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In Kenya, influenza virus circulates year-round, raising questions about optimum strategies for vaccination. Given national interest in introducing influenza vaccination for young children 6–23 months of age, we modeled total influenza-associated illnesses (inclusive of hospitalizations, outpatient illnesses, and non‒medically attended illnesses) averted by multiple potential vaccination strategies: year-round versus seasonal-campaign vaccination, and vaccination starting in April (Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine availability) versus October (Northern Hemisphere availability). We modeled average vaccine effectiveness of 50% and annual vaccination coverage of 60%. In the introduction year, year-round vaccination averted 6,410 total illnesses when introduced in October and 7,202 illnesses when introduced in April, whereas seasonal-campaign vaccination averted 10,236 (October) to 11,612 (April) illnesses. In the year after introduction, both strategies averted comparable numbers of illnesses (10,831–10,868 for year-round, 10,175–11,282 for campaign). Campaign-style vaccination would likely have a greater effect during initial pediatric influenza vaccine introduction in Kenya; however, either strategy could achieve similar longer-term effects.

Understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection in populations at increased risk for poor health is critical to reducing disease. We describe the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Kakuma Refugee Camp Complex, Kenya. We performed descriptive analyses of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the camp and surrounding community during March 16, 2020‒December 31, 2021. We identified cases in accordance with national guidelines.We estimated fatality ratios and attack rates over time using locally weighted scatterplot smoothing for refugees, host community members, and national population. Of the 18,864 SARS-CoV-2 tests performed, 1,024 were positive, collected from 664 refugees and 360 host community members. Attack rates were 325.0/100,000 population (CFR 2.9%) for refugees,150.2/100,000 population (CFR 1.11%) for community, and 628.8/100,000 population (CFR 1.83%) nationwide. During 2020–2021, refugees experienced a lower attack rate but higher CFR than the national population, underscoring the need to prioritize SARS-CoV-2 mitigation measures, including vaccination.

Background: Influenza is a significant contributor to acute respiratory infections (ARI), and children

Abstract Influenza viruses undergo rapid evolutionary changes, which requires continuous surveillance to monitor for genetic and potential antigenic changes in circulating viruses that can guide control and prevention decision making. We sequenced and phylogenetically analyzed A(H1N1)pdm09 virus genome sequences obtained from specimens collected from hospitalized patients of all ages with or without pneumonia between 2009 and 2018 from seven sentinel surveillance sites across Kenya. We compared these sequences with recommended vaccine strains during the study period to infer genetic and potential antigenic changes in circulating viruses and associations of clinical outcome. We generated and analyzed a total of 383 A(H1N1)pdm09 virus genome sequences. Phylogenetic analyses of HA protein revealed that multiple genetic groups (clades, subclades, and subgroups) of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus circulated in Kenya over the study period; these evolved away from their vaccine strain, forming clades 7 and 6, subclades 6C, 6B, and 6B.1, and subgroups 6B.1A and 6B.1A1 through acquisition of additional substitutions. Several amino acid substitutions among circulating viruses were associated with continued evolution of the viruses, especially in antigenic epitopes and receptor binding sites (RBS) of circulating viruses. Disease severity declined with an increase in age among children aged

Following the detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus in countries bordering Kenya to the west, we conducted surveillance among domestic and wild birds along the shores of Lake Victoria. In addition, between 2018 and 2020, we conducted surveillance among poultry and poultry workers in live bird markets and among wild migratory birds in various lakes that are resting sites during migration to assess introduction and circulation of avian influenza viruses in these populations. We tested 7464 specimens (oropharyngeal (OP) and cloacal specimens) from poultry and 6531 fresh fecal specimens from wild birds for influenza A viruses by real-time RT-PCR. Influenza was detected in 3.9% (n = 292) of specimens collected from poultry and 0.2% (n = 10) of fecal specimens from wild birds. On hemagglutinin subtyping, most of the influenza A positives from poultry (274/292, 93.8%) were H9. Of 34 H9 specimens randomly selected for further subtyping, all were H9N2. On phylogenetic analysis, these viruses were genetically similar to other H9 viruses detected in East Africa. Only two of the ten influenza A-positive specimens from the wild bird fecal specimens were successfully subtyped; sequencing analysis of one specimen collected in 2018 was identified as a low-pathogenicity avian influenza H5N2 virus of the Eurasian lineage, and the second specimen, collected in 2020, was subtyped as H11. A total of 18 OP and nasal specimens from poultry workers with acute respiratory illness (12%) were collected; none were positive for influenza A virus. We observed significant circulation of H9N2 influenza viruses in poultry in live bird markets in Kenya. During the same period, low-pathogenic H5N2 virus was detected in a fecal specimen collected in a site hosting a variety of migratory and resident birds. Although HPAI H5N8 was not detected in this survey, these results highlight the potential for the introduction and establishment of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in poultry populations and the associated risk of spillover to human populations.

Abstract Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is among the leading childhood causes of viral pneumonia worldwide. Establishing RSV-associated morbidity and mortality is important in informing the development, delivery strategies, and evaluation of interventions. Methods Using data collected during 2010–2018 from base regions (population-based surveillance studies in western Kenya and the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance Study), we estimated age-specific rates of acute respiratory illness (ARI), severe acute respiratory illness (SARI—defined as hospitalization with cough or difficulty breathing with onset within the past 10 days), and SARI-associated deaths. We extrapolated the rates from the base regions to other regions of Kenya, while adjusting for risk factors of ARI and healthcare seeking behavior, and finally applied the proportions of RSV-positive cases identified from various sentinel and study facilities to the rates to obtain regional age-specific rates of RSV-associated outpatient and non-medically attended ARI and hospitalized SARI and severe ARI that was not hospitalized (non-hospitalized SARI). We applied age-specific RSV case fatality ratios to SARI to obtain estimates of RSV-associated in- and out-of-hospital deaths. Results Among Kenyan children aged

Abstract Background Understanding healthcare-seeking patterns for respiratory illness can help improve estimation of disease burden and target public health interventions to control acute respiratory disease in Kenya. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey to determine healthcare utilization patterns for acute respiratory illness (ARI) and severe pneumonia in four diverse counties representing urban, peri-urban, rural mixed farmers, and rural pastoralist communities in Kenya using a two-stage (sub-locations then households) cluster sampling procedure. Healthcare seeking behavior for ARI episodes in the last 14 days, and severe pneumonia in the last 12 months was evaluated. Severe pneumonia was defined as reported cough and difficulty breathing for > 2 days and report of hospitalization or recommendation for hospitalization, or a danger sign (unable to breastfeed/drink, vomiting everything, convulsions, unconscious) for children

A network of global respiratory disease surveillance systems and partnerships has been built over decades as a direct response to the persistent threat of seasonal, zoonotic, and pandemic influenza. These efforts have been spearheaded by the World Health Organization, country ministries of health, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, nongovernmental organizations, academic groups, and others. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention worked closely with ministries of health in partner countries and the World Health Organization to leverage influenza surveillance systems and programs to respond to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Countries used existing surveillance systems for severe acute respiratory infection and influenza-like illness, respiratory virus laboratory resources, pandemic influenza preparedness plans, and ongoing population-based influenza studies to track, study, and respond to SARS-CoV-2 infections. The incorporation of COVID-19 surveillance into existing influenza sentinel surveillance systems can support continued global surveillance for respiratory viruses with pandemic potential.

Kenya’s Ministry of Health (MOH) and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Kenya (CDC Kenya) have maintained a 40-year partnership during which measures were implemented to prevent, detect, and respond to disease threats. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the MOH and CDC Kenya rapidly responded to mitigate disease impact on Kenya’s 52 million residents. We describe activities undertaken jointly by the MOH and CDC Kenya that lessened the effects of COVID-19 during 5 epidemic waves from March through December 2021. Activities included establishing national and county-level emergency operations centers and implementing workforce development and deployment, infection prevention and control training, laboratory diagnostic advancement, enhanced surveillance, and information management. The COVID-19 pandemic provided fresh impetus for the government of Kenya to establish a national public health institute, launched in January 2022, to consolidate its public health activities and counter COVID-19 and future infectious, vaccine-preventable, and emerging zoonotic diseases.

Background Accurate and timely diagnosis is essential in limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The reference standard, rRT-PCR, requires specialized laboratories, costly reagents, and a long turnaround time. Antigen RDTs provide a feasible alternative to rRT-PCR since they are quick, relatively inexpensive, and do not require a laboratory. The WHO requires that Ag RDTs have a sensitivity ≥80% and specificity ≥97%. Methods This evaluation was conducted at 11 health facilities in Kenya between March and July 2021. We enrolled persons of any age with respiratory symptoms and asymptomatic contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases. We collected demographic and clinical information and two nasopharyngeal specimens from each participant for Ag RDT testing and rRT-PCR. We calculated the diagnostic performance of the Panbio™ Ag RDT against the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) rRT-PCR test. Results We evaluated the Ag RDT in 2,245 individuals where 551 (24.5%, 95% CI: 22.8–26.3%) tested positive by rRT-PCR. Overall sensitivity of the Ag RDT was 46.6% (95% CI: 42.4–50.9%), specificity 98.5% (95% CI: 97.8–99.0%), PPV 90.8% (95% CI: 86.8–93.9%) and NPV 85.0% (95% CI: 83.4–86.6%). Among symptomatic individuals, sensitivity was 60.6% (95% CI: 54.3–66.7%) and specificity was 98.1% (95% CI: 96.7–99.0%). Among asymptomatic individuals, sensitivity was 34.7% (95% CI 29.3–40.4%) and specificity was 98.7% (95% CI: 97.8–99.3%). In persons with onset of symptoms 7 days (157/876, 17.9%). The highest sensitivity was 87.0% (95% CI: 80.9–91.8%) in symptomatic individuals with cycle threshold (Ct) values ≤30. Conclusion The overall sensitivity and NPV of the Panbio™ Ag RDT were much lower than expected. The specificity of the Ag RDT was high and satisfactory; therefore, a positive result may not require confirmation by rRT-PCR. The kit may be useful as a rapid screening tool only for symptomatic patients in high-risk settings with limited access to rRT-PCR. A negative result should be interpreted based on clinical and epidemiological information and may require retesting by rRT-PCR.

Abstract Background There is substantial burden of seasonal influenza in Kenya, which led the government to consider introducing a national influenza vaccination programme. Given the cost implications of a nationwide programme, local economic evaluation data are needed to inform policy on the design and benefits of influenza vaccination. We set out to estimate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in Kenya. Methods We fitted an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to active surveillance data from patients with influenza from 2010 to 2018. Using a societal perspective, we developed a decision tree cost-effectiveness model and estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for three vaccine target groups: children 6–23 months (strategy I), 2–5 years (strategy II) and 6–14 years (strategy III) with either the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine (Strategy A) or Northern Hemisphere vaccine (Strategy B) or both (Strategy C: twice yearly vaccination campaigns, or Strategy D: year-round vaccination campaigns). We assessed cost-effectiveness by calculating incremental net monetary benefits (INMB) using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 1–51% of the annual gross domestic product per capita ($17–$872). Results The mean number of infections across all ages was 2–15 million per year. When vaccination was well timed to influenza activity, the annual mean ICER per DALY averted for vaccinating children 6–23 months ranged between $749 and $1385 for strategy IA, $442 and $1877 for strategy IB, $678 and $4106 for strategy IC and $1147 and $7933 for strategy ID. For children 2–5 years, it ranged between $945 and $1573 for strategy IIA, $563 and $1869 for strategy IIB, $662 and $4085 for strategy IIC, and $1169 and $7897 for strategy IID. For children 6–14 years, it ranged between $923 and $3116 for strategy IIIA, $1005 and $2223 for strategy IIIB, $883 and $4727 for strategy IIIC and $1467 and $6813 for strategy IIID. Overall, no vaccination strategy was cost-effective at the minimum ($17) and median ($445) WTP thresholds. Vaccinating children 6–23 months once a year had the highest mean INMB value at $872 (WTP threshold upper limit); however, this strategy had very low probability of the highest net benefit. Conclusion Vaccinating children 6–23 months once a year was the most favourable vaccination option; however, the strategy is unlikely to be cost-effective given the current WTP thresholds.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) among infants under 6 months of age. Yet, in Kenya, little is known about healthcare workers’ (HCWs) knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions around RSV disease and the prevention products under development. Between September and October 2021, we conducted a mixed methods cross-sectional survey to assess HCWs’ knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of RSV disease and RSV vaccinations in two counties. We enrolled HCWs delivering services directly at maternal and child health (MCH) departments in selected health facilities (frontline HCWs) and health management officers (HMOs). Of the 106 respondents, 94 (88.7%) were frontline HCWs, while 12 were HMOs. Two of the HMOs were members of the Kenya National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (KENITAG). Of the 104 non-KENITAG HCWs, only 41 (39.4%) had heard about RSV disease, and 38/41 (92.7%) felt that pregnant women should be vaccinated against RSV. Most participants would recommend a single-dose vaccine schedule (n = 62, 58.5%) for maximal adherence and compliance (n = 38/62, 61.3%), single dose/device vaccines (n = 50/86, 58.1%) to prevent wastage and contamination, and maternal vaccination through antenatal care clinics (n = 53, 50%). We found the need for increased knowledge about RSV disease and prevention among Kenyan HCWs.

We determined incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and influenza virus infections among pregnant and postpartum women and their infants in Kenya during 2020–2021. Incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was highest among pregnant women, followed by postpartum women and infants. No influenza virus infections were identified.

Abstract Background We estimated the cost-per-episode and the annual economic burden associated with influenza in Kenya. Methods From July 2013–August 2014, we recruited patients with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) or influenza-like illness (ILI) associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza from 5 health facilities. A structured questionnaire was used to collect direct costs (medications, laboratory investigations, hospital bed fees, hospital management costs, transportation) and indirect costs (productivity losses) associated with an episode of influenza. We used published incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza associated with SARI and ILI, and the national population census data from 2014, to estimate the annual national number of influenza-associated hospitalizations and outpatient visits and calculated the annual economic burden by multiplying cases by the mean cost. Results We enrolled 275 patients (105 inpatients and 170 outpatients). The mean cost-per-episode of influenza was US$117.86 (standard deviation [SD], 88.04) among inpatients; US$114.25 (SD, 90.03) for children

Abstract Background Influenza disease burden varies by age and this has important public health implications. We compared the proportional distribution of different influenza virus types within age strata using surveillance data from twenty-nine countries during 1999-2014 (N=358,796 influenza cases). Methods For each virus, we calculated a Relative Illness Ratio (defined as the ratio of the percentage of cases in an age group to the percentage of the country population in the same age group) for young children (0-4 years), older children (5-17 years), young adults (18-39 years), older adults (40-64 years), and the elderly (65+ years). We used random-effects meta-analysis models to obtain summary relative illness ratios (sRIRs), and conducted meta-regression and sub-group analyses to explore causes of between-estimates heterogeneity. Results The influenza virus with highest sRIR was A(H1N1) for young children, B for older children, A(H1N1)pdm2009 for adults, and (A(H3N2) for the elderly. As expected, considering the diverse nature of the national surveillance datasets included in our analysis, between-estimates heterogeneity was high (I2>90%) for most sRIRs. The variations of countries’ geographic, demographic and economic characteristics and the proportion of outpatients among reported influenza cases explained only part of the heterogeneity, suggesting that multiple factors were at play. Conclusions These results highlight the importance of presenting burden of disease estimates by age group and virus (sub)type.

Abstract Background Respiratory diseases cause substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide, with sub-Saharan Africa bearing the greatest burden. Identifying etiologies of respiratory disease is important to inform cost effective treatment, prevention and control strategies. Testing for all of the different pathogens that are potentially associated with respiratory illnesses is challenging. We piloted the use of a multi-pathogen respiratory Taqman Array Cards (TAC) to identify pathogens in respiratory samples collected from non-fatal and fatal cases and their matched asymptomatic controls. Methods This is a case control study comparing viral and bacterial pathogens detected among non-fatal and fatal cases to those detected among age and time matched asymptomatic controls. We used McNemar’s test to compare proportions of pathogens detected among cases (non-fatal and fatal) to their matched asymptomatic controls. We used Mann-Whitney test to compare the distribution of median Cycle threshold (Ct) values among non-fatal and fatal cases to their corresponding asymptomatic controls. Results There were 72 fatal and 72 non-fatal cases matched to 72 controls. We identified at least one pathogen in 109/144 (76%) cases and 59/72 (82%) controls. For most pathogens, the median Ct values were lower among cases (fatal and non-fatal) compared to asymptomatic controls. Conclusions Similar rates of pathogen detection among cases and controls make interpretation of results challenging. Ct-values might be helpful in interpreting clinical relevance of detected pathogens using multi-pathogen diagnostic tools.

Background: Clinical autopsies are not often part of routine care, despite their role in clarifying cause of death. In fact, autopsy rates across the world have declined and are especially low in sub-Saharan Africa. Objectives: We set out to identify factors associated with acceptance of pediatric autopsies among parents of deceased children less than five years old, and examined local preferences for minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) procedures during post-mortem (PM) examinations. Methods: From December 2016 to September 2017, we contacted 113 parents/next of kin who had been previously approached to consent to a PM examination of their deceased child as part of a Kenyan study on cause of death. Interviews occurred up to three years after the death of their child. Findings: Seventy-three percent (83/113) of eligible study participants were enrolled, of whom 62/83 (75%) had previously consented to PM examination of their child. Those who previously consented to PM had higher levels of education, were more likely employed, and had more knowledge about certain aspects of autopsies than non-consenters. The majority (97%) of PM consenters did so because they wanted to know the cause of death of their child, and up to a third believed autopsy studies helped advance medical knowledge. Reasons for non-consent to PM examination included: parents felt there was no need for further examination (29%) or they were satisfied with the clinical diagnosis (24%). Overall, only 40% of study participants would have preferred MITS procedures to conventional autopsy. However, 81% of autopsy non-consenters would have accepted PM examination if it only involved MITS techniques. Conclusion: There is potential to increase autopsy rates by strengthening reasons for acceptance and addressing modifiable reasons for refusals. Although MITS procedures have the potential to improve autopsy acceptance rates, they were not significantly preferred over conventional autopsies in our study population.

The spatiotemporal patterns of spread of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses on a countrywide scale are unclear in many tropical/subtropical regions mainly because spatiotemporally representative sequence data are lacking. We isolated, sequenced, and analyzed 383 A(H1N1)pdm09 viral genomes from hospitalized patients between 2009 and 2018 from seven locations across Kenya. Using these genomes and contemporaneously sampled global sequences, we characterized the spread of the virus in Kenya over several seasons using phylodynamic methods. The transmission dynamics of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in Kenya were characterized by (i) multiple virus introductions into Kenya over the study period, although only a few of those introductions instigated local seasonal epidemics that then established local transmission clusters, (ii) persistence of transmission clusters over several epidemic seasons across the country, (iii) seasonal fluctuations in effective reproduction number (Re) associated with lower number of infections and seasonal fluctuations in relative genetic diversity after an initial rapid increase during the early pandemic phase, which broadly corresponded to epidemic peaks in the northern and southern hemispheres, (iv) high virus genetic diversity with greater frequency of seasonal fluctuations in 2009–2011 and 2018 and low virus genetic diversity with relatively weaker seasonal fluctuations in 2012–2017, and (v) virus spread across Kenya. Considerable influenza virus diversity circulated within Kenya, including persistent viral lineages that were unique to the country, which may have been capable of dissemination to other continents through a globally migrating virus population. Further knowledge of the viral lineages that circulate within understudied low-to-middle-income tropical and subtropical regions is required to understand the full diversity and global ecology of influenza viruses in humans and to inform vaccination strategies within these regions.

Investigating acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) is difficult due to non-specific symptoms, varied health-seeking behaviors, and resource limitations; yet early detection is critical to global health security. Kenya's Ministry of Health (MOH) uses the Integrated Disease Surveillance strategy for public health surveillance, incorporating event-based surveillance (EBS) and indicator-based surveillance (IBS) for early warning system. MOH, supported by the US-CDC, established Influenza Sentinel Surveillance (ISS) in 2006 and later launched community EBS (CEBS) and health facility EBS (HEBS) pilots to enhance surveillance for COVID-19. On March 2, 2021, the CEBS system detected a signal of “Two or more people presenting with similar signs and symptoms in a community within a week” in a county. Investigations launched on March 4, 2021, investigations revealed unreported ARI cases which had been missed by both the ISS and IBS. A total of 176 ARI cases were line-listed with 91/176 (51.7%) aged

BackgroundLittle is known about the cocirculation of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses during the COVID-19 pandemic and the use of respiratory disease sentinel surveillance platforms for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 activity in sub-Saharan Africa. ObjectiveWe aimed to describe influenza and SARS-CoV-2 cocirculation in Kenya and how the SARS-CoV-2 data from influenza sentinel surveillance correlated with that of universal national surveillance. MethodsFrom April 2020 to March 2022, we enrolled 7349 patients with severe acute respiratory illness or influenza-like illness at 8 sentinel influenza surveillance sites in Kenya and collected demographic, clinical, underlying medical condition, vaccination, and exposure information, as well as respiratory specimens, from them. Respiratory specimens were tested for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. The universal national-level SARS-CoV-2 data were also obtained from the Kenya Ministry of Health. The universal national-level SARS-CoV-2 data were collected from all health facilities nationally, border entry points, and contact tracing in Kenya. Epidemic curves and Pearson r were used to describe the correlation between SARS-CoV-2 positivity in data from the 8 influenza sentinel sites in Kenya and that of the universal national SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data. A logistic regression model was used to assess the association between influenza and SARS-CoV-2 coinfection with severe clinical illness. We defined severe clinical illness as any of oxygen saturation

BackgroundAvian influenza (AI) virus detections occurred frequently in 2022 and continue to pose a health, economic, and food security risk. The most recent global analysis of official reports of animal outbreaks and human infections with all reportable AI viruses was published almost a decade ago. Increased or renewed reports of AI viruses, especially high pathogenicity H5N8 and H5N1 in birds and H5N1, H5N8, and H5N6 in humans globally, have established the need for a comprehensive review of current global AI virus surveillance data to assess the pandemic risk of AI viruses. ObjectiveThis study aims to provide an analysis of global AI animal outbreak and human case surveillance information from the last decade by describing the circulating virus subtypes, regions and temporal trends in reporting, and country characteristics associated with AI virus outbreak reporting in animals; surveillance and reporting gaps for animals and humans are identified. MethodsWe analyzed AI virus infection reports among animals and humans submitted to animal and public health authorities from January 2013 to June 2022 and compared them with reports from January 2005 to December 2012. A multivariable regression analysis was used to evaluate associations between variables of interest and reported AI virus animal outbreaks. ResultsFrom 2013 to 2022, 52.2% (95/182) of World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) Member Countries identified 34 AI virus subtypes during 21,249 outbreaks. The most frequently reported subtypes were high pathogenicity AI H5N1 (10,079/21,249, 47.43%) and H5N8 (6722/21,249, 31.63%). A total of 10 high pathogenicity AI and 6 low pathogenicity AI virus subtypes were reported to the WOAH for the first time during 2013-2022. AI outbreaks in animals occurred in 26 more Member Countries than reported in the previous 8 years. Decreasing World Bank income classification was significantly associated with decreases in reported AI outbreaks (P

BackgroundInfluenza is an important contributor to acute respiratory illness, including pneumonia, and results in substantial morbidity and mortality globally. Understanding the local burden of influenza-associated severe disease can inform decisions on allocation of resources toward influenza control programs. Currently, there is no national influenza vaccination program in Uganda.MethodsIn this study, we used data on pneumonia hospitalizations that were collected and reported through the Health Management Information System (HMIS) of the Ministry of Health, Uganda, and the laboratory-confirmed influenza positivity data from severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) surveillance in three districts (Wakiso, Mbarara, and Tororo) to estimate the age-specific incidence of influenza-associated pneumonia hospitalizations from January 2013 through December 2016.ResultsThe overall estimated mean annual rate of pneumonia hospitalizations in the three districts was 371 (95% confidence interval [CI] 323-434) per 100,000 persons, and was highest among children aged ConclusionsThe burden of influenza-associated pneumonia hospitalizations was substantial in Uganda, and was highest among young children aged

We describe the epidemiological characteristics, pattern of circulation, and geographical distribution of influenza B viruses and its lineages using data from the Global Influenza B Study. We included over 1.8 million influenza cases occurred in thirty-one countries during 2000-2018. We calculated the proportion of cases caused by influenza B and its lineages; determined the timing of influenza A and B epidemics; compared the age distribution of B/Victoria and B/Yamagata cases; and evaluated the frequency of lineage-level mismatch for the trivalent vaccine. The median proportion of influenza cases caused by influenza B virus was 23.4%, with a tendency (borderline statistical significance, p = 0.060) to be higher in tropical vs. temperate countries. Influenza B was the dominant virus type in about one every seven seasons. In temperate countries, influenza B epidemics occurred on average three weeks later than influenza A epidemics; no consistent pattern emerged in the tropics. The two B lineages caused a comparable proportion of influenza B cases globally, however the B/Yamagata was more frequent in temperate countries, and the B/Victoria in the tropics (p = 0.048). B/Yamagata patients were significantly older than B/Victoria patients in almost all countries. A lineage-level vaccine mismatch was observed in over 40% of seasons in temperate countries and in 30% of seasons in the tropics. The type B virus caused a substantial proportion of influenza infections globally in the 21st century, and its two virus lineages differed in terms of age and geographical distribution of patients. These findings will help inform health policy decisions aiming to reduce disease burden associated with seasonal influenza.

Recent influenza surveillance data from Africa suggest an important burden of influenza-associated morbidity and mortality. In tropical countries where influenza virus transmission may not be confined to a single season alternative strategies for vaccine distribution via antenatal care (ANC) or semiannual campaigns should be considered.Using data on monthly influenza disease burden in women of child-bearing age and infants aged 0-5 months in Kenya from 2010-2014, we estimated the number of outcomes (illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths) that occurred and that may have been averted through influenza vaccination of pregnant women using: 1) a year-round immunization strategy through ANC, 2) annual vaccination campaigns, and 3) semiannual vaccination campaigns.During 2010-2014, influenza resulted in an estimated 279,047 illnesses, 36,276 medical visits, 1612 hospitalizations and 243 deaths in pregnant women and 157,053 illnesses, 65,177 medical visits, 4197 hospitalizations, and 755 deaths in infants aged 0-5 months in Kenya. Depending on the mode of distribution and the vaccine coverage achieved, 12.8-31.4% of influenza-associated disease in pregnant women and 11.6-22.1% in infants aged 0-5 months might have been prevented through maternal influenza immunization. In this model, point estimates for influenza-associated disease averted through maternal vaccination delivered year-round in ANC or semiannually in campaigns were higher than vaccination delivered in a single annual campaign, but confidence intervals overlapped.Vaccinating pregnant women against influenza can reduce the burden of influenza-associated illness, hospitalization and death in both pregnant women and their young infants. Alternative immunization strategies may avert more influenza-associated disease in countries where influenza virus transmission occurs throughout the year.

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated mortality has not been well-established in tropical Africa.We used the negative binomial regression method and the rate-difference method (i.e. deaths during low and high influenza/RSV activity months), to estimate excess mortality attributable to influenza and RSV using verbal autopsy data collected through a health and demographic surveillance system in Western Kenya, 2007-2013. Excess mortality rates were calculated for a) all-cause mortality, b) respiratory deaths (including pneumonia), c) HIV-related deaths, and d) pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) related deaths.Using the negative binomial regression method, the mean annual all-cause excess mortality rate associated with influenza and RSV was 14.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0-93.3) and 17.1 (95% CI 0.0-111.5) per 100,000 person-years (PY) respectively; and 10.5 (95% CI 0.0-28.5) and 7.3 (95% CI 0.0-27.3) per 100,000 PY for respiratory deaths, respectively. Highest mortality rates associated with influenza were among ≥50 years, particularly among persons with TB (41.6[95% CI 0.0-122.7]); and with RSV were among

BACKGROUND:The global burden of pediatric severe respiratory illness is substantial, and influenza viruses contribute to this burden. Systematic surveillance and testing for influenza among hospitalized children has expanded globally over the past decade. However, only a fraction of the data has been used to estimate influenza burden. In this analysis, we use surveillance data to provide an estimate of influenza-associated hospitalizations among children worldwide. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We aggregated data from a systematic review (n = 108) and surveillance platforms (n = 37) to calculate a pooled estimate of the proportion of samples collected from children hospitalized with respiratory illnesses and positive for influenza by age group (

INTRODUCTION:Determining the optimal time to vaccinate is important for influenza vaccination programmes. Here, we assessed the temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and in the tropics, and discuss their implications for vaccination programmes. METHODS:This was a retrospective analysis of surveillance data between 2000 and 2014 from the Global Influenza B Study database. The seasonal peak of influenza was defined as the week with the most reported cases (overall, A, and B) in the season. The duration of seasonal activity was assessed using the maximum proportion of influenza cases during three consecutive months and the minimum number of months with ≥80% of cases in the season. We also assessed whether co-circulation of A and B virus types affected the duration of influenza epidemics. RESULTS:212 influenza seasons and 571,907 cases were included from 30 countries. In tropical countries, the seasonal influenza activity lasted longer and the peaks of influenza A and B coincided less frequently than in temperate countries. Temporal characteristics of influenza epidemics were heterogeneous in the tropics, with distinct seasonal epidemics observed only in some countries. Seasons with co-circulation of influenza A and B were longer than influenza A seasons, especially in the tropics. DISCUSSION:Our findings show that influenza seasonality is less well defined in the tropics than in temperate regions. This has important implications for vaccination programmes in these countries. High-quality influenza surveillance systems are needed in the tropics to enable decisions about when to vaccinate.

Influenza-associated disease burden among children in tropical sub-Saharan Africa is not well established, particularly outside of the 2009 pandemic period. We estimated the burden of influenza in children aged 0-4 years through population-based surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute lower respiratory tract illness (ALRI). Household members meeting ILI or ALRI case definitions were referred to health facilities for evaluation and collection of nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs for influenza testing by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Estimates were adjusted for health-seeking behavior and those with ILI and ALRI who were not tested. During 2008-2012, there were 9,652 person-years of surveillance among children aged 0-4 years. The average adjusted rate of influenza-associated hospitalization was 4.3 (95% CI 3.0-6.0) per 1,000 person-years in children aged 0-4 years. Hospitalization rates were highest in the 0-5 month and 6-23 month age groups, at 7.6 (95% CI 3.2-18.2) and 8.4 (95% CI 5.4-13.0) per 1,000 person-years, respectively. The average adjusted rate of influenza-associated medically attended (inpatient or outpatient) ALRI in children aged 0-4 years was 17.4 (95% CI 14.2-19.7) per 1,000 person-years. Few children who had severe laboratory-confirmed influenza were clinically diagnosed with influenza by the treating clinician in the inpatient (0/33, 0%) or outpatient (1/109, 0.9%) settings. Influenza-associated hospitalization rates from 2008-2012 were 5-10 times higher than contemporaneous U.S. estimates. Many children with danger signs were not hospitalized; thus, influenza-associated severe disease rates in Kenyan children are likely higher than hospital-based estimates suggest.

In Kenya data on the burden of influenza disease are needed to inform influenza control policies.We conducted a systematic review of published data describing the influenza disease burden in Kenya using surveillance data collected until December 2013. We included studies with laboratory confirmation of influenza, well-defined catchment populations, case definitions used to sample patients for testing and a description of the laboratory methods used for influenza testing. Studies with or without any adjustments on the incidence rates were included.Ten studies reporting the incidence of medically-attended and non-medically attended influenza were reviewed. For all age groups, the influenza positive proportion ranged from 5-10% among hospitalized patients, and 5-27% among all medically-attended patients (a combination of in- and outpatients). The adjusted incidence rate of hospitalizations with influenza among children < 5 years ranged from 2.7-4.7 per 1,000 [5.7 per 1,000 in children < 6 months old], and were 7-10 times higher compared to persons aged ≥ 5 years. The adjusted incidence of all medically-attended influenza among children aged < 5 years ranged from 13.0-58.0 per 1,000 compared to 4.3-26.0 per 1,000 among persons aged ≥ 5 years.Our review shows an expanding set of literature on disease burden associated with influenza in Kenya, with a substantial burden in children under five years of age. Hospitalizations with influenza in these children were 2-3 times higher than reported in the United States. These findings highlight the possible value of an influenza vaccination program in Kenya, with children < 5 years and pregnant women being potentially important targets.

In Kenya, detailed data on the age-specific burden of influenza and RSV are essential to inform use of limited vaccination and treatment resources.We analyzed surveillance data from August 2009 to July 2012 for hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) at two health facilities in western Kenya to estimate the burden of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Incidence rates were estimated by dividing the number of cases with laboratory-confirmed virus infections by the mid-year population. Rates were adjusted for healthcare-seeking behavior, and to account for patients who met the SARI/ILI case definitions but were not tested.The average annual incidence of influenza-associated SARI hospitalization per 1,000 persons was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8-3.9) among children

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown that influenza is associated with significant disease burden in many countries in the tropics, but until recently national surveillance for influenza was not conducted in most countries in Africa. METHODS: In 2007, the Kenyan Ministry of Health with technical support from the CDC-Kenya established a national sentinel surveillance system for influenza. At 11 hospitals, for every hospitalized patient with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI), and for the first three outpatients with influenza-like illness (ILI) per day, we collected both nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs. Beginning in 2008, we conducted in-hospital follow-up for SARI patients to determine outcome. Specimens were tested by real time RT-PCR for influenza A and B. Influenza A-positive specimens were subtyped for H1, H3, H5, and (beginning in May 2009) A(H1N1)pdm09. RESULTS: From July 1, 2007 through June 30, 2013, we collected specimens from 24,762 SARI and 14,013 ILI patients. For SARI and ILI case-patients, the median ages were 12 months and 16 months, respectively, and 44% and 47% were female. In all, 2,378 (9.6%) SARI cases and 2,041 (14.6%) ILI cases were positive for influenza viruses. Most influenza-associated SARI cases (58.6%) were in children