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A published predictor model in a single-site cohort study (questionable dementia, QD) that contained episodic verbal memory (SRT total recall), informant report of function (FAQ), and MRI measures was tested using logistic regression and ROC analyses with comparable measures in a second multisite cohort study (Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, ADNI). There were 126 patients in QD and 282 patients in ADNI with MCI followed for 3 years. Within each sample, the differences in AUCs between the statistical models were very similar. Adding hippocampal and entorhinal cortex volumes to the model containing AVLT/SRT, FAQ, age and MMSE increased the area under the curve (AUC) in ADNI but not QD, with sensitivity increasing by 2% in ADNI and 2% in QD for a fixed specificity of 80%. Conversely, adding episodic verbal memory (SRT/AVLT) and FAQ to the model containing age, Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE), hippocampal and entorhinal cortex volumes increased the AUC in ADNI and QD, with sensitivity increasing by 17% in ADNI and 10% in QD for 80% specificity. The predictor models showed similar differences from each other in both studies, supporting independent validation. MRI hippocampal and entorhinal cortex volumes showed limited added predictive utility to memory and function measures.

Objective: We evaluated the efficacy and side effects of the selective serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor antidepressant duloxetine in older adults with dysthymic disorder. Methods: Patients ≥ 60 years old with dysthymic disorder received flexible dose duloxetine 20–120 mg daily in an open-label 12-week trial. The main outcomes were change from baseline to 12 weeks in 24-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale scores and Treatment Emergent Symptoms Scale scores. Response required ≥ 50% decline in Hamilton Depression Rating Scale scores with a Clinical Global Impression of much improved or better, and remission required final Hamilton Depression Rating Scale ≤ 6. Intent-to-treat analyses were conducted with the last observation carried forward. Results: In 30 patients, the mean age was 70.7 (standard deviation (SD) = 7.6) years and 56.7% were female. In intent-to-treat analyses, there were 16 responders (53.3%) and 10 remitters (33.3%). Of these, 19 patients completed the trial. The mean maximum dose was 76.3 mg (SD = 38.5) in the total sample and 101 mg (SD = 17.9) in completers. In the total sample, the mean final dose was 51 mg (SD = 27.2) and correlated significantly with decline in Hamilton Depression Rating Scale ( p < .03); decline in Hamilton Depression Rating Scale correlated significantly with decline in Treatment Emergent Symptoms Scale ( p < .001). Daily doses above 60 mg were associated with greater improvement and well tolerated. This result was partly confounded by early dropouts having received low doses. Demographic and medical comorbidities, including cardiac disease and hypertension, were not related to response. Somatic side effects were common prior to duloxetine treatment and improved rather than worsened with duloxetine. There were no serious adverse events. Conclusion: Duloxetine at relatively high doses showed moderate efficacy in elderly patients with dysthymic disorder and was well tolerated in successful completers. Reduced somatic symptoms were associated with improvement in depressive symptoms. A systematic placebo-controlled trial of duloxetine in older patients with dysthymic disorder may be warranted.

IntroductionAfter infection, herpes simplex virus-1 (HSV1) becomes latent in the trigeminal ganglion and can enter the brain via retrograde axonal transport. Recurrent reactivation of HSV1 may lead to neurodegeneration and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathology. HSV1 (oral herpes) and HSV2 (genital herpes) can trigger amyloid beta-protein (Aβ) aggregation and HSV1 DNA is common in amyloid plaques. Anti-HSV drugs reduce Aβ and phosphorylated tau accumulation in cell-culture models. Cognitive impairment is greater in patients with HSV seropositive, and antiviral drugs show robust efficacy against peripheral HSV infection. Recent studies of electronic health records databases demonstrate that HSV infections increase dementia risk, and that antiviral medication treatment reduces this risk. The generic antiviral drug valacyclovir was superior to placebo in improving memory in a schizophrenia pilot trial but has not been tested in AD.Methods and analysisIn patients with mild AD who test positive for HSV1 or HSV2 serum antibodies, valacyclovir, repurposed as an anti-AD drug, will be compared with placebo (lactose pills) in 130 patients (65 valacyclovir and 65 placebo) in a randomised, double-blind, 78-week phase II proof-of-concept trial. Patients on valacyclovir, dose-titrated from 2 g to a targeted oral dose of 4 g daily, compared with placebo, are hypothesised to show smaller cognitive and functional decline, and, using 18F-Florbetapir positron emission tomography (PET) and 18F-MK-6240 PET imaging, to show less amyloid and tau accumulation, respectively. In the lumbar puncture subsample, cerebrospinal fluid acyclovir will be assayed to assess central nervous system valacyclovir penetration.Ethics and disseminationThe trial is being overseen by the New York State Psychiatric Institute Institutional Review Board (protocol 7537), the National Institute on Ageing, and the Data Safety Monitoring Board. Written informed consent is obtained for all subjects. Results will be disseminated via publication, clinicaltrials.gov, media and conferences.Trial registration numberClinicalTrials.gov identifier (NCT03282916) Pre-results.