ownership invest less in lottery stocks, suggesting that managers themselves do not prefer such stocks. The evidence instead supports that managers cater to fund investors' preference for such stocks. In particular, funds with more lottery holdings attract larger flows after portfolio disclosure compared with their peers, and poorly performing funds tend to engage in risk shifting by increasing their lottery holdings toward year-ends. Funds' aggregate holdings of lottery stocks contribute to their overpricing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When allocating scarce goods and services, firms often either prioritize those willing to spend the most resources (e.g., money, in the case of markets; time, in the case of lines) or simply ignore such differences and allocate randomly (e.g., through lotteries). When do these resource-based allocation rules seem most appropriate, and why? Here, the authors propose that people are more likely to endorse markets and lines when these systems increase the likelihood that scarce goods and services go to those who have the strongest preferences—that is, when they help sort preferences. This is most feasible when preferences are dissimilar (i.e., some consumers want something much more than others). Consequently, people are naturally attuned to preference variance: when preferences for something are similar, markets and lines seem less appropriate, because it is unlikely that the highest bidders or those who have waited the longest actually have the strongest preferences. However, when preferences are dissimilar, markets and lines seem more appropriate, because they can more easily sort preferences. Consumers thus react negatively when firms use resource-based allocation rules in situations where preferences cannot be easily sorted (e.g., when preferences are similar). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the demographics, gambling-related harms, and risk for gambling disorder (GD) associated with an illegal national lottery-type game called Jogo do Bicho that is culturally unique to Brazil in a sample of 5407 representative Brazilian lottery players. Participants reported on demographics, gambling behaviors, gambling-related harms, and GD. A total of 27.0% of the participants reported playing Jogo do Bicho in the past year. Jogo do Bicho was associated with greater risk of GD with 5.7% of current Jogo do Bicho players meeting diagnostic criteria. Jogo do Bicho was also associated with greater gambling-related harms. Older participants, males, individuals who self-identified as Black, and who were widowed were more likely to be current Jogo do Bicho players. Jogo do Bicho is a popular activity among legal lottery players in Brazil despite its illegal status and is associated with greater harms and increased risk of GD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the so-called Press Freedom Period, 1770–1773, in Denmark-Norway, fierce and mostly anonymous criticism of the recently introduced number lottery emerged. This opposition went beyond mainstream patriotic discourse and produced narratives of players and lottery agents as socially irresponsible individuals. The article traces the initial development of a patriotic narrative concerning matters of morality, the deterioration of the labour force, and the perceived threats against the resilience of the state. We demonstrate how the focus of criticism – during the subsequent phase leading up to the closing of Press Freedom in October-November 1773 – shifted towards the practice of playing the lottery and the actors embodying this practice as victims or abettors of the operations of an ominous state-sanctioned enterprise. This rapid transformation of discourse was a unique feature of the Press Freedom Period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how mobile device usage affect retail investors' lottery behaviour. Using data from the Chinese stock market, which is dominated by retail investors, we observe a structural change in mobile investing trends in 2015. By employing a structural shift model, we find that higher mobile device usage in the market disproportionately increases the trading volume of lottery stocks and amplifies the lottery-related pricing anomaly. Our results suggest that the use of mobile devices increases retail investors' demand for lottery stocks by attention-induced trading, but fail to find evidence that mobile devices influence retail investors' inherent skewness preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The China sports lottery contributes to sports and welfare causes. This study aims to construct a macro forecasting model supporting its sustained growth aligned with Vision 2035. Methods: The modeling employed a distributional regression. Sales data of the China sports lottery from 2011 to 2022 were chosen as the response variable, alongside various macro- and event-level explanatory factors. Results: A gamma distribution best fit the data. In the stable model spanning 2011–2019, urbanization, population dynamics, and FIFA emerged as significant contributors (Chi–square p < 0.05) to the location shift parameter. These three factors retained their significance in the 2011–2022 shock model, where shock itself notably impacted sales (p < 0.001). Utilizing the shock model, we simulated the trajectory of the China sports lottery up to 2035. China's demographics changes are poised to create structural headwinds starting in 2026, leading to an anticipated decline in sales driven by population shifts from 2032 onward. However, the FIFA effect is projected to continue fortifying this sector. Conclusions: Beyond offering original insights into the sales trajectory until 2035, specifically concerning new urbanization, negative population growth, and the FIFA effect, this macro forecasting framework can assist in addressing the policy priority of balancing growth with risk mitigation. We recommend policymakers connect market development with mass sports, potentially garnering a dual boost from the growing population of older consumers and the inherent benefits of a "FIFA (mass sports)" effect. A people-centered approach to the China sports lottery could significantly contribute to the long–range objectives of achieving common prosperity outlined in Vision 2035. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to an increasingly popular view in epistemology and philosophy of mind, beliefs are sensitive to contextual factors such as practical factors and salient error possibilities. A prominent version of this view, called credal sensitivism, holds that the context-sensitivity of belief is due to the context-sensitivity of degrees of belief or credence. Credal sensitivism comes in two variants: while credence-one sensitivism (COS) holds that maximal confidence (credence one) is necessary for belief, threshold credal sensitivism (TCS) holds that belief consists in having credence above some threshold, where this threshold doesn't require maximal confidence. In this paper, I argue that COS has difficulties in accounting for three important features about belief: (i) the compatibility between believing p and assigning non-zero credence to certain error possibilities that one takes to entail not-p, (ii) the fact that outright beliefs can occur in different strengths, and (iii) beliefs held by unconscious subjects. I also argue that TCS can easily avoid these problems. Finally, I consider an alleged advantage of COS over TCS in terms of explaining beliefs about lotteries. I argue that lottery cases are rather more problematic for COS than TCS. In conclusion, TCS is the most plausible version of credal sensitivitism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]