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Abstract Background Larval Source Management (LSM) is an important tool for malaria vector control and is recommended by WHO as a supplementary vector control measure. LSM has contributed in many successful attempts to eliminate the disease across the Globe. However, this approach is typically labour-intensive, largely due to the difficulties in locating and mapping potential malarial mosquito breeding sites. Previous studies have demonstrated the potential for drone imaging technology to map malaria vector breeding sites. However, key questions remain unanswered related to the use and cost of this technology within operational vector control. Methods Using Zanzibar (United Republic of Tanzania) as a demonstration site, a protocol was collaboratively designed that employs drones and smartphones for supporting operational LSM, termed the Spatial Intelligence System (SIS). SIS was evaluated over a four-month LSM programme by comparing key mapping accuracy indicators and relative costs (both mapping costs and intervention costs) against conventional ground-based methods. Additionally, malaria case incidence was compared between the SIS and conventional study areas, including an estimation of the incremental cost-effectiveness of switching from conventional to SIS larviciding. Results The results demonstrate that the SIS approach is significantly more accurate than a conventional approach for mapping potential breeding sites: mean % correct per site: SIS = 60% (95% CI 32–88%, p = 0.02), conventional = 18% (95% CI − 3–39%). Whilst SIS cost more in the start-up phase, overall annualized costs were similar to the conventional approach, with a simulated cost per person protected per year of $3.69 ($0.32 to $15.12) for conventional and $3.94 ($0.342 to $16.27) for SIS larviciding. The main economic benefits were reduced labour costs associated with SIS in the pre-intervention baseline mapping of habitats. There was no difference in malaria case incidence between the three arms. Cost effectiveness analysis showed that SIS is likely to provide similar health benefits at similar costs compared to the conventional arm. Conclusions The use of drones and smartphones provides an improved means of mapping breeding sites for use in operational LSM. Furthermore, deploying this technology does not appear to be more costly than a conventional ground-based approach and, as such, may represent an important tool for Malaria Control Programmes that plan to implement LSM.

The ability to accurately map tropical wetland dynamics can significantly contribute to a number of areas, including food and water security, protection and enhancement of ecosystems, flood hazard management, and our understanding of natural greenhouse gas emissions. Yet currently, there is not a tractable solution for mapping tropical forested wetlands at high spatial and temporal resolutions at a regional scale. This means that we lack accurate and up-to-date information about some of the world’s most significant wetlands, including the Amazon Basin. RadWet-L is an automated machine-learning classification technique for the mapping of both inundated forests and open water using ALOS ScanSAR data. We applied and validated RadWet-L for the Amazon Basin. The proposed method is computationally light and transferable across the range of landscape types in the Amazon Basin allowing, for the first time, regional inundation maps to be produced every 42 days at 50 m resolution over the period 2019–2023. Time series estimates of inundation extent from RadWet-L were significantly correlated with NASA-GFZ GRACE-FO water thickness (Pearson’s r = 0.96, p < 0.01), USDA G-REALM lake hight (Pearson’s r between 0.63 and 0.91, p < 0.01), and in situ river stage measurements (Pearson’s r between 0.78 and 0.94, p < 0.01). Additionally, we conducted an evaluation of 11,162 points against the input ScanSAR data revealing spatial and temporal consistency in the approach (F1 score = 0.97). Serial classifications of ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 ScanSAR data by RadWet-L can provide unique insights into the spatio-temporal inundation dynamics within the Amazon Basin. Understanding these dynamics can inform policy in the sustainable use of these wetlands, as well as the impacts of inundation dynamics on biodiversity and greenhouse gas budgets.

Mapping the spatial and temporal dynamics of tropical herbaceous wetlands is vital for a wide range of applications. Inundated vegetation can account for over three-quarters of the total inundated area, yet widely used EO mapping approaches are limited to the detection of open water bodies. This paper presents a new wetland mapping approach, RadWet, that automatically defines open water and inundated vegetation training data using a novel mixture of radar, terrain, and optical imagery. Training data samples are then used to classify serial Sentinel-1 radar imagery using an ensemble machine learning classification routine, providing information on the spatial and temporal dynamics of inundation every 12 days at a resolution of 30 m. The approach was evaluated over the period 2017–2022, covering a range of conditions (dry season to wet season) for two sites: (1) the Barotseland Floodplain, Zambia (31,172 km2) and (2) the Upper Rupununi Wetlands in Guyana (11,745 km2). Good agreement was found at both sites using random stratified accuracy assessment data (n = 28,223) with a median overall accuracy of 89% in Barotseland and 80% in the Upper Rupununi, outperforming existing approaches. The results revealed fine-scale hydrological processes driving inundation patterns as well as temporal patterns in seasonal flood pulse timing and magnitude. Inundated vegetation dominated wet season wetland extent, accounting for a mean 80% of total inundation. RadWet offers a new way in which tropical wetlands can be routinely monitored and characterised. This can provide significant benefits for a range of application areas, including flood hazard management, wetland inventories, monitoring natural greenhouse gas emissions and disease vector control.

Recent work has highlighted the large role of methane emissions from the Sudd wetland and surrounding ecosystems on the global atmospheric growth rate of methane since 2010. These emissions are driven by high rainfall over basin catchments linked with the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole. We reconstruct flood inundation for the Sudd wetland over a 38-year period at a spatial resolution of 30 m using a new satellite Earth Observation (EO) wetland mapping tool. We reveal considerable changes in the wet season extent of the wetland, including an increase >300% since 2019 compared to the median 1984–2022 extent. We report major increases in flood extent within grassland-dominated floodplains outside of the area currently defined Sudd wetland region. These year-to-year changes in wetland extent are corroborated with total water storage anomalies inferred from satellite data (Pearson correlation R = 0.92), Lake Victoria levels ( R = 0.73), and anomalies in reported annual mean global methane growth rates since 2009 ( R = 0.88). Our analysis shows that flood water inundation is dominated by inundated vegetation and aquatic vegetation, accounting for an average of 40% and 50% of total extent, respectively, compared to open water that accounted for just 9% of inundation in a typical year. This is consistent with recent studies that report wetland methane emissions are focused on areas with inundated vegetation. Our findings also support recent studies that highlight the significant role of the Sudd wetland in driving anomalously large global atmospheric annual growth rates, 2020–2022. By capturing high resolution information on inundated vegetation, our EO wetland mapping tool has significant potential for improved wetland emission estimates of methane. Vascular plants common in the Sudd wetland, e.g. macrophytes including Phragmites Australis and Cyperus Papyrus , seem to play a key role in methane emissions and we recommend they should be the focus of future research.

Drones have the potential to revolutionize malaria vector control initiatives through rapid and accurate mapping of potential malarial mosquito larval habitats to help direct field Larval Source Management (LSM) efforts. However, there are no clear recommendations on how these habitats can be extracted from drone imagery in an operational context. This paper compares the results of two mapping approaches: supervised image classification using machine learning and Technology-Assisted Digitising (TAD) mapping that employs a new region growing tool suitable for non-experts. These approaches were applied concurrently to drone imagery acquired at seven sites in Zanzibar, United Republic of Tanzania. Whilst the two approaches were similar in processing time, the TAD approach significantly outperformed the supervised classification approach at all sites (t = 5.1, p < 0.01). Overall accuracy scores (mean overall accuracy 62%) suggest that a supervised classification approach is unsuitable for mapping potential malarial mosquito larval habitats in Zanzibar, whereas the TAD approach offers a simple and accurate (mean overall accuracy 96%) means of mapping these complex features. We recommend that this approach be used alongside targeted ground-based surveying (i.e., in areas inappropriate for drone surveying) for generating precise and accurate spatial intelligence to support operational LSM programmes.

Knowledge of the location and extent of surface water and inundated vegetation is vital for a range of applications including flood risk management, biodiversity monitoring, quantifying greenhouse gas emissions, and mapping water-borne disease risk. Here, we present a new tool, TropWet, which enables users of all abilities to map wetlands in herbaceous dominated regions based on simple unmixing of optical Landsat satellite imagery in the Google Earth Engine. The results demonstrate transferability throughout the African continent with a high degree of accuracy (mean 91% accuracy, st. dev 2.6%, n = 10,800). TropWet demonstrated considerable improvements over existing globally available surface water datasets for mapping the extent of important wetlands like the Okavango, Botswana. TropWet was able to provide frequency inundation maps as an indicator of malarial mosquito aquatic habitat extent and persistence in Barotseland, Zambia. TropWet was able to map flood extent comparable to operational flood risk mapping products in the Zambezi Region, Namibia. Finally, TropWet was able to quantify the effects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the extent of photosynthetic vegetation and wetland extent across Southern Africa. These examples demonstrate the potential for TropWet to provide policy makers with crucial information to help make national, regional, or continental scale decisions regarding wetland conservation, flood/disease hazard mapping, or mitigation against the impacts of ENSO.

While there has been considerable recent criticism of perdurance theory in connection with a Humean understanding of causality, perdurance theory conjoined with causal realism has received relatively little attention. One might, then, form the impression that perdurance theory under the auspices of causal realism is a relatively safe view. I shall argue, however, to the contrary. My general strategy is to show that there is no plausible way of spelling out the perdurance position (of the non-Humean, causal realist sort). I implement this strategy by revealing several general problems concerning the causally-connected temporal parts scheme. I begin with a short account of perdurance theory. There follows a description of two general views of causality and the two subsequent accounts of the perduring object; then, the criticism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]