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Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these "knowns" about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast calibration and communication. We highlight how incentives may shape forecasts, and particularly forecast uncertainty, in light of calibration challenges. We illustrate these challenges in creating, communicating, and evaluating election predictions, using the Economist and Fivethirtyeight forecasts of the 2020 election as examples, and offer recommendations for forecasters and scholars.

Differential privacy (DP) is a mathematical definition of privacy that can be widely applied when publishing data. DP has been recognized as a potential means of adhering to various privacy-related legal requirements. However, it can be difficult to reason about whether DP may be appropriate for a given context due to tensions that arise when it is brought from theory into practice. To aid policymaking around privacy concerns, we identify three categories of challenges to understanding DP along with associated questions that policymakers can ask about the potential deployment context to anticipate its impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The average causal effect can often be best understood in the context of its variation. We demonstrate with two sets of four graphs, all of which represent the same average effect but with much different patterns of heterogeneity. As with the famous correlation quartet of Anscombe, these graphs dramatize the way in which real-world variation can be more complex than simple numerical summaries. The graphs also give insight into why the average effect is often much smaller than anticipated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Authors often transform a large screen visualization for smaller displays through rescaling, aggregation and other techniques when creating visualizations for both desktop and mobile devices (i.e., responsive visualization). However, transformations can alter relationships or patterns implied by the large screen view, requiring authors to reason carefully about what information to preserve while adjusting their design for the smaller display. We propose an automated approach to approximating the loss of support for task-oriented visualization insights (identification, comparison, and trend) in responsive transformation of a source visualization. We operationalize identification, comparison, and trend loss as objective functions calculated by comparing properties of the rendered source visualization to each realized target (small screen) visualization. To evaluate the utility of our approach, we train machine learning models on human ranked small screen alternative visualizations across a set of source visualizations. We find that our approach achieves an accuracy of 84% (random forest model) in ranking visualizations. We demonstrate this approach in a prototype responsive visualization recommender that enumerates responsive transformations using Answer Set Programming and evaluates the preservation of task-oriented insights using our loss measures. We discuss implications of our approach for the development of automated and semi-automated responsive visualization recommendation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic graphs are challenging to visualize using the traditional node-link diagram. Encoding edge probability using visual variables like width or fuzziness makes it difficult for users of static network visualizations to estimate network statistics like densities, isolates, path lengths, or clustering under uncertainty. We introduce Network Hypothetical Outcome Plots (NetHOPs), a visualization technique that animates a sequence of network realizations sampled from a network distribution defined by probabilistic edges. NetHOPs employ an aggregation and anchoring algorithm used in dynamic and longitudinal graph drawing to parameterize layout stability for uncertainty estimation. We present a community matching algorithm to enable visualizing the uncertainty of cluster membership and community occurrence. We describe the results of a study in which 51 network experts used NetHOPs to complete a set of common visual analysis tasks and reported how they perceived network structures and properties subject to uncertainty. Participants' estimates fell, on average, within 11% of the ground truth statistics, suggesting NetHOPs can be a reasonable approach for enabling network analysts to reason about multiple properties under uncertainty. Participants appeared to articulate the distribution of network statistics slightly more accurately when they could manipulate the layout anchoring and the animation speed. Based on these findings, we synthesize design recommendations for developing and using animated visualizations for probabilistic networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many real-world strategic settings, people use information displays to make decisions. In these settings, an information provider chooses which information to provide to strategic agents and how to present it, and agents formulate a best response based on the information and their anticipation of how others will behave. We contribute the results of a controlled online experiment to examine how the provision and presentation of information impacts people's decisions in a congestion game. Our experiment compares how different visualization approaches for displaying this information, including bar charts and hypothetical outcome plots, and different information conditions, including where the visualized information is private versus public (i.e., available to all agents), affect decision making and welfare. We characterize the effects of visualization anticipation, referring to changes to behavior when an agent goes from alone having access to a visualization to knowing that others also have access to the visualization to guide their decisions. We also empirically identify the visualization equilibrium, i.e., the visualization for which the visualized outcome of agents' decisions matches the realized decisions of the agents who view it. We reflect on the implications of visualization equilibria and visualization anticipation for designing information displays for real-world strategic settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased access to mobile devices motivates the need to design communicative visualizations that are responsive to varying screen sizes. However, relatively little design guidance or tooling is currently available to authors. We contribute a detailed characterization of responsive visualization strategies in communication‐oriented visualizations, identifying 76 total strategies by analyzing 378 pairs of large screen (LS) and small screen (SS) visualizations from online articles and reports. Our analysis distinguishes between the Targets of responsive visualization, referring to what elements of a design are changed and Actions representing how targets are changed. We identify key trade‐offs related to authors' need to maintain graphical density, referring to the amount of information per pixel, while also maintaining the "message" or intended takeaways for users of a visualization. We discuss implications of our findings for future visualization tool design to support responsive transformation of visualization designs, including requirements for automated recommenders for communication‐oriented responsive visualizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty visualizations often emphasize point estimates to support magnitude estimates or decisions through visual comparison. However, when design choices emphasize means, users may overlook uncertainty information and misinterpret visual distance as a proxy for effect size. We present findings from a mixed design experiment on Mechanical Turk which tests eight uncertainty visualization designs: 95% containment intervals, hypothetical outcome plots, densities, and quantile dotplots, each with and without means added. We find that adding means to uncertainty visualizations has small biasing effects on both magnitude estimation and decision-making, consistent with discounting uncertainty. We also see that visualization designs that support the least biased effect size estimation do not support the best decision-making, suggesting that a chart user's sense of effect size may not necessarily be identical when they use the same information for different tasks. In a qualitative analysis of users' strategy descriptions, we find that many users switch strategies and do not employ an optimal strategy when one exists. Uncertainty visualizations which are optimally designed in theory may not be the most effective in practice because of the ways that users satisfice with heuristics, suggesting opportunities to better understand visualization effectiveness by modeling sets of potential strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Bayesian view of data interpretation suggests that a visualization user should update their existing beliefs about a parameter's value in accordance with the amount of information about the parameter value captured by the new observations. Extending recent work applying Bayesian models to understand and evaluate belief updating from visualizations, we show how the predictions of Bayesian inference can be used to guide more rational belief updating. We design a Bayesian inference-assisted uncertainty analogy that numerically relates uncertainty in observed data to the user's subjective uncertainty, and a posterior visualization that prescribes how a user should update their beliefs given their prior beliefs and the observed data. In a pre-registered experiment on 4,800 people, we find that when a newly observed data sample is relatively small (N=158), both techniques reliably improve people's Bayesian updating on average compared to the current best practice of visualizing uncertainty in the observed data. For large data samples (N=5208), where people's updated beliefs tend to deviate more strongly from the prescriptions of a Bayesian model, we find evidence that the effectiveness of the two forms of Bayesian assistance may depend on people's proclivity toward trusting the source of the data. We discuss how our results provide insight into individual processes of belief updating and subjective uncertainty, and how understanding these aspects of interpretation paves the way for more sophisticated interactive visualizations for analysis and communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When forecasting events, multiple types of uncertainty are often inherently present in the modeling process. Various uncertainty typologies exist, and each type of uncertainty has different implications a scientist might want to convey. In this work, we focus on one type of distinction between direct quantitative uncertainty and indirect qualitative uncertainty. Direct quantitative uncertainty describes uncertainty about facts, numbers, and hypotheses that can be communicated in absolute quantitative forms such as probability distributions or confidence intervals. Indirect qualitative uncertainty describes the quality of knowledge concerning how effectively facts, numbers, or hypotheses represent reality, such as evidence confidence scales proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A large body of research demonstrates that both experts and novices have difficulty reasoning with quantitative uncertainty, and visualizations of uncertainty can help with such traditionally challenging concepts. However, the question of if, and how, people may reason with multiple types of uncertainty associated with a forecast remains largely unexplored. In this series of studies, we seek to understand if individuals can integrate indirect uncertainty about how "good" a model is (operationalized as a qualitative expression of forecaster confidence) with quantified uncertainty in a prediction (operationalized as a quantile dotplot visualization of a predicted distribution). Our first study results suggest that participants utilize both direct quantitative uncertainty and indirect qualitative uncertainty when conveyed as quantile dotplots and forecaster confidence. In manipulations where forecasters were less sure about their prediction, participants made more conservative judgments. In our second study, we varied the amount of quantified uncertainty (in the form of the SD of the visualized distributions) to examine how participants' decisions changed under different combinations of quantified uncertainty (variance) and qualitative uncertainty (low, medium, and high forecaster confidence). The second study results suggest that participants updated their judgments in the direction predicted by both qualitative confidence information (e.g., becoming more conservative when the forecaster confidence is low) and quantitative uncertainty (e.g., becoming more conservative when the variance is increased). Based on the findings from both experiments, we recommend that forecasters present qualitative expressions of model confidence whenever possible alongside quantified uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Students who eat breakfast more frequently tend to have a higher grade point average. From this data, many people might confidently state that a before-school breakfast program would lead to higher grades. This is a reasoning error, because correlation does not necessarily indicate causation – X and Y can be correlated without one directly causing the other. While this error is pervasive, its prevalence might be amplified or mitigated by the way that the data is presented to a viewer. Across three crowdsourced experiments, we examined whether how simple data relations are presented would mitigate this reasoning error. The first experiment tested examples similar to the breakfast-GPA relation, varying in the plausibility of the causal link. We asked participants to rate their level of agreement that the relation was correlated, which they rated appropriately as high. However, participants also expressed high agreement with a causal interpretation of the data. Levels of support for the causal interpretation were not equally strong across visualization types: causality ratings were highest for text descriptions and bar graphs, but weaker for scatter plots. But is this effect driven by bar graphs aggregating data into two groups or by the visual encoding type? We isolated data aggregation versus visual encoding type and examined their individual effect on perceived causality. Overall, different visualization designs afford different cognitive reasoning affordances across the same data. High levels of data aggregation by graphs tend to be associated with higher perceived causality in data. Participants perceived line and dot visual encodings as more causal than bar encodings. Our results demonstrate how some visualization designs trigger stronger causal links while choosing others can help mitigate unwarranted perceptions of causality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clear presentation of uncertainty is an exception rather than rule in media articles, data-driven reports, and consumer applications, despite proposed techniques for communicating sources of uncertainty in data. This work considers, Why do so many visualization authors choose not to visualize uncertainty? I contribute a detailed characterization of practices, associations, and attitudes related to uncertainty communication among visualization authors, derived from the results of surveying 90 authors who regularly create visualizations for others as part of their work, and interviewing thirteen influential visualization designers. My results highlight challenges that authors face and expose assumptions and inconsistencies in beliefs about the role of uncertainty in visualization. In particular, a clear contradiction arises between authors' acknowledgment of the value of depicting uncertainty and the norm of omitting direct depiction of uncertainty. To help explain this contradiction, I present a rhetorical model of uncertainty omission in visualization-based communication. I also adapt a formal statistical model of how viewers judge the strength of a signal in a visualization to visualization-based communication, to argue that uncertainty communication necessarily reduces degrees of freedom in viewers' statistical inferences. I conclude with recommendations for how visualization research on uncertainty communication could better serve practitioners' current needs and values while deepening understanding of assumptions that reinforce uncertainty omission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to visualizing input data, interactive visualizations have the potential to be social artifacts that reveal other people's perspectives on the data. However, how such social information embedded in a visualization impacts a viewer's interpretation of the data remains unknown. Inspired by recent interactive visualizations that display people's expectations of data against the data, we conducted a controlled experiment to evaluate the effect of showing social information in the form of other people's expectations on people's ability to recall the data, the degree to which they adjust their expectations to align with the data, and their trust in the accuracy of the data. We found that social information that exhibits a high degree of consensus lead participants to recall the data more accurately relative to participants who were exposed to the data alone. Additionally, participants trusted the accuracy of the data less and were more likely to maintain their initial expectations when other people's expectations aligned with their own initial expectations but not with the data. We conclude by characterizing the design space for visualizing others' expectations alongside data. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Visualizations often appear in multiples, either in a single display (e.g., small multiples, dashboard) or across time or space (e.g., slideshow, set of dashboards). However, existing visualization design guidelines typically focus on single rather than multiple views. Solely following these guidelines can lead to effective yet inconsistent views (e.g., the same field has different axes domains across charts), making interpretation slow and error-prone. Moreover, little is known how consistency balances with other design considerations, making it difficult to incorporate consistency mechanisms in visualization authoring software. We present a wizard-of-oz study in which we observed how Tableau users achieve and sacrifice consistency in an exploration-to-presentation visualization design scenario. We extend (from our prior work) a set of encoding-specific constraints defining consistency across multiple views. Using the constraints as a checklist in our study, we observed cases where participants spontaneously maintained consistent encodings and warned cases where consistency was overlooked. In response to the warnings, participants either revised views for consistency or stated why they thought consistency should be overwritten. We categorize participants' actions and responses as constraint validations and exceptions, depicting the relative importance of consistency and other design considerations under various circumstances (e.g., data cardinality, available encoding resources, chart layout). We discuss automatic consistency checking as a constraint-satisfaction problem and provide design implications for communicating inconsistencies to users. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

People often have erroneous intuitions about the results of uncertain processes, such as scientific experiments. Many uncertainty visualizations assume considerable statistical knowledge, but have been shown to prompt erroneous conclusions even when users possess this knowledge. Active learning approaches been shown to improve statistical reasoning, but are rarely applied in visualizing uncertainty in scientific reports. We present a controlled study to evaluate the impact of an interactive, graphical uncertainty prediction technique for communicating uncertainty in experiment results. Using our technique, users sketch their prediction of the uncertainty in experimental effects prior to viewing the true sampling distribution from an experiment. We find that having a user graphically predict the possible effects from experiment replications is an effective way to improve one's ability to make predictions about replications of new experiments. Additionally, visualizing uncertainty as a set of discrete outcomes, as opposed to a continuous probability distribution, can improve recall of a sampling distribution from a single experiment. Our work has implications for various applications where it is important to elicit peoples' estimates of probability distributions and to communicate uncertainty effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Little is known about how people structure sets of visualizations to support sequential viewing. We contribute findings from several studies examining visualization sequencing and reception. In our first study, people made decisions between various possible structures as they ordered a set of related visualizations (consisting of either bar charts or thematic maps) into what they considered the clearest sequence for showing the data. We find that most people structure visualization sequences hierarchically: they create high level groupings based on shared data properties like time period, measure, level of aggregation, and spatial region, then order the views within these groupings. We also observe a tendency for certain types of similarities between views, like a common spatial region or aggregation level, to be seen as more appropriate categories for organizing views in a sequence than others, like a common time period or measure. In a second study, we find that viewers' perceptions of the quality and intention of different sequences are largely consistent with the perceptions of the users who created them. The understanding of sequence preferences and perceptions that emerges from our studies has implications for the development of visualization authoring tools and sequence recommendations for guided analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many visual depictions of probability distributions, such as error bars, are difficult for users to accurately interpret. We present and study an alternative representation, Hypothetical Outcome Plots (HOPs), that animates a finite set of individual draws. In contrast to the statistical background required to interpret many static representations of distributions, HOPs require relatively little background knowledge to interpret. Instead, HOPs enables viewers to infer properties of the distribution using mental processes like counting and integration. We conducted an experiment comparing HOPs to error bars and violin plots. With HOPs, people made much more accurate judgments about plots of two and three quantities. Accuracy was similar with all three representations for most questions about distributions of a single quantity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conveying a narrative with visualizations often requires choosing an order in which to present visualizations. While evidence exists that narrative sequencing in traditional stories can affect comprehension and memory, little is known about how sequencing choices affect narrative visualization. We consider the forms and reactions to sequencing in narrative visualization presentations to provide a deeper understanding with a focus on linear, 'slideshow-style' presentations. We conduct a qualitative analysis of 42 professional narrative visualizations to gain empirical knowledge on the forms that structure and sequence take. Based on the results of this study we propose a graph-driven approach for automatically identifying effective sequences in a set of visualizations to be presented linearly. Our approach identifies possible transitions in a visualization set and prioritizes local (visualization-to-visualization) transitions based on an objective function that minimizes the cost of transitions from the audience perspective. We conduct two studies to validate this function. We also expand the approach with additional knowledge of user preferences for different types of local transitions and the effects of global sequencing strategies on memory, preference, and comprehension. Our results include a relative ranking of types of visualization transitions by the audience perspective and support for memory and subjective rating benefits of visualization sequences that use parallelism as a structural device. We discuss how these insights can guide the design of narrative visualization and systems that support optimization of visualization sequence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eliciting knowledge from domain experts can play an important role throughout the machine learning process, from correctly specifying the task to evaluating model results. However, knowledge elicitation is also fraught with challenges. In this work, we consider why and how machine learning researchers elicit knowledge from experts in the model development process. We develop a taxonomy to characterize elicitation approaches according to the elicitation goal, elicitation target, elicitation process, and use of elicited knowledge. We analyze the elicitation trends observed in 28 papers with this taxonomy and identify opportunities for adding rigor to these elicitation approaches. We suggest future directions for research in elicitation for machine learning by highlighting avenues for further exploration and drawing on what we can learn from elicitation research in other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning (ML) methods are proliferating in scientific research. However, the adoption of these methods has been accompanied by failures of validity, reproducibility, and generalizability. These failures can hinder scientific progress, lead to false consensus around invalid claims, and undermine the credibility of ML-based science. ML methods are often applied and fail in similar ways across disciplines. Motivated by this observation, our goal is to provide clear recommendations for conducting and reporting ML-based science. Drawing from an extensive review of past literature, we present the REFORMS checklist (recommendations for machine-learning-based science). It consists of 32 questions and a paired set of guidelines. REFORMS was developed on the basis of a consensus of 19 researchers across computer science, data science, mathematics, social sciences, and biomedical sciences. REFORMS can serve as a resource for researchers when designing and implementing a study, for referees when reviewing papers, and for journals when enforcing standards for transparency and reproducibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Narrative visualizations combine conventions of communicative and exploratory information visualization to convey an intended story. We demonstrate visualization rhetoric as an analytical framework for understanding how design techniques that prioritize particular interpretations in visualizations that "tell a story" can significantly affect end-user interpretation. We draw a parallel between narrative visualization interpretation and evidence from framing studies in political messaging, decision-making, and literary studies. Devices for understanding the rhetorical nature of narrative information visualizations are presented, informed by the rigorous application of concepts from critical theory, semiotics, journalism, and political theory. We draw attention to how design tactics represent additions or omissions of information at various levels−the data, visual representation, textual annotations, and interactivity−and how visualizations denote and connote phenomena with reference to unstated viewing conventions and codes. Classes of rhetorical techniques identified via a systematic analysis of recent narrative visualizations are presented, and characterized according to their rhetorical contribution to the visualization. We describe how designers and researchers can benefit from the potentially positive aspects of visualization rhetoric in designing engaging, layered narrative visualizations and how our framework can shed light on how a visualization design prioritizes specific interpretations. We identify areas where future inquiry into visualization rhetoric can improve understanding of visualization interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many well-cited theories for visualization design state that a visual representation should be optimized for quick and immediate interpretation by a user. Distracting elements like decorative "chartjunk" or extraneous information are avoided so as not to slow comprehension. Yet several recent studies in visualization research provide evidence that non-efficient visual elements may benefit comprehension and recall on the part of users. Similarly, findings from studies related to learning from visual displays in various subfields of psychology suggest that introducing cognitive difficulties to visualization interaction can improve a user's understanding of important information. In this paper, we synthesize empirical results from cross-disciplinary research on visual information representations, providing a counterpoint to efficiency-based design theory with guidelines that describe how visual difficulties can be introduced to benefit comprehension and recall. We identify conditions under which the application of visual difficulties is appropriate based on underlying factors in visualization interaction like active processing and engagement. We characterize effective graph design as a trade-off between efficiency and learning difficulties in order to provide Information Visualization (InfoVis) researchers and practitioners with a framework for organizing explorations of graphs for which comprehension and recall are crucial. We identify implications of this view for the design and evaluation of information visualizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effectively designed data visualizations allow viewers to use their powerful visual systems to understand patterns in data across science, education, health, and public policy. But ineffectively designed visualizations can cause confusion, misunderstanding, or even distrust—especially among viewers with low graphical literacy. We review research-backed guidelines for creating effective and intuitive visualizations oriented toward communicating data to students, coworkers, and the general public. We describe how the visual system can quickly extract broad statistics from a display, whereas poorly designed displays can lead to misperceptions and illusions. Extracting global statistics is fast, but comparing between subsets of values is slow. Effective graphics avoid taxing working memory, guide attention, and respect familiar conventions. Data visualizations can play a critical role in teaching and communication, provided that designers tailor those visualizations to their audience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]