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This paper presents a stochastic model predictive control approach combined with a time-series forecasting technique to tackle the problem of microgrid energy management in the face of uncertainty. The data-driven nonparametric chance constraint method is used to formulate chance constraints for stochastic model predictive control, while removing the dependency on probability density assumptions of uncertain variables and retaining the linear structure of the resulting optimization problem. The proposed approach is suitable for implementation on systems with limited computational power or limited memory storage, thanks to its simple linear structure and its ability to provide accurate results within pre-defined confidence levels, even when using small data batches. The proposed forecasting and stochastic model predictive control approaches are applied on a numerical example featuring a small gridconnected microgrid with PV generation, a battery storage system, and a noncontrollable load, showing the ability to reduce costs by reducing the confidence level, and to satisfy pre-defined confidence levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, multi-energy systems (MESs), whereby different energy carriers are coupled together, have become popular. For a more efficient use of MESs, the optimal operation of these systems needs to be considered. This paper focuses on the day-ahead optimal schedule of an MES, including a combined heat and electricity (CHP) unit, a gas boiler, a PV system, and energy storage devices. Starting from a day-ahead PV point forecast, a non-parametric probabilistic forecast method is proposed to build the predicted interval and represent the uncertainty of PV generation. Afterwards, the MES is modeled as mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), and the scheduling problem is solved by interval optimization. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a case study is performed on a real industrial MES. The simulation results show that, by using only historical PV measurement data, the point forecaster reaches a normalized root-mean square error (NRMSE) of 14.24%, and the calibration of probabilistic forecast is improved by 10% compared to building distributions around point forecast. Moreover, the results of interval optimization show that the uncertainty of the PV system not only has an influence on the electrical part of the MES, but also causes a shift in the behavior of the thermal system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]