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ABSTRACT Blood cultures are central to the management of patients with sepsis and bloodstream infection. Clinical decisions depend on the timely availability of laboratory information, which, in turn, depends on the optimal laboratory processing of specimens. Discrete event simulation (DES) offers insights into where optimization efforts can be targeted. Here, we generate a detailed process map of blood culture processing within a laboratory and use it to build a simulator. Direct observation of laboratory staff processing blood cultures was used to generate a flowchart of the blood culture laboratory pathway. Retrospective routinely collected data were combined with direct observations to generate probability distributions over the time taken for each event. These data were used to inform the DES model. A sensitivity analysis explored the impact of staff availability on turnaround times. A flowchart of the blood culture pathway was constructed, spanning labeling, incubation, organism identification, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Thirteen processes in earlier stages of the pathway, not otherwise captured by routinely collected data, were timed using direct observations. Observations revealed that specimen processing is predominantly batched. Another eight processes were timed using retrospective data. A simulator was built using DES. Sensitivity analysis revealed that specimen progression through the simulation was especially sensitive to laboratory technician availability. Gram stain reporting time was also sensitive to laboratory scientist availability. Our laboratory simulation model has wide-ranging applications for the optimization of laboratory processes and effective implementation of the changes required for faster and more accurate results.IMPORTANCEOptimization of laboratory pathways and resource availability has a direct impact on the clinical management of patients with bloodstream infection. This research offers an insight into the laboratory processing of blood cultures at a system level and allows clinical microbiology laboratories to explore the impact of changes to processes and resources.

Objective To estimate the cost-effectiveness of craniotomy, compared with decompressive craniectomy (DC) in UK patients undergoing evacuation of acute subdural haematoma (ASDH).Design Economic evaluation undertaken using health resource use and outcome data from the 12-month multicentre, pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised, Randomised Evaluation of Surgery with Craniectomy for Patients Undergoing Evacuation-ASDH trial.Setting UK secondary care.Participants 248 UK patients undergoing surgery for traumatic ASDH were randomised to craniotomy (N=126) or DC (N=122).Interventions Surgical evacuation via craniotomy (bone flap replaced) or DC (bone flap left out with a view to replace later: cranioplasty surgery).Main outcome measures In the base-case analysis, costs were estimated from a National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective. Outcomes were assessed via the quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) derived from the EuroQoL 5-Dimension 5-Level questionnaire (cost-utility analysis) and the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) (cost-effectiveness analysis). Multiple imputation and regression analyses were conducted to estimate the mean incremental cost and effect of craniotomy compared with DC. The most cost-effective option was selected, irrespective of the level of statistical significance as is argued by economists.Results In the cost-utility analysis, the mean incremental cost of craniotomy compared with DC was estimated to be −£5520 (95% CI −£18 060 to £7020) with a mean QALY gain of 0.093 (95% CI 0.029 to 0.156). In the cost-effectiveness analysis, the mean incremental cost was estimated to be −£4536 (95% CI −£17 374 to £8301) with an OR of 1.682 (95% CI 0.995 to 2.842) for a favourable outcome on the GOSE.Conclusions In a UK population with traumatic ASDH, craniotomy was estimated to be cost-effective compared with DC: craniotomy was estimated to have a lower mean cost, higher mean QALY gain and higher probability of a more favourable outcome on the GOSE (though not all estimated differences between the two approaches were statistically significant).Ethics Ethical approval for the trial was obtained from the North West—Haydock Research Ethics Committee in the UK on 17 July 2014 (14/NW/1076).Trial registration number ISRCTN87370545.

Objectives To identify the factors that determine treatment choices following pre-dialysis education.Design Retrospective cohort study using data linkage with univariate and multivariate analyses using linked data.Setting Secondary care National Health Service Wales healthcare system.Participants All people in Wales over 18 years diagnosed with established kidney disease, who received pre-dialysis education between 1 January 2016 and 12 December 2018.Main outcome measures Patient choice of dialysis modality and any kidney replacement therapy started.Results Mean age was 67 years; n=1207 (60%) were male, n=878 (53%) had ≥3 comorbidities, n=805 (66%) had mobility problems, n=700 (57%) had pain symptoms, n=641 (52%) had anxiety or were depressed, n=1052 (61.6%) lived less than 30 min from their treatment centre, n=619 (50%) were on a spectrum of frail to extremely vulnerable. n=424 (25%) chose home dialysis, n=552 (32%) chose hospital-based dialysis, n=109 (6%) chose transplantation, n=231 (14%) chose maximum conservative management and n=391 (23%) were ‘undecided’. Main reasons for not choosing home dialysis were lack of motivation/low confidence in capacity to self-administer treatment, lack of home support and unsuitable housing. Patients who choose home dialysis were younger, had lower comorbidities, lower frailty and higher quality of life scores. Multivariate analysis found that age and frailty were predictors of choice, but we did not find any other demographic associations. Of patients who initially chose home dialysis, only n=150 (54%) started on home dialysis.Conclusion There is room for improvement in current pre-dialysis treatment pathways. Many patients remain undecided about dialysis choice, and others who may have chosen home dialysis are still likely to start on unit haemodialysis.

IntroductionWhy is it that phonologies exhibit greater dispersion than we might expect by chance? In earlier work we investigated this using a non-linguistic communication game in which pairs of participants sent each other series of colors to communicate a set of animal silhouettes. They found that above-chance levels of dispersion, similar to that seen in vowel systems, emerged as a result of the production and perception demands acting on the participants. However, they did not investigate the process by which this dispersion came about.MethodTo investigate this we conducted a secondary statistical analysis of the data, looking in particular at how participants approached the communication task, how dispersion emerged, and what convergence looked like.ResultsWe found that dispersion was not planned from the start but emerged as a large-scale consequence of smaller-scale choices and adjustments. In particular, participants learned to reproduce colors more reliably over time, paid attention to signaling success, and shifted towards more extreme areas of the space over time.ConclusionThis study sheds light on the role of interactive processes in mediating between human minds and the emergence or larger-scale structure, as well as the distribution of features across the world's languages.

Introduction There is growing recognition that in order to remain sustainable, the UK’s National Health Service must deliver the best patient outcomes within available resources. This focus on outcomes relative to cost is the basis of value-based healthcare (VBHC) and has led to interest in the recording of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) to measure patient perspectives on the impact of a health condition on their lives. Every health board in Wales is now required to collect PROMS as part of routine care. We will evaluate the VBHC programme implemented in a lead health board. The study aim is to understand what works about PROMs collection, for whom, in what contexts and why in a VBHC context. In addition, we will assess the social value of integrating PROMs collection into routine care.Methods and analysis A three-stage mixed-methods study comprising a realist evaluation integrated with social return on investment (SROI) analysis across four conditions; Parkinson’s disease, epilepsy, heart failure and cataract surgery. Workstream 1: Development of logic models, informed by a scoping review, documentary analysis, patient and public involvement (PPI), staff and key stakeholder engagement. Workstream 2: Realist evaluation building on multiple data sources from stages 1 to 3 to test and refine the programme theories that arise from the logic model development. Workstream 3: SROI analysis using interview data with patients, staff and carers, stakeholder and PPI engagement, anonymised routinely collected data, and questionnaires to populate a model that will explore the social value generated by the implementation of PROMs. Findings across stages will be validated with key stakeholders.Ethics and dissemination The study is approved by Wales Research Ethics Committee #5 (22/WA/0044). Outcomes will be shared with key stakeholders, published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at national and international conferences.This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) licence, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build on this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial.

Abstract Context Too many people living with chronic kidney disease are opting for and starting on hospital‐based dialysis compared to a home‐based kidney replacement therapy. Dialysis services are becoming financially unsustainable. Objective This study aimed to assess the efficacy of coproductive research in chronic kidney disease service improvement to achieve greater sustainability. Design A 2‐year coproductive service improvement study was conducted with multiple stakeholders with the specific intention of maximizing engagement with the national health kidney services, patients and public. Setting and Participants A national health kidney service (3 health boards, 18 dialysis units), patients and families (n = 50), multidisciplinary teams including doctors, nurses, psychologists, social workers, and so forth (n = 68), kidney charities, independent dialysis service providers and wider social services were part of this study. Findings Coproductive research identified underutilized resources (e.g., patients on home dialysis and social services) and their potential, highlighted unmet social care needs for patients and families and informed service redesign. Education packages were reimagined to support the home dialysis agenda including opportunities for wider service input. The impacts of one size fits all approaches to dialysis on specialist workforce skills were made clearer and also professional, patient and public perceptions of key sustainability policies. Discussion and Conclusions Patient and key stakeholders mapped out new ways to link services to create more sustainable models of kidney health and social care. Maintaining principles of knowledge coproduction could help achieve financial sustainability and move towards more prudent adult chronic kidney disease services. Patient or Public Contribution Involved in developing research questions, study design, management and conduct, interpretation of evidence and dissemination.

Aims In UK there are around 76,000 hip fractures occur each year 10% to 15% of which are undisplaced intracapsular. There is considerable debate whether internal fixation is the most appropriate treatment for undisplaced fractures in older patients. This study describes cannulated hip screws survivorship analysis for patients aged ≥ 60 years with undisplaced intra-capsular fractures. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients aged ≥ 60 years who had cannulated screws fixation for Garden I and II fractures in a teaching hospital between March 2013 and March 2016. The primary outcome was further same-side hip surgery. Descriptive statistics were used and Kaplan-Meier estimates calculated for implant survival. Results A total of 114 operations were performed on 112 patients with a mean age of 80.2 years (SD 8.9). The 30-day and one-year mortality were 1% (n = 1) and 13% (n = 15), respectively. Median follow-up was 6.6 years (interquartile range 6.0 to 7.3). Kaplan-Meier estimates showed a survivorship of 95% at one year and 90% at five years (95% confidence interval 84% to 95%) for cannulated screws. Nine patients underwent further hip surgery: four revision to total hip arthroplasty, one revision to hemiarthroplasty, three removals of screws, and one haematoma washout. Posterior tilt was assessable in 106 patients; subsequent surgery was required in two of the six patients identified with a posterior angle > 20° (p = 0.035 vs angle < 20°). Of the 100 patients with angle < 20°, five-year survivorship was 91%, with seven patients requiring further surgery. Conclusion This study of cannulated hip screw fixation for undisplaced fractures in patients aged ≥ 60 years reveals a construct survivorship without further operation of 90% at five years. Cannulated screws can be considered a safe reliable treatment option for Garden I and II fractures. Caution should be taken if posterior tilt angle on lateral view exceeds 20°, due to a higher failure rate and reoperation, and considered for similar management to Garden III and IV injuries. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(3):182–188.

BackgroundValue-Based Healthcare (VBHC) focuses on the value of patient outcomes and is achieved by ensuring resources already available are managed to realise the best possible individual and population health outcomes. Patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) measure the impact of illnesses from the patient perspective. We conducted a scoping review to understand how PROMs were implemented and used, and their impact in the context of VBHC.MethodsArksey and O'Malley's overarching framework supplemented by principles from mixed-methods Framework Synthesis were used. CINAHL, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Web of Science, Google Scholar and reference lists were searched. An a priori data extraction framework was created using the review question and objectives as key domains against which to extract data. Mixed-methods data were organised, integrated and preserved in original format and reported for each domain.ResultsForty-three studies were included with 60,200 participants. Few studies reported a well-developed programme theory and we found little robust evidence of effect. PROMs were universally considered to have the potential to increase patient satisfaction with treatment and services, enhance patient awareness of symptoms and self-management, and improve health outcomes such as quality of life and global health status. Evidence is currently limited on how PROMs work and how best to optimally implement PROMs to achieve the target outcome. Implementation challenges commonly prevented the realisation of optimal outcomes and patients generally needed better and clearer communication about why PROMs were being given and how they could optimally be used to support their own self-management.ConclusionPROMSs have yet to demonstrate their full potential in a VBHC context. Optimal PROMs implementation is poorly understood by clinicians and patients. Future studies should explore different models of PROM implementation and use within VBHC programmes to understand what works best and why for each specific context, condition, and population.

Like all modern Celtic languages Welsh exhibits initial consonant mutation with both lexical and morphosyntactic triggers. Owing to the complexity of the system and the sociolinguistic situation of Welsh, change and variation in the system seems inevitable, and evidence for change has been observed in production. Less work, however, has focused on speakers’ attitudes and expectations in perception. We used an online auditory acceptability judgement survey to investigate expectations for different morphosyntactic soft-mutation triggers. Respondents listened to sentences with canonical and non-canonical mutation patterns and used Likert scales to indicate for each sentence whether they would use the same pattern themselves and whether they would expect it from others. Almost all respondents expected some variation, even in their own production, but two main clusters of respondents could be identified: “Conservative” respondents whose expectations were close to canonical mutation patterns and “Variable” respondents whose expectations were considerably more flexible. First-language status was the only demographic variable to predict respondent attitudes, suggesting that L2 Welsh speakers accept noncanonical mutation to a greater extent than L1 Welsh speakers. We also compared different mutation triggers, with the tentative conclusion that apparently identical triggers may not in fact be identical for all speakers, and that trigger transparency may be an important factor in predicting variability.

The frequent occurrence of a forest fire can be detrimental to the functioning of ecologically fragile regions such as the Western Himalaya. This study assesses the spatio-temporal variability and trends of fire occurrence in forests, shrubland, and grassland in relation to anthropogenic activities and climate oscillations over Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh; the most fire-affected states in the Western Himalaya. The Pre-monsoon (March to June) temporal distribution of fire occurrence is bimodal with the first and second fire peaks occurring in the last week of April and late May/early June, respectively. The length of fire season was found to have reduced by ~ 10 days in 2010s compared to 2000s with the increasing burned area concentration over a shorter period (~110 days). The Mann-Kendall Tau (τ) and Sen’s-slope suggested an increasing trend (τ = 0.3, Sen’s slope = 46.78 km2 year−1, p = 0.02) of burn area over Uttarakhand where most fire activity occurs. The Getis-Ords (Gi*) statistic was derived by using Fire Radiative Power (FRP) data to infer the spatial distribution of hot and cold clusters which were found to be greatest (Gi* = 1–10) in evergreen needleleaf forest which also accounted for a marginally higher mean per-pixel FRP than other land cover types. Analyses of the role of climatic variables on fire activity revealed moderate positive and negative correspondence between the burned area and average maximum-temperature (R = 0.57, p = 0.01) and total precipitation (R = – 0.53, p = 0.02), respectively. Assessment of the variation of fire activity with global climatic oscillation indices found the Niño-3.4 index to have the strongest, albeit modest, relationship (R = 0.51) with burned area anomalies. This study highlights the increase in fire intensity in the fragile forests of the Western Himalayan region and the requirement for further research into the role of climate and anthropogenic activities on fire occurrence in order to best preserve regional biodiversity and develop an effective forest management strategy.

Abstract Background Osteoarthritis of the knee is a common condition that is expected to rise in the next two decades leading to an associated increase in total knee replacement (TKR) surgery. Although there is little debate regarding the safety and efficacy of modern TKR, up to 20% of patients report poor functional outcomes following surgery. This study will investigate the functional outcome of two TKRs; the JOURNEY II Bi-Cruciate Stabilised knee arthroplasty, a newer knee prosthesis designed to provide guided motion and improve knee kinematics by more closely approximating a normal knee, and the GENESIS II, a proven existing design. Aim To compare the change in Patient-reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) scores of the JOURNEY II BCS and the GENESIS II from pre-operation to 6 months post operation. Methods CAPAbility is a pragmatic, blinded, two-arm parallel, randomised controlled trial recruiting patients with primary osteoarthritis due to have unilateral TKR surgery across two UK hospitals. Eligible participants (n = 80) will be randomly allocated to receive either the JOURNEY II or the GENESIS II BCS knee prosthesis. Baseline measures will be taken prior to surgery. Patients will be followed at 1 week, 6 to 8 weeks and 6 months post-operatively. The primary outcome is the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) at 6 months post-operatively. Secondary outcomes include: other PROMs, biomechanical, radiological (computerised tomography, (CT)), clinical efficacy and safety outcomes. An embedded qualitative study will also investigate patients’ perspectives via interview pre and post surgery on variables known to affect the outcome of TKR surgery. A sub-sample (n = 30) will have additional in-depth interviews to explore the themes identified. The surgeons’ perspectives on the operation will be investigated by a group interview after all participants have undergone surgery. Discussion This trial will evaluate two generations of TKR using PROMS, kinematic and radiological analyses and qualitative outcomes from the patient perspective. Trial registration International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number Registration, ID: ISRCTN32315753. Registered on 12 December 2017.

Objectives To explore how people with chronic kidney disease who are pre-dialysis, family members and healthcare professionals together navigate common shared decision-making processes and to assess how this impacts future treatment choice.Design Coproductive qualitative study, underpinned by the Making Good Decisions in Collaboration shared decision-model. Semistructured interviews with a purposive sample from February 2019 - January 2020. Interview data were analysed using framework analysis. Coproduction of logic models/roadmaps and recommendations.Setting Five Welsh kidney services.Participants 95 participants (37 patients, 19 family members and 39 professionals); 44 people supported coproduction (18 patients, 8 family members and 18 professionals).Findings Shared decision-making was too generic and clinically focused and had little impact on people getting onto home dialysis. Preferences of where, when and how to implement shared decision-making varied widely. Apathy experienced by patients, caused by lack of symptoms, denial, social circumstances and health systems issues made future treatment discussions difficult. Families had unmet and unrecognised needs, which significantly influenced patient decisions. Protocols containing treatment hierarchies and standards were understood by professionals but not translated for patients and families. Variation in dialysis treatment was discussed to match individual lifestyles. Patients and professionals were, however, defaulting to the perceived simplest option. It was easy for patients to opt for hospital-based treatments by listing important but easily modifiable factors.Conclusions Shared decision-making processes need to be individually tailored with more attention on patients who could choose a home therapy but select a different option. There are critical points in the decision-making process where changes could benefit patients. Patients need to be better educated and their preconceived ideas and misconceptions gently challenged. Healthcare professionals need to update their knowledge in order to provide the best advice and guidance. There needs to be more awareness of the costs and benefits of the various treatment options when making decisions.

Urban areas are expected to triple by 2030 in order to accommodate 60% of the global population. Anthropogenic landscape modifications expand coverage of impervious surfaces inducing the urban heat island (UHI) effect, a critical twenty first century challenge associated with increased economic expenditure, energy consumption, and adverse health impacts. Yet, omission of UHI measures from global climate models and metropolitan planning methodologies precludes effective sustainable development governance. We present an approach that integrates Earth observation and climate data with three-dimensional urban models to determine optimal tree placement (per square meter) within proposed urban developments to enable more effective localized UHI mitigation. Such data-driven planning decisions will enhance the future sustainability of our cities to align with current global urban development agendas.

A lack of data on patient choices and outcomes at the time of pre-dialysis planning limits meaningful shared decision making, particularly in older frailer patients. In this large retrospective cohort study of patients aged over 70 seen by the pre-dialysis clinic (2004-2016) of a large single centre in the United Kingdom (1,216 patients), age, sex, comorbidity, poverty and frailty were used to predict choice of renal replacement therapy (RRT) over maximum conservative management (MCM). The impact of patient choice of RRT versus MCM was used to predict survival from the time of choice using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Older age, female sex, greater poverty and greater frailty were associated with choosing MCM, whilst comorbidity had no significant impact on choice. At 5 years of follow up, 49% of all patients had died without receiving RRT. Over 70% of the patients choosing MCM died with better kidney function than the median level at which those starting RRT initiated treatment. Frailty and age were better predictors of survival than comorbidity and in patients with at least moderate frailty, RRT offered no survival benefit over MCM. In conclusion, analysing outcomes from the time of choice may improve shared decision making. Frailty should be routinely assessed and collected and further work may help predict which patients are unlikely to survive or progress to end stage renal disease and may not need to be burdened with making a pre-dialysis choice.

In the selection of apple (Malus domestica Borkh) fruits, consumers predominantly use visual and organoleptic responses, such as aroma and texture, as quality/preference markers. Previous studies profiling the sensory properties and aroma profiles of apple varieties have provided a lexicon describing important attributes within the modalities of aroma, texture, and flavour. The range of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) produced by four apple cultivars was assessed by thermal desorption-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (TD-GC-MS). To facilitate automated dynamic headspace extraction of the VOCs from bulk samples, a small multichamber thermal extraction system was used. Forty compounds were detected and putatively identified by mass spectral comparison with NIST libraries. Eight compounds were not previously identified in apples. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PerMANOVA) and canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP) done on the whole volatile organic compound profiles show separation of the four cultivars. The use of random forest classification enabled the determination of a minimum set of fifteen potential VOC markers that successfully differentiate the cultivars under study. Trends across samples, VOCs, and sensory evaluation are revealed. The association between 4-hexen-1-ol acetate with texture/consistency, and crispiness, and correlation of 2-methylbut-2-en-1-yl acetate with juiciness and acidity is shown for the first time. These sensory correlations indicate that the compounds determined by this experiment could be used as objective markers for the consumer appreciation of fresh apples, enabling the optimum conditions for processing and storage of individual cultivars to be identified without recourse to expensive sensory panels in every case. Such tests could also be used as part of routine quality control by the producer and retailer, reducing costs and eliminating waste due to batches of inferior product.

Satellite-based remote sensing of active fires is the only practical way to consistently and continuously monitor diurnal fluctuations in biomass burning from regional, to continental, to global scales. Failure to understand, quantify, and communicate the performance of an active fire detection algorithm, however, can lead to improper interpretations of the spatiotemporal distribution of biomass burning, and flawed estimates of fuel consumption and trace gas and aerosol emissions. This work evaluates the performance of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) Fire Thermal Anomaly (FTA) detection algorithm using seven months of active fire pixels detected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) across the Central African Republic (CAR). Results indicate that the omission rate of the SEVIRI FTA detection algorithm relative to MODIS varies spatially across the CAR, ranging from 25% in the south to 74% in the east. In the absence of confounding artifacts such as sunglint, uncertainties in the background thermal characterization, and cloud cover, the regional variation in SEVIRI’s omission rate can be attributed to a coupling between SEVIRI’s low spatial resolution detection bias (i.e., the inability to detect fires below a certain size and intensity) and a strong geographic gradient in active fire characteristics across the CAR. SEVIRI’s commission rate relative to MODIS increases from 9% when evaluated near MODIS nadir to 53% near the MODIS scene edges, indicating that SEVIRI errors of commission at the MODIS scene edges may not be false alarms but rather true fires that MODIS failed to detect as a result of larger pixel sizes at extreme MODIS scan angles. Results from this work are expected to facilitate (i) future improvements to the SEVIRI FTA detection algorithm; (ii) the assimilation of the SEVIRI and MODIS active fire products; and (iii) the potential inclusion of SEVIRI into a network of geostationary sensors designed to achieve global diurnal active fire monitoring.

African landscape fires are widespread, recurrent and temporally dynamic. They burn large areas of the continent, modifying land surface properties and significantly affect the atmosphere. Satellite Earth Observation (EO) data play a pivotal role in capturing the spatial and temporal variability of African biomass burning, and provide the key data required to develop fire emissions inventories. Active fire observations of fire radiative power (FRP, MW) have been shown to be linearly related to rates of biomass combustion (kg s−1). The Meteosat FRP-PIXEL product, delivered in near real-time by the EUMETSAT Land Surface Analysis Satellite Applications Facility (LSA SAF), maps FRP at 3 km resolution and 15-min intervals and these data extend back to 2004. Here we use this information to assess spatio-temporal variations in fire activity across sub-Saharan Africa, and identify an overall trend of decreasing annual fire activity and fuel consumption, agreeing with the widely-used Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv4) based on burned area measures. We provide the first comprehensive assessment of relationships between per-fire FRE-derived fuel consumption (Tg dry matter, DM) and temporally integrated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) net photosynthesis (PSN) (Tg, which can be converted into pre-fire fuel load estimates). We find very strong linear relationships over southern hemisphere Africa (mean r = 0.96) that are partly biome dependent, though the FRE-derived fuel consumptions are far lower than those derived from the accumulated PSN, with mean fuel consumptions per unit area calculated as 0.14 kg DM m−2. In the northern hemisphere, FRE-derived fuel consumption is also far lower and characterized by a weaker linear relationship (mean r = 0.76). Differences in the parameterization of the biome look up table (BLUT) used by the MOD17 product over Northern Africa may be responsible but further research is required to reconcile these differences. The strong relationship between fire FRE and pre-fire fuel load in southern hemisphere Africa is encouraging and highlights the value of geostationary FRP retrievals in providing a metric that relates very well to fuel consumption and fire emission variations. The fact that the estimated fuel consumed is only a small fraction of the fuel available suggests underestimation of FRE by Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) and/or that the FRE-to-fuel consumption conversion factor of 0.37 MJ kg−1 needs to be adjusted for application to SEVIRI. Future geostationary imaging sensors, such as on the forthcoming Meteosat Third Generation (MTG), will reduce the impact of this underestimation through its ability to detect even smaller and shorter-lived fires than can the current second generation Meteosat.

Urban land cover is one of the fastest global growing land cover types which permanently alters land surface properties and atmospheric interactions, often initiating an urban heat island effect. Urbanisation comprises a number of land cover changes within metropolitan regions. However, these complexities have been somewhat neglected in temperature analysis studies of the urban heat island effect, whereby over-simplification ignores the heterogeneity of urban surfaces and associated land surface temperature dynamics. Accurate spatial information pertaining to these land cover change—temperature relationships across space is essential for policy integration regarding future sustainable city planning to mitigate urban heat impacts. Through a multi-sensor approach, this research disentangles the complex spatial heterogeneous variations between changes in land cover (Landsat data) and land surface temperature (MODIS data), to understand the urban heat island effect dynamics in greater detail for appropriate policy integration. The application area is the rapidly expanding Perth Metropolitan Region (PMR) in Western Australia (WA). Results indicate that land cover change from forest to urban is associated with the greatest annual daytime and nighttime temperature change of 0.40 °C and 0.88 °C respectively. Conversely, change from grassland to urban minimises temperature change at 0.16 °C and 0.77 °C for annual daytime and nighttime temperature respectively. These findings are important to consider for proposed developments of the city as such detail is not currently considered in the urban growth plans for the PMR. The novel intra-urban research approach presented can be applied to other global metropolitan regions to facilitate future transition towards sustainable cities, whereby urban heat impacts can be better managed through optimised land use planning, moving cities towards alignment with the 2030 sustainable development goals and the City Resilience Framework (CRF).

Earth observation data can provide valuable assessments for monitoring the spatial extent of (un)sustainable urban growth of the world’s cities to better inform planning policy in reducing associated economic, social and environmental costs. Western Australia has witnessed rapid economic expansion since the turn of the century founded upon extensive natural resource extraction. Thus, Perth, the state capital of Western Australia, has encountered significant population and urban growth in response to the booming state economy. However, the recent economic slowdown resulted in the largest decrease in natural resource values that Western Australia has ever experienced. Here, we present multi-temporal urban expansion statistics from 1990 to 2015 for Perth, derived from Landsat imagery. Current urban estimates used for future development plans and progress monitoring of infill and density targets are based upon aggregated census data and metrics unrepresentative of actual land cover change, underestimating overall urban area. Earth observation provides a temporally consistent methodology, identifying areal urban area at higher spatial and temporal resolution than current estimates. Our results indicate that the spatial extent of the Perth Metropolitan Region has increased 45% between 1990 and 2015, over 320 km2. We highlight the applicability of earth observation data in accurately quantifying urban area for sustainable targeted planning practices.

In the dominant theoretical framework, human communication is modeled as the faithful transmission of information. This implies that when people are involved in communicational exchanges, they should be sensitive to the success with which information is transmitted, easily detecting when conversations lack coherence. The expectation that humans are good at detecting conversational incoherence is in line with common intuition, but there are several reasons to suspect that it might be unrealistic. First, similar intuitions have been shown to be unrealistic for a number of psychological processes. Second, faithful information transmission may conflict with other conversational goals. Third, mechanisms supporting information transmission may themselves lead to cases of incoherence being missed. To ascertain the extent to which people are insensitive to patches of serious conversational incoherence, we generated such patches in the laboratory by repeatedly crossing two unrelated conversations. Across two studies, involving both narrowly and broadly focused conversations, between 27% and 42% of the conversants did not notice that their conversations had been crossed. The results of these studies suggest that it may indeed be unrealistic to model spontaneous conversation as faithful information transmission. Rather, our results are more consistent with models of communication that view it as involving noisy and error-prone inferential processes, serving multiple independent goals.

Abstract In this paper, we introduce non-centered and partially non-centered MCMC algorithms for stochastic epidemic models. Centered algorithms previously considered in the literature perform adequately well for small data sets. However, due to the high dependence inherent in the models between the missing data and the parameters, the performance of the centered algorithms gets appreciably worse when larger data sets are considered. Therefore non-centered and partially non-centered algorithms are introduced and are shown to out perform the existing centered algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses how the reorganization of local government, enforced by recent government legislation, has affected Humberside County Council's leisure services department. Highlights the key issues to be addressed by library services in the reorganization process. Explains the preparations for change and new initiatives at both the corporate and departmental level aimed at improving communications during this process. Deals with service profiles, joint arrangements, budget disaggregation and staffing considerations. Explains staff transfer and recruitment procedures, with reference to statutory transfer orders (STOs) made by the Secretary of State. Concludes that the staff most involved in driving through the process of change do not have the security of being on a provisional STO, yet their positive commitment is essential if services are to be transferred effectively to new authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]