Search

For political and administrative governance of land-use decisions, high-resolution and reliable spatial models are required over large areas and for various time horizons. We present a process-centered simulation model 'NextStand' (a forest landscape model, FLM) and its R-script, which predicts regional forest characteristics at a forest stand resolution. The model uses whole area stand data and is optimized for realistic iterative timber harvesting decisions, based on stand compositions (developing over time) and locations. We used the model for simulating spatial predictions of the Estonian forests in North Europe (2.3 Mha, about 2 M stands); the decisions were parameterized by land ownership, protection regimes, and rules of clear-cut harvesting. We illustrate the model application as a potential broad-scale Decision Support Tool by predicting how the forest age composition, placement of clear-cut areas, and connectivity of old stands will develop until the year 2050 under future scenarios. The country-scale outputs had a generally low within-scenario variance, which enabled to estimate some main land-use effects and uncertainties at small computing efforts. In forestry terms, we show that a continuation of recent intensive forest management trends will produce a decline of the national timber supplies in Estonia, which greatly varies among ownership types. In a conservation perspective, the current level of 13% forest area strictly protected can maintain an overall area of old forests by 2050, but their isolation is a problem for biodiversity conservation. The behavior of low-intensity forest management units (owners) and strict governance of clear-cut harvesting rules emerged as key questions for regional forest sustainability. Our study confirms that high-resolution modeling of future spatial composition of forest land is feasible when one can (i) delineate predictable spatial units of transformation (including management) and (ii) capture their variability of temporal change with simple ecological and socioeconomic (including human decision-making) variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of foraging parameters is fundamental for understanding predator ecology. Predation and feeding can vary with multiple factors, such as prey availability, presence of kleptoparasites and human disturbance. However, our knowledge is mostly limited to local scales, which prevents studying effects of environmental factors across larger ecological gradients. Here, we compared inter‐kill intervals and handling times of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) across a large latitudinal gradient, from subarctic to the Mediterranean ecosystems, using a standardised dataset of predicted adult ungulate kills from 107 GPS‐collared lynx from nine distinct populations in Europe. We analysed variations in these two foraging parameters in relation to proxies reflecting prey availability, scavengers' presence and human disturbance, to improve our understanding of lynx predation at a continental scale. We found that inter‐kill intervals and handling times varied between populations, social status and in different seasons within the year. We observed marked differences in inter‐kill intervals between populations, which do not appear to be driven by variation in handling time. Increases in habitat productivity (expressed by NDVI, used as a proxy for prey availability) resulted in reduced inter‐kill intervals (i.e. higher kill rates). We observed less variation in handling (i.e. feeding) times, although presence of dominant scavengers (wild boars and brown bears) and higher human impact led to significantly shorter handling times. This suggests that kleptoparasitism and human disturbance may limit the energetic input that lynx can obtain from their prey. We also observed that the human impact on foraging parameters can be consistent between some populations but context‐dependent for others, suggesting local adaptations by lynx. Our study highlights the value of large‐scale studies based on standardised datasets, which can aid the implementation of effective management measures, as patterns observed in one area might not be necessarily transferable to other regions. Our results also indicate the high degree of adaptability of these solitary felids, which enables them to meet their energy requirements and persist across a wide range of environmental conditions despite the constraints imposed by humans, dominant scavengers and variable prey availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fundamental problem of sustainability is how to reduce the double complexity of ecological and social systems into simple operational terms. We highlight that the conservation concept of focal species (selected species sensitive to a set of anthropogenic threats to their habitat) links multiple issues of ecological sustainability, and their habitat models can provide a practical tool for solving these issues. A review of the literature shows that most spatial modeling of focal species focuses on vertebrates, lacks the aspect of aquatic and soil habitats, and has been slow in the uptake by actual management planning. We elaborate on a deductive modeling approach that first generalizes the main influential dimensions of habitat change (threats), which are then parameterized as habitat quality estimates for focal species. If built on theoretical understanding and properly scaled, the maps produced with such models can cost-effectively describe the dynamics of ecological qualities across forest landscapes, help set conservation priorities, and reflect on management plans and practices. The models also serve as ecological hypotheses on biodiversity and landscape function. We illustrate this approach based on recent additions to the forest reserve network in Estonia, which addressed the insufficient protection of productive forest types. For this purpose, mostly former production forests that may require restoration were set aside. We distinguished seven major habitat dimensions and their representative taxa in these forests and depicted each dimension as a practical stand-scale decision tree of habitat quality. The model outcomes implied that popular stand-structural targets of active forest restoration would recover passively in reasonable time in these areas, while a critically degraded condition (loss of old trees of characteristic species) required management beyond reserve borders. Another hidden issue revealed was that only a few stands of consistently low habitat quality concentrated in the landscape to allow cost-efficient restoration planning. We conclude that useful habitat models for sustainable forest management have to balance single-species realism with stakeholder expectations of meaningful targets and scales. Addressing such social aspects through the focal species concept could accelerate the adoption of biodiversity distribution modeling in forestry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]