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The population decline and lack of natural recovery of multiple coral species along the Florida reef tract have instigated the expanding application of coral restoration and conservation efforts. Few studies, however, have determined the optimal locations for the survival of outplanted coral colonies from restoration nurseries. This study predicts the optimal locations for Acropora palmata colonies along the Florida reef tract using a boosted-regression-tree model to examine the relationships between the occurrence of wild A. palmata and ten environmental variables. Our model results predicted A. palmata was most likely to occur in shallow reef habitats with (i) generally low mean chlorophyll-a concentrations (< 1 mg m-3), (ii) moderate fetch (3 kJ m-2), (iii) salinities between 20 and 37.5 ppt, (iv) temperatures between 20 and 32°C, (vi) low mean concentrations of total nitrogen (0.16 ppm), and (iv) irradiance between 26.5 and 53.5 mol m−2 s−1. The most suitable habitats for A. palmata were disproportionately allocated to reefs in Biscayne Bay, the Upper Keys, the western-lower Florida Keys, the Marquesas, and the Dry Tortugas. The middle Florida Keys had unfavorable environmental conditions for A. palmata habitat. Results from this study inform where A. palmata, outplanted as part of restoration and conservation efforts, would have suitable environmental conditions to persist over time. This study also provides decision-making support for management focused on the conservation and restoration of the endangered species A. palmata along the Florida reef tract. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, the Florida reef tract has lost over 95% of its coral cover. Although isolated coral assemblages persist, coral restoration programs are attempting to recover local coral populations. Listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, Acropora cervicornis is the most widely targeted coral species for restoration in Florida. Yet strategies are still maturing to enhance the survival of nursery‐reared outplants of A. cervicornis colonies on natural reefs. This study examined the survival of 22,634 A. cervicornis colonies raised in nurseries along the Florida reef tract and outplanted to six reef habitats in seven geographical subregions between 2012 and 2018. A Cox proportional hazards regression was used within a Bayesian framework to examine the effects of seven variables: (1) coral‐colony size at outplanting, (2) coral‐colony attachment method, (3) genotypic diversity of outplanted A. cervicornis clusters, (4) reef habitat, (5) geographical subregion, (6) latitude, and (7) the year of monitoring. The best models included coral‐colony size at outplanting, reef habitat, geographical subregion, and the year of monitoring. Survival was highest when colonies were larger than 15 cm (total linear extension), when outplanted to back‐reef and fore‐reef habitats, and when outplanted in Biscayne Bay and Broward–Miami subregions, in the higher latitudes of the Florida reef tract. This study points to several variables that influence the survival of outplanted A. cervicornis colonies and highlights a need to refine restoration strategies to help restore their population along the Florida reef tract. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]