Search

Hydrological extremes occupy a large spatial extent, with a temporal sequence, both of which can be influenced by a range of climatological and geographical phenomena. Understanding the key information in the spatial and temporal domain is essential to make accurate forecasts. The capabilities of deep learning methods can be applied in such instances due to their enhanced ability in learning complex relationships. Given its success in other domains, this study presents a framework that features a long short-term memory deep learning model for spatio temporal hydrological extreme forecasting in the South Pacific region. The data consists of satellite rainfall estimates and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. We use the satellite rainfall estimate to calculate the effective drought index (EDI), an indicator of hydrological extreme events. The framework is developed to forecast monthly EDI using three different approaches: (i) univariate (ii) multivariate with neighbouring spatial points (iii) multivariate with neighbouring spatial points and the eigenvector values of SST. Additionally, better identification of extreme wet events is noted with the inclusion of the eigenvector values of SST. By establishing the framework for the multivariate approach in two forms, it is evident that the model accuracy is contingent on understanding the dominant feature which influences precipitation regimes in the Pacific. The framework can be used to better understand linear and non-linear relationships within multi-dimensional data in other study regions, and provide long-term climate outlooks.

Recently, applications of agent-based model (ABM) have been used to understand the interaction between social and hydrological systems. These systems are dynamic and co-evolving, which can be captured through different decision-making entities in an ABM simulation. Therefore, this review aims to better understand the use of ABM for flood risk management and assessment (FRMA). The review comprises a systematic selection of literature using the PRISMA method, which is then assessed using an adapted version of the overview, design, and detail (ODD) protocol to better understand the ABM model development process for FRMA. The review finds that the use of the ODD protocol was only seen in 25% of the studies. The studies which did not explicitly use the ODD had a comprehensive description of the models, albeit done in a non-standardised way. Modellers continue to face the dilemma between parsimony and the breadth of the model as identified from the design component of the ODD. The hydrological component is mainly captured in the sub-model process of the ODD, however, improvements in the definition of the sub-model component may warrant a more comprehensive description of the processes and facilitate comparison across studies. The applications of ABM have shown promise to understand long term flood risks, test the efficacy of policies and better understand the factors that affect warning response during the flood evacuation process. ODD adopted for this review may consequently allow for the adoption and more coherent use of the protocol to document models in FRMA.

Flooding events are set to worsen in rapidly urbanising Pacific Islands.(1) Most Pacific Island cities and towns are in low-lying areas vulnerable to more severe tropical cyclones and rising sea levels. Approaches to disaster response and recovery need to improve. This article uses four principles drawn from area-based approaches (ABAs) – people-centred responses, adaptive processes, multi-sector collaboration and reflective practice – to review urban disaster recovery efforts in Fiji, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Information was gathered through key informant interviews and a literature review. The research found positive examples of collaboration, locally tailored social protection mechanisms and community leadership. It also found challenges, including bypassed community structures and traditional adaptation techniques, duplication of efforts and weak coordination. The article concludes with a call to localise ABA approaches further, to strengthen people-centred disaster recovery and locally owned resilience.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the challenges of transitional shelter provision for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in urban informal settlements. While there has been considerable research on postdisaster transitional shelters, less is known on shelters for IDPs in urban informal settlements.Design/methodology/approachA case study is presented based on field research at the communities in Olaria and City in São Paulo, Brazil. Collection of data included personal communication with the dwellers, surveys and interviews with representatives from Techo, one of the few organizations that provide transitional shelters for IDPs. A review of documents regarding the construction, design and users' adaptation of transitional shelter was also undertaken. Data was analyzed using thematic analysis.FindingsThe study found that Techo's program impacts positively on the nonphysical aspects of shelter, such as physical and mental health, security, household responsibilities and community participation. However, Techo's transitional shelter for IDPs in urban informal settlements and most postdisaster transitional shelters share similar problems. These programs respond to the needs of a small proportion of the affected populations with shelters of minimum quality and low durability.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper is limited to a single case study of the NGO Techo and further case study research is recommended to further develop and validate the study results in other urban development contexts.Originality/valueThis research contributes to describing and understanding the context and the provision of transitional shelters to IDPs in urban informal settlements and impacts in the community. With increasing numbers of IDPs settling in urban informal settlements in many parts of the world, this paper is valuable to policymakers, NGOs and researchers operating in this field to facilitate community development.

There is growing recognition of the cumulative impact that converging environmental, political, social and economic risks have on the ability of cities to function in times of shocks and stresses. While many frameworks and assessment tools have been developed to assess the technical resilience of the infrastructure of cities, there have been fewer attempts to holistically understand and map all the factors that interact to potentially produce functioning urban systems, including the role of institutions (both formal and informal). Applied integrated research is needed to understand the daily functioning, vulnerability and resilience of these rapidly growing cities amid chronic and acute stresses and shocks; to also understand why and how multiple risks and protective factors converge and interact to constrain or enable cities to fulfil their core functions in times of stability and crisis; and finally to produce operationally relevant recommendations that could inform interventions.

The frequency and severity of floods is increasing in many countries, and hospitals play an essential role in protecting the community from their potentially devastating impacts. However, many hospitals are vulnerable to flooding having been designed and located without these risks in mind. In such situations, evacuation of vulnerable patients to safer alternative healthcare facilities might be the most reasonable response. However, there has been little research into hospital evacuation, and to address this research gap, this paper presents an innovative hospital evacuation model that can facilitate the optimal scheduling and sequencing of hospital evacuation under indeterministic flooding conditions. The proposed model combines a flood simulator and a mathematical model. Assuming the high levels of complexity of a realistic hospital evacuation system, a BendersDecomposition approach is developed to cope with large size problems. A case study in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, is used to illustrate the proposed model, and results confirm that the model can generate effective plans to evacuate hospitals in the shortest time possible in flood emergency conditions. The findings of this study contribute new theoretical and practical insights to a growing body of knowledge about disaster response strategies in hospitals and have implications for health service management and health policymakers in countries where health infrastructures are vulnerable to increasing climate change risks.

The manufacturing industries in a number of high-labour-cost economies are undergoing a shift towards increased automation and intelligence typified by the ‘Industry 4.0’ paradigm. Advances from computer science research including digital informatics enables the addition of intelligence and autonomy to the flexible and reconfigurable manufacturing systems developed by manufacturing systems research. One such advance is the development of Data Distribution Services (DDSs) that enable the robust and timely distribution of high-quality data in a scalable manner. This paper describes how a DDS can be used to integrate systems across a production enterprise, including directly on a shop floor rather than using additional specialised shop floor integration components often required by other communications protocols.

Adaptive production systems are a key trend in modern advanced manufacturing. This stems from the requirement for the system to respond to disruption , either in the form of product changes or changes to other operational parameters. The design and reconfig-uration of these systems is therefore a unique challenge for the community. One approach to systems design is based on functional and behavioural modelling, drawn from the field of design theory. Existing approaches suffer from lack of focus on the adaptive properties of the system. While traditional production systems design focusses on the physical system structure and associated processes, new approaches based on functional and behavioural models are particularly suited to addressing the challenges of disruptive production environments resulting from Industry 4.0 and similar trends. We therefore present a Function-Behaviour-Structure (FBS) methodology for Evolvable Assembly Systems (EAS), a class of self-adaptive reconfigurable production systems, comprising an ontology model and design process. The ontology model provides definitions for Function, Structure, and Behaviour of an adaptive production system. This model is used as the input to a functional modelling design process for EAS-like systems , where the design process must be integrated into the system control behaviour. The framework is illustrated with an example taken from a real EAS instan-tiation using industrial hardware.

This paper presents the findings of a review of academic literature concerning the degree to which corruption worsens disasters triggered by natural hazards in the built environment. The research employed a 'systematic literature review' methodology to analyse leading academic databases, resulting in a detailed analysis of 59 peer-reviewed, published papers. It found that while much of the literature focuses on earthquakes (relating to building and infrastructure collapse), the quality of governance, and the drivers of corruption, there is presently very limited scholarship on the general scope, reach, and scale with respect to how disasters are worsened by corruption. It is notable that the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and a number of other high-level reports fail to mention corruption. The paper argues that this serious gap in understanding and expressing how corruption increases vulnerability in the built environment within disaster studies perversely supports the furtherance of corruption in worsening disasters.يعرض هذه المقال نتائج مراجعة الأدبيات الأكاديمية المتعلقة بالدرجة التي يؤدي فيها الفساد إلى تفاقم الكوارث الطبيعية في البيئة المبنية. استخدم البحث منهجية "مراجعة منتظمة للأدبيات" لتحليل قواعد البيانات الأكاديمية الرائدة، مما أدى إلى تحليل مفصل لـ 59 بحثًا منشورًا تمت مراجعتهم من قبل الزملاء. لقد وجد أنه في حين أن الكثير من الأدبيات تركز على الزلازل (المتعلقة بالبناء وانهيار البنية التحتية) ونوعية الحوكمة ودوافع الفساد، هناك حاليًا منحة دراسية محدودة فيما يتعلق بالنطاق العام ومدى وكيفية تفاقم الكوارث بسبب الفساد. الكلمات المفتاحية : البيئة المبنية، الفساد، الشفافية.本文介绍的学术文献综述是关于腐败在多大程度上加剧了建筑环境中自然引发的灾害。该研究采用“系统文献综述”方法来分析主要的学术数据库，从而对59篇经同行评议已发表论文进行了详细分析。研究发现，虽然大部分文献都集中在地震（关于建筑和基础设施倒塌）、治理质量和腐败的驱动因素上，但目前关于腐败如何使灾害恶化的一般范围、影响和规模的学术研究有限. 关键词：建筑环境，腐败，透明度.

This paper examines area-based approaches (ABAs) in urban post-disaster contexts. After introducing the main features of ABAs, the paper discusses current practice in humanitarian response, and the need within urban areas to draw lessons from urban development approaches, from which ABAs have emerged. The paper then presents lessons from research concerning the application of ABAs in relation to phases of the project management cycle: assessment and design, implementation, and monitoring, evaluation and learning. The paper ends with a brief discussion. Overall, it argues that for ABAs to be effective, they need to draw on longstanding lessons from urban development, plan for a longer timeframe for their actions than is otherwise often the case in recovery operations, and consider the need to scale up actions for wider city application.

The January 2001 earthquake that struck the state of Gujarat in India damaged or destroyed some 8,000 villages and 490 towns. In the months and years after the earthquake, many organizations undertook widespread reconstruction programmes. One such collaboration between the NGO CARE India and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) built 5,554 permanent houses as well as schools and community centres in 23 villages. This paper revisits 10 of the 23 villages that were partially or fully rebuilt by FICCI–CARE, 10 years after the earthquake. It finds that while the houses remain structurally strong and are mostly in use, residents’ levels of satisfaction, perception and usage are mixed. A central theme concerns the initial prioritization of seismic safety, which has sacrificed longer-term considerations of comfort, adaptability and the environment. The paper describes the houses that were built and presents findings according to structural condition, engagement in design, adaptations, house selling and perceptions of safety. The discussion presents four issues that emerge from the findings and wider research. The paper ends by proposing a simple equation for good housing, which places people’s involvement in building processes as the vital component.

Increased exposure to volcanic hazard, particularly at vulnerable small islands, is driving an urgent and growing need for improved communication between monitoring scientists, emergency managers and the media, in advance of and during volcanic crises. Information gathering exercises undertaken on volcanic islands (Guadeloupe, St. Vincent and Montserrat) in the Lesser Antilles (eastern Caribbean), which have recently experienced – or are currently experiencing – volcanic action, have provided the basis for the compilation and publication of a handbook on Communication During Volcanic Emergencies, aimed at the principal stakeholder groups. The findings of the on-island surveys point up the critical importance of (1) bringing together monitoring scientists, emergency managers, and representatives of the media, well in advance of a volcanic crisis, and (2), ensuring that procedures and protocols are in place that will allow, as far as possible, effective and seamless cooperation and coordination when and if a crisis situation develops. Communication During Volcanic Emergencies is designed to promote and encourage both of these priorities through providing the first source-book addressing working relationships and inter-linkages between the stakeholder groups, and providing examples of good and bad practice. While targeting the volcanic islands of the eastern Caribbean, the source-book and its content are largely generic, and the advice and guidelines contained therein have equal validity in respect of improving communication before and during crises at any volcano, and have application to the communication issue in respect of a range of other geophysical hazards.

This paper(1) looks at some of the winners and losers in the reconstruction efforts following the 2001 earthquake in Gujarat. It reviews some of the consequences of different approaches to reconstruction and these are illustrated by the experiences of three villages. It ends with a discussion of the lessons that are repeatedly ignored after disaster.

This paper presents a description of the Caqueta district in Lima and describes the methodology and research methods used. It presents the key findings of the project and concludes with a brief discussion of mitigation as a tool for urban development. The paper seeks to reinforce the key point of the project: that adherence to “top down” interventions can ignore community level initiatives and the positive inputs of other actors; also that risk reduction can be used as a tool in uniting key actors to focus on protecting livelihoods, as well as lives, in the promotion of sustainable urban development. This paper results from a recently completed project entitled “Reducing Risk In Vulnerable Communities, Lima, Peru. Phase One: Caqueta Pilot Project”. The principle aim of the project was to identify and subsequently develop, with the participation of key “stakeholders”, sustainable risk reduction measures for Caqueta, a particularly low-income area of Lima, Peru, vulnerable to landslides, earthquakes and fire.

EDITOR,--Last May the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists' national trainees committee published a report of a survey of training carried out between October 1944 and January 1995.1 Replies were received from 70% of trainees in the specialty, and the report can …