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Abstract Background In 2013, the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommended Option B+ as a strategy to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV. In option B+ , lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) is offered to all HIV positive pregnant and breastfeeding women to reduce MTCT rate to less than or equal to 5%. Its success depends on retaining women on ART during pregnancy, delivery and breast-feeding period. There is limited data on early retention on ART among pregnant women in Zimbabwe. We therefore assessed early retention among women on Option B + from antenatal care (ANC) until 6 months post ANC booking and at delivery in Bulawayo city and Mazowe rural district of Zimbabwe. Methods We collected data for pregnant women booking for ANC between January and March 2018, comparing early retention among ART naïve women and those already on ART. The two cohorts were followed up for 6 months post ANC booking, and this was done in two districts. Data were collected from routine tools used at facility level which include ANC, delivery and ART registers. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate retention probabilities at 1, 3 and 6 months post-delivery and for retention at delivery proportions were used. Poisson regression was used to investigate factors associated with non-retention at 6 months post ANC booking. Results A total of 388 women were included in the study with median age of 29 years (IQR: 25–34). Two-thirds booked in their second trimester. Retention at 3 and 6 months post ANC booking was 84% (95% CI 80–88) and 73% (95% CI 69–78) respectively. At delivery 81% (95% CI 76–84) were retained in care, 18% lost-to-follow-up and 1% transferred out. In this study we did not find marital status, gestation age, facility location, ART status at ANC booking, to be associated with loss to follow-up. Conclusion In this study, we found low retention at 3, 6 months and delivery, a threat to elimination of Mother-to-child Transmission of HIV in Zimbabwe. Our findings emphasize the need for enhanced interventions to improve early retention such as post-test counselling, patient tracing and visit reminders.

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread disruptions including to health services. In the early response to the pandemic many countries restricted population movements and some health services were suspended or limited. In late 2020 and early 2021 some countries re-imposed restrictions. Health authorities need to balance the potential harms of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to contacts associated with health services against the benefits of those services, including fewer new HIV infections and deaths. This paper examines these trade-offs for select HIV services.MethodsWe used four HIV simulation models (Goals, HIV Synthesis, Optima HIV and EMOD) to estimate the benefits of continuing HIV services in terms of fewer new HIV infections and deaths. We used three COVID-19 transmission models (Covasim, Cooper/Smith and a simple contact model) to estimate the additional deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 transmission among health workers and clients. We examined four HIV services: voluntary medical male circumcision, HIV diagnostic testing, viral load testing and programs to prevent mother-to-child transmission. We compared COVID-19 deaths in 2020 and 2021 with HIV deaths occurring now and over the next 50 years discounted to present value. The models were applied to countries with a range of HIV and COVID-19 epidemics.ResultsMaintaining these HIV services could lead to additional COVID-19 deaths of 0.002 to 0.15 per 10,000 clients. HIV-related deaths averted are estimated to be much larger, 19-146 discounted deaths per 10,000 clients.DiscussionWhile there is some additional short-term risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with providing HIV services, the risk of additional COVID-19 deaths is at least 100 times less than the HIV deaths averted by those services. Ministries of Health need to take into account many factors in deciding when and how to offer essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work shows that the benefits of continuing key HIV services are far larger than the risks of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

BackgroundZimbabwe adopted voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as a priority HIV prevention strategy in 2007 and began implementation in 2009. We evaluated the costs and impact of this VMMC program to date and in future.MethodsThree mathematical models describing Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic and program evolution were calibrated to household survey data on prevalence and risk behaviors, with circumcision coverage calibrated to program-reported VMMCs. We compared trends in new infections and costs to a counterfactual without VMMC. Input assumptions were agreed in workshops with national stakeholders in 2015 and 2017.ResultsThe VMMC program averted 2,600-12,200 infections (among men and women combined) by the end of 2016. This impact will grow as circumcised men are protected lifelong, and onward dynamic transmission effects, which protect women via reduced incidence and prevalence in their male partners, increase over time. If other prevention interventions remain at 2016 coverages, the VMMCs already performed will avert 24,400-69,800 infections (2.3-5% of all new infections) through 2030. If coverage targets are achieved by 2021 and maintained, the program will avert 108,000-171,000 infections (10-13% of all new infections) by 2030, costing $2,100-3,250 per infection averted relative to no VMMC. Annual savings from averted treatment needs will outweigh VMMC maintenance costs once coverage targets are reached. If Zimbabwe also achieves ambitious UNAIDS targets for scaling up treatment and prevention efforts, VMMC will reduce the HIV incidence remaining at 2030 by one-third, critically contributing to the UNAIDS goal of 90% incidence reduction.ConclusionsVMMC can substantially impact Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic in the coming years; this investment will save costs in the longer term.