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Early observations from countries that have introduced rotavirus vaccination suggest that there may be indirect protection for unvaccinated individuals, but it is unclear whether these benefits will extend to the long term. Transmission dynamic models have attempted to quantify the indirect protection that might be expected from rotavirus vaccination in developed countries, but results have varied. To better understand the magnitude and sources of variability in model projections, we undertook a comparative analysis of transmission dynamic models for rotavirus. We fit five models to reported rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) data from England and Wales, and evaluated outcomes for short- and long-term vaccination effects. All of our models reproduced the important features of rotavirus epidemics in England and Wales. Models predicted that during the initial year after vaccine introduction, incidence of severe RVGE would be reduced 1.8-2.9 times more than expected from the direct effects of the vaccine alone (28-50% at 90% coverage), but over a 5-year period following vaccine introduction severe RVGE would be reduced only by 1.1-1.7 times more than expected from the direct effects (54-90% at 90% coverage). Projections for the long-term reduction of severe RVGE ranged from a 55% reduction at full coverage to elimination with at least 80% coverage. Our models predicted short-term reductions in the incidence of RVGE that exceeded estimates of the direct effects, consistent with observations from the United States and other countries. Some of the models predicted that the short-term indirect benefits may be offset by a partial shifting of the burden of RVGE to older unvaccinated individuals. Nonetheless, even when such a shift occurs, the overall reduction in severe RVGE is considerable. Discrepancies among model predictions reflect uncertainties about age variation in the risk and reporting of RVGE, and the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity, highlighting important questions for future research.

Vital registration and cause of death reporting is incomplete in the countries in which the HIV epidemic is most severe. A reliable tool that is independent of HIV status is needed for measuring the frequency of AIDS deaths and ultimately the impact of antiretroviral therapy on mortality.A verbal autopsy questionnaire was administered to caregivers of 381 adults of known HIV status who died between 1998 and 2003 in Manicaland, eastern Zimbabwe. Individuals who were HIV positive and did not die in an accident or during childbirth (74%; n = 282) were considered to have died of AIDS in the gold standard. Verbal autopsies were randomly allocated to a training dataset (n = 279) to generate classification criteria or a test dataset (n = 102) to verify criteria. A rule-based algorithm created to minimise false positives had a specificity of 66% and a sensitivity of 76%. Eight predictors (weight loss, wasting, jaundice, herpes zoster, presence of abscesses or sores, oral candidiasis, acute respiratory tract infections, and vaginal tumours) were included in the algorithm. In the test dataset of verbal autopsies, 69% of deaths were correctly classified as AIDS/non-AIDS, and it was not necessary to invoke a differential diagnosis of tuberculosis. Presence of any one of these criteria gave a post-test probability of AIDS death of 0.84.Analysis of verbal autopsy data in this rural Zimbabwean population revealed a distinct pattern of signs and symptoms associated with AIDS mortality. Using these signs and symptoms, demographic surveillance data on AIDS deaths may allow for the estimation of AIDS mortality and even HIV prevalence.

It has recently been argued that unsafe medical injections are a major transmission route of HIV infection in the generalised epidemics of sub-Saharan Africa.We have analysed the pattern of injections in relation to HIV incidence in a population cohort in Manicaland in a rural area of Zimbabwe. In Poisson regression models, injections were not found to be associated with HIV in males (rate ratio = 0.33; 95% confidence interval: 0.07 to 1.46) or females (rate ratio = 1.04; 95% confidence interval: 0.59 to 1.85).It is important that unsafe medical injections can be confidently excluded as a major source of HIV infection. In rural Zimbabwe the evidence is that they can.

It is important to understand real-world BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE), especially among racial and ethnic minority groups. We performed a test-negative case-control study to measure BNT162b2 COVID-19 VE in the prevention of COVID-19-associated acute respiratory illness (ARI) hospitalizations at two Atlanta hospitals from May 2021–January 2023 and adjusted for potential confounders by multivariate analysis. Among 5139 eligible adults with ARI, 2763 (53.8%) were enrolled, and 1571 (64.5%) were included in the BNT162b2 analysis. The median age was 58 years (IQR, 44–68), 889 (56.6%) were female, 1034 (65.8%) were African American, 359 (22.9%) were White, 56 (3.6%) were Hispanic ethnicity, 645 (41.1%) were SARS-CoV-2-positive, 412 (26.2%) were vaccinated with a primary series, and 273 (17.4%) had received ≥1 booster of BNT162b2. The overall adjusted VE of the BNT162b2 primary series was 58.5% (95% CI 46.0, 68.1), while the adjusted VE of ≥1 booster was 78.9% (95% CI 70.0, 85.1). The adjusted overall VE of primary series for African American/Black individuals was 64.0% (95% CI 49.9, 74.1) and 82.7% (95% CI 71.9, 89.4) in those who received ≥1 booster. When analysis was limited to the period of Omicron predominance, overall VE of the primary series decreased with widened confidence intervals (24.5%, 95% CI −4.5, 45.4%), while VE of ≥1 booster was maintained at 60.9% (95% CI 42.0, 73.6). BNT162b2 primary series and booster vaccination provided protection against COVID-19-associated ARI hospitalization among a predominantly African American population.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions minimize social contacts, hence the spread of respiratory pathogens such as influenza and SARS-CoV-2. Globally, there is a paucity of social contact data from the workforce. In this study, we quantified two-day contact patterns among USA employees. Contacts were defined as face-to-face conversations, involving physical touch or proximity to another individual and were collected using electronic self-kept diaries. Data were collected over 4 rounds from 2020 to 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mean (standard deviation) contacts reported by 1456 participants were 2.5 (2.5), 8.2 (7.1), 9.2 (7.1) and 10.1 (9.5) across round 1 (April–June 2020), 2 (November 2020–January 2021), 3 (June–August 2021), and 4 (November–December 2021), respectively. Between round 1 and 2, we report a 3-fold increase in the mean number of contacts reported per participant with no major increases from round 2–4. We then modeled SARS-CoV-2 transmission at home, work, and community settings. The model revealed reduced relative transmission in all settings in round 1. Subsequently, transmission increased at home and in the community but remained exceptionally low in work settings. To accurately parameterize models of infection transmission and control, we need empirical social contact data that capture human mixing behavior across time.

Abstract Background To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed. Methods We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012–2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022–2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels. Results We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70–90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70–90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection. Conclusions These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses.

Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis outbreaks in the United States. We estimated the basic (R0) and effective (Re) reproduction numbers for 7,094 norovirus outbreaks reported to the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) during 2009–2017 and used regression models to assess whether transmission varied by outbreak setting. The median R0 was 2.75 (interquartile range [IQR] 2.38–3.65), and median Re was 1.29 (IQR 1.12–1.74). Long-term care and assisted living facilities had an R0 of 3.35 (95% CI 3.26–3.45), but R0 did not differ substantially for outbreaks in other settings, except for outbreaks in schools, colleges, and universities, which had an R0 of 2.92 (95% CI 2.82–3.03). Seasonally, R0 was lowest (3.11 [95% CI 2.97–3.25]) in summer and peaked in fall and winter. Overall, we saw little variability in transmission across different outbreaks settings in the United States.

We measured contact patterns using online diaries for 304 employees of 3 U.S. companies working remotely. The median number of daily contacts was 2 (IQR 1-4); majority were conversation (55 %), occurred at home (64 %) and lasted >4 h (38 %). These data are crucial for modeling outbreak control among the workforces.

Infectious disease often occurs in small, independent outbreaks in populations with varying characteristics. Each outbreak by itself may provide too little information for accurate estimation of epidemic model parameters. Here we show that using standard stochastic epidemic models for each outbreak and allowing parameters to vary between outbreaks according to a linear predictor leads to a generalized linear model that accurately estimates parameters from many small and diverse outbreaks. By estimating initial growth rates in addition to transmission rates, we are able to characterize variation in numbers of initially susceptible individuals or contact patterns between outbreaks. With simulation, we find that the estimates are fairly robust to the data being collected at discrete intervals and imputation of about half of all infectious periods. We apply the method by fitting data from 75 norovirus outbreaks in health-care settings. Our baseline regression estimates are 0.0037 transmissions per infective-susceptible day, an initial growth rate of 0.27 transmissions per infective day, and a symptomatic period of 3.35 days. Outbreaks in long-term-care facilities had significantly higher transmission and initial growth rates than outbreaks in hospitals.

Although recognized as the leading cause of epidemic acute gastroenteritis across all age groups, norovirus has remained poorly characterized with respect to its endemic disease incidence. Use of different methods, including attributable proportion extrapolation, population-based surveillance, and indirect modeling, in several recent studies has considerably improved norovirus disease incidence estimates for the United States. Norovirus causes an average of 570–800 deaths, 56,000–71,000 hospitalizations, 400,000 emergency department visits, 1.7–1.9 million outpatient visits, and 19–21 million total illnesses per year. Persons >65 years of age are at greatest risk for norovirus-associated death, and children

Noroviruses are the leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States. To better guide interventions, we analyzed 2,922 foodborne disease outbreaks for which norovirus was the suspected or confirmed cause, which had been reported to the Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 2001–2008. On average, 365 foodborne norovirus outbreaks were reported annually, resulting in an estimated 10,324 illnesses, 1,247 health care provider visits, 156 hospitalizations, and 1 death. In 364 outbreaks attributed to a single commodity, leafy vegetables (33%), fruits/nuts (16%), and mollusks (13%) were implicated most commonly. Infected food handlers were the source of 53% of outbreaks and may have contributed to 82% of outbreaks. Most foods were likely contaminated during preparation and service, except for mollusks, and occasionally, produce was contaminated during production and processing. Interventions to reduce the frequency of foodborne norovirus outbreaks should focus on food workers and production of produce and shellfish.

Approximately 179 million cases of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) occur annually in the United States. However, lack of routine clinical testing for viruses limits understanding of their role among persons seeking medical care. Fecal specimens submitted for routine bacterial culture through a health maintenance organization in Georgia, USA, were tested with molecular diagnostic assays for norovirus, rotavirus, astrovirus, sapovirus, and adenovirus. Incidence was estimated by using national health care utilization rates. Routine clinical diagnostics identified a pathogen in 42 (7.3%) of 572 specimens; inclusion of molecular viral testing increased pathogen detection to 15.7%. Community AGE incidence was 41,000 cases/100,000 person-years and outpatient incidence was 5,400/100,000 person-years. Norovirus was the most common pathogen, accounting for 6,500 (16%) and 640 (12%) per 100,000 person-years of community and outpatient AGE episodes, respectively. This study demonstrates that noroviruses are leading causes of AGE among persons seeking medical care.

The number of deaths in England and Wales associated with gastrointestinal pathogens, norovirus in particular, in persons >65 years was estimated for 2001–2006. Regression analysis was used to model monthly counts of gastrointestinal pathogens in fecal samples from infected patients against monthly counts of deaths from infectious and noninfectious intestinal diseases. Data came from the Office of National Statistics (death registrations from local registrars) and from the Health Protection Agency (laboratory results). Model results suggest that 20% (13.3%–26.8%) of deaths in persons >65 years of age caused by infectious intestinal disease other than Clostridium difficile were associated with norovirus infection in this period and that 13% (7.5%–18.5%) of deaths caused by noninfectious intestinal disease were associated with norovirus. An estimated 80 deaths each year in this age group may be associated with norovirus infection.

Healthcare-associated outbreaks of gastroenteritis are an increasingly recognized problem, but detailed knowledge of the epidemiology of these events is lacking. We actively monitored three hospital systems in England for outbreaks of gastroenteritis in 2002 to 2003. A total of 2,154 patients (2.21 cases/1,000-hospital-days) and 1,360 healthcare staff (0.47 cases/1,000-hospital-days) were affected in 227 unit outbreaks (1.33 outbreaks/unit-year). Norovirus, detected in 63% of outbreaks, was the predominant etiologic agent. Restricting new admissions to affected units resulted in 5,443 lost bed-days. The cost of bed-days lost plus staff absence was calculated to be £635,000 (U.S.$ 1.01 million) per 1,000 beds. By our extrapolation, gastroenteritis outbreaks likely cost the English National Health Service £115 (U.S.$ 184) million in 2002 to 2003. Outbreaks were contained faster (7.9 vs. 15.4 days, p = 0.0023) when units were rapidly closed to new admissions (