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This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series for signal extraction and then reconstructing a less noisy series which is used for forecasting. The SSA-LRF method will be used to forecast h-step ahead. In this study, we use monthly electricity demand in Yogyakarta for 11 year (2008 to 2018). The forecasting results indicates that the forecast using window length of L=26 have good performance with MAPE of 1.9%.

Breast cancer is a type of carcinoma with a high prevalence. The treatment of breast cancer through chemotherapy can cause a risk to healthy cells throughout the body. The neutrophil is one of the cells that is influenced by chemotherapy drugs. Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia is one of the most common toxic effects experienced by patients and often threatens chemotherapy to use efficiency. In this paper, we introduce an interaction model between blood components, i.e., neutrophil, lymphocytes, and albumin, with chemotherapy drugs. The model is important to understand the neutropenia effect due to chemotherapy in mathematical perspective and to calculate breast cancer patients’ survival level. Our model is a four-dimensional system of the first-order ODE with 13-dimensional parameter space. We focus our study for understanding the steady-state conditions and the bifurcations when the parameter values are varied. Here, we also study the role of albumin for reducing the neutropenia effects for breast cancer patients mathematically, where the results can be used as an alternative solution for treating neutropenia in a breast cancer case.

Anuitas hidup adalah suatu rangkaian pembayaran yang dibuat secara kontinu atau dalam interval waktu tertentu (seperti bulanan, kwarter, semester, tahunan, dan lain-lain) yang dipengaruhi oleh faktor kelangsungan hidup seseorang. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengaproksimasi nilai-nilai anuitas hidup. Nilai-nilai tersebut diperoleh dari hasil aproksimasi distribusi waktu hidup yang akan datang (future lifetime). Aproksimasi distribusi waktu hidup yang akan datang tersebut didasarkan atas polinomial Jacobi teralihkan, dimana aproksimasi tersebut menghasilkan suatu bentuk kombinasi eksponensial. Selanjutnya, bentuk tersebut digunakan untuk mengaproksimasi distribusi dari anuitas hidup. Dalam studi kasus, hasil numerik yang diperoleh dalam penelitian ini merupakan hasil aproksimasi distribusi waktu hidup yang akan datang dengan menggunakan hukum Makeham, kemudian hasil tersebut digunakan untuk menentukan nilai-nilai anuitas hidup. Hasil-hasil yang diperoleh dalam studi kasus tersebut sangat akurat.Life annuity is a series of payments made continuously or in certain time intervals (such as monthly, quaternary, semester, annual, etc.). it is influenced by a person's survival. This study aims to aproximate life annuity values. Those values are obtained from the approximation of the later life time distribution (future lifetime). Approximation distribution of later life time is based on polynomial Jacobi sidetracked, where approximation produces a combination of exponential form. Furthermore, the form used to aproximate the distribution of life annuity. In the case study, the numerical results obtained in this study were the result of a life time distribution approximation that would come with using the Makeham law; then the results were used to determine the values of life annuity. The results obtained in the case studies are very accurate.

Michaelis Menten and Emax models are widely used in chemistry, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics areas. D-optimal criteria is criteria with the purpuse to minimize the variance of the estimator of parameters in the model. In this paper will discuss the D-optimal design for Michaelis Menten and Emax models with homoscedastics error assumtion. Determination of D-optimal designs based on Generalied Equivalence Theorem Kiefer-Wolvowitz. We used minimally supported design with the proportion of each design point is uniform, lower bound of design region is design point and the others are interior points. Keywords: D-optimal, Michaelis Menten, Emax, Minimally Supported Design, Homoscedastics

Exponential model is widely used in biology, chemistry, pharmacokinetics and microbiology. D-optimal criteria is criteria with the purpuse to minimize the variance of the estimator of parameters in the model. In this paper will discuss the D-optimal design for the generalized exponential model with homoscedastics errore assumtion. We used minimally supported design with the proportion of each design point is uniform. The optimization is used modified Newton, and the results obtained that the design points are interior points of the design region. Keywords: D-Optimal, Generalized Exponential, Minimally Supported Design, Support Point, Homoscedastics

There are two primary types of models in the literature that attempt to describe default processes for debt obligations and other defaultable financial instruments, usually referred to as structural and reduced-form (or intensity) models. Structural models use the evolution of firms’ structural variables, such as asset and debt values, to determine the time of default. Reduced form models do not consider the relation between default and firm value in an explicit manner. Reduced form models assume that the modeler has the same information set as the market - incomplete knowledge of the firm’s condition. that leads to an inaccessible default time. The key distinction between structural and reduced form models is not whether the default time is predictable or inaccessible, but whether the information set is observed by the market or not. Consequently, for pricing and hedging, reduced form models are the preferred methodology. Credit spreads are used to measure credit premium, which compensates risk-averse investors for assuming credit risk. Therefore, the credit spreads should remain positive. The higher credit risk assumed by the investors, the higher credit premium got be payed by them. In this paper, we have to to determine the credit spreads of reduced-form model. Keywords: Reduced-Form Model, Hazard Rate, Credit Spreads

Pemanfaatan tanaman alpukat pada saat ini baru sebatas pada buahnya. Untuk mewujudkan keinginan masyarakat kembali ke alam dalam rangka meningkatkan derajat kesehatan bangsa, perlu pemanfaatan bagian lain dari tanaman ini. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui daya analgetik ekstrak daun alpukat pada mencit yang diinduksi secara kimia. Penelitian dilakukan dengan metode induksi nyeri secara kimia. Hewan percobaan yang digunakan adalah mencit putih galur Balb/C. Digunakan 3 macam tingkatan dosis ekstrak daun alpukat yaitu 12mg, 25 mg dan 50 mg /20 g BB mencit. Sebagai obat pembanding digunakan aspirin. Daya analgetik dinyatakan kemampuan menekan banyaknya geliatan akibat induksi nyeri secara kimia. Jumlah geliatan secara umum semua perlakuan baik dengan aspirin maupun dengan 3 macam tingkatan dosis ekstrak daun alpukat lebih sedikit dari kontrol negatif. Pada dosis 50 mg/20 g BB ekstrak daun alpukat mempunyai jumlah geliatan paling sedikit dibandingkan terhadap semua perlakuan . Pada dosis 50 mg/ 20 g BB jumlah geliatan masih lebih sedikit dibandingkan aspirin pada menit ke 20 dan 25. Ekstrak daun alpukat pada dosis 25 mg, dan 50 mg /20 g BB mempunyai daya analgetik akibat induksi nyeri secara kimia

Daun kemuning adalah salah satu bahan tanaman yang sering digunakan untuk pengobatan penyakit infeksi di masyarakat. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui profil kromatogram dan aktivitas ekstrak etanol daun kemuning terhadap Escherichia coli. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian deskripsi dan ekperimental. Ekstrak daun kemuning diperoleh dengan cara maserasi dengan pelarut etanol 40 % . Untuk mengetahui profil kromatogram dilakukan dengan cara pemisahan secara kromatografi lapis tipis dan akvitas terhadap Escherichia coli dilakukan dengan metoda pengenceran yang dilanjutkan penanaman pada media agar Mac Conkey. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa, profil kromatogram ekstrak etanol daun kemuning didapatkan 6 bercak di bawah sinar UV panjang gelombang 254 nm dengan warna biru gelap, biru, ungu, ungu jingga, hijau dan coklat. Aktivitas ekstrak etanol daun kemuning terhadap Escherichia coli pada analisis uji Tukey menunjukan daya hambat pada konsentrasi 30 % dan daya bunuh pada konsentrasi 40 %. Diperkirakan terdapat 6 komponen senyawa dalam ekstrak etanol daun kemuning yang meliputi golongan alkohol, keton , terpenoid, steroid, asam organik dan minyak atisiri yang bertanggung jawab terhadap aktivitas Escherichia coli dengan nilai KHM 30 % dan KBM 40 %Kata kunci : Daun kemuning ( Muraya paniculata (L) Jack) profil kromatogram, aktivitas terhadap Escherichia coli

Breast cancer is a type of carcinoma with a high prevalence. The treatment of breast cancer through chemotherapy can cause a risk to healthy cells throughout the body. The neutrophil is one of the cells that is influenced by chemotherapy drugs. Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia is one of the most common toxic effects experienced by patients and often threatens chemotherapy to use efficiency. In this paper, we introduce an interaction model between blood components, i.e., neutrophil, lymphocytes, and albumin, with chemotherapy drugs. The model is important to understand the neutropenia effect due to chemotherapy in mathematical perspective and to calculate breast cancer patients' survival level. Our model is a four-dimensional system of the first-order ODE with 13-dimensional parameter space. We focus our study for understanding the steady-state conditions and the bifurcations when the parameter values are varied. Here, we also study the role of albumin for reducing the neutropenia effects for breast cancer patients mathematically, where the results can be used as an alternative solution for treating neutropenia in a breast cancer case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]