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Natural and anthropogenic disturbances are important drivers of tree mortality, shaping the structure, composition, and biomass distribution of forest ecosystems. Differences in disturbance regimes, characterized by the frequency, extent, and intensity of disturbance events, result in structurally different landscapes. In this study, we design a model‐based experiment to investigate the links between disturbance regimes and spatial biomass patterns. First, the effects of disturbance events on biomass patterns are simulated using a simple dynamic carbon cycle model based on different disturbance regime attributes, which are characterized via three parameters: μ (probability scale), α (clustering degree), and β (intensity slope). 856,800 dynamically stable biomass patterns were then simulated using combined disturbance regime, primary productivity, and background mortality. As independent variables, we use biomass synthesis statistics from simulated biomass patterns to retrieve three disturbance regime parameters. Results show confident inversion of all three "true" disturbance parameters, with Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of 94.8% for μ, 94.9% for α, and 97.1% for β. Biomass histogram statistics primarily dominate the prediction of μ and β, while texture features have a more substantial influence on α. Overall, these results demonstrate the association between biomass patterns and disturbance regimes. Given the increasing availability of Earth observation of biomass, our findings open a new avenue to understand better and parameterize disturbance regimes and their links with vegetation dynamics under climate change. Ultimately, at a large scale, this approach would improve our current understanding of controls and feedback at the biosphere‐atmosphere interface in the present Earth system models. Plain Language Summary: Forest dynamics are shaped by different disturbances, which are challenging to monitor and predict. Identifying individual disturbance occurrences and their impact on forest carbon stocks (biomass) is complex. However, our study deciphers the characteristics of disturbance occurrence, that is, disturbance regime, from biomass pattern. We characterized this regime across three dimensions: extent (μ), frequency (α), and intensity (β). Through a 200‐year landscape experiment, we explored the synthetic dynamically stable biomass under different disturbance regimes. Statistical features from biomass simulations revealed distinct spatial patterns, forming a connection between these patterns and the disturbance regime parameters via machine learning. Notably, specific biomass pattern statistics influence distinct disturbance regime parameters: μ and β are linked to histogram stats, while α is tied to texture statistics. This approach establishes a framework to diagnose disturbance regimes from biomass patterns, offering a way to incorporate these regimes into Earth system models. Key Points: We investigate the link between disturbance regimes and spatial patterns of aboveground biomass emerging from diverse primary productivityThe proposed framework allows for inferring disturbance probability, size and intensity from spatial features in aboveground biomassDisturbance regimes from high‐res Earth observations can enhance carbon cycle dynamics prediction from interannual to longer time scales [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge about the vertical structure of forests, such as forest height, above-ground biomass (AGB), and the vertical biomass distribution is important for understanding carbon allocation, structural diversity, and succession and degradation dynamics in forest ecosystems. While the use of lidar (light detection and ranging) observations is well established to investigate the vertical structure of forests, the sensitivity of P-band synthetic aperture radar tomography (TomoSAR) observations to biomass and vertical forest structure is not yet well understood. Here we use lidar observations from NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) to analyse the sensitivity of airborne P-band SAR tomography backscatter to forest height and AGB at two tropical forests in Lopé and Mondah, Gabon, Africa. We use GEDI observations to parametrize an empirical model for estimating forest height and we use a random forest model for estimating AGB from TomoSAR profiles. The validation with Land, Vegetation, and Ice Sensor (LVIS) airborne lidar data shows moderate performance for estimating forest height (RMSE = 8.2 m in Lopé and 9.8 m in Mondah) and moderate to good performance for total AGB (RMSE = 115.3 Mg/ha in Lopé and 117.8 Mg/ha in Mondah). We also estimated the vertical distribution of AGB using the corrected TomoSAR backscatter and compared it with AGB profiles derived from field observations in Mondah, which indicates potential to use TomoSAR observations for estimating vertical AGB distribution over tropical forests. However, our results demonstrate the need for targeted field observations of vertical biomass profiles in order to make full use of P-band TomoSAR to map the vertical structure of tropical forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fires are a key component of the global carbon cycle and humans are changing their characteristics. Fire emission monitoring is important to keep track of those changes and TROPOMI satellite observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and the absorbing aerosol index can be used to quantify and verify the accuracy and precision of global wildfire emission estimates on a daily basis. Here we use TROPOMI observations to evaluate a new fire emission database based on Global Fire Atlas input for the Sense4Fire project (GFA20 S4F) and from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring (CAMS) Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) for a number of test regions worldwide representative of the most important wildfire type environments. The main focus is on Amazon and Cerrado biomes (tropical rain forests and deforestation) during August-September 2020, but analyses are also made for a region in sub-Saharan Africa (savannah) as well as two regions in Siberia (steppe and boreal forests/tundra). GFA-S4F and GFAS fire emissions are used as input for global atmospheric composition model simulations based on IFS-COMPO, i.e. an extension of ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) for simulating atmospheric composition. Comparing the model output with the TROPOMI observations then provides an indirect check on the realism of these emission estimates. Furthermore, for tropospheric nitrogen dioxide the IFS-COMPO model simulations are also used to estimate the model sensitivity of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide columns with respect to fire emission changes. This local relationship is used to optimize the fire NOx emissions directly using the TROPOMI nitrogen dioxide observations. The results reveal that for small fires emission nitrogen dioxide estimates are realistic on average albeit with a large spread, i.e. for individual fires emissions can be significantly under or overestimated regardless of emission database. However, for large fires nitrogen dioxide emissions are systematically and largely overestimated in all four regions. The overestimation can be an order of magnitude or even more. For area total nitrogen dioxide emissions this "large fire bias" is of minor importance, i.e. total nitrogen dioxide emissions are dominated by small fires. The GFA-S4F emission estimates were characterized by a larger positive bias for large fire NO2 emission cases compared to GFAS. The source of this bias is not well understood. With optimized NO2 emissions by direct adjustment of emission using TROPOMI nitrogen dioxide observations the large positive bias can efficiently be resolved. Combined with an update of soil NOx emissions - causing too low background NOx levels - a fairly good agreement between IFS-COMPO and TROPOMI was reached. Carbon monoxide was generally underestimated using GFAS emission (~50% on average for the selected regions). Updating carbon monoxide emissions over the Amazon region by incorporating more Sentinel satellite data (GFA-S4F) did reduce this fire CO bias significantly (to ~25% on average). Overall, the results show that TROPOMI data allows for systematically identifying uncertainties and errors in satellite-data based fire emissions. The results also suggest that the use of dynamic emission factors may further improve satellite based global emissions inventories. In addition, the results also highlight that the use of TROPOMI data could be much more detailed and refined towards assessing individual fires on a daily basis for better understanding fire dynamics and to improve and diversify fire emission factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is shifting the phenological cycles of plants.sup.1, thereby altering the functioning of ecosystems, which in turn induces feedbacks to the climate system.sup.2. In northern (north of 30° N) ecosystems, warmer springs lead generally to an earlier onset of the growing season.sup.3,4 and increased ecosystem productivity early in the season.sup.5. In situ.sup.6 and regional.sup.7-9 studies also provide evidence for lagged effects of spring warmth on plant productivity during the subsequent summer and autumn. However, our current understanding of these lagged effects, including their direction (beneficial or adverse) and geographic distribution, is still very limited. Here we analyse satellite, field-based and modelled data for the period 1982-2011 and show that there are widespread and contrasting lagged productivity responses to spring warmth across northern ecosystems. On the basis of the observational data, we find that roughly 15 per cent of the total study area of about 41 million square kilometres exhibits adverse lagged effects and that roughly 5 per cent of the total study area exhibits beneficial lagged effects. By contrast, current-generation terrestrial carbon-cycle models predict much lower areal fractions of adverse lagged effects (ranging from 1 to 14 per cent) and much higher areal fractions of beneficial lagged effects (ranging from 9 to 54 per cent). We find that elevation and seasonal precipitation patterns largely dictate the geographic pattern and direction of the lagged effects. Inadequate consideration in current models of the effects of the seasonal build-up of water stress on seasonal vegetation growth may therefore be able to explain the differences that we found between our observation-constrained estimates and the model-constrained estimates of lagged effects associated with spring warming. Overall, our results suggest that for many northern ecosystems the benefits of warmer springs on growing-season ecosystem productivity are effectively compensated for by the accumulation of seasonal water deficits, despite the fact that northern ecosystems are thought to be largely temperature- and radiation-limited.sup.10.Widespread but contrasting delayed responses of ecosystem productivity to spring warmth across northern ecosystems is inferred from satellite data, with higher areal fractions of adverse effects than beneficial effects., Author(s): Wolfgang Buermann [sup.1] [sup.2] , Matthias Forkel [sup.3] , Michael O'Sullivan [sup.1] , Stephen Sitch [sup.4] , Pierre Friedlingstein [sup.5] , Vanessa Haverd [sup.6] , Atul K. Jain [sup.7] [...]

Fires are a pervasive feature of the terrestrial biosphere and contribute large carbon emissions within the earth system. Humans are responsible for the majority of fire ignitions. Physical and empirical models are used to estimate the future effects of fires on vegetation dynamics and the Earth's system. However, there is no consensus on how human-caused fire ignitions should be represented in such models. This study aimed to identify which globally available predictors of human activity explain global fire ignitions as observed by satellites. We applied a random forest machine learning framework to state-of-the-art global climate, vegetation, and land cover datasets to establish a baseline against which influences of socioeconomic data (cropland fraction, gross domestic product (GDP), road density, livestock density, grazed lands) on fire ignition occurrence were evaluated. Our results showed that a baseline random forest without human predictors captured the spatial patterns of fire ignitions globally, with hotspots over Sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia. Adding single human predictors to the baseline model revealed that human variables vary in their effects on fire ignitions and that of the variables considered GDP is the most vital driver of fire ignitions. A combined model with all human predictors showed that the human variables improve the ignition predictions in most regions of the world, with some regions exhibiting worse predictions than the baseline model. We concluded that an ensemble of human predictors can add value to physical and empirical models. There are complex relationships between the variables, as evidenced by the improvement in bias in the combined model compared to the individual models. Furthermore, the variables tested have complex relationships that random forests may struggle to disentangle. Further work is required to detangle the complex regional relationships between these variables. These variables, e.g., population density, are well documented to have substantial effects on fire at local and regional scales; we determined that these variables may provide more insight at more continental scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is an integrative hydrological state that is key for our understanding of the global water cycle. The TWS observation from the GRACE missions has, therefore, been instrumental in the calibration and validation of hydrological models and understanding the variations in the hydrological storage. The models, however, still show significant uncertainties in reproducing observed TWS variations, especially for the interannual variability (IAV) at the global scale. Here, we diagnose the regions dominating the variance in globally integrated TWS IAV and the sources of the errors in two data-driven hydrological models that were calibrated against global TWS, snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, and runoff data. We used (1) a parsimonious process-based hydrological model, the Strategies to INtegrate Data and BiogeochemicAl moDels (SINDBAD) framework and (2) a machine learning, physically based hybrid hydrological model (H2M) that combines a dynamic neural network with a water balance concept. While both models agree with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) that global TWS IAV is largely driven by the semi-arid regions of southern Africa, the Indian subcontinent and northern Australia, and the humid regions of northern South America and the Mekong River basin, the models still show errors such as the overestimation of the observed magnitude of TWS IAV at the global scale. Our analysis identifies modeling error hotspots of the global TWS IAV, mostly in the tropical regions including the Amazon, sub-Saharan regions, and Southeast Asia, indicating that the regions that dominate global TWS IAV are not necessarily the same as those that dominate the error in global TWS IAV. Excluding those error hotspot regions in the global integration yields large improvements in the simulated global TWS IAV, which implies that model improvements can focus on improving processes in these hotspot regions. Further analysis indicates that error hotspot regions are associated with lateral flow dynamics, including both sub-pixel moisture convergence and across-pixel lateral river flow, or with interactions between surface processes and groundwater. The association of model deficiencies with land processes that delay the TWS variation could, in part, explain why the models cannot represent the observed lagged response of TWS IAV to precipitation IAV in hotspot regions that manifest as errors in global TWS IAV. Our approach presents a general avenue to better diagnose model simulation errors for global data streams to guide efficient and focused model development for regions and processes that matter the most. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation attenuates the microwave emission from the land surface. The strength of this attenuation is quantified in models in terms of the parameter vegetation optical depth (VOD) and is influenced by the vegetation mass, structure, water content, and observation wavelength. Earth observation satellite sensors operating in the microwave frequencies are used for global VOD retrievals, enabling the monitoring of vegetation at large scales. VOD has been used to determine above-ground biomass, monitor phenology, or estimate vegetation water status. VOD can be also used for constraining land surface models or modelling wildfires at large scales. Several VOD products exist, differing by frequency/wavelength, sensor, and retrieval algorithm. Numerous studies present correlations or empirical functions between different VOD datasets and vegetation variables such as the normalized difference vegetation index, leaf area index, gross primary production, biomass, vegetation height, or vegetation water content. However, an assessment of the joint impact of land cover, vegetation biomass, leaf area, and moisture status on the VOD signal is challenging and has not yet been done. This study aims to interpret the VOD signal as a multi-variate function of several descriptive vegetation variables. The results will help to select VOD at the most suitable wavelength for specific applications and can guide the development of appropriate observation operators to integrate VOD with large-scale land surface models. Here we use VOD from the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) in the Ku, X, and C bands from the harmonized Vegetation Optical Depth Climate Archive (VODCA) dataset and L-band VOD derived from Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) sensors. The leaf area index, live-fuel moisture content, above-ground biomass, and land cover are able to explain up to 93 % and 95 % of the variance (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) in 8-daily and monthly VOD within a multi-variable random forest regression. Thereby, the regression reproduces spatial patterns of L-band VOD and spatial and temporal patterns of Ku-, X-, and C-band VOD. Analyses of accumulated local effects demonstrate that Ku-, X-, and C-band VOD are mostly sensitive to the leaf area index, and L-band VOD is most sensitive to above-ground biomass. However, for all VODs the global relationships with vegetation properties are non-monotonic and complex and differ with land cover type. This indicates that the use of simple global regressions to estimate single vegetation properties (e.g. above-ground biomass) from VOD is over-simplistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections (1,2). The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type (3-6). Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is [23.sup.+7.sub.-4] years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semiarid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models., The largest global gross exchanges of carbon occur at the interface between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere (7). Changes in the net exchange of C[O.sub.2] between the land and [...]

The moisture content of vegetation canopies controls various ecosystem processes such as plant productivity, transpiration, mortality, and flammability. Leaf moisture content (here defined as the ratio of leaf water mass to leaf dry biomass, or live-fuel moisture content, LFMC) is a vegetation property that is frequently used to estimate flammability and the danger of fire occurrence and spread, and is widely measured at field sites around the globe. LFMC can be retrieved from satellite observations in the visible and infrared domain of the electromagnetic spectrum, which is however hampered by frequent cloud cover or low sun elevation angles. As an alternative, vegetation water content can be estimated from satellite observations in the microwave domain. For example, studies at local and regional scales have demonstrated the link between LFMC and vegetation optical depth (VOD) from passive microwave satellite observations. VOD describes the attenuation of microwaves in the vegetation layer. However, neither were the relations between VOD and LFMC investigated at large or global scales nor has VOD been used to estimate LFMC. Here we aim to estimate LFMC from VOD at large scales, i.e. at coarse spatial resolution, globally, and at daily time steps over past decadal timescales. Therefore, our objectives are: (1) to investigate the relation between VOD from different frequencies and LFMC derived from optical sensors and a global database of LFMC site measurements; (2) to test different model structures to estimate LFMC from VOD; and (3) to apply the best-performing model to estimate LFMC at global scales. Our results show that VOD is medium to highly correlated with LFMC in areas with medium to high coverage of short vegetation (grasslands, croplands, shrublands). Forested areas show on average weak correlations, but the variability in correlations is high. A logistic regression model that uses VOD and additionally leaf area index as predictor to account for canopy biomass reaches the highest performance in estimating LFMC. Applying this model to global VOD and LAI observations allows estimating LFMC globally over decadal time series at daily temporal sampling. The derived estimates of LFMC can be used to assess large-scale patterns and temporal changes in vegetation water status, drought conditions, and fire dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, and perpetuating climate change. Here, we review current understanding of the impacts of climate change on fire weather (weather conditions conducive to the ignition and spread of wildfires) and the consequences for regional fire activity as mediated by a range of other bioclimatic factors (including vegetation biogeography, productivity and lightning) and human factors (including ignition, suppression, and land use). Through supplemental analyses, we present a stocktake of regional trends in fire weather and burned area (BA) during recent decades, and we examine how fire activity relates to its bioclimatic and human drivers. Fire weather controls the annual timing of fires in most world regions and also drives inter‐annual variability in BA in the Mediterranean, the Pacific US and high latitude forests. Increases in the frequency and extremity of fire weather have been globally pervasive due to climate change during 1979–2019, meaning that landscapes are primed to burn more frequently. Correspondingly, increases in BA of ∼50% or higher have been seen in some extratropical forest ecoregions including in the Pacific US and high‐latitude forests during 2001–2019, though interannual variability remains large in these regions. Nonetheless, other bioclimatic and human factors can override the relationship between BA and fire weather. For example, BA in savannahs relates more strongly to patterns of fuel production or to the fragmentation of naturally fire‐prone landscapes by agriculture. Similarly, BA trends in tropical forests relate more strongly to deforestation rates and forest degradation than to changing fire weather. Overall, BA has reduced by 27% globally in the past two decades, due in large part to a decline in BA in African savannahs. According to climate models, the prevalence and extremity of fire weather has already emerged beyond its pre‐industrial variability in the Mediterranean due to climate change, and emergence will become increasingly widespread at additional levels of warming. Moreover, several of the major wildfires experienced in recent years, including the Australian bushfires of 2019/2020, have occurred amidst fire weather conditions that were considerably more likely due to climate change. Current fire models incompletely reproduce the observed spatial patterns of BA based on their existing representations of the relationships between fire and its bioclimatic and human controls, and historical trends in BA also vary considerably across models. Advances in the observation of fire and understanding of its controlling factors are supporting the addition or optimization of a range of processes in models. Overall, climate change is exerting a pervasive upwards pressure on fire globally by increasing the frequency and intensity of fire weather, and this upwards pressure will escalate with each increment of global warming. Improvements to fire models and a better understanding of the interactions between climate, climate extremes, humans and fire are required to predict future fire activity and to mitigate against its consequences. Plain Language Summary: In this review, with supplemental data analyses, we focus on the global and regional impacts of climate change on the frequency and intensity of fire weather (conditions conducive to fire ignition and spread) and the consequences for fire activity. We find that significant increases in fire weather have occurred in most world regions during recent decades due to climate change. Corresponding increases in the area burned by fires have been seen in some regions, most notably in mesic forests, however, in many regions fire is controlled by a range of other bioclimatic and human factors whose influences mediate or override those of fire weather. Weather conditions affecting vegetation growth and the build‐up of fuels, the presence of human ignitions in regions that are not naturally fire‐prone, and the fragmentation of fire‐prone landscapes by agriculture are key examples of factors that can locally or regionally outweigh fire weather as controls on fire activity. Climate models project that fire weather will become increasingly frequent and intense under future warming, and at an increasing rate with each additional increment of warming. The outcomes for fire activity in future will depend on other regionally important factors that control fire ignition and spread. Existing fire models represent the controls on fire incompletely and so they reproduce observed patterns of fire with only limited success. Models also disagree on historical trends, leading to low confidence in their simulations of future fire activity. Various efforts to improve the representation of fire in models are underway and should yield greater capacity to predict the future of fire activity. Key Points: The frequency and severity of fire weather has increased in recent decades and is projected to escalate with each added increment of warmingFire weather is one of the major controls on fire activity, and is the dominant control on variability in burned area (BA) in many mesic forest ecoregionsVarious human and bioclimatic factors also control fire, modulating the relationship between BA and fire weather in many regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is an integrative hydrological state that is key for our understanding of the global water cycle. The TWS observation from GRACE missions has, therefore, been instrumental in calibration and validation of hydrological models and understanding the variations of the hydrological storages. The models, however, still show significant uncertainties in reproducing observed TWS variations, especially for the interannual variability (IAV) at the global scale. Here, we diagnose the regions dominating the variance of globally integrated TWS IAV, and sources of the errors in two data-driven hydrological models that were calibrated against global TWS, snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, and runoff data: 1) a parsimonious process-based hydrological model, the Strategies to INtegrate Data and BiogeochemicAl moDels (SINDBAD) framework, and 2) a machine learning-physically based hybrid hydrological model (H2M) that combines a dynamic neural network with a water balance concept. While both models agree with GRACE that global TWS IAV is largely driven by the semi-arid regions of southern Africa, Indian subcontinent and northern Australia, and the humid regions of northern South America and Mekong River Basin, the models still show errors such as overestimation of the observed magnitude of TWS IAV at the global scale. Our analysis identifies modeling error hotspots of the global TWS IAV mostly in the tropical regions including Amazon, sub-Saharan regions, and Southeast Asia, indicating that the regions that dominate global TWS IAV are not necessarily the same as those that dom15 inate the error in global TWS IAV. Excluding those error hotspot regions in the global integration yields large improvements of simulated global TWS IAV, which implies that model improvements can focus on improving processes in these hotspot regions. Further analysis indicates that error hotspot regions are associated with lateral flow dynamics, including both sub-pixel moisture convergence and across pixel lateral river flow, or with interactions between surface processes and groundwater. The association of model deficiencies with land processes that delay the TWS variation could, in part, explain why the models cannot represent the observed lagged response of TWS IAV to precipitation IAV in hotspot regions that manifest to errors in global TWS IAV. Our approach presents a general avenue to better diagnose model simulation errors for global data streams to guide efficient and focused model development for regions and processes that matter the most. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation attenuates the microwave emission from the land surface. The strength of this attenuation is quantified in models in terms of the parameter Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD), and is influenced by the vegetation mass, structure, water content, and observation wavelength. Earth observation satellites operating in the microwave frequencies are used for global VOD retrievals, enabling the monitoring of vegetation status at large scales. VOD has been used to determine aboveground biomass, monitor phenology or estimate vegetation water status. VOD can be also used for constraining land surface models or modelling wildfires at large scale. Several VOD products exist differing by frequency/wavelength, sensor, and retrieval algorithm. Numerous studies present correlations or empirical functions between different VOD datasets and vegetation variables such as normalised difference vegetation index, leaf area index, gross primary production, biomass, vegetation height or vegetation water content. However, an assessment of the joint impact of land cover, vegetation biomass, leaf area, and moisture status on the VOD signal is challenging and has not yet been done. This study aims to interpret the VOD signal as a multi-variate function of several descriptive vegetation variables. The results will help to select certain VOD wavelengths for specific applications and can guide the development of appropriate observation operators to integrate VOD with large-scale land surface models. Here we use VOD from the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) of Ku-, X- and C-bands of the harmonised VODCA dataset and level 3 L-band derived from SMOS and SMAP sensors. Within a multivariable regression random forest model for simulating these VOD signals, leaf area index, live-fuel moisture content, above-ground biomass, and land cover are able to explain up to 0.95 of the variance (coefficient of determination). Thereby, the variance in L-band VOD is reproduced spatially and for Ku-, X- and C-band VOD spatially as well as temporally. Analyses of accumulated local effects demonstrate that Ku-, X- and C-band VOD is mostly sensitive to leaf area index and L-band VOD to above-ground biomass. However, for all VODs the global relationships with vegetation properties are non-monotonic and complex and differ with land cover type. This indicates that the use of simple global regressions to estimate single vegetation properties (e.g. above-ground biomass) from VOD is over-simplistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The moisture content of vegetation canopies controls various ecosystem processes such as plant productivity, transpiration, mortality and flammability. Leaf moisture content (here defined as the ratio of leaf water mass to leaf dry biomass, or live-fuel moisture content, LFMC) is a vegetation property that is frequently used to estimate flammability and the danger of fire occurrence and spread and is widely measured at field sites around the globe. LFMC can be retrieved from satellite observations in the visible and infrared domain of the electromagnetic spectrum, which is however hampered by frequent cloud cover or low sun elevation angles. As an alternative, vegetation water content can be estimated from satellite observations in the microwave domain. For example, studies at local and regional scales have demonstrated the link between LFMC and vegetation optical depth (VOD) from passive microwave satellite observations. VOD describes the attenuation of microwaves in the vegetation layer. However, neither were the relations between VOD and LFMC investigated at large or global scales nor has VOD been used to estimate LFMC. Here we aim to estimate LFMC from VOD at large scales, i.e. at coarse spatial resolution, globally, and at daily time steps over decadal time series. Therefore, our objectives are 1) to investigate the relation between VOD from different frequencies and LFMC derived from optical sensors and a global database of LFMC site measurements; 2) to test different model structures to estimate LFMC from VOD; and 3) to apply the best-performing model to estimate LFMC at global scales. Our results show that VOD is medium to highly correlated with LFMC in areas with medium to high coverage of short vegetation (grasslands, croplands, shrublands). Forested areas show on average weak correlations but the variability in correlations is high. A logistic regression model that uses VOD and additionally leaf area index as predictor to account for canopy biomass reaches the highest performance. Applying this model to global VOD and LAI observations allows estimating LFMC globally over decadal time series at daily temporal sampling. The derived estimates of LFMC can be used to assess large-scale patterns and temporal changes in vegetation water status and fire dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term global monitoring of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is crucial for assessing ecosystem responses to global climate change. In recent decades, great advances have been made in estimating GPP and many global GPP datasets have been published. These datasets are based on observations from optical remote sensing, are upscaled from in situ measurements, or rely on process-based models. Although these approaches are well established within the scientific community, datasets nevertheless differ significantly. Here, we introduce the new VODCA2GPP dataset, which utilizes microwave remote sensing estimates of vegetation optical depth (VOD) to estimate GPP at the global scale for the period 1988–2020. VODCA2GPP applies a previously developed carbon-sink-driven approach (Teubner et al., 2019, 2021) to estimate GPP from the Vegetation Optical Depth Climate Archive (Moesinger et al., 2020; Zotta et al., 2022​​​​​​​), which merges VOD observations from multiple sensors into one long-running, coherent data record. VODCA2GPP was trained and evaluated against FLUXNET in situ observations of GPP and compared against largely independent state-of-the-art GPP datasets from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), FLUXCOM, and the TRENDY-v7 process-based model ensemble. The site-level evaluation with FLUXNET GPP indicates an overall robust performance of VODCA2GPP with only a small bias and good temporal agreement. The comparisons with MODIS, FLUXCOM, and TRENDY-v7 show that VODCA2GPP exhibits very similar spatial patterns across all biomes but with a consistent positive bias. In terms of temporal dynamics, a high agreement was found for regions outside the humid tropics, with median correlations around 0.75. Concerning anomalies from the long-term climatology, VODCA2GPP correlates well with MODIS and TRENDY-v7 (Pearson's r 0.53 and 0.61) but less well with FLUXCOM (Pearson's r 0.29). A trend analysis for the period 1988–2019 did not exhibit a significant trend in VODCA2GPP at the global scale but rather suggests regionally different long-term changes in GPP. For the shorter overlapping observation period (2003–2015) of VODCA2GPP, MODIS, and the TRENDY-v7 ensemble, significant increases in global GPP were found. VODCA2GPP can complement existing GPP products and is a valuable dataset for the assessment of large-scale and long-term changes in GPP for global vegetation and carbon cycle studies. The VODCA2GPP dataset is available at the TU Data Repository of TU Wien (10.48436/1k7aj-bdz35, Wild et al., 2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term global monitoring of terrestrial Gross Primary Production (GPP) is crucial for assessing ecosystem response to global climate change. In recent years and decades, great advances in estimating GPP on a global level have been made and many global GPP datasets have been published. These global data records are either based on observations from optical remote sensing, are upscaled from in situ measurements, or rely on process-based models. The different estimation approaches are well established within the scientific community but also exhibit significant discrepancies among each other. Here, we introduce the new VODCA2GPP dataset, which utilizes microwave remote sensing estimates of Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD) to estimate GPP on a global scale. VODCA2GPP is able to complement existing products with long-term GPP estimates covering the period 1988 - 2020. VODCA2GPP applies a previously developed carbon sink-driven approach (Teubner et al., 2019, 2021) to estimate GPP from the Vegetation Optical Depth Climate Archive (Zotta et al., in prep.; Moesinger et al., 2020), which merges VOD observations from multiple sensors into one long-running, coherent data record. VODCA2GPP was trained and evaluated against FLUXNET in situ observations of GPP and assessed against largely independent state-of-the art GPP datasets (MODIS GPP, FLUXCOM GPP, and GPP estimates from the TRENDY-v7 model ensemble). These assessments show that VODCA2GPP exhibits very similar spatial patterns compared to existing GPP datasets across all biomes but with a consistent positive bias. In terms of temporal dynamics, a high agreement was found for regions outside the humid tropics, with median correlations around 0.75. Concerning anomalies from the long-term climatology, VODCA2GPP correlates well with MODIS and TRENDY-v7 GPP (Pearson's r: 0.53 and 0.61) but less with FLUXCOM GPP (Pearson's r: 0.29). A trend analysis for the period 1988-2019 did not exhibit a significant trend in VODCA2GPP on a global scale but rather suggests regionally differing long-term changes in GPP. Significant similar increases of global GPP that were found for VODCA2GPP, MODIS GPP, and the TRENDY-v7 ensemble for the shorter overlapping observation period (2003-2015) supports the theory of elevated CO2 uptake potentially induced by increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the associated rising temperatures. The VODCA2GPP dataset is available at TU Data (https://doi.org/10.48436/1k7aj-bdz35; Wild et al., 2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The productivity of terrestrial vegetation is determined by multiple land surface and atmospheric drivers. Water availability is critical for vegetation productivity, but the role of vertical variability of soil moisture (SM) is largely unknown. Here, we analyze dominant controls of global vegetation productivity represented by sun-induced fluorescence and spectral vegetation indices at the half-monthly time scale. We apply random forests to predict vegetation productivity from several hydrometeorological variables including multi-layer SM and quantify the variable importance. Dominant hydrometeorological controls generally vary with latitudes: temperature in higher latitudes, solar radiation in lower latitudes, and root-zone SM in between. We find that including vertically resolved SM allows a better understanding of vegetation productivity and reveals extended water-related control. The deep(er) SM control for semi-arid grasses and shrubs illustrates the potential of deep(er) rooting systems to adapt to water limitation. This study highlights the potential to infer sub-surface processes from remote sensing observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal and longer-term dynamics of fuel accumulation affect fire seasonality and the occurrence of extreme wildfires. Failure to account for their influence may help to explain why state-of-the-art fire models do not simulate the length and timing of the fire season or interannual variability in burnt area well. We investigated the impact of accounting for different timescales of fuel production and accumulation on burnt area using a suite of random forest regression models that included the immediate impact of climate, vegetation, and human influences in a given month and tested the impact of various combinations of antecedent conditions in four productivity-related vegetation indices and in antecedent moisture conditions. Analyses were conducted for the period from 2010 to 2015 inclusive. Inclusion of antecedent vegetation conditions representing fuel build-up led to an improvement of the global, climatological out-of-sample R2 from 0.579 to 0.701 , but the inclusion of antecedent vegetation conditions on timescales ≥1 year had no impact on simulated burnt area. Current moisture levels were the dominant influence on fuel drying. Additionally, antecedent moisture levels were important for fuel build-up. The models also enabled the visualisation of interactions between variables, such as the importance of antecedent productivity coupled with instantaneous drying. The length of the period which needs to be considered varies across biomes; fuel-limited regions are sensitive to antecedent conditions that determine fuel build-up over longer time periods (∼4 months), while moisture-limited regions are more sensitive to current conditions that regulate fuel drying. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation optical depth (VOD) from microwave satellite observations has received much attention in global vegetation studies in recent years due to its relationship to vegetation water content and biomass. We recently have shown that VOD is related to plant productivity, i.e., gross primary production (GPP). Based on this relationship between VOD and GPP, we developed a theory-based machine learning model to estimate global patterns of GPP from passive microwave VOD retrievals. The VOD-GPP model generally showed good agreement with site observations and other global data sets in temporal dynamic but tended to overestimate annual GPP across all latitudes. We hypothesized that the reason for the overestimation is the missing effect of temperature on autotrophic respiration in the theory-based machine learning model. Here we aim to further assess and enhance the robustness of the VOD-GPP model by including the effect of temperature on autotrophic respiration within the machine learning approach and by assessing the interannual variability of the model results with respect to water availability. We used X-band VOD from the VOD Climate Archive (VODCA) data set for estimating GPP and used global state-of-the-art GPP data sets from FLUXCOM and MODIS to assess residuals of the VOD-GPP model with respect to drought conditions as quantified by the Standardized Precipitation and Evaporation Index (SPEI). Our results reveal an improvement in model performance for correlation when including the temperature dependency of autotrophic respiration (average correlation increase of 0.18). This improvement in temporal dynamic is larger for temperate and cold regions than for the tropics. For unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) and bias, the results are regionally diverse and are compensated in the global average. Improvements are observed in temperate and cold regions, while decreases in performance are obtained mainly in the tropics. The overall improvement when adding temperature was less than expected and thus may only partly explain previously observed differences between the global GPP data sets. On interannual timescales, estimates of the VOD-GPP model agree well with GPP from FLUXCOM and MODIS. We further find that the residuals between VOD-based GPP estimates and the other data sets do not significantly correlate with SPEI, which demonstrates that the VOD-GPP model can capture responses of GPP to water availability even without including additional information on precipitation, soil moisture or evapotranspiration. Exceptions from this rule were found in some regions: significant negative correlations between VOD-GPP residuals and SPEI were observed in the US corn belt, Argentina, eastern Europe, Russia and China, while significant positive correlations were obtained in South America, Africa and Australia. In these regions, the significant correlations may indicate different plant strategies for dealing with variations in water availability. Overall, our findings support the robustness of global microwave-derived estimates of gross primary production for large-scale studies on climate–vegetation interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The terrestrial biosphere is exposed to land-use and climate change, which not only affects vegetation dynamics, but also changes land-atmosphere feedbacks. Specifically, changes in land-cover affect biophysical feedbacks of water and energy, therefore contributing to climate change. In this study, we couple the well established and comprehensively validated Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJmL5 to the coupled climate model CM2Mc, which is based on the atmosphere model AM2 and the ocean model MOM5 (CM2Mc-LPJmL5). In CM2Mc, we replace the simple land surface model LaD (where vegetation is static and prescribed) with LPJmL5 and fully couple the water and energy cycles using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Flexible Modeling System (FMS). Several improvements to LPJmL5 were implemented to allow a fully functional biophysical coupling. These include a sub-daily cycle for calculating energy and water fluxes, a conductance of the soil evaporation and plant interception, a canopy-layer humidity, and the surface energy balance in order to calculate the surface and canopy layer temperature within LPJmL5. Exchanging LaD by LPJmL5, and therefore switching from a static and prescribed vegetation to a dynamic vegetation, allows us to model important biosphere processes, including fire, mortality, permafrost, hydrological cycling, and the impacts of managed land (crop growth and irrigation). Our results show that CM2Mc-LPJmL has similar temperature and precipitation biases as the original CM2Mc model with LaD. Performance of LPJmL5 in the coupled system compared to Earth observation data and to LPJmL offline simulation results is within acceptable error margins. The historic global mean temperature evolution of our model setup is within the range of CMIP5 models. The comparison of model runs with and without land-use change shows a partially warmer and drier climate state across the global land surface. CM2Mc-LPJmL opens new opportunities to investigate important biophysical vegetation-climate feedbacks with a state-of-the-art and process-based dynamic vegetation model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pannonian Basin in southeastern Europe is heavily used for rain-fed agriculture. The region experienced several droughts in the last years, causing major yield losses. Ongoing climate change, characterised by increasing temperatures and potential evapotranspiration, and by changes in precipitation distribution will likely increase the frequency and intensity of drought episodes in the future. Hence, ongoing monitoring of droughts and estimation of their impact on agriculture is necessary to adapt agricultural practices to changing weather and climate extremes. Several regional initiatives, projects and online tools have been established to facilitate drought monitoring and management in the Pannonian Basin. However, reliable systems to forecast potential drought impacts on plant productivity and agricultural yields at monthly to seasonal scales are only in their infancy, as plant response to climatic extremes is still poorly understood. With the increasing availability of high-resolution and long-term Earth Observation (EO) data and recent progress in machine learning and artificial intelligence, further improvements in drought monitoring and impact prediction capacities are expected. Here we review the current state of drought monitoring in the Pannonian Basin, identify EO-based variables to potentially improve regional drought impact monitoring and outline future perspectives for seasonal forecasts of drought impacts on agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation optical depth (VOD) from microwave satellite observations has received much attention in global vegetation studies in recent years due to its relationship to vegetation water content and biomass. We recently have shown that VOD is related to plant productivity, i.e. gross primary production (GPP). Based on this relationship between VOD and GPP we developed a theory-based machine learning model to estimate global patterns of GPP from passive microwave VOD retrievals. The VOD-GPP model generally showed good agreement with site observations and other global data sets in temporal dynamic but tended to overestimate annual GPP across all latitudes. We hypothesized that the reason for the overestimation is the missing effect of temperature on autotrophic respiration in the theory-based machine learning model. Here we aim to further assess and enhance the robustness of the VOD-GPP model by including the effect of temperature on autotrophic respiration within the machine learning approach and by assessing the interannual variability of the model results with respect to water availability. We used X-band VOD from the VOD Climate Archive (VODCA) data set for estimating GPP and used global state-of-the art GPP data sets from FLUXCOM and MODIS to assess residuals of the VOD-GPP model with respect to drought conditions as quantified by the Standardized Precipitation and Evaporation Index (SPEI). Our results reveal an improvement in model performance for correlation when including the temperature dependency of autotrophic respiration. This increase in temporal dynamic is largest for regions outside the tropics. For error and bias, the results are regionally diverse and are compensated in the global average. On interannual time scales, estimates of the VOD-GPP model agree well with GPP from FLUXCOM and MODIS. We further find that the residuals between VOD-based GPP estimates and the other data sets do not significantly correlate with SPEI which demonstrates that the VOD- GPP model can capture responses of GPP to water availability even without including additional information on precipitation, soil moisture or evapotranspiration. However, some regions reveal significant correlations between VOD-GPP residuals with SPEI, which may indicate different plant strategies for dealing with variations in water availability. Overall, our findings support the robustness of global microwave-derived estimates of gross primary production for large-scale studies on climate-vegetation interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal and longer-term dynamics of fuel accumulation affect fire seasonality and the occurrence of extreme wildfires. Failure to account for their influence may help to explain why state-of-the-art fire models do not simulate the length and timing of the fire season or interannual variability in burnt area well. We investigated the impact of accounting for different timescales of fuel production and accumulation on burnt area using a suite of random forest regression models that included the immediate impact of climate, vegetation, and human influences in a given month, and tested the impact of various combinations of antecedent conditions in four productivity-related vegetation indices and in antecedent moisture conditions. Analyses were conducted for the period from 2010 to 2015 inclusive. We showed that the inclusion of antecedent vegetation conditions on timescales > 1 yr had no impact on burnt area, but inclusion of antecedent vegetation conditions representing fuel build-up led to an improvement of the global, climatological out-of-sample R² from 0.567 to 0.686. The inclusion of antecedent moisture conditions also improved the simulation of burnt area through its influence on fuel build-up, which is additional to the influence of current moisture levels on fuel drying. The length of the period which needs to be considered to account for fuel build-up varies across biomes; fuel-limited regions are sensitive to antecedent conditions over longer time periods (~4 months) and moisture-limited regions are more sensitive to current conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we use simulations from seven global vegetation models to provide the first multi‐model estimate of fire impacts on global tree cover and the carbon cycle under current climate and anthropogenic land use conditions, averaged for the years 2001–2012. Fire globally reduces the tree covered area and vegetation carbon storage by 10%. Regionally, the effects are much stronger, up to 20% for certain latitudinal bands, and 17% in savanna regions. Global fire effects on total carbon storage and carbon turnover times are lower with the effect on gross primary productivity (GPP) close to 0. We find the strongest impacts of fire in savanna regions. Climatic conditions in regions with the highest burned area differ from regions with highest absolute fire impact, which are characterized by higher precipitation. Our estimates of fire‐induced vegetation change are lower than previous studies. We attribute these differences to different definitions of vegetation change and effects of anthropogenic land use, which were not considered in previous studies and decreases the impact of fire on tree cover. Accounting for fires significantly improves the spatial patterns of simulated tree cover, which demonstrates the need to represent fire in dynamic vegetation models. Based upon comparisons between models and observations, process understanding and representation in models, we assess a higher confidence in the fire impact on tree cover and vegetation carbon compared to GPP, total carbon storage and turnover times. We have higher confidence in the spatial patterns compared to the global totals of the simulated fire impact. As we used an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art fire models, including effects of land use and the ensemble median or mean compares better to observational datasets than any individual model, we consider the here presented results to be the current best estimate of global fire effects on ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the late 1970s, space-borne microwave radiometers have been providing measurements of radiation emitted by the Earth's surface. From these measurements it is possible to derive vegetation optical depth (VOD), a model-based indicator related to the density, biomass, and water content of vegetation. Because of its high temporal resolution and long availability, VOD can be used to monitor short- to long-term changes in vegetation. However, studying long-term VOD dynamics is generally hampered by the relatively short time span covered by the individual microwave sensors. This can potentially be overcome by merging multiple VOD products into a single climate data record. However, combining multiple sensors into a single product is challenging as systematic differences between input products like biases, different temporal and spatial resolutions, and coverage need to be overcome. Here, we present a new series of long-term VOD products, the VOD Climate Archive (VODCA). VODCA combines VOD retrievals that have been derived from multiple sensors (SSM/I, TMI, AMSR-E, WindSat, and AMSR2) using the Land Parameter Retrieval Model. We produce separate VOD products for microwave observations in different spectral bands, namely the Ku-band (period 1987–2017), X-band (1997–2018), and C-band (2002–2018). In this way, our multi-band VOD products preserve the unique characteristics of each frequency with respect to the structural elements of the canopy. Our merging approach builds on an existing approach that is used to merge satellite products of surface soil moisture: first, the data sets are co-calibrated via cumulative distribution function matching using AMSR-E as the scaling reference. To do so, we apply a new matching technique that scales outliers more robustly than ordinary piecewise linear interpolation. Second, we aggregate the data sets by taking the arithmetic mean between temporally overlapping observations of the scaled data. The characteristics of VODCA are assessed for self-consistency and against other products. Using an autocorrelation analysis, we show that the merging of the multiple data sets successfully reduces the random error compared to the input data sets. Spatio-temporal patterns and anomalies of the merged products show consistency between frequencies and with leaf area index observations from the MODIS instrument as well as with Vegetation Continuous Fields from the AVHRR instruments. Long-term trends in Ku-band VODCA show that since 1987 there has been a decline in VOD in the tropics and in large parts of east-central and north Asia, while a substantial increase is observed in India, large parts of Australia, southern Africa, southeastern China, and central North America. In summary, VODCA shows vast potential for monitoring spatial–temporal ecosystem changes as it is sensitive to vegetation water content and unaffected by cloud cover or high sun zenith angles. As such, it complements existing long-term optical indices of greenness and leaf area. The VODCA products are open access and available under Attribution 4.0 International at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2575599. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation fires influence global vegetation distribution, ecosystem functioning, and global carbon cycling. Specifically in South America, changes in fire occurrence together with land-use change accelerate ecosystem fragmentation and increase the vulnerability of tropical forests and savannas to climate change. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are valuable tools to estimate the effects of fire on ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling under future climate changes. However, most fire-enabled DGVMs have problems in capturing the magnitude, spatial patterns, and temporal dynamics of burned area as observed by satellites. As fire is controlled by the interplay of weather conditions, vegetation properties, and human activities, fire modules in DGVMs can be improved in various aspects. In this study we focus on improving the controls of climate and hence fuel moisture content on fire danger in the LPJmL4-SPITFIRE DGVM in South America, especially for the Brazilian fire-prone biomes of Caatinga and Cerrado. We therefore test two alternative model formulations (standard Nesterov Index and a newly implemented water vapor pressure deficit) for climate effects on fire danger within a formal model–data integration setup where we estimate model parameters against satellite datasets of burned area (GFED4) and aboveground biomass of trees. Our results show that the optimized model improves the representation of spatial patterns and the seasonal to interannual dynamics of burned area especially in the Cerrado and Caatinga regions. In addition, the model improves the simulation of aboveground biomass and the spatial distribution of plant functional types (PFTs). We obtained the best results by using the water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) for the calculation of fire danger. The VPD includes, in comparison to the Nesterov Index, a representation of the air humidity and the vegetation density. This work shows the successful application of a systematic model–data integration setup, as well as the integration of a new fire danger formulation, in order to optimize a process-based fire-enabled DGVM. It further highlights the potential of this approach to achieve a new level of accuracy in comprehensive global fire modeling and prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the late 1970s, spaceborne microwave sensors have been providing measurements of radiation emitted by the Earth's surface. From these measurements it is possible to derive vegetation optical depth (VOD), a model-based indicator related to vegetation density and its relative water content. Because of its high temporal resolution and long availability, VOD can be used to monitor short- to long-term changes in vegetation. However, studying long-term VOD dynamics is generally hampered by the relatively short time span covered by the individual microwave sensors. This can potentially be overcome by merging multiple VOD products into a single climate data record. But, combining multiple sensors into a single product is challenging as systematic differences between input products, e.g. biases, different temporal and spatial resolutions and coverage, need to be overcome. Here, we present a new series of long-term VOD products, which combine multiple VOD data sets derived from several sensors (SSM/I, TMI, AMSR-E, Windsat, and AMSR-2) using the Land Parameter Retrieval Model. We produce separate VOD products for microwave observations in different spectral bands, namely Ku-band (period 1987–2017), X-band (1997–2018), and C-band (2002–2018). In this way, our multi-band VOD products preserve the unique characteristics of each frequency with respect to the structural elements of the canopy. Our approach to merge the single-sensor VOD products is similar to the one of the ESA CCI Soil Moisture products (Liu et al., 2012; Dorigo et al., 2017): First, the data sets are co-calibrated via cumulative distribution function matching using AMSR-E as scaling reference. We apply a new matching technique that scales outliers more robustly than ordinary piece-wise linear interpolation. Second, we aggregate the data sets by taking the arithmetic mean between temporally overlapping observations of the scaled data, generating a VOD Climate Archive (VODCA). The characteristics of VODCA are assessed for self-consistency and against other products: spatio-temporal patterns and anomalies of the merged products show consistency between frequencies and both with observations of Leaf Area Index derived from the MODIS instrument as well as Vegetation Continuous Fields from AVHRR instruments. Trend analysis shows that since 1987 there has been a decline in VOD in the tropics and in large parts parts of east-central and north Asia along with a strong increase in India, large parts of Australia, south Africa, southeastern China and central north America. Using an autocorrelation analysis, we show that the merging of the multiple data sets successfully reduces the random error compared to the input data sets. In summary, VODCA shows vast potential for monitoring spatio-temporal ecosystem behaviour complementary to existing long-term vegetation products from optical remote sensing. The VODCA products (Moesinger et al., 2019) are open access and available under Attribution 4.0 International at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2575599. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climate changes have increased fire-prone weather conditions in many regions and have likely affected fire occurrence, which might impact ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and society. Prediction of how fire impacts may change in the future is difficult because of the complexity of the controls on fire occurrence and burned area. Here we aim to assess how process-based fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) represent relationships between controlling factors and burned area. We developed a pattern-oriented model evaluation approach using the random forest (RF) algorithm to identify emergent relationships between climate, vegetation, and socio-economic predictor variables and burned area. We applied this approach to monthly burned area time series for the period from 2005 to 2011 from satellite observations and from DGVMs from the "Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project" (FireMIP) that were run using a common protocol and forcing data sets. The satellite-derived relationships indicate strong sensitivity to climate variables (e.g. maximum temperature, number of wet days), vegetation properties (e.g. vegetation type, previous-season plant productivity and leaf area, woody litter), and to socio-economic variables (e.g. human population density). DGVMs broadly reproduce the relationships with climate variables and, for some models, with population density. Interestingly, satellite-derived responses show a strong increase in burned area with an increase in previous-season leaf area index and plant productivity in most fire-prone ecosystems, which was largely underestimated by most DGVMs. Hence, our pattern-oriented model evaluation approach allowed us to diagnose that vegetation effects on fire are a main deficiency regarding fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models' ability to accurately simulate the role of fire under global environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climate changes increases fire-prone weather conditions and likely affects fire occurrence, which might impact ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and society. Prediction of how fire impacts may change in the future is difficult because of the complexity of the controls on fire occurrence and burned area. Here we aim to assess how process-based fire-enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) represent relationships between controlling factors and burned area. We developed a pattern-oriented model evaluation approach using the random forest (RF) algorithm to identify emergent relationships between climate, vegetation, and socioeconomic predictor variables and burned area. We applied this approach to monthly burned area time series for the period 2005-2011 from satellite observations and from DGVMs from the Fire Model Inter-comparison Project (FireMIP) that were run using a common protocol and forcing datasets. The satellite-derived relationships indicate strong sensitivity to climate variables (e.g. maximum temperature, number of wet days), vegetation properties (e.g. vegetation type, previous-season plant productivity and leaf area, woody litter), and to socioeconomic variables (e.g. human population density). DGVMs broadly reproduce the relationships to climate variables and some models to population density. Interestingly, satellite-derived responses show a strong increase of burned area with previous-season leaf area index and plant productivity in most fire-prone ecosystems which was largely underestimated by most DGVMs. Hence our pattern-oriented model evaluation approach allowed to diagnose that current fire-enabled DGVMs represent some controls on fire to a large extent but processes linking vegetation productivity and fire occurrence need to be improved to accurately simulate the role of fire under global environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, agricultural production, and the water and carbon cycle. Different versions of the model have been developed and applied to evaluate the role of natural and managed ecosystems in the Earth system and the potential impacts of global environmental change. A comprehensive model description of the new model version, LPJmL4, is provided in a companion paper (Schaphoff et al., 2018c). Here, we provide a full picture of the model performance, going beyond standard benchmark procedures and give hints on the strengths and shortcomings of the model to identify the need for further model improvement. Specifically, we evaluate LPJmL4 against various datasets from in situ measurement sites, satellite observations, and agricultural yield statistics. We apply a range of metrics to evaluate the quality of the model to simulate stocks and flows of carbon and water in natural and managed ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales. We show that an advanced phenology scheme improves the simulation of seasonal fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, while the permafrost scheme improves estimates of carbon stocks. The full LPJmL4 code including the new developments will be supplied open source through https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL. We hope that this will lead to new model developments and applications that improve the model performance and possibly build up a new understanding of the terrestrial biosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates - internally consistently - the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. However, the climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that control global fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood, and in various complexities and formulations are represented in global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. Data-driven model approaches such as machine learning algorithms have successfully been used to identify and better understand controlling factors for fire activity. However, such machine learning models cannot be easily adapted or even implemented within processoriented global vegetation-fire models. To overcome this gap between machine learning-based approaches and processoriented global fire models, we introduce a new flexible datadriven fire modelling approach here (Satellite Observations to predict FIre Activity, SOFIA approach version 1). SOFIA models can use several predictor variables and functional relationships to estimate burned area that can be easily adapted with more complex process-oriented vegetation-fire models. We created an ensemble of SOFIA models to test the importance of several predictor variables. SOFIA models result in the highest performance in predicting burned area if they account for a direct restriction of fire activity under wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent restriction or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. We further analyse spatial patterns of the sensitivity between anthropogenic, climate, and vegetation predictor variables and burned area. We finally discuss how multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with data-driven modelling and model-data integration approaches can guide the future development of global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land-use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, the water and carbon cycle and on agricultural production. Different versions of the model have been developed and applied to evaluate the role of natural and managed ecosystems in the Earth system and potential impacts of global environmental change. A comprehensive model description of the new model version, LPJmL4, is provided in a companion paper (Schaphoff et al., submitted). Here, we provide a full picture of the model performance, going beyond standard benchmark procedures, give hints of the strengths and shortcomings of the model to identify the need of further model improvement. Specifically, we evaluate LPJmL4 against various datasets from in-situ measurement sites, satellite observations, and agricultural yield statistics. We apply a range of metrics to evaluate the quality of the model to simulate stocks and flows of carbon and water in natural and managed ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales. We show that an advanced phenology scheme improves the simulation of seasonal fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration while the permafrost scheme improves estimates of carbon stocks. The full LPJmL4 code including the new developments will be supplied Open Source through a Gitlab repository. We hope that this will lead to new model developments and applications that improve model performance and possibly build up a new understanding of the terrestrial biosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates - internally consistently - the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation in direct coupling with water and carbon fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within, and impacts upon, the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land-use change. Here we describe the core model structure including recently eveloped modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby we also summarize LPJmL model developments and evaluations (based on 34 earlier publications focused e.g. on improved representations of crop types, human and ecological water demand, and permafrost) and model applications (82 papers, e.g. on historical and future climate change impacts) since its first description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at a Gitlab server, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities, not least in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem water-use efficiency ( WUE) is an important metric linking the global land carbon and water cycles. Eddy covariance-based estimates of WUE in temperate/boreal forests have recently been found to show a strong and unexpected increase over the 1992-2010 period, which has been attributed to the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on plant physiology., To test this hypothesis, we forced the observed trend in the process-based land surface model JSBACH by increasing the sensitivity of stomatal conductance ( gs) to atmospheric CO2 concentration. We compared the simulated continental discharge, evapotranspiration ( ET), and the seasonal CO2 exchange with observations across the extratropical northern hemisphere., The increased simulated WUE led to substantial changes in surface hydrology at the continental scale, including a significant decrease in ET and a significant increase in continental runoff, both of which are inconsistent with large-scale observations. The simulated seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 decreased over time, in contrast to the observed upward trend across ground-based measurement sites., Our results provide strong indications that the recent, large-scale WUE trend is considerably smaller than that estimated for these forest ecosystems. They emphasize the decreasing CO2 sensitivity of WUE with increasing scale, which affects the physiological interpretation of changes in ecosystem WUE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. In particular, extreme fire conditions can cause devastating impacts on ecosystems and human society and dominate the year-to-year variability in global fire emissions. However, the climatic, environmental and socioeconomic factors that control fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood and consequently it is unclear which components, structures, and complexities are required in global vegetation/fire models to accurately predict fire activity at a global scale. Here we introduce the SOFIA (Satellite Observations for FIre Activity) modelling approach, which integrates several satellite and climate datasets and different empirical model structures to systematically identify required structural components in global vegetation/fire models to predict burned area. Models result in the highest performance in predicting the spatial patterns and temporal variability of burned area if they account for a direct suppression of fire activity at wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent suppression or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of new vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. The SOFIA approach implements and confirms conceptual models where fire activity follows a biomass gradient and is modulated by moisture conditions. The use of datasets on population density or socioeconomic development do not improve model performances, which indicates that the complex interactions of human fire usage and management cannot be realistically represented by such datasets. However, the best SOFIA models outperform a highly flexible machine learning approach and the state-of-the art global process-oriented vegetation/fire model JSBACH-SPITFIRE. Our results suggest using multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with model-data integration approaches to guide the future development of global process-oriented vegetation/fire models and to better understand the interactions between fire and hydrological, ecological, and atmospheric Earth system components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]