Search

Both climate scientists and non-scientists (laypeople) attribute extreme weather events to various influences. Laypeople’s attributions for these events are important as these attributions likely influence their views and actions about climate change and extreme events. Research has examined laypeople’s attribution scepticism about climate change in general; however, few climate scientists are familiar with the processes underpinning laypeople’s attributions for individual extreme events. Understanding these lay attributions is important for scientists to communicate their findings to the public. Following a brief summary of the way climate scientists calculate attributions for extreme weather events, we focus on cognitive and motivational processes that underlie laypeople’s attributions for specific events. These include a tendency to prefer single-cause rather than multiple-cause explanations, a discounting of whether possible causes covary with extreme events, a preference for sufficient causes over probabilities, applying prevailing causal narratives, and the influence of motivational factors. For climate scientists and communicators who wish to inform the public about the role of climate change in extreme weather events, these patterns suggest several strategies to explain scientists’ attributions for these events and enhance public engagement with climate change. These strategies include showing more explicitly that extreme weather events reflect multiple causal influences, that climate change is a mechanism that covaries with these events and increases the probability and intensity of many of these events, that human emissions contributing to climate change are controllable, and that misleading communications about weather attributions reflect motivated interests rather than good evidence.

The complexity and scale of problems being tackled by ergonomists is growing. Work and societal systems are becoming increasingly reliant on technology, and the technologies themselves are becoming...

The contemporary public health model for injury and violence prevention is a four-step process, which has been difficult to fully actualize in real-world contexts. This difficulty results from challenges in bridging science to practice and developing and applying population-level approaches. Prevention programmes and policies are embedded within and impacted by a range of system-level factors, which must be considered and actively managed when addressing complex public health challenges involving multiple sectors and stakeholders. To address these concerns, a systemic approach to population-level injury and violence prevention is being developed and explored by the Division of Analysis, Research, and Practice Integration in the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This article makes the case for and provides a high-level overview of this systemic approach, its various components, and how it is being applied in one governmental unit.

Primary objective: People often misattribute stroke survivors' symptoms to other causes such as their personality, especially when the survivors are young. As a result, these stroke survivors experience feelings of resentment towards and from their acquaintances, and may struggle to retain employment. This study aimed to clarify how people's misattributions for stroke symptoms were affected by varying information about the stroke. Methods: Experiment 1 examined whether the stroke survivor's age (72, 32 or unstated) and the information about the person's stroke (no information, explicit stroke or implied stroke) influenced participants' causal attributions for the stroke survivor's four ambiguous symptoms, such as fatigue. Experiment 2 examined the effect of the rapidity (a week or a year) with which the symptoms appeared. Results: When the scenario explicitly referred to stroke, participants attributed the ambiguous symptoms more to stroke, whereas when it did not mention stroke, participants attributed these symptoms more to other factors. When stroke was merely implied by reference to unilateral paralysis, participants rated stroke the best explanation when the target person was 72 but not when he was 32. Experiment 2 showed that stating that the symptoms happened rapidly heightened attributions to stroke in the 72-year-old but not the 32-year-old. Conclusions: These findings show how different information about stroke survivors affect people's attributions for survivors' behaviour; this has important implications for accurate diagnosis and effective rehabilitation that targets these attributions.

Background: Treatment with sacubitril-valsartan reduces mortality and heart failure (HF) events in HF with reduced ejection fraction and may reduce HF hospitalization in women with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Methods: EVALUATE-HF randomized 464 participants (109 women) with HF with reduced ejection fraction to sacubitril-valsartan or enalapril for 12 weeks. Documented left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤0.40 within the prior 12 months was required, although core laboratory LVEF>0.40 was permitted. Assessments of aortic stiffness (pulse pressure and characteristic impedance, Z c ) were performed at baseline and at trough and 4 hours postdose at weeks 4 and 12. Results: In models of change from baseline adjusted for baseline value, treatment with sacubitril-valsartan produced greater overall reductions in mean arterial pressure (treatment group difference, −3.0±0.8 mm Hg, P P c were greater in the sacubitril-valsartan group (−16±6 dyne×second/cm 5 , P =0.012). Post hoc analyses found evidence of effect modification by LVEF (interaction P =0.036). With LVEFc were greater in the sacubitril-valsartan group (trough, −3±8 dyne×second/cm 5 versus post-dose, −17±8 dyne×second/cm 5 ; interaction P =0.024) with no sex difference (treatment×sex interaction, P =0.3). With LVEF≥0.40, treatment with sacubitril-valsartan was associated with greater overall reductions in Z c in women (women, −80±21 dyne×second/cm 5 versus men, −20±13 dyne×second/cm 5 ; interaction P =0.019). Conclusions: In prespecified analyses that include pre- and postdose assessments at 4 and 12 weeks, treatment with sacubitril-valsartan was associated with greater postdose reductions in aortic Z c . In a post hoc analysis, sacubitril-valsartan was associated with sustained reductions in Z c in women with LVEF≥0.40. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique Identifier: NCT02874794.

We investigated responses to the 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence, New Zealand. This included two foreshocks (M5.7 and M5.8) and a mainshock doublet pair: M6.5 Cook Strait (CS) earthquake on 21st July and M6.6 Lake Grassmere (LG) earthquake on Friday 16th August. We examined relationships between preparedness, experience and beliefs during the earthquakes, as well as concern and subsequent preparedness actions. Results indicate that earthquake characteristics (e.g., time, location) influence the types of preparedness actions. While there was a reduction in new actions from the first mainshock doublet earthquake (CS) to the second (LG), there were a large number of participants who reviewed or revisited their prior actions, related to their beliefs about impacts, in a form of problem-focused targeted action. Females took more actions than did males, and had a higher rate of immediate aftershock concern. For all participants, concern was greater after the CS earthquake than after the full earthquake sequence, supporting the findings of McClure et al. (2016) that there is a limited window after an event to maximise the opportunity for effective preparedness initiatives. Findings additionally suggest that such post-earthquake preparedness initiatives should consider the impacts that elicited the highest rate of concern in an event, and should tailor messages towards them. While this earthquake sequence resulted in low levels of impact and damage, it presents interesting findings regarding how disruption (in lieu of major damage) influences earthquake preparedness actions, which is particularly important to understand in highly active regions often exposed to smaller impact events.

Bismaleimide (BMI) resins are gaining popularity as matrix materials in carbon fiber composites, especially in high temperature applications, due to their very high glass transition temperatures. Extended elevated temperature exposure can cause a decrease in the matrix dominated properties of BMI-matrix composites due to thermal damage mechanisms that can be chemical (crosslinking, oxidation) or physical (microcracking, delamination) in nature. The chemical damage begins at lower thermal exposures than the physical damage; however standard ultrasonic testing (UT) techniques detect only the physical damage, which is not apparent until a significant loss in matrix dominated properties, such as shear strength, have already occurred. In this study, a thermal damage detection method using a handheld Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer to detect chemical changes caused by thermal exposure of Solvay 5250-4/IM7 BMI composite laminates was investigated. Infrared spectra were collected from samples with varying levels of thermal exposure. The spectra were analyzed using multivariate analysis techniques. The FTIR measurements were combined with mechanical property changes measured using short beam strength testing (ASTM D2344-16 ) to develop a model which identified the onset and extent of damage by predicting the change in interlaminar shear strength based on IR spectral changes. We compare our model's performance to ultrasonic inspection as a method for identifying the onset of thermal damage. The FTIR based method detected statistically significant decreases in interlaminar shear strength at thermal exposures well below those causing UT-detectable damage.

Although many countries have legislation requiring strengthening of earthquake prone buildings, there are significant obstacles to retrofitting these buildings to make them more resilient. This research examines actions in regard to earthquake prone commercial and public buildings in Wellington and checks on private homes following the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes and the 2013 Seddon/Cook Strait earthquakes. The study obtained data on commercial and public buildings removed from the Wellington City Council Earthquake-prone Buildings List (EQPB List) from 2012 to 2016 due to various mitigation actions (e.g., demolition and strengthening). The study also obtained rates of self-initiated voluntary Quakecheck home assessments for the same period. Results indicate ongoing removal of significant numbers of buildings from the EQPB List in this period, with strengthening being the most frequent action. This finding suggests that despite real obstacles, various incentives including legislation are leading to consistent earthquake preparation over time, often before the legislative deadline. In contrast with the EQPB data, the Quakecheck data indicate a sharp but short-lived spike after the Seddon / Cook Strait earthquakes. As a marker of self-initiated mitigation action, this brief spike suggests that in the absence of relevant legislation or insurance incentives, citizens’ actions are only briefly influenced by the experience of an earthquake. These contrasting findings for EQPBs and Quakechecks suggest the value of legislation to drive mitigation actions for all buildings.

People tolerate different levels of risk owing to a variety of hazards. Previous research shows that the psychometric properties of hazards predict people's tolerance of them. However, this work has not taken into account events such as earthquakes. The present study tested how earthquakes score vis-à-vis risk properties and risk tolerance as compared to five other familiar hazards. Participants from Wellington, New Zealand (N=139) rated these six hazards using measures of risk characteristics and risk tolerance. Participants demonstrated different levels of risk tolerance for the different hazards and viewed earthquakes as having similar risk features to nuclear power. They also preferred different risk mitigation strategies for earthquakes (more government funding) to the other five hazards (stronger legislation). In addition, earthquake risk tolerance was predicted by different risk characteristics than the other five hazards. These findings will help risk communicators in identifying which risk characteristics to target to influence citizens' risk tolerance.

With visible disabilities, observers tend to overgeneralise from the disability. In contrast, with invisible disabilities such as traumatic brain injury and stroke, observers often fail to allow for challenges resulting from the disability. Persons who have suffered a stroke claim that people misunderstand their symptoms and stigmatise them as a result of these symptoms. This misunderstanding, which happens particularly with young survivors of stroke, may reflect people's causal attributions for symptoms that follow a stroke. Using a scenario design, this cross-sectional study examined whether people attribute ambiguous symptoms that may result from stroke to other causes (the stroke survivor's personality and age) and whether these attributions reflect the age of the stroke survivor. Participants (N = 120) read scenarios describing a male who was aged either 22, 72, or whose age was unstated and who showed four symptom changes: fatigue, depression, irritability and reduced friendships. For each symptom change, participants rated three causal attributions: the person's age, his personality and stroke. The age of the person in the scenario affected attributions; when the person in the scenario was 22, participants attributed his symptoms significantly more to his personality than to his age or stroke, whereas when he was 72, participants attributed his symptoms more to his age than to his personality or stroke and when his age was unstated, they attributed his symptoms equally to age, stroke and personality. Because misattributions for stroke symptoms hinder rehabilitation, therapy can target people's misattributions to enhance rehabilitation for survivors of stroke.

This study aimed to investigate the factors associated with the choice of trains over other means of suicide. We performed a case-control study using data on all suicides in Victoria, Australia between 2009 and 2012. Cases were those who died by rail suicide and controls were those who died by suicide by any other means. A logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between the choice of trains and a range of individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors. Individuals who were never married had double odds of using trains compared to individuals who were married. Those from areas with a higher proportion of people who travel to work by train also had greater odds of dying by railway suicide compared to those from areas with a relatively lower proportion of people who travel to work by train. Prevention efforts should consider limiting access to the railways and other evidence-based suicide prevention activities.

Surface tumours of bone may be a cause of confusion and diagnostic difficulty. Confusion may arise from the several descriptive adjectives used – parosteal, periosteal and juxtacortical. Diagnostic difficulties may arise from the lack of awareness of less common entities, insufficient biopsy sampling and a failure to understand the precise relationship of a lesion and the bone surface. In this review we define and classify the important lesions and indicate imaging, macroscopic and microscopic features which are useful for diagnosis.

There is an ever-increasing need for school psychology training programs to demonstrate their ability to produce competent practitioners. One method of addressing this need is through the assessment of self-efficacy. However, little research on self-efficacy in school psychology exists likely due to the lack of a psychometrically sound measure of this construct. To address this gap, we examined the construct validity of the Huber Inventory of Self-Efficacy for School Psychologists Research Version (HIS-SP-RV), a preexisting measure of self-efficacy, with a sample of 520 school psychology graduate students. Results suggest that the HIS-SP-RV is not a valid measure of trainee self-efficacy. We then created and conducted a psychometric evaluation of a shortened measure, the Huber Inventory of Trainee Self-Efficacy (HITS). Results supported the validity of a five-factor model. Implications for the use of the HITS for program evaluation, to improve trainee competence, and for future research are discussed.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand how framing messages about earthquake risk affect judgements about legislation requiring the strengthening of earthquake-prone buildings. Design/methodology/approach Scenarios described the legislation with a general population sample (n=271). Two types of framing effects were examined in a 2 (valence frame: positive or negative or positive) by 2 (numerical format frame: frequency/number or percentage) experimental design. Findings Scenarios reporting the number of earthquake-prone buildings (negative frequency format) increased support for the earthquake-strengthening legislation more than the same message framed positively (frequency number of resilient building) or as a percentage. Demographic variables such as previous earthquake experience and gender interacted with the framing effects, and other variables also predicted support for the legislation were identified. Research limitations/implications These results have direct implications for the use of framing effects messages in communications about earthquake risk and the wider domain. Originality/value This is the first study to show that the way the risk is framed affects citizens’ judgement of the value of earthquake legislation.

BACKGROUND: Case managers within injury compensation systems are confronted with various emotional demands. OBJECTIVE: Employing the concept of emotional labour, this paper explores distinctive aspects of these demands. METHODS: The findings are drawn from focus groups with 21 Australian case managers. RESULTS: Case managers work was characterised by extra-role commitments, emotional control, stress and balancing tensions arising from differing stakeholder expectations about outcomes related to compensation and return to work. CONCLUSIONS: By examining the experiences of case managers, the findings add to the literature on the emotional labour of front line service workers, especially with respect to the demands involved in managing the conflicting demands of work.

In July and August 2013, two moment magnitude 6.6 earthquakes occurred less than 80 km from the city of Wellington, New Zealand. The earthquakes were widely felt and injured over 100 people. Following the earthquakes, a survey was conducted in coastal suburbs of Wellington, one of which (Island Bay) had previously received sustained tsunami education and participated in community-based evacuation mapping. Both earthquakes were of insufficient strength and duration to meet the thresholds to prompt evacuation from coastal areas, as communicated in civil defence and emergency management messaging. As expected, the vast majority of residents did not evacuate, however, the surveys suggest that this was unrelated to the ground shaking intensity and duration, which were commonly over-estimated. Previous education is shown to have little influence on perception of potential tsunami impact, but responses showed accurate perception of safety in relation to the tsunami hazard zone. This study highlights the continuing need to actively engage with at-risk communities, both in terms of education and training around appropriate responses to natural or official tsunami warnings, and their active participation in the defining, designing and implementation of risk management practice at a community level.

This study examined the relationship between home risk and hospital treated injury in Australian children up to five years old. Women with children between two and four years of age enrolled in the Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL): Griffith Birth Cohort Study were invited to complete a Home Injury Prevention Survey from March 2013 to June 2014. A total home risk score (HRS) was calculated and linked to the child's injury related state-wide hospital emergency and admissions data and EFHL baseline demographic surveys. Data from 562 households relating to 566 child participants were included. We found an inverse relationship between home risk and child injury, with children living in homes with the least injury risk (based on the absence of hazardous structural features of the home and safe practices reported) having 1.90 times the injury rate of children living in high risk homes (95% CI 1.15-3.14). Whilst this appears counter-intuitive, families in the lowest risk homes were more likely to be socio-economically disadvantaged than families in the highest risk homes (more sole parents, lower maternal education levels, younger maternal age and lower income). After adjusting for demographic and socio-economic factors, the relationship between home risk and injury was no longer significant (p > 0.05). Our findings suggest that children in socio-economically deprived families have higher rates of injury, despite living in a physical environment that contains substantially fewer injury risks than their less deprived counterparts. Although measures to reduce child injury risk through the modification of the physical environment remain an important part of the injury prevention approach, our study findings support continued efforts to implement societal-wide, long term policy and practice changes to address the socioeconomic differentials in child health outcomes.

Research has shown that people often misinterpret probabilities reported by experts in the media. Previous research has found that people who are given a certain probability of a volcano eruption in a specific time window judge risk as higher in later time intervals within that window. The present study examines whether a similar pattern occurs with earthquakes and aftershocks. Participants in Wellington (N=102) and Christchurch (N=98) in New Zealand read expert forecasts of the risk of a Wellington earthquake and a large Christchurch aftershock within specified time windows, then estimated the risk in specific intervals across the time window. Participants judged the Wellington earthquake risk as higher toward the end of the 50 year time window whereas for a Christchurch aftershock, risk estimates initially increased then plateaued. Likelihood of preparing showed a different pattern to earthquake likelihood and was constant over the time windows. These findings suggest the influence of base rates and lay theories on interpretations of scientific forecasts.

Mental ill health after road traffic injury is common, as is the use of antidepressant medication after injury. Little is known about antidepressant use by injured people prior to their injury. The aim of this study is to describe the nature and extent of antidepressant use before and after road traffic injury.Victorian residents who claimed Transport Accident Commission (TAC) compensation for a non-catastrophic injury that occurred between 2010 and 2012 and provided consent for Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) linkage were included (n=734). PBS records dating from 12 months prior through to 12 months post injury were provided by the Department of Human Services (Canberra). PBS and TAC claims data were linked.Among participants, 12% used antidepressants before injury (84.4D efined Daily Doses/1000 person-days) and 17% used antidepressants after injury (114.1DDD/1000p-d). Only 7.7% of the injured cohort commenced antidepressant treatment post injury. Thus, of all post-injury antidepressant use, 45% could potentially be related to the incident injury, with the remaining 55% most probably a continuation of pre-injury use. Pre-injury use was more common among women (109.4 vs. 54.6 DDD/1000p-d, p0.0001), and those with whiplash injury (119.3 vs. 73.1, p=0.03). Cyclists and motorcyclists were less likely to use antidepressants pre-injury than car drivers (18.3 vs. 16.9 vs. 109.3, respectively; p0.001).Less than half of post-injury antidepressant use could potentially be attributable to the incident injury. These results highlight the importance of obtaining information on pre-injury health status before interpreting post-injury health service use to be an outcome of the injury in question.

To describe the relationship between maternal education and child health outcomes at 12 months of age in a cohort of children in urban Australia, and to determine whether this relationship could be explained by the intermediate factors of maternal health behaviour and the social environmental context. Data were derived from The Environments for Health Living Griffith Birth Cohort Study. Women attending their third trimester antenatal appointment at one of three public hospitals were recruited between 2006 and 2010 and invited to complete a 48-item, baseline self-administered questionnaire. Twelve months following the birth of their baby, a follow-up questionnaire consisting of 63 items was distributed. Women for whom complete follow-up data were not available were different from women who did complete follow-up data. The children of women with follow-up data—whom at the time of their pregnancy had not completed school or whose highest level of education was secondary school or a trade—had respectively a 59 and 57 % increased chance of having had a respiratory/infectious disease or injury in the first year of life (according to parent proxy-reports), compared to children of women with a tertiary education. When maternal behavioural and social environmental factors during pregnancy were included in the model (n=1914), the effect of secondary education was still evident but with a reduced odds ratio of 1.35 (95 % CI 1.07–1.72) and 1.19 (95 % CI 0.87–1.64), respectively. The effect of not having completed school was no longer significant. Results indicate that the relationship between maternal education and child outcomes may be mediated by maternal social environmental and behavioural factors. Results are likely an underestimation of the effect size, given the under representation in our cohort of participants with maternal characteristics associated with elevated risk of infant morbidity.

Maximising educational attainment is important for both individuals and societies. However, understanding of why some students achieve better than others is far from complete. Motivation and achievement data from a sample of 782 secondary-school students in New Zealand reveal that two specific types of outcome goals, namely maximal levels of aspiration and minimal boundary goals, predict subsequent student achievement independently of mastery, performance goals, self-efficacy, student demographics and context variables including school type and time spent in out-of-school activities. In addition, our results underline that the relationships between these two specific outcome goals and achievement are moderated by the type of assessment tasks used to index achievement. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that understanding variability in students' academic performance can be significantly enhanced by taking into consideration individual differences in the strength of their maximal levels of aspirations and minimal boundary goals.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the frequency and distribution of workplace injury claims by gender, and quantify the extent to which observed gender differences in injury claim rates are attributable to differential exposure to work-related factors. METHODS: WorkSafe Victoria (Australia) workers' compensation data (254,704 claims with affliction onset 2004-2011) were analysed. Claim rates were calculated by combining compensation data with state-wide employment data. RESULTS: Mental disorder claim rates were 1.9 times higher among women; physical injury claim rates were 1.4 times higher among men. Adjusting for occupational group reversed the gender difference in musculoskeletal and tendon injury claim rates, i.e., these were more common in women than men after adjusting for occupational exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Men had higher rates of physical injury claims than women, but this was mostly attributable to occupational factors. Women had higher rates of mental disorder claims than men; this was not fully explained by industry or occupation. Am. J. Ind. Med. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Language: en

Background Longitudinal research is subject to participant attrition. Systemic differences between retained participants and those lost to attrition potentially bias prevalence of outcomes, as well as exposure-outcome associations. This study examines the impact of attrition on the prevalence of child injury outcomes and the association between sociodemographic factors and child injury. Methods Participants were recruited as part of the Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL) birth cohort study. Baseline data were drawn from maternal surveys. Child injury outcome data were extracted from hospital records, 2006–2013. Participant attrition status was assessed up to 2014. Rates of injury-related episodes of care were calculated, taking into account exposure time and Poisson regression was performed to estimate exposure-outcome associations. Results Of the 2222 participating families, 799 families (36.0%) had complete follow-up data. Those with incomplete data included 137 (6.2%) who withdrew, 308 (13.8%) were lost to follow-up and 978 families (44.0%) who were partial/non-responders. Families of lower socioeconomic status were less likely to have complete follow-up data (p

Motivating household preparedness for earthquakes can be difficult, especially given the infrequent and varying nature of major events. Past research has shown that people's experiences contribute to their beliefs about whether, and how, they should prepare for earthquakes. Direct experience of a disaster can be a strong motivator of preparedness; however, most people will not directly experience a large damaging earthquake in their lifetimes. They instead need to rely on experience of small earthquakes, experience of different disasters, adverse life experiences (e.g. accidents), or vicarious experience. This paper explores the influence of such experiences on earthquake preparedness. The research found that experience has seven different influences on the preparedness process including: prompting thinking and talking; raising awareness and knowledge; helping individuals understand the consequences of a disaster; developing beliefs; developing preparedness; influencing emotions and feelings; and prompting community interaction on disaster issues.

This paper tests whether people's sense of connectedness with the natural environment is related to cognitive styles such as Kirton's adaption-innovation (KAI), and analytic-holistic thinking (AHT). We conducted two studies with Singaporean secondary students as participants. Study 1 (N = 138), using an online survey, established the significant positive relationship between the nature relatedness self subscale and both the KAI and the ART cognitive styles. Study 2 (N = 185), using pen and paper surveys, replicated Study 1's findings and found that connectedness with nature was significantly related to both the KAI and the ART cognitive styles beyond alternative explanations (demographic and well-being status). Students who were more connected with nature preferred innovative and holistic cognitive styles, while controlling for their general emotional status and well-being. These findings are the first to establish the link between connectedness with nature and cognitive styles. Future research and implications are discussed. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

This article argues that systems theory-based human factors methods have a key role to play in examining and enhancing systems of disaster response. This argument is supported by a first-of-its-kind test application of a popular risk management framework to describe bushfire response activities. Specifically, an Accimap of the response to a recent major Australian bushfire was constructed. The case study is used to test a series of predictions made by the risk management framework in order to test the applicability of this approach in a bushfire response context and to determine whether systems theory-based frameworks are compatible with the analysis of disaster response activities. In conclusion, the output demonstrates that such approaches are suited to the analysis of disaster response efforts. Moreover, it is argued that, compared to the existing individual component failures approach, this holistic systems approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of response performance and better promotes improvements to the overall disaster response system.

The impact of uncertainty on Disaster Risk Reduction decision-making has become a pressing issue for debate over recent years. How do key officials interpret and accommodate uncertainty in science advice, forecasts and warnings into their decision making? Volcanic eruptions present a particularly uncertain hazard environment, and to accommodate this scientists utilize probabilistic techniques to inform decision-making. However, the interpretation of probabilities is influenced by their framing. We investigate how verbal or numerical probabilities affect decisions to evacuate a hypothetical town, and reasons given for that decision, based upon a volcanic eruption forecast. We find fewer evacuations for verbal terms than for equivalent numerical terms, and that the former is viewed as more ambiguous. This difference is greater for scientists, which we suggest is due to their greater familiarity with numerical probabilities and a belief that they are more certain. We also find that many participants have a poor understanding of the relationship between probability and time window stated, resulting in an incorrect assessment of overall likelihood and more evacuations for the lower likelihood version of two scenarios. Further, we find that career sector (scientist or non-scientist) influences evacuation decisions, with scientists tending to reduce the uncertainty by focusing on the quality and volume of information provided, while non-scientists tended to either acknowledge or suppress the uncertainty, focusing on actions to take. These findings demonstrate the importance of identifying communication strategies that mitigate different perceptions of forecasts, to both enhance end-user decision making and to prevent premature, delayed, or unnecessary actions.

The Strategies Analysis Diagram (SAD) is a recently developed method to model the range of possible strategies available for activities in complex sociotechnical systems. Previous applications of the new method have shown that it can effectively identify a comprehensive range of strategies available to humans performing activity within a particular system. A recurring criticism of Ergonomics methods is however, that substantive evidence regarding their performance is lacking. For a method to be widely used by other practitioners such evaluations are necessary. This article presents an evaluation of criterion-referenced validity and test-retest reliability of the SAD method when used by novice analysts. The findings show that individual analyst performance was average. However, pooling the individual analyst outputs into a group model increased the reliability and validity of the method. It is concluded that the SAD method's reliability and validity can be assured through the use of a structured process in which analysts first construct an individual model, followed by either another analyst pooling the individual results or a group process pooling individual models into an agreed group model.

The issuing of forecasts and warnings of natural hazard events, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquake aftershock sequences and extreme weather often involves the use of probabilistic terms, particularly when communicated by scientific advisory groups to key decision-makers, who can differ greatly in relative expertise and function in the decision making process. Recipients may also differ in their perception of relative importance of political and economic influences on interpretation. Consequently, the interpretation of these probabilistic terms can vary greatly due to the framing of the statements, and whether verbal or numerical terms are used. We present a review from the psychology literature on how the framing of information influences communication of these probability terms. It is also unclear as to how people rate their perception of an event's likelihood throughout a time frame when a forecast time window is stated. Previous research has identified that, when presented with a 10-year time window forecast, participants viewed the likelihood of an event occurring ‘today’ as being of less than that in year 10. Here we show that this skew in perception also occurs for short-term time windows (under one week) that are of most relevance for emergency warnings. In addition, unlike the long-time window statements, the use of the phrasing “within the next…” instead of “in the next…” does not mitigate this skew, nor do we observe significant differences between the perceived likelihoods of scientists and non-scientists . This finding suggests that effects occurring due to the shorter time window may be ‘masking’ any differences in perception due to wording or career background observed for long-time window forecasts. These results have implications for scientific advice, warning forecasts, emergency management decision-making, and public information as any skew in perceived event likelihood towards the end of a forecast time window may result in an underestimate of the likelihood of an event occurring ‘today’ leading to potentially inappropriate action choices. We thus present some initial guidelines for communicating such eruption forecasts.

Underachievement and failure to complete school have long-term negative consequences for students. Aspirations regarding completion of secondary school that predict achievement outcomes are related to factors amenable to intervention. This study investigates relationships between academic achievement and self-reported educational aspirations, motivation, affiliation with peers and teachers, and attributions. Survey participants were 5369 Year 10 and Year 11 students at 19 nationally representative secondary schools in New Zealand, and available achievement records were sourced for 2439 Year 11 students. Survey data were factor analyzed followed by further examination of relationships across demographic factors, self-reported aspirations, motivational factors (Doing My Best and Doing Just Enough), attributions, and interpersonal affiliations (Teacher and Peer). For Year 11 students, relationships between different factors and subsequent achievement were also analyzed. Students who indicated no aspiration to complete a school qualification were indistinguishable from those with low or moderate aspirations, and the analyses supported only two divergent groups comprising students with either low or high aspirations to complete qualifications. Aspirations were significantly related to different patterns of motivation, affiliation, and attributions predictive of academic achievement. Students of different ethnicity and gender also fell unequally across the two groups. These results suggest that promoting low or even moderate expectations and aspirations for student achievement may actually reinforce lower academic achievement. Instead, teachers and schools should communicate high expectations to prevent school failure and effective interventions to enhance student outcomes.

Background Studies addressing work disability after road traffic injury are generally aimed at seriously injured hospital patients, and less is known about the disability burden associated with injuries not requiring hospitalisation. The aim of this study was to describe the distribution and determinants of work disability outcomes for patients with musculoskeletal and orthopaedic traffic injuries, including those not sufficiently severe to require hospitalisation. Methods Persons injured in road traffic accidents in 2005–2007 claiming compensation via the Transport Accident Commission (Victoria, Australia) were included if they had compensated time off work, and their most serious injury was musculoskeletal or orthopaedic (n = 5970). Work disability outcomes were determined from income compensation payments over 17 months following the accident. Logistic regression models were used relating demographic and injury characteristics to work disability. Results Of the injuries, 59% required hospitalisation; 15% required hospitalisation of >1 week. Long-term work disability was common with 32% of injuries resulting in work disability ≥6 months after the accident. The duration of work disability increased markedly with length of hospital stay. Those with no hospital stay accounted for 27% of all work disability days; those with ≤7 days in hospital (including no hospital stay) accounted for 71%. Female sex, age ≥35 years and early opioid prescriptions were also risk factors for work disability ≥6 months after the accident. Conclusion The majority of work disability days were among patients with one week or less in hospital. Because (short) hospitalisation was relatively common after traffic accidents, the relative work disability burden of non-hospitalised injury is not as great as in a mixed injury aetiology population.

Safe Communities, representing a global activation of the public health logic, may be strengthened through theoretical, methodological and empirical support. In the spirit of this Special Issue that aims to analyse the achievements and challenges inherent to Safe Communities, we offer our contribution in the form of a methodology of a multi-country child safety, peace and health promotion study. The study, situated within an African-centred initiative called Ukuphepha - an isiZulu word meaning demonstrating African safety - is underpinned by four theoretical claims that frame injury and violence prevention as a multi-disciplinary issue to be addressed through a suite of interventions to family and extended social systems. The interventions, sensitive to the priorities of each participating country, have been informed by the literature on effective interventions and the authors' joint experiences of community development. The study is designed as a population-based, multi-level, multi-intervention partly randomised controlled trial, and there are potentially 24 participant communities representing South Africa, Mozambique, Egypt, Zambia, Uganda, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Australia - over three commencement phases. Whereas process evaluation will focus on community engagement, impact evaluation will consider risk and protective factors, and outcome evaluation will examine the overall effectiveness of the interventions. Notwithstanding the many challenges, the study will provide insights into the methodology and mechanisms of ecologically-oriented interventions that locate injury and violence prevention as an activity arising from safety, peace and health promotion.

Purpose Understanding individual factors associated with return to work (RTW) post-injury is an important goal of compensation systems research. The aim of the present study was to determine factors associated with time to return to work following acute unintentional injuries. Methods A prospective cohort study was conducted in Victoria, Australia. The cohort comprised 133 persons who were employed at the time they were admitted to one of three study hospitals. Baseline health status data was obtained retrospectively at one-week post-injury and participants were further surveyed at 1, 6, 12, 26 and 52 weeks post-injury to measure recovery. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to examine the association between potential prognostic factors and time to RTW during the 12 month study. Results At the end of 12 months follow-up, 81.2% of the study cohort had returned to work. Older age, increased injury severity, self reported symptomatic pain and poor mental health at 1 week post-injury were associated with extended time to RTW. A significant statistical interaction between the receipt of compensation and high social functioning as measured by the SF-36 or strong social relationships as measured by the Assessment of Quality of Life was associated with earlier RTW. Participants reporting strong social relationships and high social functioning at 1 week post-injury and entitled to injury compensation returned to work 2.05 and 3.66 times earlier respectively, than similar participants with no entitlement to compensation. Conclusions Both injury-related and psychosocial factors were associated with the duration of time to RTW following acute unintentional injuries. This study replicated previously reported findings on social functioning and compensation from an independent acute trauma sample. Programs or policies to improve social functioning early post-injury may provide opportunities to improve the duration of time to RTW following injury.

Persistent or chronic pain is prevalent in many developed countries, with estimates ranging from 10% to higher than 50%, and is a major economic burden to individuals and societies. However, the variation in pain outcomes after acute orthopedic trauma and treatment confronts treating physicians with uncertainty in providing prognostic advice regarding long-term recovery. Although several previous reviews have addressed the determinants of chronic pain outcomes secondary to acute trauma, they have primarily focused on specific injury samples and, furthermore, lack consistency with respect to the important prognostic factors, which limits the generalizability of findings. This review, however, aimed specifically to identify the early prognostic factors associated with variation in persistent pain outcomes following acute orthopedic trauma presenting with a spectrum of pathologies.BACKGROUND: Acute orthopedic trauma contributes substantially to the global burden of disease.OBJECTIVES: The present systematic review aimed to summarize the current knowledge concerning prognostic factors for the presence of persistent pain, pain severity and pain-related disability following acute orthopedic trauma involving a spectrum of pathologies to working-age adults.METHODS: The Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched for level II prognostic studies published between January 1996 and October 2010. Studies that were longitudinal and reported results with multivariate analyses appropriate for prognostic studies were included. Studies that addressed two specific injury types that have been the subject of previous reviews, namely, injuries to the spinal column and amputations, were excluded.RESULTS: The searches yielded 992 studies; 10 studies met the inclusion criteria and were rated for methodological quality. Seventeen factors were considered in more than one cohort. There was strong evidence supporting the association of female sex, older age, high pain intensity, preinjury anxiety or depression, and fewer years of education with persistent pain outcomes. There was moderate evidence supporting the association between postinjury depression or anxiety with persistent pain, and that injury severity was not a risk factor for ongoing pain.CONCLUSION: Many individuals experience persistent pain following acute trauma. Due to the lack of studies, the use of different constructs to measure the same factor and the methodological limitations associated with many of the studies, the present review was only able to reliably identify a limited set of factors that predicted persistent pain. Recommendations for the conduct of future methodologically rigorous studies of persistent pain are provided.

Background Globalisation is mediated through a variety of flows including persons, information and ideas, capital, and goods. The process is increasingly recognised as a potential mediator of changes in attitudes and habits around the globe. Aim This research investigated the relationship between globalisation and suicide rates in 35 countries over the period 1980–2006. Methods The association between a globalisation “index” and suicide rates was tested using a fixed-effects regression model. The model also tested the influence of eleven other socio-economic variables on male and female suicide rates. Results Overall, high levels of the globalisation index were associated with higher male and female suicide rates; however, the significance of this association dropped when assessed alongside other social and economic variables. Conclusions While the nature of these findings should be regarded as exploratory, this paper highlights the need for researchers to consider the influence of world-changing phenomena like globalisation on suicide, which might deeply upset the traditional structure of societies with mixed types of impact.

Early identification of risk can support interventions to prevent academic failure. This study investigated patterns of evolution in achievement trajectories for 1,522 high school students in relation to initial achievement, student motivation, and key demographic characteristics. Growth mixture modeling identified 2 classes of longitudinal achievement patterns representing different trajectories toward leaving school either with or without qualifications. Negative motivation patterns on the factors Doing My Best and Doing Just Enough combined with initial student achievement were predictive of underachievement across the final 3 years of senior secondary school. These findings provide empirical support for the use of a simple motivation measure that can enhance identification of risk for school failure and inform interventions for different risk patterns. Boys who were not from the majority culture and who attended large schools in middle socioeconomic status communities were more likely to be on a trajectory for school failure than were girls, majority culture students, and boys in either low- or high-income school communities. Future research is needed to investigate the possibility of increased student risk in large, middle-income schools that may lack the kinds of resources and student supports available in high- and low-income schools.

Research has found a relation between motivation and attributions for success and failure. However, few studies have clarified the relationship of attributions to school achievement and possible cultural differences in this relationship. To investigate this issue, 5333 secondary students (European, Asian, Maori, Pacific) rated four common attributions – ability, effort, task difficulty, and luck – and three social influences (teachers, peers, and family) for their best and worst marks. Motivation orientations were also measured. Several measures were significantly related to students’ GPA scores, most notably the motivation orientations Doing My Best and Doing Just Enough , but also attributions to effort, teacher, and peer influences. There were substantial differences for ethnicity, particularly between European students and Maori and Pacific students. The results support theories claiming that effort attributions motivate achievement but also support the benefits of a self-serving bias.

Over recent years, there has been increasing recognition that the burden of injuries and violence includes more than just the direct and indirect monetary costs associated with their medical outcomes. However, quantification of the total burden has been seriously hampered by lack of a framework for considering the range of outcomes which comprise the burden, poor identification of the outcomes and their imprecise measurement. This article proposes a new conceptual framework, the List of All Deficits (or LOAD) Framework, that has been developed from extensive expert discussion and consensus meetings to facilitate the measurement of the full burden of injuries and violence. The LOAD Framework recognises the multidimensional nature of injury burden across individual, family and societal domains. This classification of potential consequences of injury was built on the International Classification of Functioning concept of disability. Examples of empirical support for each consequence were obtained from the scientific literature. Determining the multidimensional injury burden requires the assessment and combination of 20 domains of potential consequences. The resulting LOAD Framework classification and concept diagram describes 12 groups of injury consequences for individuals, three for family and close friends and five for wider society. Understanding the extent of the negative implications (or deficits) of injury, through application of the LOAD Framework, is needed to put existing burden of injury studies into context and to highlight the inter-relationship between the direct and indirect burden of injury relative to other conditions.

Objectives: To explore National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) funding for each National Health Priority Area (NHPA) over time and by grant type, and to quantify the relationship between grants awarded and a range of measures of societal burden of disease (BoD). Design and setting: We conducted a retrospective analysis of NHMRC funding for each NHPA from 2000 to 2008 to assess the strength of correlation between level of NHMRC funding and contribution of each health condition to BoD. Information on mortality, incidence, prevalence, "healthy" years of life lost due to disability (YLD), years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was obtained from the 2003 Australian BoD study. Information on health system expenditure for each NHPA was obtained from an Australian Institute of Health and Welfare report. Main outcome measures: Observed versus expected number of grants; amount of funding allocated to each NHPA; relative contribution of each NHPA health condition to BoD. Results: 6099 new and continuing NHMRC grants were linked to NHPAs. Total NHMRC funding by NHPA was strongly correlated with YLL and DALYs, but there was no clear association between the amount of funding per NHPA and YLD or health system expenditure. Based on the proportional contribution of each NHPA health condition to total NHPA-related DALYs, a higher than expected number of grants was allocated to diabetes and cancer research, and a lower than expected number to injury and mental health research. Conclusions: Some of Australia's NHPAs are better funded than others. The NHMRC could begin to redress this imbalance by allocating research and workforce development funding to less well developed research areas to ensure appropriate resourcing that is commensurate with their contribution to BoD.

Many citizens misunderstand the actions of persons with brain injury, and these misunderstandings hamper rehabilitation. A specific misunderstanding is where people misattribute behaviours resulting from brain injury to the injured person's personality or life stage (e.g., adolescence). The present study examined if this pattern is explained by the Abnormal Conditions Focus model of attribution, which claims that attributions for behaviours reflect whether the behaviours are normal for the person (Consistency) and the culture (Consensus). Scenarios described an adolescent with brain injury performing four undesirable behaviours and then indicated whether the behaviour was normal or not normal for the person prior to injury and normal or not normal for that person's culture. For each of the four behaviours, students (n = 136) rated three attributions: brain injury, personality and adolescent norms. Participants attributed the behaviours more to brain injury and less to personality when the behaviours were not normal for that person than when they were normal for the person. They attributed the behaviours more to adolescence when the behaviours were normal for the person's culture than when they were not normal for the culture. Rehabilitation implications include assessing individuals' premorbid behaviour to enable citizens and less experienced professionals to make more accurate attributions for behaviours and target treatment more effectively.