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Abstract To achieve the goals of the 2030 Global Biodiversity Framework, the European Biodiversity Strategy, and the EU Green Deal, biodiversity monitoring is critical. Monitoring efforts in Europe, however, suffer from gaps and biases in taxonomy, spatial coverage, and temporal resolution, resulting in fragmented and disconnected data. To assess user and policy needs in biodiversity monitoring, we employed a four‐step user‐centered stakeholder engagement process with over 300 stakeholders including a public stakeholder workshop, online survey, interviews, and a meeting with experts from 18 EU member states, the European Commission, and the European Environment Agency. The stakeholders identified policy needs, current challenges, and potential solutions. Based on the policy and stakeholder assessment, we recommend establishing a European Biodiversity Observation Coordinating Centre to optimize existing observation efforts, harmonize data, and enhance our ability to predict and respond to key challenges related to biodiversity loss in Europe.

Abstract The European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has not halted farmland biodiversity loss. The CAP post‐2023 has a new ‘‘Green Architecture,’’ including the new ‘‘Eco‐scheme’’ instrument. How can this new Green Architecture help tackle the biodiversity crisis? Through 13 workshops and an online survey, over 300 experts from 23 European Member States addressed this question. From experts’ contributions, key principles for success include preserving and restoring (semi)natural elements and extensive grasslands; improving spatial planning and landscape‐scale implementation, including through collective actions; implementing result‐based approaches; and improved knowledge exchange. To maximize the effectiveness of Eco‐scheme for biodiversity, experts highlighted the need to prioritize evidence‐based actions, allocate a sufficient budget for biodiversity, and incentivize management improvements through higher payment levels. Additionally, stronger coherence is needed among CAP instruments. For effective CAP implementation, the European Commission and the Member States should expand investments in biodiversity monitoring, knowledge transfer, and capacity‐building within relevant institutions. The remaining risks in the CAP's ability to reverse the loss of farmland biodiversity still require better design, closer monitoring, greater transparency, and better engagement with farmers. Additionally, greater involvement of scientists is needed to guide the CAP toward restoring farmland biodiversity while accounting for synergies and trade‐offs with other objectives.

Abstract Butterflies are considered important indicators representing the state of biodiversity and key ecosystem functions, but their use as bioindicators requires a better understanding of how their observed response is linked to environmental factors. Moreover, better understanding how butterfly faunas vary with climate and land cover may be useful to estimate the potential impacts of various drivers, including climate change, botanical succession, grazing, and afforestation. It is particularly important to establish which species of butterflies are sensitive to each environmental driver. The study took place in Israel, including the West Bank and Golan Heights. To develop a robust and systematic approach for identifying how butterfly faunas vary with the environment, we analyzed the occurrence of 73 species and the abundance of 24 species from Israeli Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (BMS‐IL) data. We used regional generalized additive models to quantify butterfly abundance, and generalized linear latent variable models and generalized linear models to quantify the impact of temperature, rainfall, soil type, and habitat on individual species and on the species community. Species richness was higher for cooler transects, and also for hilly and mountainous transects in the Mediterranean region (rendzina and Terra rossa soils) compared with the coastal plain (Hamra soil) and semiarid northern Jordan Vale (loessial sierozem soil). Species occurrence was better explained by temperature (negative correlation) than precipitation, while for abundance the opposite pattern was found. Soil type and habitat were insignificant drivers of occurrence and abundance. Butterfly faunas responded very strongly to temperature, even when accounting for other environmental factors. We expect that some butterfly species will disappear from marginal sites with global warming, and a large proportion will become rarer as the region becomes increasingly arid.

Abstract Making agriculture sustainable is a global challenge. In the European Union (EU), the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is failing with respect to biodiversity, climate, soil, land degradation as well as socio‐economic challenges. The European Commission's proposal for a CAP post‐2020 provides a scope for enhanced sustainability. However, it also allows Member States to choose low‐ambition implementation pathways. It therefore remains essential to address citizens' demands for sustainable agriculture and rectify systemic weaknesses in the CAP, using the full breadth of available scientific evidence and knowledge. Concerned about current attempts to dilute the environmental ambition of the future CAP, and the lack of concrete proposals for improving the CAP in the draft of the European Green Deal, we call on the European Parliament, Council and Commission to adopt 10 urgent action points for delivering sustainable food production, biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation. Knowledge is available to help moving towards evidence‐based, sustainable European agriculture that can benefit people, nature and their joint futures. The statements made in this article have the broad support of the scientific community, as expressed by above 3,600 signatories to the preprint version of this manuscript. The list can be found here (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3685632). A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Abstract National and local governments need to step up efforts to effectively implement the post‐2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity to halt and reverse worsening biodiversity trends. Drawing on recent advances in interdisciplinary biodiversity science, we propose a framework for improved implementation by national and subnational governments. First, the identification of actions and the promotion of ownership across stakeholders need to recognize the multiple values of biodiversity and account for remote responsibility. Second, cross‐sectorial implementation and mainstreaming should adopt scalable and multifunctional ecosystem restoration approaches and target positive futures for nature and people. Third, assessment of progress and adaptive management can be informed by novel biodiversity monitoring and modeling approaches handling the multidimensionality of biodiversity change.

Abstract Increasing evidence—synthesized in this paper—shows that economic growth contributes to biodiversity loss via greater resource consumption and higher emissions. Nonetheless, a review of international biodiversity and sustainability policies shows that the majority advocate economic growth. Since improvements in resource use efficiency have so far not allowed for absolute global reductions in resource use and pollution, we question the support for economic growth in these policies, where inadequate attention is paid to the question of how growth can be decoupled from biodiversity loss. Drawing on the literature about alternatives to economic growth, we explore this contradiction and suggest ways forward to halt global biodiversity decline. These include policy proposals to move beyond the growth paradigm while enhancing overall prosperity, which can be implemented by combining top‐down and bottom‐up governance across scales. Finally, we call the attention of researchers and policy makers to two immediate steps: acknowledge the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation in future policies; and explore socioeconomic trajectories beyond economic growth in the next generation of biodiversity scenarios.

The effects of habitat loss on the distribution of populations are often linked with species specialization degree. Specialist species can be more affected by changes in landscape structure and local patch characteristics compared to generalist species. Moreover, the spatial scale at which different land covers (eg. habitat, cropland, urban areas) affect specialist species can be smaller. Specialization is usually assumed as a constant trait along the distribution range of species. However, for several taxa, there is evidence of higher specialization degree in peripheral populations compared with populations in the core. Hence, peripheral populations should have a higher sensitivity to habitat loss, and strongest effects should be found at a smaller spatial scale. To test these expectations, we implemented a patch-landscape approach at different spatial scales, and compared effects of landscape structure and patch characteristics on occupancy probability among northern peripheral, more specialized populations (Czech Republic) and core populations (Bulgaria) of the eastern green lizard Lacerta viridis. We found that landscape structure and patch characteristics affect differently the occupancy probability of Lacerta viridis in each region. Strongest effects of habitat loss were found at a spatial scale of 150m around patches in the periphery, but at a scale of 500m in the core. In the periphery occupancy probability of populations was principally affected by landscape composition, and the effect of habitat quality was stronger compared to core populations. In the core, persistence of populations was mainly explained by characteristics of the spatial configuration of habitat patches. We discuss possible ecological mechanisms behind the relationship between sensitivity to habitat loss, populations' specialization degree and position in the distribution range, and suggest conservation measures for L. viridis.

Habitat destruction and fragmentation alter the quality of habitats and put populations under the risk of extinction. Changes in population parameters can provide early warning signs of negative impacts. In tropical forests, where habitat loss and fragmentation are vast, such indicators are of high relevance for directing conservation efforts before effects are irreversible. Most of our knowledge from tropical ecosystems originates from community level surveys, whereas our understanding of the influence of habitat conversion on vital rates of species is limited. This study focused on the influence of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation on the survival probability and abundance of three leaf-litter frog species (Rhinella ornata, Ischnocnema guentheri and I. parva) in forest patches of the Atlantic rainforest of South-east Brazil compared to a continuous forest. The species differ in their matrix tolerance: high for R. ornata and low for I. guentheri and I. parva and, thus, we examined whether their survival and abundance correspond to this classification. Ischnocnema guentheri showed highest abundances in all study sites and low mortality in the forest patches compared to the continuous forest; I. parva was encountered only in isolated fragments, with very low mortality in one isolated fragment; and the matrix tolerant species had generally low abundance and showed no clear pattern in terms of mortality in the different sites. Our counter-intuitive results show that even matrix sensitive amphibian species may show high abundance and low mortality in small forest patches. Therefore, these patches can be of high value for amphibian conservation regardless of their degree of matrix aversion. Landscape level conservation planning should not abandon small habitat patches, especially in highly fragmented tropical environments.

Abstract The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (https://www.nhm.ac.uk/our-science/our-work/biodiversity/predicts.html)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Tropical bird assemblages display patterns of high alpha and beta diversity and, as tropical birds exhibit strong habitat specificity, their spatial distributions are generally assumed to be driven primarily by environmental heterogeneity and interspecific interactions. However, spatial distributions of some Amazonian forest birds are also often restricted by large rivers and other large-scale topographic features, suggesting that dispersal limitation may also play a role in driving species' turnover. In this study, we evaluated the effects of environmental characteristics, topographic and spatial variables on variation in local assemblage structure and diversity of birds in an old-growth forest in central Amazonia. Birds were mist-netted in 72 plots distributed systematically across a 10,000 ha reserve in each of three years. Alpha diversity remained stable through time, but species composition changed. Spatial variation in bird-assemblage structure was significantly related to environmental and topographic variables but not strongly related to spatial variables. At a broad scale, we found bird assemblages to be significantly distinct between two watersheds that are divided by a central ridgeline. We did not detect an effect of the ridgeline per se in driving these patterns, indicating that most birds are able to fly across it, and that differences in assemblage structure between watersheds may be due to unmeasured environmental variables or unique combinations of measured variables. Our study indicates that complex geography and landscape features can act together with environmental variables to drive changes in the diversity and composition of tropical bird assemblages at local scales, but highlights that we still know very little about what makes different parts of tropical forest suitable for different species.

The ecological literature deals with uncertainty primarily from the perspective of how to reduce it to acceptable levels. However, the current rapid and ubiquitous environmental changes, as well as anticipated rates of change, pose novel conditions and complex dynamics due to which many sources of uncertainty are difficult or even impossible to reduce. These include both uncertainty in knowledge (epistemic uncertainty) and societal responses to it. Under these conditions, an increasing number of studies ask how one can deal with uncertainty as it is. Here, we explore the question how to adopt an overall alternative attitude to uncertainty, which accepts or even embraces it. First, we show that seeking to reduce uncertainty may be counterproductive under some circumstances. It may yield overconfidence, ignoring early warning signs, policy- and societal stagnation, or irresponsible behaviour if personal certainty is offered by externalization of environmental costs. We then demonstrate that uncertainty can have positive impacts by driving improvements in knowledge, promoting cautious action, contributing to keeping societies flexible and adaptable, enhancing awareness, support and involvement of the public in nature conservation, and enhancing cooperation and communication. We discuss the risks of employing a certainty paradigm on uncertain knowledge, the potential benefits of adopting an alternative attitude to uncertainty, and the need to implement such an attitude across scales – from adaptive management at the local scale, to the evolving Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) at the global level.

This paper summarises discussions in a workshop entitled “exploring uncertainties in biodiversity science, policy and management”. It draws together experiences gained by scientists and scholars when encountering and coping with different types of uncertainty in their work in the field of biodiversity protection. The discussion covers all main phases of scientific work: field work and data analysis; methodologies; setting goals for research projects, taking simultaneously into account the agency of scientists conducting the work; developing communication with policy-makers and society at large; and giving arguments for the societal relevance of the issues. The paper concludes with a plea for collaborative learning that would build upon close cooperation among specialists who have developed expertise in different fields in research, management and politics.

Landscape simulators are widely applied in landscape ecology for generating landscape patterns. These models can be divided into two categories: pattern-based models that generate spatial patterns irrespective of the processes that shape them, and process-based models that attempt to generate patterns based on the processes that shape them. The latter often tend toward complexity in an attempt to obtain high predictive precision, but are rarely used for generic or theoretical purposes. Here we show that a simple process-based simulator can generate a variety of spatial patterns including realistic ones, typifying landscapes fragmented by anthropogenic activities. The model "G-RaFFe" generates roads and fields to reproduce the processes in which forests are converted into arable lands. For a selected level of habitat cover, three factors dominate its outcomes: the number of roads (accessibility), maximum field size (accounting for land ownership patterns), and maximum field disconnection (which enables field to be detached from roads). We compared the performance of G-RaFFe to three other models: Simmap (neutral model), Qrule (fractal-based) and Dinamica EGO (with 4 model versions differing in complexity). A PCA-based analysis indicated G-RaFFe and Dinamica version 4 (most complex) to perform best in matching realistic spatial patterns, but an alternative analysis which considers model variability identified G-RaFFe and Qrule as performing best. We also found model performance to be affected by habitat cover and the actual land-uses, the latter reflecting on land ownership patterns. We suggest that simple process-based generators such as G-RaFFe can be used to generate spatial patterns as templates for theoretical analyses, as well as for gaining better understanding of the relation between spatial processes and patterns. We suggest caution in applying neutral or fractal-based approaches, since spatial patterns that typify anthropogenic landscapes are often non-fractal in nature.

Mountains provide an opportunity to examine changes in biodiversity across environmental gradients and areas of transition (ecotones). Mountain ecotones separate vegetation belts. Here, we aimed to examine whether transition areas for birds and butterflies spatially correspond with ecotones between three previously described altitudinal vegetation belts on Mt. Hermon, northern Israel. These include the Mediterranean Maquis, xero-montane open forest and Tragacanthic mountain steppe vegetation belts. We sampled the abundance of bird and butterfly species in 34 sampling locations along an elevational gradient between 500 and 2200 m. We applied wombling, a boundary-detection technique, which detects rapid changes in a continuous variable, in order to locate the transition areas for bird and butterfly communities and compare the location of these areas with the location of vegetation belts as described in earlier studies of Mt. Hermon. We found some correspondence between the areas of transition of both bird and butterfly communities and the ecotones between vegetation belts. For birds and butterflies, important transitions occurred at the lower vegetation ecotone between Mediterranean maquis and the xero-montane open forest vegetation belts, and between the xero-montane open forest and the mountain steppe Tragacanthic belts. While patterns of species turnover with elevation were similar for birds and butterflies, the change in species richness and diversity with elevation differed substantially between the two taxa. Birds and butterflies responded quite similarly to the elevational gradient and to the shift between vegetation belts in terms of species turnover rates. While the mechanisms generating these patterns may differ, the resulting areas of peak turnover in species show correspondence among three different taxa (plants, birds and butterflies).

Landscape connectivity is a key factor determining the viability of populations in fragmented landscapes. Predicting 'functional connectivity', namely whether a patch or a landscape functions as connected from the perspective of a focal species, poses various challenges. First, empirical data on the movement behaviour of species is often scarce. Second, animal-landscape interactions are bound to yield complex patterns. Lastly, functional connectivity involves various components that are rarely assessed separately. We introduce the spatially explicit, individual-based model FunCon as means to distinguish between components of functional connectivity and to assess how each of them affects the sensitivity of species and communities to landscape structures. We then present the results of exploratory simulations over six landscapes of different fragmentation levels and across a range of hypothetical bird species that differ in their response to habitat edges. i) Our results demonstrate that estimations of functional connectivity depend not only on the response of species to edges (avoidance versus penetration into the matrix), the movement mode investigated (home range movements versus dispersal), and the way in which the matrix is being crossed (random walk versus gap crossing), but also on the choice of connectivity measure (in this case, the model output examined). ii) We further show a strong effect of the mortality scenario applied, indicating that movement decisions that do not fully match the mortality risks are likely to reduce connectivity and enhance sensitivity to fragmentation. iii) Despite these complexities, some consistent patterns emerged. For instance, the ranking order of landscapes in terms of functional connectivity was mostly consistent across the entire range of hypothetical species, indicating that simple landscape indices can potentially serve as valuable surrogates for functional connectivity. Yet such simplifications must be carefully evaluated in terms of the components of functional connectivity they actually predict.