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Abstract COVID-19-associated respiratory failure offers the unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the differential host response to a uniform pathogenic insult. Understanding whether there are distinct subphenotypes of severe COVID-19 may offer insight into its pathophysiology. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is an objective and comprehensive measurement that measures dysfunction severity of six organ systems, i.e., cardiovascular, central nervous system, coagulation, liver, renal, and respiration. Our aim was to identify and characterize distinct subphenotypes of COVID-19 critical illness defined by the post-intubation trajectory of SOFA score. Intubated COVID-19 patients at two hospitals in New York city were leveraged as development and validation cohorts. Patients were grouped into mild, intermediate, and severe strata by their baseline post-intubation SOFA. Hierarchical agglomerative clustering was performed within each stratum to detect subphenotypes based on similarities amongst SOFA score trajectories evaluated by Dynamic Time Warping. Distinct worsening and recovering subphenotypes were identified within each stratum, which had distinct 7-day post-intubation SOFA progression trends. Patients in the worsening suphenotypes had a higher mortality than those in the recovering subphenotypes within each stratum (mild stratum, 29.7% vs. 10.3%, p = 0.033; intermediate stratum, 29.3% vs. 8.0%, p = 0.002; severe stratum, 53.7% vs. 22.2%, p

BackgroundAcute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is heterogeneous. As an indication of the heterogeneity of ARDS, there are patients whose syndrome improves rapidly (i.e., within 24 hours), others whose hypoxemia improves gradually and still others whose severe hypoxemia persists for several days. The latter group of patients with persistent severe ARDS poses challenges to clinicians. We attempted to assess the baseline characteristics and outcomes of persistent severe ARDS and to identify which variables are useful to predict it.MethodsA secondary analysis of patient-level data from the ALTA, EDEN and SAILS ARDSNet clinical trials was conducted. We defined persistent severe ARDS as a partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio (PaO2:FiO2) of equal to or less than 100 mmHg on the second study day following enrollment. Regularized logistic regression with an L1 penalty [Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)] techniques were used to identify predictive variables of persistent severe ARDS.ResultsOf the 1531 individuals with ARDS alive on the second study day after enrollment, 232 (15%) had persistent severe ARDS. Of the latter, 100 (43%) individuals had mild or moderate hypoxemia at baseline. Usage of vasopressors was greater [144/232 (62%) versus 623/1299 (48%); pConclusionsPatients with persistent severe ARDS have distinct baseline characteristics and poor prognosis. Identifying such patients at enrollment may be useful for the prognostic enrichment of trials.