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1. Supporting contraceptive self-care and reproductive empowerment with a digital health game in Barbados: Development and Pre-implementation study for What’s My Method? [version 2; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Author

Clara Bertozzi-Villa, Nicole Alleyne, Erin Sabato, Anderson Langdon, Elena Bertozzi, Tiffany Jordan, and Sonia Watson-Miller

Subjects
contraceptive self-efficacy, videogame, reproductive empowerment, family planning method, education, eng, Medicine
Abstract

Effective contraceptive education is essential to reducing unwanted pregnancy, increasing uptake of modern contraceptive methods, and thoughtfully planning desired births. New World Health Organization (WHO) and family planning organization guidelines recommend situating contraceptive education and counseling within a broader context of self-care that emphasizes individual agency and reproductive empowerment. Digital health interventions, and games for health specifically, have been validated as effective and scalable tools for self-guided and interactive health education, especially among younger tech-savvy individuals. Barbados currently supplements provider-based contraceptive counseling with analog materials (pamphlets and posters) and informational videos that play on a screen in the waiting room. As part of an implementation framework, this study seeks to conduct a formative evaluation of the What’s My Method? (WMM) game intervention as a tool to support contraceptive counseling and increase reproductive empowerment among childbearing persons in Barbados. We test-deployed the WMM game in Bridgetown, Barbados, conducting playtests and unstructured discussions with prototypes of the WMM game among three groups of stakeholders (youth contraception ambassadors: n=8; healthcare providers: n=7; and nursing students: n=27) to determine acceptability of the intervention, efficacy of the game as a learning tool, and willingness to adopt the tool in their healthcare context. Feedback on acceptability of the game was largely positive. Detailed constructive comments informed modifications and improvements to the game. The questionnaire used to assess contraceptive knowledge gain did not prove effective. Results indicate that the WMM game is well-received and accepted by the healthcare professionals who would be deploying it. This pilot testing has informed the design of the modified WMM for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to test the deployment of the game in a healthcare setting.

Published
2024
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7. Maps and metrics of insecticide-treated net access, use, and nets-per-capita in Africa from 2000-2020

Author

Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Caitlin A. Bever, Hannah Koenker, Daniel J. Weiss, Camilo Vargas-Ruiz, Anita K. Nandi, Harry S. Gibson, Joseph Harris, Katherine E. Battle, Susan F. Rumisha, Suzanne Keddie, Punam Amratia, Rohan Arambepola, Ewan Cameron, Elisabeth G. Chestnutt, Emma L. Collins, Justin Millar, Swapnil Mishra, Jennifer Rozier, Tasmin Symons, Katherine A. Twohig, T. Deirdre Hollingsworth, Peter W. Gething, and Samir Bhatt

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) are an important part of malaria control in Africa and WHO targets aim for 80% coverage. This study estimates the spatio-temporal access and use of ITNs in Africa from 2000-2020, and shows that both metrics have improved over time but access remains below WHO targets.

Published
2021
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8. Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysis

Author

Weiss, Daniel J, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Rumisha, Susan F, Amratia, Punam, Arambepola, Rohan, Battle, Katherine E, Cameron, Ewan, Chestnutt, Elisabeth, Gibson, Harry S, Harris, Joseph, Keddie, Suzanne, Millar, Justin J, Rozier, Jennifer, Symons, Tasmin L, Vargas-Ruiz, Camilo, Hay, Simon I, Smith, David L, Alonso, Pedro L, Noor, Abdisalan M, Bhatt, Samir, and Gething, Peter W

Published
2021
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10. Global estimation of anti-malarial drug effectiveness for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria 1991–2019

Author

Giulia Rathmes, Susan F. Rumisha, Tim C. D. Lucas, Katherine A. Twohig, Andre Python, Michele Nguyen, Anita K. Nandi, Suzanne H. Keddie, Emma L. Collins, Jennifer A. Rozier, Harry S. Gibson, Elisabeth G. Chestnutt, Katherine E. Battle, Georgina S. Humphreys, Punam Amratia, Rohan Arambepola, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Penelope Hancock, Justin J. Millar, Tasmin L. Symons, Samir Bhatt, Ewan Cameron, Philippe J. Guerin, Peter W. Gething, and Daniel J. Weiss

Subjects
Falciparum malaria, Anti-malarial drug effectiveness, Drug quality, Global, Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, RC955-962, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216
Abstract

Abstract Background Anti-malarial drugs play a critical role in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality, but their role is mediated by their effectiveness. Effectiveness is defined as the probability that an anti-malarial drug will successfully treat an individual infected with malaria parasites under routine health care delivery system. Anti-malarial drug effectiveness (AmE) is influenced by drug resistance, drug quality, health system quality, and patient adherence to drug use; its influence on malaria burden varies through space and time. Methods This study uses data from 232 efficacy trials comprised of 86,776 infected individuals to estimate the artemisinin-based and non-artemisinin-based AmE for treating falciparum malaria between 1991 and 2019. Bayesian spatiotemporal models were fitted and used to predict effectiveness at the pixel-level (5 km × 5 km). The median and interquartile ranges (IQR) of AmE are presented for all malaria-endemic countries. Results The global effectiveness of artemisinin-based drugs was 67.4% (IQR: 33.3–75.8), 70.1% (43.6–76.0) and 71.8% (46.9–76.4) for the 1991–2000, 2006–2010, and 2016–2019 periods, respectively. Countries in central Africa, a few in South America, and in the Asian region faced the challenge of lower effectiveness of artemisinin-based anti-malarials. However, improvements were seen after 2016, leaving only a few hotspots in Southeast Asia where resistance to artemisinin and partner drugs is currently problematic and in the central Africa where socio-demographic challenges limit effectiveness. The use of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) with a competent partner drug and having multiple ACT as first-line treatment choice sustained high levels of effectiveness. High levels of access to healthcare, human resource capacity, education, and proximity to cities were associated with increased effectiveness. Effectiveness of non-artemisinin-based drugs was much lower than that of artemisinin-based with no improvement over time: 52.3% (17.9–74.9) for 1991–2000 and 55.5% (27.1–73.4) for 2011–2015. Overall, AmE for artemisinin-based and non-artemisinin-based drugs were, respectively, 29.6 and 36% below clinical efficacy as measured in anti-malarial drug trials. Conclusions This study provides evidence that health system performance, drug quality and patient adherence influence the effectiveness of anti-malarials used in treating uncomplicated falciparum malaria. These results provide guidance to countries’ treatment practises and are critical inputs for malaria prevalence and incidence models used to estimate national level malaria burden.

Published
2020
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11. Global maps of travel time to healthcare facilities

Author

Weiss, D. J., Nelson, A., Vargas-Ruiz, C. A., Gligorić, K., Bavadekar, S., Gabrilovich, E., Bertozzi-Villa, A., Rozier, J., Gibson, H. S., Shekel, T., Kamath, C., Lieber, A., Schulman, K., Shao, Y., Qarkaxhija, V., Nandi, A. K., Keddie, S. H., Rumisha, S., Amratia, P., Arambepola, R., Chestnutt, E. G., Millar, J. J., Symons, T. L., Cameron, E., Battle, K. E., Bhatt, S., and Gething, P. W.

Published
2020
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12. Malaria eradication within a generation: ambitious, achievable, and necessary

Author

Feachem, Richard G A, Chen, Ingrid, Akbari, Omar, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Bhatt, Samir, Binka, Fred, Boni, Maciej F, Buckee, Caroline, Dieleman, Joseph, Dondorp, Arjen, Eapen, Alex, Sekhri Feachem, Neelam, Filler, Scott, Gething, Peter, Gosling, Roly, Haakenstad, Annie, Harvard, Kelly, Hatefi, Arian, Jamison, Dean, Jones, Kate E, Karema, Corine, Kamwi, Richard Nchabi, Lal, Altaf, Larson, Erika, Lees, Margaret, Lobo, Neil F, Micah, Angela E, Moonen, Bruno, Newby, Gretchen, Ning, Xiao, Pate, Muhammad, Quiñones, Martha, Roh, Michelle, Rolfe, Ben, Shanks, Dennis, Singh, Balbir, Staley, Kenneth, Tulloch, James, Wegbreit, Jennifer, Woo, Hyun Ju, and Mpanju-Shumbusho, Winnie

Published
2019
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13. Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study

Author

Weiss, Daniel J, Lucas, Tim C D, Nguyen, Michele, Nandi, Anita K, Bisanzio, Donal, Battle, Katherine E, Cameron, Ewan, Twohig, Katherine A, Pfeffer, Daniel A, Rozier, Jennifer A, Gibson, Harry S, Rao, Puja C, Casey, Daniel, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Collins, Emma L, Dalrymple, Ursula, Gray, Naomi, Harris, Joseph R, Howes, Rosalind E, Kang, Sun Yun, Keddie, Suzanne H, May, Daniel, Rumisha, Susan, Thorn, Michael P, Barber, Ryan, Fullman, Nancy, Huynh, Chantal K, Kulikoff, Xie, Kutz, Michael J, Lopez, Alan D, Mokdad, Ali H, Naghavi, Mohsen, Nguyen, Grant, Shackelford, Katya Anne, Vos, Theo, Wang, Haidong, Smith, David L, Lim, Stephen S, Murray, Christopher J L, Bhatt, Samir, Hay, Simon I, and Gething, Peter W

Published
2019
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14. Travel time to health facilities in areas of outbreak potential: maps for guiding local preparedness and response

Author

E. N. Hulland, K. E. Wiens, S. Shirude, J. D. Morgan, A. Bertozzi-Villa, T. H. Farag, N. Fullman, M. U. G. Kraemer, M. K. Miller-Petrie, V. Gupta, R. C. Reiner, P. Rabinowitz, J. N. Wasserheit, B. P. Bell, S. I. Hay, D. J. Weiss, and D. M. Pigott

Subjects
Preparedness, Viral hemorrhagic fevers, Travel time, Health facility access, Ebola, Marburg, Medicine
Abstract

Abstract Background Repeated outbreaks of emerging pathogens underscore the need for preparedness plans to prevent, detect, and respond. As countries develop and improve National Action Plans for Health Security, addressing subnational variation in preparedness is increasingly important. One facet of preparedness and mitigating disease transmission is health facility accessibility, linking infected persons with health systems and vice versa. Where potential patients can access care, local facilities must ensure they can appropriately diagnose, treat, and contain disease spread to prevent secondary transmission; where patients cannot readily access facilities, alternate plans must be developed. Here, we use travel time to link facilities and populations at risk of viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) and identify spatial variation in these respective preparedness demands. Methods and findings We used geospatial resources of travel friction, pathogen environmental suitability, and health facilities to determine facility accessibility of any at-risk location within a country. We considered in-country and cross-border movements of exposed populations and highlighted vulnerable populations where current facilities are inaccessible and new infrastructure would reduce travel times. We developed profiles for 43 African countries. Resulting maps demonstrate gaps in health facility accessibility and highlight facilities closest to areas at risk for VHF spillover. For instance, in the Central African Republic, we identified travel times of over 24 h to access a health facility. Some countries had more uniformly short travel times, such as Nigeria, although regional disparities exist. For some populations, including many in Botswana, access to areas at risk for VHF nationally was low but proximity to suitable spillover areas in bordering countries was high. Additional analyses provide insights for considering future resource allocation. We provide a contemporary use case for these analyses for the ongoing Ebola outbreak. Conclusions These maps demonstrate the use of geospatial analytics for subnational preparedness, identifying facilities close to at-risk populations for prioritizing readiness to detect, treat, and respond to cases and highlighting where gaps in health facility accessibility exist. We identified cross-border threats for VHF exposure and demonstrate an opportunity to improve preparedness activities through the use of precision public health methods and data-driven insights for resource allocation as part of a country’s preparedness plans.

Published
2019
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15. Outcomes assessment pitfalls: challenges to quantifying knowledge gain in a sex education game [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 not approved]

Author

Elena Bertozzi, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Swathi Padankatti, and Aparna Sridhar

Subjects
Medicine
Abstract

Background: The use of videogames as a public health tool is rapidly expanding. Accurate assessment of the efficacy of such games is complicated by many factors. We describe challenges associated with measuring the impact of playing a videogame with information about human sexual anatomy and reproduction and discuss motivations for, and solutions to, these challenges. Methods: The My Future Family Game (MFF) is a validated tool for collecting data about family planning intentions which includes information about human anatomy and sexual reproduction. We sought to assess the efficacy of the game as a tool for teaching sexual education using a pre-post model which was deployed in three schools in and around Chennai, India in summer of 2018. Results: The MFF game was successfully modified to collect data about players’ pre-gameplay knowledge of sexual anatomy and processes. The post gameplay assessment process we used did not effectively assess knowledge gain. Designing assessments for games dealing with sexuality presents challenges including: effectively communicating about biological parts and processes, designing usable and intuitive interfaces with minimal text, ensuring that all parts of the process are fun, and integrating assessments into the game in a way that makes them invisible. Conclusion: Games can be an effective means of gathering data about knowledge of sex and reproduction that it is difficult to obtain through other means. Assessing knowledge about human sexual reproduction is complicated by cultural norms and taboos, and technical hurdles which can be addressed through careful design. This study adds to the sparse literature in the field by providing information about pitfalls to avoid and best practices in this evolving area.

Published
2021
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16. Quantifying Inequitable Access to Rapid Burn and Reconstructive Care through Geospatial Mapping

Author

Steven Lo, FRCS Plast, Opoku Ampomah, FRCS Plast, Levi Ankrah, FWACS, Kwame Darko, FWACS, and Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, MPH

Subjects
Surgery, RD1-811
Abstract

Summary:. Time-critical pathologies, such as the care of burn-injured patients, rely on accurate travel time data to plan high-quality service provision. Geospatial modeling, using data from the Malaria Atlas Project, together with census data, permits quantification of the huge global discrepancies in temporal access to burn care between high-income and low-resource settings. In this study, focusing on the United Kingdom and Ghana, we found that a 3-fold population difference exists with, respectively, 95.6% and 29.9% of the population that could access specialist burn care within 1-hour travel time. Solutions to such inequalities include upscaling of infrastructure and specialist personnel, but this is aspirational rather than feasible in most low- to middle-income countries. Mixed models of decentralization of care that leverage eHealth strategies, such as telemedicine, may enhance quality of local burns and reconstructive surgical care through skills transfer, capacity building, and expediting of urgent transfers, while empowering local healthcare communities. By extending specialist burn care coverage through eHealth to 8 district hospitals in rural Ghana, we demonstrate the potential to increase specialist population coverage within 1-hour travel time from 29.9% to 45.3%—equivalent to an additional 5.1 million people.

Published
2020
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17. Variation in life expectancy and mortality by cause among neighbourhoods in King County, WA, USA, 1990–2014: a census tract-level analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Author

Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura, Stubbs, Rebecca W, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Morozoff, Chloe, Callender, Charlton, Finegold, Samuel B, Shirude, Shreya, Flaxman, Abraham D, Laurent, Amy, Kern, Eli, Duchin, Jeffrey S, Fleming, David, Mokdad, Ali H, and Murray, Christopher J L

Published
2017
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18. Spatiotemporal mapping of malaria prevalence in Madagascar using routine surveillance and health survey data

Author

Arambepola, Rohan, Keddie, Suzanne H., Collins, Emma L., Twohig, Katherine A., Amratia, Punam, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Chestnutt, Elisabeth G., Harris, Joseph, Millar, Justin, Rozier, Jennifer, Rumisha, Susan F., Symons, Tasmin L., Vargas-Ruiz, Camilo, Andriamananjara, Mauricette, Rabeherisoa, Saraha, Ratsimbasoa, Arsène C., Howes, Rosalind E., Weiss, Daniel J., Gething, Peter W., and Cameron, Ewan

Published
2020
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21. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

Author

Murray, Christopher J L, Barber, Ryan M, Foreman, Kyle J, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw F, Aboyans, Victor, Abraham, Jerry P, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M, Achoki, Tom, Ackerman, Ilana N, Ademi, Zanfina, Adou, Arsène K, Adsuar, José C, Afshin, Ashkan, Agardh, Emilie E, Alam, Sayed Saidul, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alegretti, Miguel A, Alemu, Zewdie A, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Almazroa, Mohammad A, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ameh, Emmanuel A, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, H Ross, Anderson, Benjamin O, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Al, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Avila, Marco A, Awuah, Baffour, Bachman, Victoria F, Badawi, Alaa, Bahit, Maria C, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lars, Barrero, Lope H, Basu, Arindam, Basu, Sanjay, Basulaiman, Mohammed O, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Benjet, Corina, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benzian, Habib, Bernabé, Eduardo, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Beyene, Tariku J, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bienhoff, Kelly, Bikbov, Boris, Biryukov, Stan, Blore, Jed D, Blosser, Christopher D, Blyth, Fiona M, Bohensky, Megan A, Bolliger, Ian W, Başara, Berrak Bora, Bornstein, Natan M, Bose, Dipan, Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert R A, Boyers, Lindsay N, Brainin, Michael, Brayne, Carol E, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Brenner, Hermann, Briggs, Adam D, Brooks, Peter M, Brown, Jonathan C, Brugha, Traolach S, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Buckle, Geoffrey C, Budke, Christine M, Bulchis, Anne, Bulloch, Andrew G, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R, Carabin, Hélène, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castro, Ruben E, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cavalleri, Fiorella, Çavlin, Alanur, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Charlson, Fiona J, Chen, Honglei, Chen, Wanqing, Chiang, Peggy P, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christophi, Costas A, Cirillo, Massimo, Coates, Matthew M, Coffeng, Luc E, Coggeshall, Megan S, Colistro, Valentina, Colquhoun, Samantha M, Cooke, Graham S, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooper, Leslie T, Coppola, Luis M, Cortinovis, Monica, Criqui, Michael H, Crump, John A, Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia, Danawi, Hadi, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dansereau, Emily, Dargan, Paul I, Davey, Gail, Davis, Adrian, Davitoiu, Dragos V, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Dellavalle, Robert P, Deribe, Kebede, Derrett, Sarah, Jarlais, Don C Des, Dessalegn, Muluken, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Diaz-Torné, Cesar, Dicker, Daniel, Ding, Eric L, Dokova, Klara, Dorsey, E Ray, Driscoll, Tim R, Duan, Leilei, Duber, Herbert C, Ebel, Beth E, Edmond, Karen M, Elshrek, Yousef M, Endres, Matthias, Ermakov, Sergey P, Erskine, Holly E, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fay, Derek F, Feigin, Valery L, Felson, David T, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Jefferson G, Ferrari, Alize J, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Flaxman, Abraham D, Fleming, Thomas D, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fowkes, F Gerry R, Paleo, Urbano Fra., Franklin, Richard C, Fürst, Thomas, Gabbe, Belinda, Gaffikin, Lynne, Gankpé, Fortuné G, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gething, Peter, Gibney, Katherine B, Giroud, Maurice, Giussani, Giorgia, Dantes, Hector Gomez, Gona, Philimon, González-Medina, Diego, Gosselin, Richard A, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Graetz, Nicholas, Gugnani, Harish C, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gutiérrez, Reyna A, Haagsma, Juanita, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hagan, Holly, Halasa, Yara A, Hamadeh, Randah R, Hamavid, Hannah, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hancock, Jamie, Hankey, Graeme J, Hansen, Gillian M, Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I, Hay, Roderick J, Heredia-Pi, Ileana B, Heuton, Kyle R, Heydarpour, Pouria, Higashi, Hideki, Hijar, Martha, Hoek, Hans W, Hoffman, Howard J, Hosgood, H Dean, Hossain, Mazeda, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Hsairi, Mohamed, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, Cheng, Huang, John J, Husseini, Abdullatif, Huynh, Chantal, Iannarone, Marissa L, Iburg, Kim M, Innos, Kaire, Inoue, Manami, Islami, Farhad, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jarvis, Deborah L, Jassal, Simerjot K, Jee, Sun Ha, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jiang, Ying, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Karch, André, Karema, Corine K, Karimkhani, Chante, Karthikeyan, Ganesan, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazanjan, Konstantin, Kemp, Andrew H, Kengne, Andre P, Keren, Andre, Khader, Yousef S, Khalifa, Shams Eldin A, Khan, Ejaz A, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khang, Young-Ho, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kim, Yunjin, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kivipelto, Miia, Knibbs, Luke D, Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Krishnaswami, Sanjay, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Kuipers, Ernst J, Kulkarni, Chanda, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kumar, G Anil, Kyu, Hmwe H, Lai, Taavi, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C, Larsson, Anders, Lawrynowicz, Alicia E B, Leasher, Janet L, Leigh, James, Leung, Ricky, Levitz, Carly E, Li, Bin, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Lim, Stephen S, Lind, Maggie, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, Lofgren, Katherine T, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Looker, Katharine J, Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Robyn M, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A, Ma, Stefan, Macintyre, Michael F, Mackay, Mark T, Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Marcenes, Wagner, Margolis, David J, Margono, Christopher, Marzan, Melvin B, Masci, Joseph R, Mashal, Mohammad T, Matzopoulos, Richard, Mayosi, Bongani M, Mazorodze, Tasara T, Mcgill, Neil W, Mcgrath, John J, Mckee, Martin, Mclain, Abigail, Meaney, Peter A, Medina, Catalina, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mekonnen, Wubegzier, Melaku, Yohannes A, Meltzer, Michele, Memish, Ziad A, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Mhimbira, Francis A, Micha, Renata, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mitchell, Philip B, Mock, Charles N, Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed, Mohammad, Karzan A, Mokdad, Ali H, Mola, Glen L D, Monasta, Lorenzo, Hernandez, Julio C Montañez, Montico, Marcella, Montine, Thomas J, Mooney, Meghan D, Moore, Ami R, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moran, Andrew E, Mori, Rintaro, Moschandreas, Joanna, Moturi, Wilkister N, Moyer, Madeline L, Mozaffarian, Dariush, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Mullany, Erin C, Murdoch, Michele E, Murray, Joseph, Murthy, Kinnari S, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S, Naldi, Luigi, Nand, Devina, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K M Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Neupane, Sudan P, Newton, Charles R, Ng, Marie, Ngalesoni, Frida N, Nguyen, Grant, Nisar, Muhammad I, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F, Norman, Rosana E, Norrving, Bo, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Ohno, Summer L, Olusanya, Bolajoko O, Opio, John Nelson, Ortblad, Katrina, Ortiz, Alberto, Pain, Amanda W, Pandian, Jeyaraj D, Panelo, Carlo Irwin A, Papachristou, Christina, Park, Eun-Kee, Park, Jae-Hyun, Patten, Scott B, Patton, George C, Paul, Vinod K, Pavlin, Boris I, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M, Perez-Padilla, Rogelio, Perez-Ruiz, Fernando, Perico, Norberto, Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Peterson, Carrie B, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael R, Phillips, Bryan K, Phillips, David E, Piel, Frédéric B, Plass, Dietrich, Poenaru, Dan, Polinder, Suzanne, Pope, Daniel, Popova, Svetlana, Poulton, Richie G, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prasad, Noela M, Pullan, Rachel L, Qato, Dima M, Quistberg, D Alex, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahman, Sajjad U, Raju, Murugesan, Rana, Saleem M, Razavi, Homie, Reddy, K Srinath, Refaat, Amany, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Resnikoff, Serge, Ribeiro, Antonio L, Richardson, Lee, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Roberts, D Allen, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Roth, Gregory A, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rothstein, David H, Rowley, Jane T, Roy, Nobhojit, Ruhago, George M, Saeedi, Mohammad Y, Saha, Sukanta, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sampson, Uchechukwu K A, Sanabria, Juan R, Sandar, Logan, Santos, Itamar S, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawhney, Monika, Scarborough, Peter, Schneider, Ione J, Schöttker, Ben, Schumacher, Austin E, Schwebel, David C, Scott, James G, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Serina, Peter T, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Shackelford, Katya A, Shaheen, Amira, Shahraz, Saeid, Levy, Teresa Shamah, Shangguan, Siyi, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shinohara, Yukito, Shiri, Rahman, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Shrime, Mark G, Sigfusdottir, Inga D, Silberberg, Donald H, Simard, Edgar P, Sindi, Shireen, Singh, Abhishek, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Lavanya, Skirbekk, Vegard, Slepak, Erica Leigh, Sliwa, Karen, Soneji, Samir, Søreide, Kjetil, Soshnikov, Sergey, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki, Stein, Dan J, Stein, Murray B, Steiner, Caitlyn, Steiner, Timothy J, Stevens, Antony, Stewart, Andrea, Stovner, Lars J, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Sunguya, Bruno F, Swaminathan, Soumya, Swaroop, Mamta, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Takahashi, Ken, Tandon, Nikhil, Tanne, David, Tanner, Marcel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taylor, Hugh R, Ao, Braden J Te, Tediosi, Fabrizio, Temesgen, Awoke M, Templin, Tara, Ten Have, Margreet, Tenkorang, Eric Y, Terkawi, Abdullah S, Thomson, Blake, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Thrift, Amanda G, Thurston, George D, Tillmann, Taavi, Tonelli, Marcello, Topouzis, Fotis, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X, Trillini, Matias, Truelsen, Thomas, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis, Tuzcu, Emin M, Uchendu, Uche S, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Uzun, Selen B, Van Brakel, Wim H, Van De Vijver, Steven, van Gool, Coen H, Van Os, Jim, Vasankari, Tommi J, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy V, Vollset, Stein Emil, Wagner, Gregory R, Wagner, Joseph, Waller, Stephen G, Wan, Xia, Wang, Haidong, Wang, Jianli, Wang, Linhong, Warouw, Tati S, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Wenzhi, Wang, Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Thomas N, Wolfe, Charles D, Wolock, Timothy M, Woolf, Anthony D, Wulf, Sarah, Wurtz, Brittany, Xu, Gelin, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Ye, Pengpeng, Yentür, Gökalp K, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaki, Maysaa E, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zonies, David, Zou, Xiaonong, Salomon, Joshua A, Lopez, Alan D, and Vos, Theo

Published
2015
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22. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Vos, Theo, Barber, Ryan M, Bell, Brad, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Biryukov, Stan, Bolliger, Ian, Charlson, Fiona, Davis, Adrian, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dicker, Daniel, Duan, Leilei, Erskine, Holly, Feigin, Valery L, Ferrari, Alize J, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Fleming, Thomas, Graetz, Nicholas, Guinovart, Caterina, Haagsma, Juanita, Hansen, Gillian M, Hanson, Sarah Wulf, Heuton, Kyle R, Higashi, Hideki, Kassebaum, Nicholas, Kyu, Hmwe, Laurie, Evan, Liang, Xiofeng, Lofgren, Katherine, Lozano, Rafael, MacIntyre, Michael F, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Naghavi, Mohsen, Nguyen, Grant, Odell, Shaun, Ortblad, Katrina, Roberts, David Allen, Roth, Gregory A, Sandar, Logan, Serina, Peter T, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Steiner, Caitlyn, Thomas, Bernadette, Vollset, Stein Emil, Whiteford, Harvey, Wolock, Timothy M, Ye, Pengpeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Ãvila, Marco A, Aasvang, Gunn Marit, Abbafati, Cristiana, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abd-Allah, Foad, Aziz, Muna I Abdel, Abera, Semaw F, Aboyans, Victor, Abraham, Jerry P, Abraham, Biju, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Aburto, Tania C, Achoki, Tom, Ackerman, Ilana N, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Adou, Arsène K, Adsuar, Josef C, Arnlov, Johan, Agardh, Emilie E, Al Khabouri, Mazin J, Alam, Sayed Saidul, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alegretti, Miguel A, Aleman, Alicia V, Alemu, Zewdie A, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francois, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Ameli, Omid, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O, Anderson, H. Ross, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Apfel, Henry, Arsenijevic, Valentain S Arsic, Artaman, Al, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Atkinson, Charles, Badawi, Alaa, Bahit, Maria C, Bakfalouni, Talal, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Balalla, Shivanthi, Banerjee, Amitava, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lars, Barrero, Lope H, Basu, Sanjay, Basu, Arindam, Baxter, Amanda, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Benjet, Corina, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benzian, Habib, Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku J, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Bienhoff, Kelly, Bikbov, Boris, Abdulhak, Aref Bin, Blore, Jed D, Blyth, Fiona M, Bohensky, Megan A, Basara, Berrak Bora, Borges, Guilherme, Bornstein, Natan M, Bose, Dipan, Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert R, Boyers, Lindsay N, Brainin, Michael, Brauer, Michael, Brayne, Carol EG, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas JK, Brenner, Hermann, Briggs, Adam DM, Brooks, Peter M, Brown, Jonathan, Brugha, Traolach S, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Buckle, Geoffrey C, Bukhman, Gene, Bulloch, Andrew G, Burch, Michael, Burnett, Richard, Cardenas, Rosario, Cabral, Norberto L, Nonato, Ismael R Campos, Campuzano, Julio C, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chen, Honglei, Chen, Wanqing, Chiang, Peggy P, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christophi, Costas A, Chugh, Sumeet S, Cirillo, Massimo, Coggeshall, Megan, Cohen, Aaron, Colistro, Valentina, Colquhoun, Samantha M, Contreras, Alejandra G, Cooper, Leslie T, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooperrider, Kimberly, Coresh, Josef, Cortinovis, Monica, Criqui, Michael H, Crump, John A, Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia, Dandona, Rakhi, Dandona, Lalit, Dansereau, Emily, Dantes, Hector G, Dargan, Paul I, Davey, Gail, Davitoiu, Dragos V, Dayama, Anand, De la Cruz-Gongora, Vanessa, de la Vega, Shelley F, De Leo, Diego, del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Dellavalle, Robert P, Deribe, Kebede, Derrett, Sarah, Des Jarlais, Don C, Dessalegn, Muluken, deVeber, Gabrielle A, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Diaz-Torne, Cesar, Ding, Eric L, Dokova, Klara, Dorsey, E R, Driscoll, Tim R, Duber, Herbert, Durrani, Adnan M, Edmond, Karen M, Ellenbogen, Richard G, Endres, Matthias, Ermakov, Sergey P, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Fahimi, Saman, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fay, Derek FJ, Felson, David T, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Jefferson G, Ferri, Cluesa P, Flaxman, Abraham, Foigt, Nataliya, Foreman, Kyle J, Fowkes, F Gerry R, Franklin, Richard C, Furst, Thomas, Futran, Neal D, Gabbe, Belinda J, Gankpe, Fortune G, Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gibney, Katherine B, Gillum, Richard F, Ginawi, Ibrahim A, Giroud, Maurice, Giussani, Giorgia, Goenka, Shifalika, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, de Cosio, Teresita Gonzalez, Gosselin, Richard A, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Guerrant, Richard l, Gugnani, Harish C, Gunnell, David, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Rahul, Gutierrez, Reyna A, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hagan, Holly, Halasa, Yara, Hamadeh, Randah R, Hamavid, Hannah, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J, Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Roderick J, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Pi, Ileana B Heredia, Heydarpour, Pouria, Hijar, Martha, Hoek, Hans W, Hoffman, Howard J, Hornberger, John C, Hosgood, H. Dean, Hossain, Mazeda, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Hsairi, Mohamed, Hu, Howard, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, John J, Huang, Cheng, Huiart, Laetitia, Husseini, Abdullatif, Iannarone, Marissa, Iburg, Kim M, Innos, Kaire, Inoue, Manami, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jassal, Simerjot K, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jiang, Ying, Jonas, Jost B, Joseph, Jonathan, Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Karch, Andre, Karimkhani, Chante, Karthikeyan, Ganesan, Katz, Ronit, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kemp, Andrew H, Kengne, Andre P, Khader, Yousef S, Khalifa, Shams Eldin AH, Khan, Ejaz A, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khang, Young-Ho, Khonelidze, Irma, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kissela, Brett M, Kivipelto, Miia, Knibbs, Luke, Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Kramer, Alexander, Kravchenko, Michael, Krishnamurthi, Rita V, Krishnaswami, Sanjay, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Kuipers, Ernst J, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, G Anil, Kwan, Gene F, Lai, Taavi, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C, Larson, Heidi, Larsson, Anders, Lawrynowicz, Alicia EB, Leasher, Janet L, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leigh, James, Leung, Ricky, Levi, Miriam, Li, Bin, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, liang, Juan, Lim, Stephen, Lin, Hsien-Ho, Lind, Margaret, Lindsay, M Patrice, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Shiwei, Lloyd, Belinda K, Ohno, Summer Lockett, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Looker, Katharine J, Lopez, Alan D, Lopez-Olmedo, Nancy, Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie, Lotufo, Paulo A, Low, Nicola, Lucas, Robyn M, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A, Ma, Jixiang, Ma, Stefan, Mackay, Mark T, Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mapoma, Christopher C, Marcenes, Wagner, March, Lyn M, Margono, Chris, Marks, Guy B, Marzan, Melvin B, Masci, Joseph R, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Matzopoulos, Richard G, Mayosi, Bongani M, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGill, Neil W, McGrath, John J, McKee, Martin, McLain, Abby, McMahon, Brian J, Meaney, Peter A, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Mekonnen, Wubegzier, Melaku, Yohannes A, Meltzer, Michele, Memish, Ziad A, Mensah, George, Meretoja, Atte, Mhimbira, Francis A, Micha, Renata, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mitchell, Philip B, Mock, Charles N, Moffitt, Terrie E, Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed, Mohammad, Karzan A, Mokdad, Ali H, Mola, Glen L, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Montine, Thomas J, Moore, Ami R, Moran, Andrew E, Morawska, Lidia, Mori, Rintaro, Moschandreas, Joanna, Moturi, Wilkister N, Moyer, Madeline, Mozaffarian, Dariush, Mueller, Ulrich O, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Murdoch, Michele E, Murray, Joseph, Murthy, Kinnari S, Naghavi, Paria, Nahas, Ziad, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S, Naldi, Luigi, Nand, Devina, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K.M. Venkat, Nash, Denis, Nejjari, Chakib, Neupane, Sudan P, Newman, Lori M, Newton, Charles R, Ng, Marie, Ngalesoni, Frida N, Nhung, Nguyen T, Nisar, Muhammad I, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F, Norman, Rosana E, Norrving, Bo, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Opio, John Nelson, Ortiz, Alberto, Pandian, Jeyaraj D, Panelo, Carlo Irwin A, Papachristou, Christina, Park, Eun-Kee, Parry, Charles D, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Patten, Scott B, Paul, Vinod K, Pavlin, Boris I, Pearce, Neil, Pedraza, Lilia S, Pellegrini, Carlos A, Pereira, David M, Perez-Ruiz, Fernando P, Perico, Norberto, Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Peterson, Carrie B, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael R, Phillips, David, Phillips, Bryan, Piel, Frederic B, Plass, Dietrich, Poenaru, Dan, Polanczyk, Guilherme V, Polinder, Suzanne, Pope, C A, Popova, Svetlana, Poulton, Richie G, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prasad, Noela M, Qato, Dima, Quistberg, D A, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Sajjad ur, Raju, Murugesan, Rakovac, Ivo, Rana, Saleem M, Razavi, Homie, Refaat, Amany, Rehm, Jurgen, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Resnikoff, Serge, Ribeiro, Antonio L, Riccio, Patricia M, Richardson, Lee, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Riederer, Anne M, Robinson, Margot, Roca, Anna, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Roy, Nobhojit, Ruhago, George M, Sabin, Nsanzimana, Sacco, Ralph L, Ksoreide, Kjetil, Saha, Sukanta, Sahathevan, Ramesh, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Sanabria, Juan R, Sanchez-Riera, Lidia, Santos, Itamar S, Satpathy, Maheswar, Saunders, James E, Sawhney, Monika, Saylan, Mete I, Scarborough, Peter, Schoettker, Ben, Schneider, Ione JC, Schwebel, David C, Scott, James G, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Serdar, Berrin, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Shackelford, Katya, Shaheen, Amira, Shahraz, Saeid, Levy, Teresa Shamah, Shangguan, Siyi, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shepard, Donald S, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shinohara, Yukito, Shiri, Rahman, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Shrime, Mark G, Sigfusdottir, Inga D, Silberberg, Donald H, Simard, Edgar P, Sindi, Shireen, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Lavanya, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soljak, Michael, Soneji, Samir, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Speyer, Peter, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stoeckl, Heidi, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Steckling, Nadine, Stein, Murray B, Stein, Dan J, Steiner, Timothy J, Stewart, Andrea, Stork, Eden, Stovner, Lars J, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Sturua, Lela, Sunguya, Bruno F, Swaroop, Mamta, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Takahashi, Ken, Tan, Feng, Tandon, Nikhil, Tanne, David, Tanner, Marcel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taylor, Hugh R, Te Ao, Braden J, Temesgen, Awoke Misganaw, Have, Margreet Ten, Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Theadom, Alice M, Thomas, Elissa, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Thrift, Amanda G, Tleyjeh, Imad M, Tonelli, Marcello, Topouzis, Fotis, Towbin, Jeffrey A, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X, Trasande, Leonardo, Trillini, Matias, Truelsen, Thomas, Trujillo, Ulises, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis, Tuzcu, Emin M, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Uzun, Selen B, van Brakel, Wim H, van de Vijver, Steven, Dingenen, Rita Van, van Gool, Coen H, Varakin, Yuri Y, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vavilala, Monica S, Veerman, Lennert J, Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vijayakumar, Lakshmi, Villalpando, Salvador, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy V, Waller, Stephen, Wallin, Mitchell T, Wan, Xia, Wang, Linhong, Wang, JianLi, Wang, Yanping, Warouw, Tati S, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Werdecker, Andrea, Wessells, K. Ryan R, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Williams, Thomas N, Woldeyohannes, Solomon M, Wolfe, Charles DA, Wong, John Q, Wong, Haidong, Woolf, Anthony D, Wright, Jonathan L, Wurtz, Brittany, Xu, Gelin, Yang, Gonghuan, Yano, Yuichiro, Yenesew, Muluken A, Yentur, Gokalp K, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Kim, Kim Yun, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Zhang, Yong, Zhao, Zheng, Zhao, Yong, Zhu, Jun, Zonies, David, Zunt, Joseph R, Salomon, Joshua A, and Murray, Christopher JL

Published
2015
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25. Collecting family planning intentions and providing reproductive health information using a tablet-based video game in India [version 2; referees: 2 approved]

Author

Elena Bertozzi, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Praveen Kulkarni, and Aparna Sridhar

Subjects
Medicine
Abstract

Background: In response to a Grand Challenges in Global Health call for action to collect data about family planning intentions and increase the uptake of family planning methods in India, our team designed, developed, and piloted the My Future Family video game in Karnataka Province. The game educates adolescents about human sexuality and reproduction while asking players when they would like to achieve five important family planning milestones. Participants were also asked to report who influences them the most when making family planning decisions. Methods: Focus groups were conducted and the resulting data used to design the game which was iteratively tested and then piloted in 11 schools in rural and urban areas of southern India. Data was collected throughout gameplay and cross-checked with paper questionnaires. Results: In August 2017, we successfully piloted the game with 382 adolescents and validated its efficacy both as an educational tool and as an innovative means of accurate data collection. Conclusion: It has historically been problematic to gather accurate data about adolescents in India on this culturally sensitive topic for a variety of reasons. These include difficulties obtaining consent, developing appropriate survey methods, and framing questions in language that young people can understand. Our game met these challenges by working within a single school system with approval from senior administration, delivering information via a game environment which freed players from societal constraints, and communicating information via images and audio in addition to text in both English and Kannada (the local language).

Published
2018
Full Text
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26. Collecting family planning intentions and providing reproductive health information using a tablet-based video game in India [version 1; referees: 2 approved]

Author

Elena Bertozzi, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Praveen Kulkarni, and Aparna Sridhar

Subjects
Medicine
Abstract

Background: In response to a Grand Challenges in Global Health call for action to collect data about family planning intentions and increase the uptake of family planning methods in India, our team designed, developed, and piloted the My Future Family video game in Karnataka Province. The game educates adolescents about human sexuality and reproduction while asking players when they would like to achieve five important family planning milestones. Participants were also asked to report who influences them the most when making family planning decisions. Methods: Focus groups were conducted and the resulting data used to design the game which was iteratively tested and then piloted in 11 schools in rural and urban areas of southern India. Data was collected throughout gameplay and cross-checked with paper questionnaires. Results: In August 2018, we successfully piloted the game with 382 adolescents and validated its efficacy both as an educational tool and as an innovative means of accurate data collection. Conclusion: It has historically been problematic to gather accurate data about adolescents in India on this culturally sensitive topic for a variety of reasons. These include difficulties obtaining consent, developing appropriate survey methods, and framing questions in language that young people can understand. Our game met these challenges by working within a single school system with approval from senior administration, delivering information via a game environment, which freed players from societal constraints, and communicating information via images and audio in addition to text in both English and Kannada (the local language).

Published
2018
Full Text
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27. Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Coggeshall, Megan S, Shackelford, Katya A, Steiner, Caitlyn, Heuton, Kyle R, Gonzalez-Medina, Diego, Barber, Ryan, Huynh, Chantal, Dicker, Daniel, Templin, Tara, Wolock, Timothy M, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, José C, Agardh, Emilie E, Akena, Dickens, Alasfoor, Deena, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J, Alla, François, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad A, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Antonio, Carl A T, Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Ali, Asad, Majed Masoud, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Basu, Arindam, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku J, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Bin Abdulhak, Aref, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Bose, Dipan, Breitborde, Nicholas, Cárdenas, Rosario, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Chang, Jung-Chen, Che, Xuan, Christophi, Costas A, Chugh, Sumeet S, Cirillo, Massimo, Colquhoun, Samantha M, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyrus, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Degenhardt, Louisa, De Leo, Diego, del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Deribe, Kebede, Dessalegn, Muluken, deVeber, Gabrielle A, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Dorrington, Rob E, Driscoll, Tim R, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Esteghamati, Alireza, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Farzadfar, Farshad, Felicio, Manuela Mendonca, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, de Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, França, Elisabeth B, Gaffikin, Lynne, Gambashidze, Ketevan, Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho, Garcia, Ana C, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gibney, Katherine B, Giroud, Maurice, Glaser, Elizabeth L, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, González-Castell, Dinorah, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J, Harb, Hilda L, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I, Pi, Ileana B Heredia, Hoek, Hans W, Hosgood, H Dean, Hoy, Damian G, Husseini, Abdullatif, Idrisov, Bulat T, Innos, Kaire, Inoue, Manami, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jahangir, Eiman, Jee, Sun Ha, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kabagambe, Edmond Kato, Kan, Haidong, Karam, Nadim E, Karch, André, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazanjan, Konstantin, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kemp, Andrew H, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khan, Ejaz Ahmed, Khang, Young-Ho, Knibbs, Luke, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kulkarni, Chanda, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kumar, G Anil, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Kwan, Gene, Lai, Taavi, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lam, Hilton, Lansingh, Van C, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leigh, James, Leinsalu, Mall, Leung, Ricky, Li, Xiaohong, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Liang, Juan, Liang, Xiaofeng, Lim, Stephen S, Lin, Hsien-Ho, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, London, Stephanie J, Lotufo, Paulo A, Ma, Jixiang, Ma, Stefan, Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro, Mainoo, Nana Kwaku, Majdan, Marek, Mapoma, Christopher Chabila, Marcenes, Wagner, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mokdad, Ali H, Mola, Glen Liddell, Monasta, Lorenzo, de la Cruz Monis, Jonathan, Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez, Moore, Ami R, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Mori, Rintaro, Mueller, Ulrich O, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S, Nand, Devina, Nangia, Vinay, Nash, Denis, Nejjari, Chakib, Nelson, Robert G, Neupane, Sudan Prasad, Newton, Charles R, Ng, Marie, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J, Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Olusanya, Bolajoko O, Omer, Saad B, Opio, John Nelson, Orisakwe, Orish Ebere, Pandian, Jeyaraj D, Papachristou, Christina, Park, Jae-Hyun, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Patten, Scott B, Paul, Vinod K, Pavlin, Boris Igor, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Poenaru, Dan, Polanczyk, Guilherme V, Polinder, Suzanne, Pope, Dan, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qato, Dima, Quistberg, D Alex, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, ur Rahman, Sajjad, Raju, Murugesan, Rana, Saleem M, Refaat, Amany, Ronfani, Luca, Roy, Nobhojit, Pimienta, Tania Georgina Sánchez, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Salomon, Joshua A, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Santos, Itamar S, Sawhney, Monika, Sayinzoga, Felix, Schneider, Ione J C, Schumacher, Austin, Schwebel, David C, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Shakh-Nazarova, Marina, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silberberg, Donald H, Silva, Andrea P, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Sturua, Lela, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Tan, Feng, Teixeira, Carolina Maria, Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Tirschwell, David L, Towbin, Jeffrey A, Tran, Bach X, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis, Uchendu, Uche S, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vallely, Andrew J, van Gool, Coen H, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vavilala, Monica S, Venketasubramanian, N, Villalpando, Salvador, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vos, Theo, Waller, Stephen, Wang, Haidong, Wang, Linhong, Wang, XiaoRong, Wang, Yanping, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wong, John Q, Wordofa, Muluemebet Abera, Xu, Gelin, Yang, Yang C, Yano, Yuichiro, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Zou, Xiao Nong, Lopez, Alan D, Naghavi, Mohsen, Murray, Christopher J L, and Lozano, Rafael

Published
2014
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28. Mapping Malaria by Sharing Spatial Information Between Incidence and Prevalence Data Sets

Author

Anita Nandi, Peter W. Gething, Rohan Arambepola, Susan F. Rumisha, Emma L. Collins, Daniel J. Weiss, Punam Amratia, Rosalind E. Howes, Tim C.D. Lucas, Katherine E. Battle, Penelope A. Hancock, Suzanne H. Keddie, Ewan Cameron, Andre Python, Katherine A. Twohig, Michele Nguyen, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, and Elisabeth G. Chestnutt

Subjects
Statistics and Probability, Computer science, Approximation error, Incidence (epidemiology), Polygon, Covariate, Statistics, Regression analysis, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, Baseline (configuration management), Spatial analysis, Gaussian random field
Abstract

As malaria incidence decreases and more countries move towards elimination, maps of malaria risk in low-prevalence areas are increasingly needed. For low-burden areas, disaggregation regression models have been developed to estimate risk at high spatial resolution from routine surveillance reports aggregated by administrative unit polygons. However, in areas with both routine surveillance data and prevalence surveys, models that make use of the spatial information from prevalence point-surveys might make more accurate predictions. Using case studies in Indonesia, Senegal and Madagascar, we compare the out-of-sample mean absolute error for two methods for incorporating point-level, spatial information into disaggregation regression models. The first simply fits a binomial-likelihood, logit-link, Gaussian random field to prevalence point-surveys to create a new covariate. The second is a multi-likelihood model that is fitted jointly to prevalence point-surveys and polygon incidence data. We find that in most cases there is no difference in mean absolute error between models. In only one case, did the new models perform the best. More generally, our results demonstrate that combining these types of data has the potential to reduce absolute error in estimates of malaria incidence but that simpler baseline models should always be fitted as a benchmark.

Published
2021
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31. 1068 Racial and ethnic disparities in pregnancy related to SARS-CoV-2 infection

Author

Ukachi Emeruwa, Samsiya Ona, Ka Kahe, Cheng Chen, Sbaa K. Syeda, Clara Bertozzi-Villa, Brittany Arditi, Jessica Spiegelman, Alexander Melamed, Russell S. Miller, and Cynthia Gyamfi-Bannerman

Subjects
Pregnancy, education.field_of_study, business.industry, Population, Confounding, Ethnic group, Obstetrics and Gynecology, Retrospective cohort study, Odds ratio, Logistic regression, medicine.disease, Exact test, Saturday, January 30, 2021 • 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM, Obstetrics and Gynaecology, medicine, Poster Session IV, education, business, Demography
Abstract

Objective: To describe racial/ethnic differences in COVID-19 disease and perinatal outcomes among pregnant women delivering during the COVID-19 pandemic. Study Design: This is a retrospective cohort analysis of pregnant women delivering at a single institution in NYC who were universally tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR or serology from March 13 to August 5, 2020. Women were classified by self-reported race/ethnicity into five groups - non-Hispanic Black ("Black"), non-Hispanic White ("White"), Hispanic, Asian and "other". Data on baseline characteristics, SARS-CoV-2 presentation and outcomes, and perinatal outcomes were collected and examined across groups of race/ethnicity in SARS-CoV-2 infected and uninfected women using Wilcoxon rank sum test for continuous variables and Fisher's exact test for categorical variables. The odds ratios (OR) for SARS-CoV-2 positivity and cesarean delivery were determined by logistic regression models with adjustment for demographic, medical and obstetric factors. Result(s): Of 2489 women who delivered, 1338 (53.8%) were Hispanic, 531 (21.3%) White, 252 (10.1%) Black, 127 (5.1%) Asian and 241 (9.7%) "other". The SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate was 11.1% (n=276). There was a significantly higher SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among Hispanic women compared to White women (15.6% vs 6.0%, p

Published
2021
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32. 1050 Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on initial obstetric ultrasounds in New York City

Author

Lynn L. Simpson, Clara Bertozzi-Villa, Karin Fuchs, Brittany Arditi, Desmond Sutton, Sbaa K. Syeda, and Caitlin Baptiste

Subjects
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), business.industry, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Obstetrics and Gynecology, Obstetric ultrasound, medicine.disease, Saturday, January 30, 2021 • 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM, Pandemic, Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Poster Session IV, Medicine, Medical emergency, business
Published
2021
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33. Impact of mass drug administration campaigns depends on interaction with seasonal human movement

Author

Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Philip A. Eckhoff, Edward Allen Wenger, and Jaline Gerardin

Subjects
Health (social science), Human Migration, 030231 tropical medicine, Biology, law.invention, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Malaria transmission, law, Dry season, Malaria Vaccines, medicine, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Mass drug administration, skin and connective tissue diseases, Mathematical modelling, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, General Medicine, Original Articles, Models, Theoretical, medicine.disease, Malaria, Transmission (mechanics), Seasonal human movement, Seasons, Demography, Program Evaluation
Abstract

Background Mass drug administration (MDA) is a control and elimination tool for treating infectious diseases. For malaria, it is widely accepted that conducting MDA during the dry season results in the best outcomes. However, seasonal movement of populations into and out of MDA target areas is common in many places and could potentially fundamentally limit the ability of MDA campaigns to achieve elimination. Methods A mathematical model was used to simulate malaria transmission in two villages connected to a high-risk area into and out of which 10% of villagers traveled seasonally. MDA was given only in the villages. Prevalence reduction under various possible timings of MDA and seasonal travel was predicted. Results MDA is most successful when distributed outside the traveling season and during the village low-transmission season. MDA is least successful when distributed during the traveling season and when traveling overlaps with the peak transmission season in the high-risk area. Mistiming MDA relative to seasonal travel resulted in much poorer outcomes than mistiming MDA relative to the peak transmission season within the villages. Conclusions Seasonal movement patterns of high-risk groups should be taken into consideration when selecting the optimum timing of MDA campaigns.

Published
2018

36. 587 Disparities in COVID-19 incidence and outcomes by insurance type

Author

Ukachi N. Emeruwa, Samsiya Ona, Sbaa K. Syeda, Clara Bertozzi-Villa, Brittany Arditi, Cynthia Gyamfi-Bannerman, Cheng Chen, and Timothy Wen

Subjects
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, Poster Session II, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), business.industry, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Environmental health, Incidence (epidemiology), Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Obstetrics and Gynecology, Medicine, Friday, January 29, 2021 • 8:30 AM - 9:30 AM, Insurance type, business
Published
2021

37. Expanded HIV Testing and Linkage to Care: Conventional vs. Point-of-Care Testing and Assignment of Patient Notification and Linkage to Care to an HIV Care Program

Author

Clara Bertozzi-Villa, Nikhil Prachand, Sachin D. Shah, Sameer Badlani, David Pitrak, Heather Hyland, Mai T. Pho, Nanette Benbow, Sara Bares, John A. Schneider, Rebecca Eavou, Michelle Taylor, Rachel McFadden, and James Walter

Subjects
Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Pediatrics, Adolescent, Point-of-Care Systems, Point-of-care testing, HIV Infections, 01 natural sciences, Men who have sex with men, Young Adult, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, medicine, Humans, Seroprevalence, 030212 general & internal medicine, Other Settings, 0101 mathematics, Young adult, Medical diagnosis, Chicago, Linkage (software), Clinical Laboratory Techniques, business.industry, 010102 general mathematics, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, AIDS Serodiagnosis, Continuity of Patient Care, Middle Aged, Test (assessment), Family medicine, Female, business, Viral load
Abstract

Objective. The University of Chicago Medicine (UCM) led the Expanded Testing and Linkage to Care (X-TLC) program for disproportionately affected populations on the South Side of Chicago. The X-TLC program aimed to expand routine HIV testing to high-prevalence communities with disproportionately affected populations (i.e., minority men and women, men who have sex with men, and intravenous drug users) according to CDC guidelines at multiple clinical sites. Methods. The X-TLC program used standard blood-based laboratory testing vs. point-of-care rapid testing or rapid laboratory testing with point-of-care results notification. Site coordinators and the linkage-to-care coordinator at UCM oversaw testing, test notification, and linkage to care. Results. From February 1, 2011, through December 31, 2013, the X-TLC program completed 75,345 HIV tests on 67,153 unique patients. Of the total tests, 48,044 (63.8%) were performed on patients who self-identified as African American and 6,606 (8.8%) were performed on patients who self-identified as Hispanic. Of the 67,153 patients tested, 395 (0.6%) tested positive and 176 (0.3%) were previously unaware of their HIV-positive status. Seroprevalence was even higher for EDs, where 127 of 12,957 patients tested positive for HIV (1.0% seroprevalence), than for other patient care sites, including for new diagnoses, where 50 of 12,957 patients tested positive for HIV (0.4% seroprevalence). Of the 176 newly diagnosed patients, 166 of 173 (96.0%) patients who were still alive when testing was complete received their test results, and 148 of the 166 patients who were eligible for care (89.0%) were linked to care. Patients linked to X-TLC physicians did well with respect to the continuum of care: 77 of 123 (62.6%) patients achieved HIV viral load of Conclusion. Lead organizations such as UCM were able to assist and oversee HIV screening and linkage to care for HIV patients diagnosed at community sites. HIV screening and linkage to care can be accomplished by incorporating standard testing for HIV into routine medical care.

Published
2016
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38. Populations adapt to fluctuating selection using derived and ancestral allelic diversity

Author

Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Edo Kussell, Mark J. Rocco, and Wei-Hsiang Lin

Subjects
Genetics, Mutation rate, education.field_of_study, Lineage (evolution), Population, Biology, Frameshift mutation, Evolutionary biology, Genetic variation, Allele, Adaptation, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, education, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Selection (genetic algorithm)
Abstract

Populations can adapt to changing environments by using allelic diversity, yet whether diversity is recently derived or ancestral is often debated. While evolution could productively use both types of diversity in a changing environment, their relative frequency has not been quantified. We address this question experimentally using budding yeast strains that harbor a tandem repeat-containing URA3 gene, which we expose to cyclical selection and counter-selection. We characterize and quantify the dynamics of frameshift events in the URA3 gene in eight populations over twelve cycles of selection and find that ancestral alleles account for 10 – 20% of all adaptive events. Using a general model of fluctuating selection, we determine how these results depend on mutation rates, population sizes, and fluctuation timescales. We quantify the contribution of derived alleles to the adaptation process using the de novo mutation rate along the population’s ancestral lineage, a novel measure that is applicable in a wide range of settings. We find that the adaptive dynamics undergoes a sharp transition from selection on ancestral alleles to selection on derived alleles as fluctuation timescales increase. Our results demonstrate that fluctuations can select between different modes of adaptation over evolutionary timescales.

Published
2015
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39. Maps and metrics of insecticide-treated net access, use, and nets-per-capita in Africa from 2000-2020.

Author

Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Bever, Caitlin A., Koenker, Hannah, Weiss, Daniel J., Vargas-Ruiz, Camilo, Nandi, Anita K., Gibson, Harry S., Harris, Joseph, Battle, Katherine E., Rumisha, Susan F., Keddie, Suzanne, Amratia, Punam, Arambepola, Rohan, Cameron, Ewan, Chestnutt, Elisabeth G., Collins, Emma L., Millar, Justin, Mishra, Swapnil, Rozier, Jennifer, and Symons, Tasmin

Subjects
MALARIA prevention, MALARIA, TIME series analysis, INSECTICIDES
Abstract

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are one of the most widespread and impactful malaria interventions in Africa, yet a spatially-resolved time series of ITN coverage has never been published. Using data from multiple sources, we generate high-resolution maps of ITN access, use, and nets-per-capita annually from 2000 to 2020 across the 40 highest-burden African countries. Our findings support several existing hypotheses: that use is high among those with access, that nets are discarded more quickly than official policy presumes, and that effectively distributing nets grows more difficult as coverage increases. The primary driving factors behind these findings are most likely strong cultural and social messaging around the importance of net use, low physical net durability, and a mixture of inherent commodity distribution challenges and less-than-optimal net allocation policies, respectively. These results can inform both policy decisions and downstream malaria analyses. Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) are an important part of malaria control in Africa and WHO targets aim for 80% coverage. This study estimates the spatio-temporal access and use of ITNs in Africa from 2000-2020, and shows that both metrics have improved over time but access remains below WHO targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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40. Mapping malaria by sharing spatial information between incidence and prevalence data sets.

Author

Lucas, Tim C. D., Nandi, Anita K., Chestnutt, Elisabeth G., Twohig, Katherine A., Keddie, Suzanne H., Collins, Emma L., Howes, Rosalind E., Nguyen, Michele, Rumisha, Susan F., Python, Andre, Arambepola, Rohan, Bertozzi‐Villa, Amelia, Hancock, Penelope, Amratia, Punam, Battle, Katherine E., Cameron, Ewan, Gething, Peter W., and Weiss, Daniel J.

Subjects
INFORMATION sharing, RANDOM fields, REGRESSION analysis, MALARIA, POLYGONS, DISEASE mapping
Abstract

As malaria incidence decreases and more countries move towards elimination, maps of malaria risk in low‐prevalence areas are increasingly needed. For low‐burden areas, disaggregation regression models have been developed to estimate risk at high spatial resolution from routine surveillance reports aggregated by administrative unit polygons. However, in areas with both routine surveillance data and prevalence surveys, models that make use of the spatial information from prevalence point‐surveys might make more accurate predictions. Using case studies in Indonesia, Senegal and Madagascar, we compare the out‐of‐sample mean absolute error for two methods for incorporating point‐level, spatial information into disaggregation regression models. The first simply fits a binomial‐likelihood, logit‐link, Gaussian random field to prevalence point‐surveys to create a new covariate. The second is a multi‐likelihood model that is fitted jointly to prevalence point‐surveys and polygon incidence data. We find that in most cases there is no difference in mean absolute error between models. In only one case, did the new models perform the best. More generally, our results demonstrate that combining these types of data has the potential to reduce absolute error in estimates of malaria incidence but that simpler baseline models should always be fitted as a benchmark. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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41. Obstetric Inpatient and Ultrasound Clinical Personnel Absences during the COVID-19 Pandemic in New York City.

Author

Spiegelman, Jessica, Bertozzi-Villa, Clara, D'Alton, Mary E., Aubey, Janice J., Fuchs, Karin, Goffman, Dena, Gyamfi-Bannerman, Cynthia, Miller, Russell, Robinson, Kenya E., Sheen, Jean-Ju, Simpson, Lynn L., Valderrama, Natali E., Wen, Timothy, Zork, Noelia, and Friedman, Alexander M.

Subjects
*MATERNAL health services, *HEALTH facility employees, *VACATIONS, *SICK leave, *ULTRASONIC imaging, *COVID-19, *ACADEMIC medical centers, *NURSES' aides, *JOB absenteeism, *CHILDREN'S hospitals, *MATERNITY nursing, *RETROSPECTIVE studies, *HOSPITAL birthing centers, *SABBATICAL leave, *FISHER exact test, *OPERATING room technicians, *COMPARATIVE studies, *PSYCHOSOCIAL factors, *HOSPITAL nursing staff, *CHI-squared test, *DESCRIPTIVE statistics, *COVID-19 pandemic, *FETAL ultrasonic imaging, *ALLIED health personnel, *PSYCHOLOGY of physicians, *HOLIDAYS
Abstract

Objective  To review obstetric personnel absences at a hospital during the initial peak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection risk in New York City from March 25 to April 21, 2020. Study Design  This retrospective study evaluated absences at Morgan Stanley Children's Hospital. Clinical absences for (1) Columbia University ultrasonographers, (2) inpatient nurses, (3) labor and delivery operating room (OR) technicians, (4) inpatient obstetric nurse assistants, and (5) attending physicians providing inpatient obstetric services were analyzed. Causes of absences were analyzed and classified as illness, vacation and holidays, leave, and other causes. Categorical variables were compared with the chi-square test or Fisher's exact test. Results  For nurses, absences accounted for 1,052 nursing workdays in 2020 (17.2% of all workdays) compared with 670 (11.1%) workdays in 2019 (p  < 0.01). Significant differentials in days absent in 2020 compared with 2019 were present for (1) postpartum nurses (21.9% compared with 12.9%, p  < 0.01), (2) labor and delivery nurses (14.8% compared with 10.6%, p  < 0.01), and (3) antepartum nurses (10.2% compared with 7.4%, p  = 0.03). Evaluating nursing assistants, 24.3% of workdays were missed in 2020 compared with 17.4% in 2019 (p  < 0.01). For ultrasonographers, there were 146 absences (25.2% of workdays) in 2020 compared with 96 absences (16.0% of workdays) in 2019 (p  < 0.01). The proportion of workdays missed by OR technicians was 22.6% in 2020 and 18.3% in 2019 (p  = 0.25). Evaluating attending physician absences, a total of 78 workdays were missed due to documented COVID-19 infection. Evaluating the causes of absences, illness increased significantly between 2019 and 2020 for nursing assistants (42.6 vs. 57.4%, p  = 0.02), OR technicians (17.1 vs. 55.9%, p  < 0.01), and nurses (15.5 vs. 33.7%, p  < 0.01). Conclusion  COVID-19 outbreak surge planning represents a major operational issue for medical specialties such as critical care due to increased clinical volume. Findings from this analysis suggest it is prudent to devise backup staffing plans. Key Points 1) COVID-19 outbreak surge planning represents a major operational issue for obstetrics. 2) Inpatient obstetric volume cannot be reduced. 3) Staffing contingencies plans for nurses, sonographers, and physicians may be required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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42. Global estimation of anti-malarial drug effectiveness for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria 1991–2019.

Author

Rathmes, Giulia, Rumisha, Susan F., Lucas, Tim C. D., Twohig, Katherine A., Python, Andre, Nguyen, Michele, Nandi, Anita K., Keddie, Suzanne H., Collins, Emma L., Rozier, Jennifer A., Gibson, Harry S., Chestnutt, Elisabeth G., Battle, Katherine E., Humphreys, Georgina S., Amratia, Punam, Arambepola, Rohan, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Hancock, Penelope, Millar, Justin J., and Symons, Tasmin L.

Subjects
DRUG efficacy, MALARIA, PLASMODIUM falciparum, MEDICAL care, TREATMENT effectiveness
Abstract

Background: Anti-malarial drugs play a critical role in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality, but their role is mediated by their effectiveness. Effectiveness is defined as the probability that an anti-malarial drug will successfully treat an individual infected with malaria parasites under routine health care delivery system. Anti-malarial drug effectiveness (AmE) is influenced by drug resistance, drug quality, health system quality, and patient adherence to drug use; its influence on malaria burden varies through space and time. Methods: This study uses data from 232 efficacy trials comprised of 86,776 infected individuals to estimate the artemisinin-based and non-artemisinin-based AmE for treating falciparum malaria between 1991 and 2019. Bayesian spatiotemporal models were fitted and used to predict effectiveness at the pixel-level (5 km × 5 km). The median and interquartile ranges (IQR) of AmE are presented for all malaria-endemic countries. Results: The global effectiveness of artemisinin-based drugs was 67.4% (IQR: 33.3–75.8), 70.1% (43.6–76.0) and 71.8% (46.9–76.4) for the 1991–2000, 2006–2010, and 2016–2019 periods, respectively. Countries in central Africa, a few in South America, and in the Asian region faced the challenge of lower effectiveness of artemisinin-based anti-malarials. However, improvements were seen after 2016, leaving only a few hotspots in Southeast Asia where resistance to artemisinin and partner drugs is currently problematic and in the central Africa where socio-demographic challenges limit effectiveness. The use of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) with a competent partner drug and having multiple ACT as first-line treatment choice sustained high levels of effectiveness. High levels of access to healthcare, human resource capacity, education, and proximity to cities were associated with increased effectiveness. Effectiveness of non-artemisinin-based drugs was much lower than that of artemisinin-based with no improvement over time: 52.3% (17.9–74.9) for 1991–2000 and 55.5% (27.1–73.4) for 2011–2015. Overall, AmE for artemisinin-based and non-artemisinin-based drugs were, respectively, 29.6 and 36% below clinical efficacy as measured in anti-malarial drug trials. Conclusions: This study provides evidence that health system performance, drug quality and patient adherence influence the effectiveness of anti-malarials used in treating uncomplicated falciparum malaria. These results provide guidance to countries' treatment practises and are critical inputs for malaria prevalence and incidence models used to estimate national level malaria burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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43. Travel time to health facilities in areas of outbreak potential: maps for guiding local preparedness and response.

Author

Hulland, E. N., Wiens, K. E., Shirude, S., Morgan, J. D., Bertozzi-Villa, A., Farag, T. H., Fullman, N., Kraemer, M. U. G., Miller-Petrie, M. K., Gupta, V., Reiner, R. C., Rabinowitz, P., Wasserheit, J. N., Bell, B. P., Hay, S. I., Weiss, D. J., Pigott, D. M., and Reiner, R C Jr

Subjects
HEALTH facilities, TRAVEL hygiene, HEMORRHAGIC fever, PREPAREDNESS, REGIONAL disparities
Abstract

Background: Repeated outbreaks of emerging pathogens underscore the need for preparedness plans to prevent, detect, and respond. As countries develop and improve National Action Plans for Health Security, addressing subnational variation in preparedness is increasingly important. One facet of preparedness and mitigating disease transmission is health facility accessibility, linking infected persons with health systems and vice versa. Where potential patients can access care, local facilities must ensure they can appropriately diagnose, treat, and contain disease spread to prevent secondary transmission; where patients cannot readily access facilities, alternate plans must be developed. Here, we use travel time to link facilities and populations at risk of viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) and identify spatial variation in these respective preparedness demands.Methods and Findings: We used geospatial resources of travel friction, pathogen environmental suitability, and health facilities to determine facility accessibility of any at-risk location within a country. We considered in-country and cross-border movements of exposed populations and highlighted vulnerable populations where current facilities are inaccessible and new infrastructure would reduce travel times. We developed profiles for 43 African countries. Resulting maps demonstrate gaps in health facility accessibility and highlight facilities closest to areas at risk for VHF spillover. For instance, in the Central African Republic, we identified travel times of over 24 h to access a health facility. Some countries had more uniformly short travel times, such as Nigeria, although regional disparities exist. For some populations, including many in Botswana, access to areas at risk for VHF nationally was low but proximity to suitable spillover areas in bordering countries was high. Additional analyses provide insights for considering future resource allocation. We provide a contemporary use case for these analyses for the ongoing Ebola outbreak.Conclusions: These maps demonstrate the use of geospatial analytics for subnational preparedness, identifying facilities close to at-risk populations for prioritizing readiness to detect, treat, and respond to cases and highlighting where gaps in health facility accessibility exist. We identified cross-border threats for VHF exposure and demonstrate an opportunity to improve preparedness activities through the use of precision public health methods and data-driven insights for resource allocation as part of a country's preparedness plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
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45. Impact of mass drug administration campaigns depends on interaction with seasonal human movement.

Author

Gerardin, Jaline, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Eckhoff, Philip A., and Wenger, Edward A.

Subjects
*PREVENTION of communicable diseases, *DRUG administration, *DISEASE prevalence, *SEASONAL residents, *MATHEMATICAL models
Abstract

Background: Mass drug administration (MDA) is a control and elimination tool for treating infectious diseases. For malaria, it is widely accepted that conducting MDA during the dry season results in the best outcomes. However, seasonal movement of populations into and out of MDA target areas is common in many places and could potentially fundamentally limit the ability of MDA campaigns to achieve elimination. Methods: A mathematical model was used to simulate malaria transmission in two villages connected to a high-risk area into and out of which 10% of villagers traveled seasonally. MDA was given only in the villages. Prevalence reduction under various possible timings of MDA and seasonal travel was predicted. Results: MDA is most successful when distributed outside the traveling season and during the village lowtransmission season. MDA is least successful when distributed during the traveling season and when traveling overlapswith the peak transmission season in the high-risk area. Mistiming MDA relative to seasonal travel resulted in much poorer outcomes than mistiming MDA relative to the peak transmission season within the villages. Conclusions: Seasonal movement patterns of high-risk groups should be taken into consideration when selecting the optimum timing of MDA campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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46. Trends and Patterns of Differences in Infectious Disease Mortality Among US Counties, 1980-2014.

Author

el Bcheraoui, Charbel, Mokdad, Ali H., Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Stubbs, Rebecca W, Morozoff, Chloe, Shirude, Shreya, Naghavi, Mohsen, and Murray, Christopher J. L.

Abstract

Importance: Infectious diseases are mostly preventable but still pose a public health threat in the United States, where estimates of infectious diseases mortality are not available at the county level.Objective: To estimate age-standardized mortality rates and trends by county from 1980 to 2014 from lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, HIV/AIDS, meningitis, hepatitis, and tuberculosis.Design and Setting: This study used deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the US Census Bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database. Validated small-area estimation models were applied to these data to estimate county-level infectious disease mortality rates.Exposures: County of residence.Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized mortality rates of lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, HIV/AIDS, meningitis, hepatitis, and tuberculosis by county, year, and sex.Results: Between 1980 and 2014, there were 4 081 546 deaths due to infectious diseases recorded in the United States. In 2014, a total of 113 650 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 108 764-117 942) deaths or a rate of 34.10 (95% UI, 32.63-35.38) deaths per 100 000 persons were due to infectious diseases in the United States compared to a total of 72 220 (95% UI, 69 887-74 712) deaths or a rate of 41.95 (95% UI, 40.52-43.42) deaths per 100 000 persons in 1980, an overall decrease of 18.73% (95% UI, 14.95%-23.33%). Lower respiratory infections were the leading cause of infectious diseases mortality in 2014 accounting for 26.87 (95% UI, 25.79-28.05) deaths per 100 000 persons (78.80% of total infectious diseases deaths). There were substantial differences among counties in death rates from all infectious diseases. Lower respiratory infection had the largest absolute mortality inequality among counties (difference between the 10th and 90th percentile of the distribution, 24.5 deaths per 100 000 persons). However, HIV/AIDS had the highest relative mortality inequality between counties (10.0 as the ratio of mortality rate in the 90th and 10th percentile of the distribution). Mortality from meningitis and tuberculosis decreased over the study period in all US counties. However, diarrheal diseases were the only cause of infectious diseases mortality to increase from 2000 to 2014, reaching a rate of 2.41 (95% UI, 0.86-2.67) deaths per 100 000 persons, with many counties of high mortality extending from Missouri to the northeastern region of the United States.Conclusions and Relevance: Between 1980 and 2014, there were declines in mortality from most categories of infectious diseases, with large differences among US counties. However, over this time there was an increase in mortality for diarrheal diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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47. Trends and Patterns of Geographic Variation in Mortality From Substance Use Disorders and Intentional Injuries Among US Counties, 1980-2014.

Author

Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Stubbs, Rebecca W., Morozoff, Chloe, Shirude, Shreya, Unützer, Jürgen, Naghavi, Mohsen, Mokdad, Ali H., and Murray, Christopher J. L.

Abstract

Importance: Substance use disorders, including alcohol use disorders and drug use disorders, and intentional injuries, including self-harm and interpersonal violence, are important causes of early death and disability in the United States.Objective: To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence in the United States.Design and Setting: Validated small-area estimation models were applied to deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the US Census Bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 for alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence.Exposures: County of residence.Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized mortality rates by US county (N = 3110), year, sex, and cause.Results: Between 1980 and 2014, there were 2 848 768 deaths due to substance use disorders and intentional injuries recorded in the United States. Mortality rates from alcohol use disorders (n = 256 432), drug use disorders (n = 542 501), self-harm (n = 1 289 086), and interpersonal violence (n = 760 749) varied widely among counties. Mortality rates decreased for alcohol use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence at the national level between 1980 and 2014; however, over the same period, the percentage of counties in which mortality rates increased for these causes was 65.4% for alcohol use disorders, 74.6% for self-harm, and 6.6% for interpersonal violence. Mortality rates from drug use disorders increased nationally and in every county between 1980 and 2014, but the relative increase varied from 8.2% to 8369.7%. Relative and absolute geographic inequalities in mortality, as measured by comparing the 90th and 10th percentile among counties, decreased for alcohol use disorders and interpersonal violence but increased substantially for drug use disorders and self-harm between 1980 and 2014.Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality due to alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence varied widely among US counties, both in terms of levels of mortality and trends. These estimates may be useful to inform efforts to target prevention, diagnosis, and treatment to improve health and reduce inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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48. Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013

Author

Hmwe H, Kyu, Christine, Pinho, Joseph A, Wagner, Jonathan C, Brown, Amelia, Bertozzi-Villa, Fiona J, Charlson, Luc Edgar, Coffeng, Lalit, Dandona, Holly E, Erskine, Alize J, Ferrari, Christina, Fitzmaurice, Thomas D, Fleming, Mohammad H, Forouzanfar, Nicholas, Graetz, Caterina, Guinovart, Juanita, Haagsma, Hideki, Higashi, Nicholas J, Kassebaum, Heidi J, Larson, Stephen S, Lim, Ali H, Mokdad, Maziar, Moradi-Lakeh, Shaun V, Odell, Gregory A, Roth, Peter T, Serina, Jeffrey D, Stanaway, Awoke, Misganaw, Harvey A, Whiteford, Timothy M, Wolock, Sarah, Wulf Hanson, Foad, Abd-Allah, Semaw Ferede, Abera, Laith J, Abu-Raddad, Fadia S, AlBuhairan, Azmeraw T, Amare, Carl Abelardo T, Antonio, Al, Artaman, Suzanne L, Barker-Collo, Lope H, Barrero, Corina, Benjet, Isabela M, Bensenor, Zulfiqar A, Bhutta, Boris, Bikbov, Alexandra, Brazinova, Ismael, Campos-Nonato, Carlos A, Castañeda-Orjuela, Ferrán, Catalá-López, Rajiv, Chowdhury, Cyrus, Cooper, John A, Crump, Rakhi, Dandona, Louisa, Degenhardt, Robert P, Dellavalle, Samath D, Dharmaratne, Emerito Jose A, Faraon, Valery L, Feigin, Thomas, Fürst, Johanna M, Geleijnse, Bradford D, Gessner, Katherine B, Gibney, Atsushi, Goto, David, Gunnell, Graeme J, Hankey, Roderick J, Hay, John C, Hornberger, H Dean, Hosgood, Guoqing, Hu, Kathryn H, Jacobsen, Sudha P, Jayaraman, Panniyammakal, Jeemon, Jost B, Jonas, André, Karch, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kim, Yoshihiro, Kokubo, Barthelemy, Kuate Defo, Burcu, Kucuk Bicer, G Anil, Kumar, Anders, Larsson, Janet L, Leasher, Ricky, Leung, Yongmei, Li, Steven E, Lipshultz, Alan D, Lopez, Paulo A, Lotufo, Raimundas, Lunevicius, Ronan A, Lyons, Marek, Majdan, Reza, Malekzadeh, Taufiq, Mashal, Amanda J, Mason-Jones, Yohannes Adama, Melaku, Ziad A, Memish, Walter, Mendoza, Ted R, Miller, Charles N, Mock, Joseph, Murray, Sandra, Nolte, In-Hwan, Oh, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Katrina F, Ortblad, Eun-Kee, Park, Angel J, Paternina Caicedo, Scott B, Patten, George C, Patton, David M, Pereira, Norberto, Perico, Frédéric B, Piel, Suzanne, Polinder, Svetlana, Popova, Farshad, Pourmalek, D Alex, Quistberg, Giuseppe, Remuzzi, Alina, Rodriguez, David, Rojas-Rueda, Dietrich, Rothenbacher, David H, Rothstein, Juan, Sanabria, Itamar S, Santos, David C, Schwebel, Sadaf G, Sepanlou, Amira, Shaheen, Rahman, Shiri, Ivy, Shiue, Vegard, Skirbekk, Karen, Sliwa, Chandrashekhar T, Sreeramareddy, Dan J, Stein, Timothy J, Steiner, Lars Jacob, Stovner, Bryan L, Sykes, Karen M, Tabb, Abdullah Sulieman, Terkawi, Alan J, Thomson, Andrew L, Thorne-Lyman, Jeffrey Allen, Towbin, Kingsley Nnanna, Ukwaja, Tommi, Vasankari, Narayanaswamy, Venketasubramanian, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vlassov, Stein Emil, Vollset, Elisabete, Weiderpass, Robert G, Weintraub, Andrea, Werdecker, James D, Wilkinson, Solomon Meseret, Woldeyohannes, Charles D A, Wolfe, Yuichiro, Yano, Paul, Yip, Naohiro, Yonemoto, Seok-Jun, Yoon, Mustafa Z, Younis, Chuanhua, Yu, Maysaa, El Sayed Zaki, Mohsen, Naghavi, Christopher J L, Murray, Theo, Vos, and Public Health

Subjects
Male, COUNTRIES, SUICIDE, Adolescent, Nutrition and Disease, Adolescent Health, Global Health, Article, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Cost of Illness, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Voeding en Ziekte, 030225 pediatrics, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS, Life Science, Humans, Medicine, Public Health Surveillance, 030212 general & internal medicine, Child, Developing Countries, VLAG, business.industry, Developed Countries, DISABILITY, MORTALITY, Child Health, DEATH, 1. No poverty, HIV, Bayes Theorem, PREVALENCE, TIME, 3. Good health, Child, Preschool, Child Mortality, Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health, Wounds and Injuries, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, business, Demography
Abstract

Importance The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.Objective To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged Evidence Review Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.Findings Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world’s deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world’s diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.Conclusions and Relevance Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.

Published
2016
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49. Trends and Patterns of Differences in Chronic Respiratory Disease Mortality Among US Counties, 1980-2014.

Author

Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Stubbs, Rebecca W., Morozoff, Chloe, Shirude, Shreya, Naghavi, Mohsen, Mokdad, Ali H., and Murray, Christopher J. L.

Subjects
*RESPIRATORY diseases, *MORTALITY, *CHRONIC diseases, *COUNTIES, *TRENDS, *DISABILITIES, *DEATH certificates, *HISTORY, *PATIENTS, *STATISTICS
Abstract

Importance: Chronic respiratory diseases are an important cause of death and disability in the United States.Objective: To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from chronic respiratory diseases.Design, Setting, and Participants: Validated small area estimation models were applied to deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population counts from the US Census Bureau, National Center for Health Statistics, and Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 for chronic respiratory diseases.Exposure: County of residence.Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cause.Results: A total of 4 616 711 deaths due to chronic respiratory diseases were recorded in the United States from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2014. Nationally, the mortality rate from chronic respiratory diseases increased from 40.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 39.8-41.8) deaths per 100 000 population in 1980 to a peak of 55.4 (95% UI, 54.1-56.5) deaths per 100 000 population in 2002 and then declined to 52.9 (95% UI, 51.6-54.4) deaths per 100 000 population in 2014. This overall 29.7% (95% UI, 25.5%-33.8%) increase in chronic respiratory disease mortality from 1980 to 2014 reflected increases in the mortality rate from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (by 30.8% [95% UI, 25.2%-39.0%], from 34.5 [95% UI, 33.0-35.5] to 45.1 [95% UI, 43.7-46.9] deaths per 100 000 population), interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis (by 100.5% [95% UI, 5.8%-155.2%], from 2.7 [95% UI, 2.3-4.2] to 5.5 [95% UI, 3.5-6.1] deaths per 100 000 population), and all other chronic respiratory diseases (by 42.3% [95% UI, 32.4%-63.8%], from 0.51 [95% UI, 0.48-0.54] to 0.73 [95% UI, 0.69-0.78] deaths per 100 000 population). There were substantial differences in mortality rates and changes in mortality rates over time among counties, and geographic patterns differed by cause. Counties with the highest mortality rates were found primarily in central Appalachia for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumoconiosis; widely dispersed throughout the Southwest, northern Great Plains, New England, and South Atlantic for interstitial lung disease; along the southern half of the Mississippi River and in Georgia and South Carolina for asthma; and in southern states from Mississippi to South Carolina for other chronic respiratory diseases.Conclusions and Relevance: Despite recent declines in mortality from chronic respiratory diseases, mortality rates in 2014 remained significantly higher than in 1980. Between 1980 and 2014, there were important differences in mortality rates and changes in mortality by county, sex, and particular chronic respiratory disease type. These estimates may be helpful for informing efforts to improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2017
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