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1. Mathematical Modeling and Methodology for Assessing the Pace of Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation

Author

Victor Orlov, Tatyana Ivanova, Tatyana Ladykova, and Galina Sokolova

Subjects
mathematical modeling, forecasting, socio-economic development, assessment methodology, integral indicator, Mathematics, QA1-939
Abstract

The article develops the author’s methodology for assessing the rates of socio-economic development and their forecasting in the Russian Federation, which makes it possible to consider factors with heterogeneous metrics. For this, an index analysis of thirty-two indicators divided into seven macro-regional blocks (income, labor, business, ecology, society, prospects, finance) was carried out, integral indicators were calculated that characterize their changes and the pace of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation was determined. Further, using the means of mathematical modeling, a multifactorial mathematical model was built and tested in real-time, which makes it possible to obtain a high-quality predicted result. Based on the forecasts obtained, it can be stated that it is necessary to adjust certain indicators that actively influence the pace of development, which is a mathematical justification for making managerial decisions when developing strategies and programs related to socio-economic progress in the Russian Federation.

Published
2022
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2. The Pre-Nosological Diagnostics of Integral Health of a University Professor

Author

Amanay Myrzabayev, Yerbol Kabdolla, Gulbagiza Tnimova, Galina Sokolova, Marat Bodeyev, Olga Sivolobova, and Lyudmila Kuznetsova

Subjects
General Medicine
Abstract

Objective: In accordance with the WHO, health is defined as integral, consisting of physical, mental, and social components that are closely interrelated and reliably correlated. Thus, the health condition of 168 university professors (39 men and 129 women) was examined. Materials and methods: They were divided by age into 3 groups (group 1 – 23-39 years old, group 2 – 40-59 years old, group 3 – 60 and above). The physiological rates were evaluated during the autumn term, and the questionnaire was conducted during the spring term (2018- 2019). Professional motivation was chosen as an indicator of the social health of a professor (the method of K. Zamfir in the modification of A. Rean). The mental health of the survey participants was assessed by the level of occupational burnout (the method of K. Maslach and S. Jackson modified by N.E. Vodopyanova). Results and Discussion: The level of physical health was determined by estimating the biological age (BA) and comparing it with the standard population rate (the express method of V.P. Voitenko). The motivation of the professors is complex and expressed in different ways. It directly depends on gender and work experience. Professors of all ages are more or less susceptible to the syndrome of occupational burnout. Conclusion: According to the BA rate, the organism of young men strongly reacts to unfavorable factors of the educational process, but it adapts with age and work experience. The organism of women has a similar dynamic, but less negative reaction. In addition, the male aging is 1.6 times more accelerated than female aging. The methodological approach used provides a big picture of the integral health of a university professor. Bangladesh Journal of Medical Science Vol. 22 No. 02 April’23 Page : 432-441

Published
2023
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3. Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

Author

Svetlana Igosheva, Natalia Belyaeva, Aleksandra Krasnopevtseva, Aleksey Tomilin, Yuri Buyvolov, Tatiana Akimova, Aleksey Kudryavtsev, Irina Kozyr, Olga Rozhkova, Olga Ermakova, Yurij Tyukh, Evgeniy A. Davydov, Ozodbek Abduraimov, Elvira Kotlugalyamova, Mykhailo Motruk, Elena B. Pospelova, Natalia Korotkikh, Vladislav Timoshkin, Rustam Sibgatullin, Irina Fedchenko, Dmitrij Golovcov, Andrey S. Kuznetsov, Irina Nesterova, Tatyana Zubina, Galina Sokolova, Yuri Bykov, Miroslav Babushkin, Tomas Roslin, Helen Korolyova, Elena Smirnova, Sergei Stepanov, S. Sazonov, Evgeniy Meyke, Murad Kurbanbagamaev, Svetlana Bondarchuk, Sergey Kossenko, Darya Kiseleva, Vasyl Shevchyk, Alexander Hritankov, Elena Sitnikova, Oleg Bakin, Tatyana Gordeeva, Ludmila Dostoyevskaya, Irina Gaydysh, Margarita Kupriyanova, Coong Lo, Yuliia Kulsha, Vladimir Van, Elena Bochkareva, Mirabdulla Turgunov, Tatiana Filatova, Marina Yakovleva, Lilija Sultangareeva, Fedor Kazansky, P. D. Lebedev, Irina Megalinskaja, Akynaly Dubanaev, Elena Chakhireva, Elena Diadicheva, Aleksandra Esengeldenova, Juri Kurhinen, Tamara Nezdoliy, Maria Hällfors, Maxim Antipin, Alla Kozurak, Kirill Litvinov, Nicolay Zelenetskiy, Leonid Kolpashikov, Ksenia Shalaeva, Elena Andreeva, Vladimir Yakovlev, Ludmila Gromyko, Miroslava Sahnevich, Tatiana Polyanskaya, Viktor Mamontov, Valeri Sanko, Evgeniya Kaygorodova, Tatiana Tertitsa, Andrey Zahvatov, Nadezhda Kuyantseva, Anatoly Bobretsov, Oleg Mitrofanov, Elena Shujskaja, Aleksandr Ananin, Viktor Teplov, Valentina Teplova, Alexander Sukhov, Vladimir Hohryakov, Natalya Ivanova, Nadezhda Kutenkova, Yury Kalinkin, Gleb Tikhonov, Lidiya Makovkina, Lidia Epova, Alexey Pavlov, Anatolii Zheltukhin, Uliya Ivanova, María del Mar Delgado, Aleksandr Myslenkov, Evgeniya Bukharova, Guzalya Suleymanova, Gennady Bogdanov, Natalia Luzhkova, Irina Rybnikova, Nadezhda Goncharova, Nikolay Volodchenkov, Nataliya Skok, Yuri Rozhkov, Viktorija Teleganova, Aleksandr Minin, Vladimir Bobrov, Zoya Drozdova, Nina Belova, Irina Prokosheva, Svetlana Babina, Lidia Vetchinnikova, Svetlana Mayorova, Artur Meydus, Evgeny Kozlovsky, Violetta Strekalovskaya, Yurij Yarema, Ilya Prokhorov, Elena Ignatenko, Nadezhda Cherenkova, Tatyana Niroda, Vitalіy Stratiy, Valery Zakharov, Olga Chashchina, Oleg Evstigneev, Sergey Elsukov, Maksim Shashkov, Evgenii Korobov, Sergej Shubin, Ivan Putrashyk, Darya Panicheva, Klara Pavlova, Anatoliy Kutenkov, Ludmila Tselishcheva, Elena Ershkova, Vadim Bobrovskyi, Dmitry Tirski, Laura H. Antão, Vladimir Sopin, Olga Kuberskaya, Svetlana Skorokhodova, Svetlana Drovnina, Vladislav Vinogradov, Natalia Andriychuk, Sergey Kruglikov, Anatoliy Gavrilov, Anatoliy Vekliuk, Olga S Ermakova, Aleksandra Vasina, Anna Barabancova, Muzhigit Akkiev, Vladimir Kozsheechkin, Andrei Sivkov, Otso Ovaskainen, Polina Van, Azizbek Mahmudov, Anastasia A. Knorre, Julia Raiskaya, Evgeniya Bisikalova, Inna Basilskaja, Svetlana Chuhontseva, Anatoliy Shcherbakov, Vladimir Bolshakov, Alexander Samoylov, Igor N. Pospelov, Sergej Chistjakov, Viktor Demchenko, Natalia Nemtseva, Sergei Podolski, Alena Butunina, Gennadiy Kosenkov, Tatiana Novikova, Aleksandr Dobrolyubov, Andrej Tolmachev, Oksana Yantser, Yuriy Dubrovsky, Lyudmila Puchnina, Sergey Gashev, Natalia Sikkila, Violetta Fedotova, Zoya Selyunina, Evgeniy Larin, Inna Voloshina, Marina Rudenko, Elena Kulebyakina, Natalja Polikarpova, Aleksander Vasin, Yurii Spasovski, Olga Adrianova, Vitaly Grishchenko, Konstantin Arzamascev, Eliezer Gurarie, Svetlana Rykova, Elena E. Gorbunova, Nina Nasonova, Inna Sapelnikova, Marina Abadonova, Eugenia Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Anna Buyvolova, Tatjana Bespalova, Tura Xoliqov, University of Helsinki, Department of Agricultural Sciences, Biosciences, Spatial Foodweb Ecology Group, Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Plant Adaptation and Conservation, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS), Unit of Biodiversity Informatics, Otso Ovaskainen / Principal Investigator, Academy of Finland, European Commission, Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation, Research Council of Norway, Kone Foundation, and Russian Academy of Sciences

Subjects
IMPACTS, 1171 Geosciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, AUTUMN, SEASON, Climate change, Ecosystem integrity, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Latitude, 03 medical and health sciences, Community ecology, skin and connective tissue diseases, 1172 Environmental sciences, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Trophic level, Abiotic component, 0303 health sciences, CLIMATE-CHANGE, Ecology, Phenology, FLOWERING PHENOLOGY, COMMUNITY, VARIABILITY, Geography, Taxon, Habitat, 13. Climate action, TROPHIC LEVELS, sense organs, MARINE, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), RESPONSES
Abstract

Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes., The work was financially supported by the Academy of Finland, grants 250243 (O.O.), 284601 (O.O.), 309581 (O.O.); the European Research Council, ERC Starting Grant 205905 (O.O.) and Synergy Grant 856506 – LIFEPLAN (to O.O. and T.R.); Nordic Environment Finance Corporation Grant (O.O.); Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation Grant (O.O., T.R., M.H., L.A.); University of Helsinki HiLIFE Fellow Grant 2017–2020 (O.O.); and the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence Funding Scheme (223257) to O.O. via Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics; the Kone Foundation 44-6977 (M.D.) and 55-14839 (G.T.); a Spanish Ramon y Cajal grant RYC-2014-16263 (M.D.); the Federal Budget for the Forest Research Institute of Karelian Research Centre Russian Academy of Sciences 220-2017-0003, 0220-2017-0005 (L.V., S.S. and J.K.); the Russian Foundation for Basic Research Grant 16-08-00510 (L.K.), and the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation 0017-2019-0009 (Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences) (N.I., M. Shashkov).

Published
2021
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4. Differences in spatial versus temporal reaction norms for spring and autumn phenological events

Author

Olga Rozhkova, Elena Kulebyakina, Svetlana Babina, Olga Ermakova, Natalja Polikarpova, Anatolii Zheltukhin, Vladimir Bolshakov, Violetta Strekalovskaya, Olga Kuberskaya, Natalia Belyaeva, Aleksander Vasin, Darya Panicheva, Anatoliy Kutenkov, Elvira Kotlugalyamova, Artur Meydus, Aleksey Tomilin, Ludmila Tselishcheva, Mykhailo Motruk, Evgeny Kozlovsky, Yuri Buyvolov, Elena B. Pospelova, Natalia Korotkikh, Vadim Bobrovskyi, Anna Barabancova, Vitalіy Stratiy, Natalia Andriychuk, Margarita Kupriyanova, Dmitry Tirski, Klara Pavlova, Elena Andreeva, Tatyana Gordeeva, Ludmila Dostoyevskaya, Irina Kozyr, Yuriy Dubrovsky, Zoya Selyunina, Andrei Sivkov, Muzhigit Akkiev, Vladimir Kozsheechkin, Nataliya Skok, Viktorija Teleganova, Azizbek Mahmudov, Yurij Yarema, Elena Ershkova, Rustam Sibgatullin, Dmitrij Golovcov, Kirill Litvinov, Aleksey Kudryavtsev, Nadezhda Kuyantseva, Elena Shujskaja, Anastasia A. Knorre, Coong Lo, Mirabdulla Turgunov, Tatiana Filatova, Yurij Tyukh, Gennadiy Kosenkov, Aleksandra Esengeldenova, Lyudmila Puchnina, Tatyana Zubina, Alla Kozurak, Vladimir Hohryakov, Maxim Antipin, Svetlana Mayorova, Nikolay Volodchenkov, Eugenia Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Miroslava Sahnevich, Vladimir Yakovlev, Ludmila Gromyko, Tatiana Polyanskaya, Tatiana Novikova, Alexander Samoylov, Aleksandr Dobrolyubov, Helen Korolyova, Nicolay Zelenetskiy, Leonid Kolpashikov, S. Sazonov, Polina Van, Olga Adrianova, Evgeniy Meyke, Viktor Teplov, Valeri Sanko, Ilya Prokhorov, Elena Ignatenko, Tatyana Niroda, Nina Belova, Andrey Zahvatov, Aleksandr Ananin, Vitaly Grishchenko, Konstantin Arzamascev, María del Mar Delgado, Irina Prokosheva, Aleksandr Myslenkov, Yuri Rozhkov, Nadezhda Cherenkova, Svetlana Chuhontseva, Anna Buyvolova, Sergey Gashev, Natalya Ivanova, Nadezhda Kutenkova, Anatoliy Shcherbakov, Evgeniya Kaygorodova, Valentina Teplova, Nadezhda Goncharova, Oleg Mitrofanov, Svetlana Igosheva, Igor N. Pospelov, Sergej Chistjakov, Oleg Evstigneev, Sergey Elsukov, Maksim Shashkov, Ozodbek Abduraimov, Vladislav Timoshkin, Vasyl Shevchyk, Irina Fedchenko, Otso Ovaskainen, Galina Sokolova, Sergei Stepanov, Aleksandr Minin, Vladimir Bobrov, Sergey Kruglikov, Valery Zakharov, Miroslav Babushkin, Murad Kurbanbagamaev, Svetlana Bondarchuk, Lidiya Makovkina, Sergej Shubin, Zoya Drozdova, Tatjana Bespalova, Olga Chashchina, Yury Kalinkin, Natalia Sikkila, Alexander Hritankov, Ivan Putrashyk, Tura Xoliqov, Anatoliy Vekliuk, Evgenii Korobov, Alexey Pavlov, Yuliia Kulsha, Aleksandra Vasina, Aleksandra Krasnopevtseva, Marina Yakovleva, Lilija Sultangareeva, P. D. Lebedev, Gleb Tikhonov, Anatoly Bobretsov, Anatoliy Gavrilov, Andrej Tolmachev, Irina Megalinskaja, Uliya Ivanova, Viktor Mamontov, Lidia Epova, Gennady Bogdanov, Natalia Nemtseva, Tatiana Akimova, Sergei Podolski, Olga S Ermakova, Tatiana Tertitsa, Guzalya Suleymanova, Alexander Sukhov, Alena Butunina, Natalia Luzhkova, Tomas Roslin, Oksana Yantser, Evgeniya Bisikalova, Irina Rybnikova, Evgeniya Bukharova, Vladimir Sopin, Lidia Vetchinnikova, Darya Kiseleva, Inna Basilskaja, Evgeniy A. Davydov, Violetta Fedotova, Yuri Bykov, Vladimir Van, Sergey Kossenko, Juri Kurhinen, Elena Smirnova, Elena Bochkareva, Elena Sitnikova, Elena Chakhireva, Elena Diadicheva, Viktor Demchenko, Andrey S. Kuznetsov, Irina Nesterova, Fedor Kazansky, Irina Gaydysh, Tamara Nezdoliy, Svetlana Skorokhodova, Marina Abadonova, Svetlana Drovnina, Akynaly Dubanaev, Oleg Bakin, Ksenia Shalaeva, Eliezer Gurarie, Svetlana Rykova, Elena E. Gorbunova, Nina Nasonova, Inna Sapelnikova, Evgeniy Larin, Inna Voloshina, Marina Rudenko, Yurii Spasovski, Julia Raiskaya, Vladislav Vinogradov, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS), Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, and Research Centre for Ecological Change

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate Change, Lag, Population, Climate change, heating, Biology, COUNTERGRADIENT, phenology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, LOCAL ADAPTATION, PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY, 1ST FLOWERING DATES, medicine, Animals, chilling, PLANT, education, METAANALYSIS, Ecosystem, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Local adaptation, education.field_of_study, Phenotypic plasticity, CLIMATE-CHANGE, Multidisciplinary, EVOLUTIONARY SIGNIFICANCE, Ecology, Phenology, Temperature, Biological Sciences, Seasonality, medicine.disease, Adaptation, Physiological, ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES, plasticity, 1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology, Spatial variability, TEMPERATURE-MEDIATED SHIFTS, Seasons, Environmental Monitoring, USSR
Abstract

European Research Council (ERC) Starting Grant 205905 (to O.O.) and Synergy Grant 856506—LIFEPLAN (to O.O. and T.R.); Spanish Ramón y Cajal Grant RYC-2014-16263 (to M.M.D.) (...), Delgado, M.D.M., Roslin, T., Tikhonov, G., Meyke, E., Lo, C., Gurarie, E., Abadonova, M., Abduraimov, O., Adrianova, O., Akimova, T., Akkiev, M., Ananin, A., Andreeva, E., Andriychuk, N., Antipin, M., Arzamascev, K., Babina, S., Babushkin, M., Bakin, O., Barabancova, A., Basilskaja, I., Belova, N., Belyaeva, N., Bespalova, T., Bisikalova, E., Bobretsovz, A., Bobrov, V., Bobrovskyi, V., Bochkareva, E., Bogdanov, G., Bolshakov, V., Bondarchuk, S., Bukharova, E., Butunina, A., Buyvolov, Y., Buyvolova, A., Bykov, Y., Chakhireva, E., Chashchina, O., Cherenkova, N., Chistjakov, S., Chuhontseva, S., Davydov, E.A., Demchenko, V., Diadicheva, E., Dobrolyubov, A., Dostoyevskaya, L., Drovnina, S., Drozdova, Z., Dubanaev, A., Dubrovsky, Y., Elsukov, S., Epova, L., Ermakova, O.S., Ermakova, O., Esengeldenova, A., Evstigneev, O., Fedchenko, I., Fedotova, V., Filatova, T., Gashev, S., Gavrilov, A., Gaydys, I., Golovcov, D., Goncharova, N., Gorbunova, E., Gordeeva, T., Grishchenko, V., Gromyko, L., Hohryakov, V., Hritankov, A., Ignatenko, E., Igosheva, S., Ivanova, U., Ivanova, N., Kalinkin, Y., Kaygorodova, E., Kazansky, F., Kiseleva, D., Knorrem, A., Kolpashikov, L., Korobov, E., Korolyova, H., Korotkikh, N., Kosenkov, G., Kossenko, S., Kotlugalyamova, E., Kozlovsky, E., Kozsheechkin, V., Kozurak, A., Kozyr, I., Krasnopevtseva, A., Krugliko, S., Kuberskaya, O., Kudryavtsev, A., Kulebyakina, E., Kulsha, Y., Kupriyanova, M., Kurbanbagamaev, M., Kutenkov, A., Kutenkova, N., Kuyantseva, N., Kuznetsov, A., Larin, E., Lebedev, P., Litvinov, K., Luzhkova, N., Mahmudov, A., Makovkina, L., Mamontov, V., Mayorova, S., Megalinskaja, I., Meydus, A., Minin, A., Mitrofanov, O., Motruk, M., Myslenkov, A., Nasonova, N., Nemtseva, N., Nesterova, I., Nezdoliy, T., Niroda, T., Novikova, T., Panicheva, D., Pavlov, A., Pavlova, K., Van, P., Podolski, S., Polikarpova, N., Tatiana Polyanskaya81, Pospelov, I., Pospelova, E., Prokhorov, I., Prokosheva, I., Puchnina, L., Putrashyk, I., Raiskaya, J., Rozhkov, Y., Rozhkova, O., Rudenko, M., Rybnikova, I., Rykova, S., Sahnevich, M., Samoylov, A., Sank, V., Sapelnikova, I., Sazonov, S., Selyunina, Z., Shalaeva, K., Shashkov, M., Shcherbakov, A., Shevchyk, V., Shubin, S., Shujskaja, E., Sibgatullin, R., Sikkilah, N., Sitnikova, E., Sivkov, A., Skok, N., Skorokhodova, S., Smirnova, E., Sokolova, G., Sopin, V., Spasovski, Y., Stepanov, S., Stratiy, V., Strekalovskaya, V., Sukhov, A., Suleymanova, G., Sultangareeva, L., Teleganova, V., Teplov, V., Teplova, V., Tertitsa, T., Timoshkin, V., Tirski, D., Tolmachev, A., Tomilin, A., Tselishcheva, L., Turgunov, M., Tyukh, Y., Van, V., Ershkova, E., Vasin, A., Vasina, A., Vekliuk, A., Vetchinnikova, L., Vinogradov, V., Volodchenko, N., Voloshina, I., Xoliqov, T., Yablonovska-Grishchenko, E., Yakovlev, V., Yakovleva, M., Yantser, O., Yarema, Y., Zahvatov, A., Zakharov, V., Zelenetskiy, N., Zheltukhin, A., Zubina, T., Kurhinen, J., Ovaskainen, O.

Published
2020
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