Search

The University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter (HARP2) will be on board NASA's Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission, scheduled for launch in January 2024. In this study we systematically evaluate the retrievability and uncertainty of aerosol and ocean parameters from HARP2 multi-angle polarimeter (MAP) measurements. To reduce the computational demand of MAP-based retrievals and maximize data processing throughput, we developed improved neural network (NN) forward models for spaceborne HARP2 measurements over a coupled atmosphere and ocean system within the FastMAPOL retrieval algorithm. To this end, a cascading retrieval scheme is implemented in FastMAPOL, which leverages a series of NN models of varying size, speed, and accuracy to optimize performance. Two sets of NN models are used for reflectance and polarization, respectively. A full day of global synthetic HARP2 data was generated and used to test various retrieval parameters including aerosol microphysical and optical properties, aerosol layer height, ocean surface wind speed, and ocean chlorophyll a concentration. To assess retrieval quality, pixel-wise retrieval uncertainties were derived from error propagation and evaluated against the difference between the retrieval parameters and truth based on a Monte Carlo method. We found that the fine-mode aerosol properties can be retrieved well from the HARP2 data, though the coarse-mode aerosol properties are more uncertain. Larger uncertainties are associated with a reduced number of available viewing angles, which typically occur near the scan edge of the HARP2 instrument. Results of the performance assessment demonstrate that the algorithm is a viable approach for operational application to HARP2 data after the PACE launch.

The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is of vital importance given the coastal and societal implications of ice loss, with a potential to raise sea level by up to 58 m if it melts entirely. However, future ice-sheet trajectories remain highly uncertain. One of the main sources of uncertainty is related to nonlinear processes and feedbacks between the ice sheet and the Earth System on different timescales. Due to these feedbacks and ice-sheet inertia, ice loss may already be triggered in the next decades or centuries and will then unfold thereafter on timescales on the order of multiple centuries to millennia. This committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is not reflected in typical sea-level projections based on mass balance changes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which often cover decadal-to-centennial timescales. Here, using two ice-sheet models, we systematically assess the long-term multi-millennial sea-level commitment from Antarctica in response to warming projected over the next centuries under low- and high-emission pathways. This allows us to bring together the time horizon of stakeholder planning and the much longer response times of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our results show that warming levels representative of the lower-emission pathway, SSP1-2.6, may already result in an Antarctic mass loss of up to 6 m of sea-level equivalent on multi-millennial timescales. This committed mass loss is due to a strong grounding-line retreat in the West Antarctic Amundsen Sea embayment as well as potential drainage from the Ross Ice Shelf catchment and onset of ice loss from Wilkes subglacial basin in East Antarctica. Beyond the warming levels reached by the end of this century under the higher-emission trajectory, SSP5-8.5, a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is triggered in the entire ensemble of simulations from both ice-sheet models. Under enhanced warming, next to ice loss from the marine subglacial basins, we also find a substantial decline in ice volume grounded above sea level in East Antarctica. Over the next millennia, this gives rise to a sea-level increase of up to 40 m in our simulations, stressing the importance of including the committed Antarctic sea-level contribution in future projections.

Tipping elements, including the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), are Earth system components that could reach critical thresholds due to anthropogenic emissions. Increasing our understanding of past warm climates can help to elucidate the future contribution of the AIS to emissions. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ∼ 3.3–3.0 million years ago) serves as an ideal benchmark experiment. During this period, CO2 levels were similar to the present day (PD; 350–450 ppmv), but global mean temperatures were 2.5–4.0 K higher. Sea level reconstructions from that time indicate a rise of 5–25 m compared to the present, highlighting the potential crossing of tipping points in Antarctica. In order to achieve a sea level contribution far beyond 10 m, not only the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) needs to largely decrease, but a significant response in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is also required. A key question in reconstructions and simulations is therefore which of the AIS basins retreated during the mPWP. In this study, we investigate how the AIS responds to climatic and bedrock conditions during the mPWP. To this end, we use the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), general circulation model ensemble to force a higher-order ice sheet model. Our simulations reveal that the WAIS experiences collapse with a 0.5 K oceanic warming. The Wilkes Basin shows retreat at 3 K oceanic warming, although higher precipitation rates could mitigate such a retreat. Totten Glacier shows slight signs of retreats only under high-oceanic warming conditions (greater than 4 K oceanic anomaly). If only the WAIS collapses, we simulate a mean contribution of 2.7 to 7.0 ms.l.e. (metres of sea level equivalent). If, in addition, the Wilkes Basin retreats, our simulations suggest a mean contribution of 6.0 to 8.9 ms.l.e. Besides uncertainties related to the climate forcing, we also examine other sources of uncertainty related to initial ice thickness and ice dynamics. We find that the climatologies yield a higher uncertainty than the dynamical configuration if parameters are constrained with PD observations and that starting from Pliocene reconstructions leads to smaller ice sheet configurations due to the hysteresis behaviour of marine bedrocks. Ultimately, our study concludes that marine ice cliff instability is not a prerequisite for the retreat of the Wilkes Basin. Instead, a significant rise in oceanic temperatures can initiate such a retreat.

We use an observationally calibrated ice-sheet model to investigate the future trajectory of the Antarctic ice sheet related to uncertainties in the future balance between sub-shelf melting and ice discharge, on the one hand, and the surface mass balance, on the other. Our ensemble of simulations, forced by a panel of climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), suggests that the ocean will be the primary driver of short-term Antarctic mass loss, initiating ice loss in West Antarctica already during this century. The atmosphere initially plays a mitigating role through increased snowfall, leading to an Antarctic contribution to global mean sea-level rise by 2100 of 6 (−8 to 15) cm under a low-emission scenario and 5.5 (−10 to 16) cm under a very high-emission scenario. However, under the very high-emission pathway, the influence of the atmosphere shifts beyond the end of the century, becoming an amplifying driver of mass loss as the ice sheet's surface mass balance decreases. We show that this transition occurs when Antarctic near-surface warming exceeds a critical threshold of +7.5 ∘C, at which the increase in surface runoff outweighs the increase in snow accumulation, a signal that is amplified by the melt–elevation feedback. Therefore, under the very high-emission scenario, oceanic and atmospheric drivers are projected to result in a complete collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet along with significant grounding-line retreat in the marine basins of the East Antarctic ice sheet, leading to a median global mean sea-level rise of 2.75 (6.95) m by 2300 (3000). Under a more sustainable socio-economic pathway, we find that the Antarctic ice sheet may still contribute to a median global mean sea-level rise of 0.62 (1.85) m by 2300 (3000). However, the rate of sea-level rise is significantly reduced as mass loss is likely to remain confined to the Amundsen Sea Embayment, where present-day climate conditions seem sufficient to commit to a continuous retreat of Thwaites Glacier.

The Antarctic ice sheet's future contribution to sea level rise is difficult to predict, mostly because of the uncertainty and variability of the surface mass balance (SMB). Ice cores are used to locally (kilometer scale) reconstruct SMB with a very good temporal resolution (up to sub-annual), especially in coastal areas where accumulation rates are high. The number of ice core records has been increasing in recent years, revealing an important spatial variability and different trends of SMB, highlighting the crucial need for greater spatial and temporal representativeness. We present records of density, water stable isotopes (δ18O, δD, and deuterium excess), major ions concentrations (Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, MSA, Cl−, SO42-, and NO3-), and continuous electrical conductivity measurement (ECM), as well as age models and resulting surface mass balance from the top 120 m of two ice cores (FK17 and TIR18) drilled on two adjacent ice rises located in coastal Dronning Maud Land and dating back to the end of the 18th century. Both environmental proxies and SMB show contrasting behaviors, suggesting strong spatial and temporal variability at the regional scale. In terms of precipitation proxies, both ice cores show a long-term decrease in deuterium excess (d-excess) and a long-term increase in δ18O, although less pronounced. In terms of chemical proxies, the non-sea-salt sulfate (nssSO42-) concentrations of FK17 are twice those of TIR18 and display an increasing trend on the long-term, whereas there is only a small increase after 1950 in TIR18. The SO42-/Na+ ratios show a similar contrast between FK17 and TIR18 and are consistently higher than the seawater ratio, indicating a dominant impact of the nssSO42- on the SO42- signature. The mean long-term SMB is similar for FK17 and TIR18 (0.57 ± 0.05 and 0.56 ± 0.05 mi.e.yr-1, respectively), but the annual records are very different: since the 1950s, TIR18 shows a continuous decrease while FK17 has shown an increasing trend until 1995 followed by a recent decrease. The datasets presented here offer numerous development possibilities for the interpretation of the different paleo-profiles and for addressing the mechanisms behind the spatial and temporal variability observed at the regional scale (tens of kilometers) in East Antarctica. The “Mass2Ant IceCores” datasets are available on Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7848435; Wauthy et al., 2023).

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

One of the key components of this research has been the mapping of Antarctic bed topography and ice thickness parameters that are crucial for modelling ice flow and hence for predicting future ice loss and the ensuing sea level rise. Supported by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), the Bedmap3 Action Group aims not only to produce new gridded maps of ice thickness and bed topography for the international scientific community, but also to standardize and make available all the geophysical survey data points used in producing the Bedmap gridded products. Here, we document the survey data used in the latest iteration, Bedmap3, incorporating and adding to all of the datasets previously used for Bedmap1 and Bedmap2, including ice bed, surface and thickness point data from all Antarctic geophysical campaigns since the 1950s. More specifically, we describe the processes used to standardize and make these and future surveys and gridded datasets accessible under the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) data principles. With the goals of making the gridding process reproducible and allowing scientists to re-use the data freely for their own analysis, we introduce the new SCAR Bedmap Data Portal (https://bedmap.scar.org, last access: 1 March 2023) created to provide unprecedented open access to these important datasets through a web-map interface. We believe that this data release will be a valuable asset to Antarctic research and will greatly extend the life cycle of the data held within it. Data are available from the UK Polar Data Centre: https://data.bas.ac.uk (last access: 5 May 2023​​​​​​​). See the Data availability section for the complete list of datasets.

Major uncertainties in the response of ice sheets to environmental forcing are due to subglacial processes. These processes pertain to the type of sliding or friction law as well as the spatial and temporal evolution of the effective pressure at the base of ice sheets. We evaluate the classic Weertman–Budd sliding law for different power exponents (viscous to near plastic) and for different representations of effective pressure at the base of the ice sheet, commonly used for hard and soft beds. The sensitivity of the above slip laws is evaluated for the Antarctic ice sheet in two types of experiments: (i) the ABUMIP experiments in which ice shelves are instantaneously removed, leading to rapid grounding-line retreat and ice sheet collapse, and (ii) the ISMIP6 experiments with realistic ocean and atmosphere forcings for different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Results confirm earlier work that the power in the sliding law is the most determining factor in the sensitivity of the ice sheet to climatic forcing, where a higher power in the sliding law leads to increased mass loss for a given forcing. Here we show that spatial and temporal changes in water pressure or water flux at the base modulate basal sliding for a given power, especially for high-end scenarios, such as ABUMIP. In particular, subglacial models depending on subglacial water pressure decrease effective pressure significantly near the grounding line, leading to an increased sensitivity to climatic forcing for a given power in the sliding law. This dependency is, however, less clear under realistic forcing scenarios (ISMIP6).

Abstract Background Natalizumab and fingolimod are used as high-efficacy treatments in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis. Several observational studies comparing these two drugs have shown variable results, using different methods to control treatment indication bias and manage censoring. The objective of this empirical study was to elucidate the impact of methods of causal inference on the results of comparative effectiveness studies. Methods Data from three observational multiple sclerosis registries (MSBase, the Danish MS Registry and French OFSEP registry) were combined. Four clinical outcomes were studied. Propensity scores were used to match or weigh the compared groups, allowing for estimating average treatment effect for treated or average treatment effect for the entire population. Analyses were conducted both in intention-to-treat and per-protocol frameworks. The impact of the positivity assumption was also assessed. Results Overall, 5,148 relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis patients were included. In this well-powered sample, the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates overlapped widely. Propensity scores weighting and propensity scores matching procedures led to consistent results. Some differences were observed between average treatment effect for the entire population and average treatment effect for treated estimates. Intention-to-treat analyses were more conservative than per-protocol analyses. The most pronounced irregularities in outcomes and propensity scores were introduced by violation of the positivity assumption. Conclusions This applied study elucidates the influence of methodological decisions on the results of comparative effectiveness studies of treatments for multiple sclerosis. According to our results, there are no material differences between conclusions obtained with propensity scores matching or propensity scores weighting given that a study is sufficiently powered, models are correctly specified and positivity assumption is fulfilled.

Abstract Background Hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia is the most common cause of severe and persistent hypoglycemia in neonates and children. It is a heterogeneous condition with dysregulated insulin secretion, which persists in the presence of low blood glucose levels. Case presentation We report a case of a 15 year-old male with hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia, who underwent a subtotal pancreatectomy after inadequate response to medical therapy. Pathological examination was positive for nesidioblastosis (diffuse β-cell hyperplasia by H-E and immunohistochemical techniques). The patient’s blood glucose levels normalized after surgery and he remains asymptomatic after 1 year of follow-up. The systematic review allowed us to identify 41 adolescents from a total of 205 cases reported in 22 manuscripts, from a total of 454 found in the original search done in PubMed and Lilacs. Conclusions Although very well reported in children, hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia can occur in adolescents or young adults, as it happens in our reported case. These patients can be seen, treated and reported by pediatricians or adult teams either way due to the wide age range used to define adolescence. Most of them do not respond to medical treatment, and subtotal distal pancreatectomy has become the elected procedure with excellent long-term response in the vast majority.

We introduce PARASO, a novel five-component fully coupled regional climate model over an Antarctic circumpolar domain covering the full Southern Ocean. The state-of-the-art models used are the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model (f.ETISh) v1.7 (ice sheet), the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) v3.6 (ocean), the Louvain-la-Neuve sea-ice model (LIM) v3.6 (sea ice), the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) model v5.0 (atmosphere) and its CLimate Mode (CLM) v4.5 (land), which are here run at a horizontal resolution close to 1/4∘. One key feature of this tool resides in a novel two-way coupling interface for representing ocean–ice-sheet interactions, through explicitly resolved ice-shelf cavities. The impact of atmospheric processes on the Antarctic ice sheet is also conveyed through computed COSMO-CLM–f.ETISh surface mass exchange. In this technical paper, we briefly introduce each model's configuration and document the developments that were carried out in order to establish PARASO. The new offline-based NEMO–f.ETISh coupling interface is thoroughly described. Our developments also include a new surface tiling approach to combine open-ocean and sea-ice-covered cells within COSMO, which was required to make this model relevant in the context of coupled simulations in polar regions. We present results from a 2000–2001 coupled 2-year experiment. PARASO is numerically stable and fully operational. The 2-year simulation conducted without fine tuning of the model reproduced the main expected features, although remaining systematic biases provide perspectives for further adjustment and development.

Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) is a long‐lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process‐based models. However, risk‐averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high‐end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high‐end scenarios. High‐end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1‐2.6) relative to pre‐industrial values our high‐end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5‐8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long‐term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi‐meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high‐end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high‐end SLR.

About 20 % of all snow accumulation in Antarctica occurs on the ice shelves. There, ice rises control the spatial surface mass balance (SMB) distribution by inducing snowfall variability and wind erosion due to their topography. Moreover these ice rises buttress the ice flow and represent ideal drilling locations for ice cores. In this study we assess the connection between snowfall variability and wind erosion to provide a better understanding of how ice rises impact SMB variability, how well this is captured in the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 and the implications of this SMB variability for ice rises as an ice core drilling site. By combining ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiles from two ice rises in Dronning Maud Land with ice core dating, we reconstruct spatial and temporal SMB variations from 1983 to 2018 and compare the observed SMB with output from RACMO2 and SnowModel. Our results show snowfall-driven differences of up to 1.5 times higher SMB on the windward side of both ice rises than on the leeward side as well as a local erosion-driven minimum at the ice divide of the ice rises. RACMO2 captures the snowfall-driven differences but overestimates their magnitude, whereas the erosion on the peak can be reproduced by SnowModel with RACMO2 forcing. Observed temporal variability of the average SMBs, retrieved from the GPR data for four time intervals in the 1983–2018 range, are low at the peak of the easternmost ice rise (∼0.06 mw.e.yr-1), while they are higher (∼0.09 mw.e.yr-1) on the windward side of the ice rise. This implies that at the peak of the ice rise, higher snowfall, driven by orographic uplift, is balanced out by local erosion. As a consequence of this, the SMB recovered from the ice core matches the SMB from the GPR at the peak of the ice rise but not at the windward side of the ice rise, suggesting that the SMB signal is damped in the ice core.

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Estimating the contribution of marine ice sheets to sea-level rise is complicated by ice grounded below sea level that is replaced by ocean water when melted. The common approach is to only consider the ice volume above floatation, defined as the volume of ice to be removed from an ice column to become afloat. With isostatic adjustment of the bedrock and external sea-level forcing that is not a result of mass changes of the ice sheet under consideration, this approach breaks down, because ice volume above floatation can be modified without actual changes in the sea-level contribution. We discuss a consistent and generalised approach for estimating the sea-level contribution from marine ice sheets.

The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

Ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to become the major contributor to sea level in the next centuries. Projections of the AIS response to climate change based on numerical ice-sheet models remain challenging due to the complexity of physical processes involved in ice-sheet dynamics, including instability mechanisms that can destabilise marine basins with retrograde slopes. Moreover, uncertainties in ice-sheet models limit the ability to provide accurate sea-level rise projections. Here, we apply probabilistic methods to a hybrid ice-sheet model to investigate the influence of several sources of uncertainty, namely sources of uncertainty in atmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation, calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology and bedrock relaxation, on the continental response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change over the next millennium. We provide probabilistic projections of sea-level rise and grounding-line retreat, and we carry out stochastic sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential sources of uncertainty. We find that all investigated sources of uncertainty, except bedrock relaxation time, contribute to the uncertainty in the projections. We show that the sensitivity of the projections to uncertainties increases and the contribution of the uncertainty in sub-shelf melting to the uncertainty in the projections becomes more and more dominant as atmospheric and oceanic temperatures rise, with a contribution to the uncertainty in sea-level rise projections that goes from 5 % to 25 % in RCP 2.6 to more than 90 % in RCP 8.5. We show that the significance of the AIS contribution to sea level is controlled by the marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) in marine basins, with the biggest contribution stemming from the more vulnerable West Antarctic ice sheet. We find that, irrespective of parametric uncertainty, the strongly mitigated RCP 2.6 scenario prevents the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, that in both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios the occurrence of MISI in marine basins is more sensitive to parametric uncertainty, and that, almost irrespective of parametric uncertainty, RCP 8.5 triggers the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Abstract Background Nitrous oxide has a proven clinical efficacy in conscious sedation. At certain environmental concentrations it may pose a health risk to chronically exposed healthcare workers. The present pilot study aims at evaluating the exposure to nitrous oxide of dental ambulatory personnel of a pediatric hospital. Methods A descriptive study design was conducted in two phases: a bibliographic analysis on the environmental safety policies and a gas concentration analysis in the dental ambulatories of a pediatric hospital, detected every 6 months from December 2013 to February 2017 according to law provisions. The surveys were carried out using for gas analysis a photoacoustic spectrometer Innova-B&K “Multi-gas monitor model 1312” and Innova-B&K “Multi-sampler model 1309”. The biological analysis and monitoring have been carried out on staff urine. Results The analyses were performed during 11 dental outpatient sessions on pediatric patients. All the patients were submitted to the same dental procedures, conservative care and dental extractions. The pediatric patients were 47 (23 males, 24 females; age range 3–17 years; mean age 6,63, SD ± 2,69) for a mean of 4,27 (SD ± 1,49) per session., The mean environmental concentration of nitrous oxide during the sessions was 24.7 ppm (SD ±16,16). A correlation was found between urinary nitrous oxide concentration of dentists (Pearson’s correlation 0.786; p = 0.007) and dental assistants urines (Pearson’s correlation 0.918; p

To resolve the mechanisms behind the major climate reorganisation, which occurred between 0.9 and 1.2 Ma, the recovery of a suitable 1.5 million-year-old ice core is fundamental. The quest for an Oldest Ice core requires a number of key boundary conditions, of which the poorly known basal geothermal heat flux (GHF) is lacking. We use a transient thermodynamical 1-D vertical model that solves for the rate of change of temperature in the vertical, with surface temperature and modelled GHF as boundary conditions. For each point on the ice sheet, the model is forced with variations in atmospheric conditions over the last 2 Ma and modelled ice-thickness variations. The process is repeated for a range of GHF values to determine the value of GHF that marks the limit between frozen and melting conditions over the whole ice sheet, taking into account 2 Ma of climate history. These threshold values of GHF are statistically compared to existing GHF data sets. The new probabilistic GHF fields obtained for the ice sheet thus provide the missing boundary conditions in the search for Oldest Ice. High spatial resolution radar data are examined locally in the Dome Fuji and Dome C regions, as these represent the ice core community's primary drilling sites. GHF, bedrock variability, ice thickness and other essential criteria combined highlight a dozen major potential Oldest Ice sites in the vicinity of Dome Fuji and Dome C, where GHF could allow for Oldest Ice.

A key objective in palaeo-climatology is the retrieval of a continuous Antarctic ice-core record dating back 1.5 Ma. The identification of a suitable Antarctic site requires sufficient knowledge of the subglacial landscape beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here, we present new ice thickness information from the Dome Fuji region, East Antarctica, based on airborne radar surveys conducted during the 2014/15 and 2016/17 southern summers. Compared to previous maps of the region, the new dataset shows a more complex landscape with networks of valleys and mountain plateaus. We use the new dataset as input in a thermokinematic model that incorporates uncertainties in geothermal heat flux values in order to improve the predictions of potential ice-core sites. Our results show that especially the region immediately south of Dome Fuji station persists as a good candidate site for obtaining an old ice core. An initial assessment of basal conditions revealed the existence of what appears to be subglacial lakes. Further radar data analysis shows overall high continuity of layer stratigraphy in the region. This indicates that extending the age–depth information from the Dome Fuji ice core to a new ice-core drill site is a viable option.

Abstract Background The purpose of this paper is to systematically review the literature with respect to stakeholder views of selection methods for medical school admissions. Methods An electronic search of nine databases was conducted between January 2000–July 2014. Two reviewers independently assessed all titles (n = 1017) and retained abstracts (n = 233) for relevance. Methodological quality of quantitative papers was assessed using the MERSQI instrument. The overall quality of evidence in this field was low. Evidence was synthesised in a narrative review. Results Applicants support interviews, and multiple mini interviews (MMIs). There is emerging evidence that situational judgement tests (SJTs) and selection centres (SCs) are also well regarded, but aptitude tests less so. Selectors endorse the use of interviews in general and in particular MMIs judging them to be fair, relevant and appropriate, with emerging evidence of similarly positive reactions to SCs. Aptitude tests and academic records were valued in decisions of whom to call to interview. Medical students prefer interviews based selection to cognitive aptitude tests. They are unconvinced about the transparency and veracity of written applications. Perceptions of organisational justice, which describe views of fairness in organisational processes, appear to be highly influential on stakeholders’ views of the acceptability of selection methods. In particular procedural justice (perceived fairness of selection tools in terms of job relevance and characteristics of the test) and distributive justice (perceived fairness of selection outcomes in terms of equal opportunity and equity), appear to be important considerations when deciding on acceptability of selection methods. There were significant gaps with respect to both key stakeholder groups and the range of selection tools assessed. Conclusions Notwithstanding the observed limitations in the quality of research in this field, there appears to be broad concordance of views on the various selection methods, across the diverse stakeholders groups. This review highlights the need for better standards, more appropriate methodologies and for broadening the scope of stakeholder research.

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.

Since 2010, Universitas Papua - UNIPA in particular the Research and Community Services Department was involved in survey, outreach program and collaboration works with people in Saubeba as a part of Leatherback conservation program. To follow up the work of UNIPA, between June and August 2016, a group of student from UNIPA conducted a field work in Saubeba, Abun District of Tambrauw Regency with special concerned on 11 programs that have been planned together with the communities. Agriculture, Agricultural Product Processing, Education, Environment and Health as well as Leatherback Conservation were prioritized as essential programs. This paper provides part of the program that conducted in collaboration witth local communities in order to support education-based of coastal communities empowerment.

Ice shelves control the dynamic mass loss of ice sheets through buttressing and their integrity depends on the spatial variability of their basal mass balance (BMB), i.e. the difference between refreezing and melting. Here, we present an improved technique – based on satellite observations – to capture the small-scale variability in the BMB of ice shelves. As a case study, we apply the methodology to the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, and derive its yearly averaged BMB at 10 m horizontal gridding. We use mass conservation in a Lagrangian framework based on high-resolution surface velocities, atmospheric-model surface mass balance and hydrostatic ice-thickness fields (derived from TanDEM-X surface elevation). Spatial derivatives are implemented using the total-variation differentiation, which preserves abrupt changes in flow velocities and their spatial gradients. Such changes may reflect a dynamic response to localized basal melting and should be included in the mass budget. Our BMB field exhibits much spatial detail and ranges from −14.7 to 8.6 m a−1 ice equivalent. Highest melt rates are found close to the grounding line where the pressure melting point is high, and the ice shelf slope is steep. The BMB field agrees well with on-site measurements from phase-sensitive radar, although independent radar profiling indicates unresolved spatial variations in firn density. We show that an elliptical surface depression (10 m deep and with an extent of 0.7 km × 1.3 km) lowers by 0.5 to 1.4 m a−1, which we tentatively attribute to a transient adaptation to hydrostatic equilibrium. We find evidence for elevated melting beneath ice shelf channels (with melting being concentrated on the channel's flanks). However, farther downstream from the grounding line, the majority of ice shelf channels advect passively (i.e. no melting nor refreezing) toward the ice shelf front. Although the absolute, satellite-based BMB values remain uncertain, we have high confidence in the spatial variability on sub-kilometre scales. This study highlights expected challenges for a full coupling between ice and ocean models.

The magnitude of the Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea-level rise is dominated by the potential of its marine sectors to become unstable and collapse as a response to ocean (and atmospheric) forcing. This paper presents Antarctic sea-level response to sudden atmospheric and oceanic forcings on multi-centennial timescales with the newly developed fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid ice sheet–ice shelf model with vertically integrated thermomechanical coupling, making the model two-dimensional. Its marine boundary is represented by two different flux conditions, coherent with power-law basal sliding and Coulomb basal friction. The model has been compared to existing benchmarks. Modelled Antarctic ice sheet response to forcing is dominated by sub-ice shelf melt and the sensitivity is highly dependent on basal conditions at the grounding line. Coulomb friction in the grounding-line transition zone leads to significantly higher mass loss in both West and East Antarctica on centennial timescales, leading to 1.5 m sea-level rise after 500 years for a limited melt scenario of 10 m a−1 under freely floating ice shelves, up to 6 m for a 50 m a−1 scenario. The higher sensitivity is attributed to higher ice fluxes at the grounding line due to vanishing effective pressure. Removing the ice shelves altogether results in a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet and (partially) marine basins in East Antarctica. After 500 years, this leads to a 5 m and a 16 m sea-level rise for the power-law basal sliding and Coulomb friction conditions at the grounding line, respectively. The latter value agrees with simulations by DeConto and Pollard (2016) over a similar period (but with different forcing and including processes of hydrofracturing and cliff failure). The chosen parametrizations make model results largely independent of spatial resolution so that f.ETISh can potentially be integrated in large-scale Earth system models.

The formation mechanisms of ice-shelf channels remain poorly understood. Here, using ice-penetrating radar data, the authors propose that ice-shelf channel morphology in the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, is seeded by esker ridges, indenting the ice from below.

The East Antarctic ice sheet is likely more stable than its West Antarctic counterpart because its bed is largely lying above sea level. However, the ice sheet in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, contains marine sectors that are in contact with the ocean through overdeepened marine basins interspersed by grounded ice promontories and ice rises, pinning and stabilising the ice shelves. In this paper, we use the ice-sheet model BISICLES to investigate the effect of sub-ice-shelf melting, using a series of scenarios compliant with current values, on the ice-dynamic stability of the outlet glaciers between the Lazarev and Roi Baudouin ice shelves over the next millennium. Overall, the sub-ice-shelf melting substantially impacts the sea-level contribution. Locally, we predict a short-term rapid grounding-line retreat of the overdeepened outlet glacier Hansenbreen, which further induces the transition of the bordering ice promontories into ice rises. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrated that the onset of the marine ice-sheet retreat and subsequent promontory transition into ice rise is controlled by small pinning points, mostly uncharted in pan-Antarctic datasets. Pinning points have a twofold impact on marine ice sheets. They decrease the ice discharge by buttressing effect, and they play a crucial role in initialising marine ice sheets through data assimilation, leading to errors in ice-shelf rheology when omitted. Our results show that unpinning increases the sea-level rise by 10 %, while omitting the same pinning point in data assimilation decreases it by 10 %, but the more striking effect is in the promontory transition time, advanced by two centuries for unpinning and delayed by almost half a millennium when the pinning point is missing in data assimilation. Pinning points exert a subtle influence on ice dynamics at the kilometre scale, which calls for a better knowledge of the Antarctic margins.

Ice cores provide temporal records of surface mass balance (SMB). Coastal areas of Antarctica have relatively high and variable SMB, but are under-represented in records spanning more than 100 years. Here we present SMB reconstruction from a 120 m-long ice core drilled in 2012 on the Derwael Ice Rise, coastal Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Water stable isotope (δ18O and δD) stratigraphy is supplemented by discontinuous major ion profiles and continuous electrical conductivity measurements. The base of the ice core is dated to AD 1759 ± 16, providing a climate proxy for the past ∼ 250 years. The core's annual layer thickness history is combined with its gravimetric density profile to reconstruct the site's SMB history, corrected for the influence of ice deformation. The mean SMB for the core's entire history is 0.47 ± 0.02 m water equivalent (w.e.) a−1. The time series of reconstructed annual SMB shows high variability, but a general increase beginning in the 20th century. This increase is particularly marked during the last 50 years (1962–2011), which yields mean SMB of 0.61 ± 0.01 m w.e. a−1. This trend is compared with other reported SMB data in Antarctica, generally showing a high spatial variability. Output of the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) suggests that, although atmospheric circulation is the main factor influencing SMB, variability in sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover in the precipitation source region also explain part of the variability in SMB. Local snow redistribution can also influence interannual variability but is unlikely to influence long-term trends significantly. This is the first record from a coastal ice core in East Antarctica to show an increase in SMB beginning in the early 20th century and particularly marked during the last 50 years.

Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computational experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet–ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models.

The thickness of ice shelves, a basic parameter for mass balance estimates, is typically inferred using hydrostatic equilibrium, for which knowledge of the depth-averaged density is essential. The densification from snow to ice depends on a number of local factors (e.g., temperature and surface mass balance) causing spatial and temporal variations in density–depth profiles. However, direct measurements of firn density are sparse, requiring substantial logistical effort. Here, we infer density from radio-wave propagation speed using ground-based wide-angle radar data sets (10 MHz) collected at five sites on Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf (RBIS), Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. We reconstruct depth to internal reflectors, local ice thickness, and firn-air content using a novel algorithm that includes traveltime inversion and ray tracing with a prescribed shape of the depth–density relationship. For the particular case of an ice-shelf channel, where ice thickness and surface slope change substantially over a few kilometers, the radar data suggest that firn inside the channel is about 5 % denser than outside the channel. Although this density difference is at the detection limit of the radar, it is consistent with a similar density anomaly reconstructed from optical televiewing, which reveals that the firn inside the channel is 4.7 % denser than that outside the channel. Hydrostatic ice thickness calculations used for determining basal melt rates should account for the denser firn in ice-shelf channels. The radar method presented here is robust and can easily be adapted to different radar frequencies and data-acquisition geometries.

Climate model projections are often aggregated into multi-model averages of all models participating in an intercomparison project, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The "multi-model" approach provides a sensitivity test to the models' structural choices and implicitly assumes that multiple models provide additional and more reliable information than a single model, with higher confidence being placed on results that are common to an ensemble. A first initiative of the ice sheet modeling community, SeaRISE, provided such multi-model average projections of polar ice sheets' contribution to sea-level rise. The SeaRISE Antarctic numerical experiments aggregated results from all models devoid of a priori selection, based on the capacity of such models to represent key ice-dynamical processes. Here, using the experimental setup proposed in SeaRISE, we demonstrate that correctly representing grounding line dynamics is essential to infer future Antarctic mass change. We further illustrate the significant impact on the ensemble mean and deviation of adding one model with a known bias in its ability of modeling grounding line dynamics. We show that this biased model can hardly be identified from the ensemble only based on its estimation of volume change, as ad hoc and untrustworthy parametrizations can force any modeled grounding line to retreat. However, tools are available to test parts of the response of marine ice sheet models to perturbations of climatic and/or oceanic origin (MISMIP, MISMIP3d). Based on recent projections of Pine Island Glacier mass loss, we further show that excluding ice sheet models that do not pass the MISMIP benchmarks decreases the mean contribution and standard deviation of the multi-model ensemble projection by an order of magnitude for that particular drainage basin.

We present results of a multi-methodological approach to characterize the flow regime of West Ragnhild Glacier, the widest glacier in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. A new airborne radar survey points to substantially thicker ice (>2000 m) than previously thought. With a discharge estimate of 13–14 Gt yr−1, West Ragnhild Glacier thus becomes of the three major outlet glaciers in Dronning Maud Land. Its bed topography is distinct between the upstream and downstream section: in the downstream section (−1) can only be explained through very low basal friction, leading to a substantial amount of basal sliding in the downstream 65 km of the glacier. All the above lines of evidence (sediment bed, wetness and basal motion) and the relatively flat grounding zone give the potential for West Ragnhild Glacier to be more sensitive to external forcing compared to other major outlet glaciers in this region, which are more stable due to their bed geometry (e.g. Shirase Glacier).

Mangrove forests prominently occupy an intertidal boundary position where the effects of sea level rise will be fast and well visible. This study in East Africa (Gazi Bay, Kenya) addresses the question of whether mangroves can be resilient to a rise in sea level by focusing on their potential to migrate towards landward areas. The combinatory analysis between remote sensing, DGPS-based ground truth and digital terrain models (DTM) unveils how real vegetation assemblages can shift under different projected (minimum (+9 cm), relative (+20 cm), average (+48 cm) and maximum (+88 cm)) scenarios of sea level rise (SLR). Under SLR scenarios up to 48 cm by the year 2100, the landward extension remarkably implies an area increase for each of the dominant mangrove assemblages except for Avicennia marina and Ceriops tagal, both on the landward side. On the one hand, the increase in most species in the first three scenarios, including the socio-economically most important species in this area, Rhizophora mucronata and C. tagal on the seaward side, strongly depends on the colonisation rate of these species. On the other hand, a SLR scenario of +88 cm by the year 2100 indicates that the area flooded only by equinoctial tides strongly decreases due to the topographical settings at the edge of the inhabited area. Consequently, the landward Avicennia-dominated assemblages will further decrease as a formation if they fail to adapt to a more frequent inundation. The topography is site-specific; however non-invadable areas can be typical for many mangrove settings.

Glaciers and ice caps exhibit currently the largest cryospheric contributions to sea level rise. Modelling the dynamics and mass balance of the major ice sheets is therefore an important issue to investigate the current state and the future response of the cryosphere in response to changing environmental conditions, namely global warming. This requires a powerful, easy-to-use, versatile multi-approximation ice dynamics model. Based on the well-known and established ice sheet model of Pattyn (2003) we develop the modular multi-approximation thermomechanic ice model RIMBAY, in which we improve the original version in several aspects like a shallow ice–shallow shelf coupler and a full 3D-grounding-line migration scheme based on Schoof's (2007) heuristic analytical approach. We summarise the full Stokes equations and several approximations implemented within this model and we describe the different numerical discretisations. The results are cross-validated against previous publications dealing with ice modelling, and some additional artificial set-ups demonstrate the robustness of the different solvers and their internal coupling. RIMBAY is designed for an easy adaption to new scientific issues. Hence, we demonstrate in very different set-ups the applicability and functionality of RIMBAY in Earth system science in general and ice modelling in particular.

The recovery of a 1.5 million yr long ice core from Antarctica represents a keystone of our understanding of Quaternary climate, the progression of glaciation over this time period and the role of greenhouse gas cycles in this progression. Here we tackle the question of where such ice may still be found in the Antarctic ice sheet. We can show that such old ice is most likely to exist in the plateau area of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) without stratigraphic disturbance and should be able to be recovered after careful pre-site selection studies. Based on a simple ice and heat flow model and glaciological observations, we conclude that positions in the vicinity of major domes and saddle position on the East Antarctic Plateau will most likely have such old ice in store and represent the best study areas for dedicated reconnaissance studies in the near future. In contrast to previous ice core drill site selections, however, we strongly suggest significantly reduced ice thickness to avoid bottom melting. For example for the geothermal heat flux and accumulation conditions at Dome C, an ice thickness lower than but close to about 2500 m would be required to find 1.5 Myr old ice (i.e., more than 700 m less than at the current EPICA Dome C drill site). Within this constraint, the resolution of an Oldest-Ice record and the distance of such old ice to the bedrock should be maximized to avoid ice flow disturbances, for example, by finding locations with minimum geothermal heat flux. As the geothermal heat flux is largely unknown for the EAIS, this parameter has to be carefully determined beforehand. In addition, detailed bedrock topography and ice flow history has to be reconstructed for candidates of an Oldest-Ice ice coring site. Finally, we argue strongly for rapid access drilling before any full, deep ice coring activity commences to bring datable samples to the surface and to allow an age check of the oldest ice.

Finding suitable potential sites for an undisturbed record of million-year old ice in Antarctica requires slow-moving ice (preferably an ice divide) and basal conditions that are not disturbed by large topographic variations. Furthermore, ice should be thick and cold basal conditions should prevail, since basal melting would destroy the bottom layers. However, thick ice (needed to resolve the signal at sufficient high resolution) increases basal temperatures, which is a conflicting condition for finding a suitable drill site. In addition, slow moving areas in the center of ice sheets are also low-accumulation areas, and low accumulation reduces potential cooling of the ice through vertical advection. While boundary conditions such as ice thickness and accumulation rates are relatively well constrained, the major uncertainty in determining basal thermal conditions resides in the geothermal heat flow (GHF) underneath the ice sheet. We explore uncertainties in existing GHF data sets and their effect on basal temperatures of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and propose an updated method based on Pattyn (2010) to improve existing GHF data sets in agreement with known basal temperatures and their gradients to reduce this uncertainty. Both complementary methods lead to a better comprehension of basal temperature sensitivity and a characterization of potential ice coring sites within these uncertainties. The combination of both modeling approaches show that the most likely oldest ice sites are situated near the divide areas (close to existing deep drilling sites, but in areas of smaller ice thickness) and across the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains.

Marine ice-sheet stability is mostly controlled by the dynamics of the grounding line, i.e. the junction between the grounded ice sheet and the floating ice shelf. Grounding line migration has been investigated within the framework of MISMIP (Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project), which mainly aimed at investigating steady state solutions. Here we focus on transient behaviour, executing short-term simulations (200 yr) of a steady ice sheet perturbed by the release of the buttressing restraint exerted by the ice shelf on the grounded ice upstream. The transient grounding line behaviour of four different flowline ice-sheet models has been compared. The models differ in the physics implemented (full Stokes and shallow shelf approximation), the numerical approach, as well as the grounding line treatment. Their overall response to the loss of buttressing is found to be broadly consistent in terms of grounding line position, rate of surface elevation change and surface velocity. However, still small differences appear for these latter variables, and they can lead to large discrepancies (> 100%) observed in terms of ice sheet contribution to sea level when cumulated over time. Despite the recent important improvements of marine ice-sheet models in their ability to compute steady state configurations, our results question the capacity of these models to compute short-term reliable sea-level rise projections.

Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models that are able to robustly simulate grounding line migration. We present results of an intercomparison exercise for marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no effects of lateral buttressing). Unique steady state grounding line positions exist for ice sheets on a downward sloping bed, while hysteresis occurs across an overdeepened bed, and stable steady state grounding line positions only occur on the downward-sloping sections. Models based on the shallow ice approximation, which does not resolve extensional stresses, do not reproduce the approximate analytical results unless appropriate parameterizations for ice flux are imposed at the grounding line. For extensional-stress resolving "shelfy stream" models, differences between model results were mainly due to the choice of spatial discretization. Moving grid methods were found to be the most accurate at capturing grounding line evolution, since they track the grounding line explicitly. Adaptive mesh refinement can further improve accuracy, including fixed grid models that generally perform poorly at coarse resolution. Fixed grid models, with nested grid representations of the grounding line, are able to generate accurate steady state positions, but can be inaccurate over transients. Only one full-Stokes model was included in the intercomparison, and consequently the accuracy of shelfy stream models as approximations of full-Stokes models remains to be determined in detail, especially during transients.

Following publication of the original article [1], the author report typographical errors in the

Subglacial lakes in Antarctica influence to a large extent the flow of the ice sheet. In this study we use an idealised lake geometry to study this impact. We employ a) an improved three-dimensional full-Stokes ice flow model with a nonlinear rheology, b) a three-dimensional fluid dynamics model with eddy diffusion to simulate the basal mass balance at the lake-ice interface, and c) a newly developed coupler to exchange boundary conditions between the two individual models. Different boundary conditions are applied over grounded ice and floating ice. This results in significantly increased temperatures within the ice on top of the lake, compared to ice at the same depth outside the lake area. Basal melting of the ice sheet increases this lateral temperature gradient. Upstream the ice flow converges towards the lake and accelerates by about 10% whenever basal melting at the ice-lake boundary is present. Above and downstream of the lake, where the ice flow diverges, a velocity decrease of about 10% is simulated.

We present the results of the first ice sheet model intercomparison project for higher-order and full-Stokes ice sheet models. These models are compared and verified in a series of six experiments of which one has an analytical solution obtained from a perturbation analysis. The experiments are applied to both 2-D and 3-D geometries; five experiments are steady-state diagnostic, and one has a time-dependent prognostic solution. All participating models give results that are in close agreement. A clear distinction can be made between higher-order models and those that solve the full system of equations. The full-Stokes models show a much smaller spread, hence are in better agreement with one another and with the analytical solution.

Volume loss of valley glaciers is now considered to be a significant contribution to sea level rise. Understanding and identifying the processes involved in accelerated mass loss are necessary to determine their impact on the global system. Here we present results from a series of model experiments with a higher-order thermomechanically coupled flowline model (Pattyn, 2002). Boundary conditions to the model are parameterizations of surface mass balance, geothermal heating, observed surface and 10 m ice depth temperatures. The time-dependent experiments aim at simulating the glacier retreat from its LIA expansion to present according to different scenarios and model parameters. Model output was validated against measurements of ice velocity, ice surface elevation and terminus position at different stages. Results demonstrate that a key factor in determining the glacier retreat history is the importance of internal accumulation (>50%) in the total mass balance. The persistence of a basal temperate zone characteristic for this polythermal glacier depends largely on its contribution. Accelerated glacier retreat since the early nineties seems directly related to the increase in ELA and the sudden reduction in AAR due to the fact that a large lower elevation cirque – previously an important accumulation area – became part of the ablation zone.

A nested ice flow model was developed for eastern Dronning Maud Land to assist with the dating and interpretation of the EDML deep ice core. The model consists of a high-resolution higher-order ice dynamic flow model that was nested into a comprehensive 3-D thermomechanical model of the whole Antarctic ice sheet. As the drill site is on a flank position the calculations specifically take into account the effects of horizontal advection as deeper ice in the core originated from higher inland. First the regional velocity field and ice sheet geometry is obtained from a forward experiment over the last 8 glacial cycles. The result is subsequently employed in a Lagrangian backtracing algorithm to provide particle paths back to their time and place of deposition. The procedure directly yields the depth-age distribution, surface conditions at particle origin, and a suite of relevant parameters such as initial annual layer thickness. This paper discusses the method and the main results of the experiment, including the ice core chronology, the non-climatic corrections needed to extract the climatic part of the signal, and the thinning function. The focus is on the upper 89% of the ice core (appr. 170 kyears) as the dating below that is increasingly less robust owing to the unknown value of the geothermal heat flux. It is found that the temperature biases resulting from variations of surface elevation are up to half of the magnitude of the climatic changes themselves.

Objective. Gait impairment is commonly in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). The 12-item MS walking scale (MSWS-12) assesses patients’ measurement of walking quality. The aim of this study was to cross-culturally adapt and validate the MSWS-12 for the Italian population with MS. Methods. Six MS out-patient clinics across Italy enrolled subjects between June 2013 and December 2013. Construct validity of MSWS-12 was determined by examining correlations with the Italian version of the EDSS, the timed 25-foot walk (T25FW), and the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS). Results. 321 MS subjects were enrolled. Mean age was 47.55 years and mean disease duration was 13.8 years. Mean EDSS score was 4.46. 185 subjects had a relapsing-remitting course, 92 were secondary progressive, 43 were primary progressive, and 1 had a clinically isolated syndrome. The mean total score of the MSWS-12 was 49.6 (SD: 31) with values ranging between 0 and 100. Correlations between the MSWS-12 with age, disease duration, and disease course were found but not with gender. Values of the MSWS-12/IT were significantly related to EDSS (0.71), to the T25FW (0.65), and to the FSS (0.51). Conclusion. MSWS-12/IT has been adapted and validated, it is a reliable and reproducible scale for Italian patients with MS.