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A suite of generally applicable statistical methods based on empirical bootstrapping is presented for calculating uncertainty and testing the significance of quantitative differences in temperature and/or ice active site densities between ice nucleation temperature spectra derived from droplet freezing experiments. Such experiments are widely used to determine the heterogeneous ice nucleation properties and ice nucleation particle concentration spectra of different particle samples, as well as in studies of homogeneous freezing. Our methods avoid most of the assumptions and approximations inherent to existing approaches, and when sufficiently large sample sizes are used (approximately >150 droplets and >=1000 bootstrap samples in our system), can capture the full range of random variability and error in ice nucleation spectra. Applications include calculation of accurate confidence intervals and confidence bands, quantitative statistical testing of differences between observed freezing spectra, accurate subtraction of the background filtered water freezing signal, and calculation of a range of statistical parameters using data from a single droplet array freezing experiment if necessary. By providing additional statistical tools to the community, this work will improve the quality and accuracy of statistical tests and representations of uncertainty in future ice nucleation research, and will allow quantitative comparisons of the ice nucleation ability of different particles and surfaces.

Neurons perform computations, and convey the results of those computations through the statistical structure of their output spike trains. Here we present a practical method, grounded in the information-theoretic analysis of prediction, for inferring a minimal representation of that structure and for characterizing its complexity. Starting from spike trains, our approach finds their causal state models (CSMs), the minimal hidden Markov models or stochastic automata capable of generating statistically identical time series. We then use these CSMs to objectively quantify both the generalizable structure and the idiosyncratic randomness of the spike train. Specifically, we show that the expected algorithmic information content (the information needed to describe the spike train exactly) can be split into three parts describing (1) the time-invariant structure (complexity) of the minimal spike-generating process, which describes the spike train statistically; (2) the randomness (internal entropy rate) of the minimal spike-generating process; and (3) a residual pure noise term not described by the minimal spike-generating process. We use CSMs to approximate each of these quantities. The CSMs are inferred nonparametrically from the data, making only mild regularity assumptions, via the causal state splitting reconstruction algorithm. The methods presented here complement more traditional spike train analyses by describing not only spiking probability and spike train entropy, but also the complexity of a spike train's structure. We demonstrate our approach using both simulated spike trains and experimental data recorded in rat barrel cortex during vibrissa stimulation., Comment: Somewhat different format from journal version but same content

Discovering relevant, but possibly hidden, variables is a key step in constructing useful and predictive theories about the natural world. This brief note explains the connections between three approaches to this problem: the recently introduced information-bottleneck method, the computational mechanics approach to inferring optimal models, and Salmon's statistical relevance basis., 3 pages, no figures, submitted to PRE as a "brief report". Revision: added an acknowledgements section originally omitted by a LaTeX bug

Computational mechanics, an approach to structural complexity, defines a process's causal states and gives a procedure for finding them. We show that the causal-state representation—an ∈-machine—is the minimal one consistent with accurate prediction. We establish several results on ∈-machine optimality and uniqueness and on how ∈-machines compare to alternative representations. Further results relate measures of randomness and structural complexity obtained from ∈-machines to those from ergodic and information theories.

The positions Ross & Spurrett (R&S) take on issues of information, causality, functionalism, and emergence are actually implicit in the theory and practice of statistical physics, specifically in the way it relates macroscopic collective coordinates to microscopic physics. The reasons for taking macroscopic physical variables like temperature or magnetization to be real apply equally to mental properties like pain.

Cosma Shalizi profiles the career and vision of Myron Scholes, and charts the naisance of the seminal Black–Scholes formula for financial risk management.