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Low carbon transition pathways entail diverse uncertainties and risks in the underlying environmental, social, political, economic and technological factors. Inadequate information about such risks could affect the achievement of climate change mitigation targets negatively. This paper provides a novel experiment in which quantitative tools and stakeholder engagement are combined in order to identify the barriers between stakeholders and scientists concerning climate change mitigation aspects. Technological risks are captured by simulating different low carbon scenarios with limited technology options. Stakeholders are asked about their preferences on technology options regarding a low carbon future. After providing them with the simulation results, they are asked again in order to see whether those initial preferences had changed. Results prove the necessity for better communication between modelers and stakeholders. Closing the gaps between both communities is essential to remove barriers for more ambitious action against climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the framework of recent international climate negotiations, industrialized countries have committed to transfer at least USD 100 billion per year to developing countries from 2020. Climate finance has become the subject of an already extensive literature. However, the economic impact of the disbursement of climate finance and the role of international trade in its distribution globally have not been studied yet. This paper specifically estimates the geographical distribution of economic benefits for 17 mitigation and 9 adaptation options. We use a Global Multi-Regional Input-Output framework to track both domestic as well as spill-over effects of climate finance disbursements. The relevance of spill-overs is confirmed: on average, 29% of the economic benefits of climate actions flow to countries different from the recipient country (i.e. to the donors and third countries). But this percentage varies widely, between 11 and 61% depending on the type of climate action implemented as well as the recipient country. The findings are expected to be of interest for both recipient and donor countries as they provide guidance on how to maximize the economic co-benefits of climate finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Copenhagen and Paris Agreements, in which developed countries committed to mobilise USD 100 billion a year by 2020, indicate that climate finance will continue to grow. Even though economic development is not the aim of climate finance, climate-related disbursements will generate an economic impact on recipient countries’ economies. This impact will also reach other countries (including climate finance donors) through induced international trade. In this paper, we apply a structural decomposition analysis to study why the economic impact of climate finance varies between countries. We focus on specific climate actions and quantify the contribution of four drivers: value-added intensity, domestic multiplier, foreign multiplier and trade structure. The paper helps identifying the factors with the greatest potential to enhance the economic gains of climate finance in each country. This information can be useful for policy-makers trying to design national strategies that exploit the synergies between climate action and economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We examine the similarities and differences of specific deltaic areas in parallel, under the project DEltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation (DECCMA). The main reason for studying Deltas is their potential vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise, which generates important challenges for livelihoods. We provide insights into the current socioeconomic and biophysical states of the Volta Delta (Ghana), Mahanadi Delta (India) and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (India and Bangladesh). Hybrid methods of input-output (IO) construction are used to develop environmentally extended IO models for comparing the economic characteristics of these delta regions with the rest of the country. The main sources of data for regionalization were country level census data, statistics and economic surveys and data on consumption, trade, agricultural production and fishing harvests. The Leontief demand-driven model is used to analyze land use in the agricultural sector of the Delta and to track the links with final demand. In addition, the Hypothetical Extraction Method is used to evaluate the importance of the hypothetical disappearance of a sector (e.g., agriculture). The results show that, in the case of the Indian deltas, more than 60% of the cropland and pasture land is devoted to satisfying demands from regions outside the delta. While in the case of the Bangladeshi and Ghanaian deltas, close to 70% of the area harvested is linked to internal demand. The results also indicate that the services, trade and transportation sectors represent 50% of the GDP in the deltas. Still, agriculture, an activity directly exposed to climate change, plays a relevant role in the deltas' economies--we have estimated that the complete disappearance of this activity would entail GDP losses ranging from 18 to 32%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fossil fuel subsidies (FFS) constitute one of the most obvious barriers to tackling climate change, as they encourage inefficient energy consumption and divert investment away from clean energy sources. According to the International Monetary Fund, FFS amounted globally to $233 billion in 2014, over four times the value of subsidies awarded to promote renewable energy. In this study an integrated assessment model is used to analyse the CO2 implications in the European Union of eliminating FFS and recycling the revenues to promote rooftop PV. It is found that eliminating FFS would give rise to a small reduction in CO2 due to fuel-switching from coal to gas. If the revenues were recycled to promote solar, then the CO2 reduction would increase from 1.8% to 2.2% by 2030. Eliminating FFS is not a panacea from the mitigation point of view, even if the revenues are recycled, but other important objectives, such as those related to renewable energy promotion and the reduction of air pollution, are advanced at zero cost for the government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. As sea ice melts, more open water is exposed to solar radiation, absorbing heat and generating a sea-ice-albedo feedback that reinforces Arctic warming. Recent studies stress the significance of this feedback mechanism and suggest that ice-free summer conditions in the Arctic Ocean may occur faster than previously expected, even under low-emissions pathways. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore the implications of a potentially rapid sea-ice-loss process. We consider a scenario leading to a full month free of sea ice in September 2050, followed by three potential trajectories afterward: partial recovery, stabilization, and continued loss of sea ice. We analyze how these scenarios affect the efforts to keep global temperature increase below 2°C. Our results show that sea-ice melting in the Arctic requires more stringent mitigation efforts globally. We find that global CO2 emissions would need to reach zero levels 5-15 years earlier and that the carbon budget would need to be reduced by 20%-51% to offset this additional source of warming. The extra mitigation effort would imply an 18%-59% higher mitigation cost to society. Our results also show that to achieve the 1.5°C target in the presence of ice-free summers negative emissions would be needed. This study highlights the need for a better understanding of how the rapid changes observed in the Arctic may impact our society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an input–output method to estimate worldwide economic impacts generated by supply chain disruptions. The method is used to analyse global economic effects due to the disruptions in the automotive industry that followed the Japanese earthquake and the consequent tsunami and nuclear crisis of March 2011. By combining a mixed multi-regional input–output model, the World Input–Output Database and data at the factory level, the study quantifies the economic impacts of the disruptions broken down by country and industry. The results show that the global economic effect (in terms of value added) of this disruption amounted to US$139 billion. The most affected (groups of) countries were Japan (39%), the USA (25%), China (8%) and the European Union (7%). The most strongly affected industries were transport equipment (37%), other business activities (10%), basic and fabricated metals (8%), wholesale trade (7%) and financial intermediation (4%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore two different worldwide multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases (Global Trade Analysis Project-MRIO and World Input–Output Database) for the calculation of the global carbon footprint (CF) of nations. We start our analysis with a description of the main characteristics of the databases and then make a comparison between their main components. Then, we calculate the CF with both databases and identify (from a global perspective) the most relevant factors underlying their differences using structural decomposition analysis. On average, certain parts of both databases (e.g. intermediate uses and final demand) can be said to be similar for around 75% to 80%, with only a few elements in each part mainly driving the major differences. The divergences in the datasets of four countries explain almost 50% of the differences in the CF (the USA, China, Russia and India). Industry-wise, 50% of the differences can be explained by the divergences in electricity, refining and inland transport industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gas emissions increased by 8.9 Gigatons CO2 equivalent (Gt) in die period 1995-2008. A phenomenon that has received due attention is the upsurge of emission transfers via international trade. A question that has remained unanswered is whether trade changes have affected global emissions. For each of five factors (one of which is trade changes) in 40 countries we quantify its contribution to the growth in global emissions. We find that the changes in the levels of consumption per capita have led to an enormous growth in emissions (+14.0 Gt). This effect was partly offset by the changes in technology (-8.4 Gt). Smaller effects are found for population growth (+4.2 Gt) and changes in the composition of the consumption (-1.5 Gt). Changes in the trade structure had a very moderate effect on global emissions (+0.6 Gt). Looking at the geographical distribution, changes in the emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China) have caused 44% of emission growth whereas the increase in their national emissions accounted for 59% of emission growth. This means that 15% (1.4 Gt) of all extra GHG emissions between 1995 and 2008 have been emitted in emerging countries but were caused by changes in other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article quantifies for the first time the European employment effects of extra- EU exports and the correct number of jobs generated through the intra- EU trade (single market) associated with the production of such exports. The literature has neglected very often the latter effects mainly due to the lack of an appropriate methodology and data. The main results of the article show that, between 2000 and 2007, an increasing number of European jobs were dependent on extra- EU exports and on the strengthening of the trade linkages across the internal market. During the period considered, the EU employment supported by extra- EU exports grew from 22 to 25 million jobs, out of which 9 million jobs (in 2007) were due to spillover and feedback effects associated with the single market. Between 2000 and 2007 the EU also became a more vertically integrated economy, and reduced the labour intensity of the extra- EU exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Total material requirement (TMR), a measure of all of the material input required by a national economy, is sometimes criticized for failing to link material flows within an economy and their global environmental impacts. This article presents a three-step method for bridging this gap. The method shows how to (1) analyze TMR accounts to identify potentially environmentally relevant flows (PERF), that is, material flows with potential environmental impacts abroad; (2) assess the socioenvironmental impacts of the identified PERF; and (3) determine the main economic activities underlying these PERF. Using this method we are able to add an environmental dimension to TMR accounts and to make the connection between economic activities and their socioenvironmental impacts worldwide. This methodology has been applied to the Basque Country (BC) region (Spain). An in-depth analysis of the trends in the TMR of the BC shows that tin imports associated with tin capsule production account for around 7% of the TMR. These high figures are due to the substantial hidden flows (HF) of tin imports, which is an indicator of potential environmental impacts abroad. We find that tin extraction and concentration involve several social and environmental impacts such as waste generation, soil, water, and air pollution affecting biodiversity and human health, and child labor. These impacts are located in Indonesia, China, Peru, Bolivia, Brazil, Malaysia, and Thailand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of input-output assessments focused on energy has grown considerably in the last years. Many of these assessments combine data from multi-regional input-output (MRIO) databases with energy extensions that completely or partially depict the different stages through which energy products are supplied or used in the economy. The improper use of some energy extensions can lead to double accounting of some energy flows, but the frequency with which this happens and the potential impact on the results are unknown. Based on a literature review, we estimate that around a quarter of the MRIO-based energy assessments reviewed incurred into double accounting. Using the EXIOBASE MRIO database, we also analyse the effects of double accounting in the absolute values and rankings of different countries' and products' energy footprints. Building on the insights provided by our analysis, we offer a set of key recommendations to MRIO users to avoid the double accounting problem in the future. Likewise, we conclude that the harmonisation of the energy data across MRIO databases led by experts could simplify the choices of the data users until the provision of official energy extensions by statistical offices becomes a widespread practice. • Overview of energy extensions in multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis. • Review of MRIO-based energy assessments. • Identification of double accounting in MRIO-based energy assessments. • Quantification of how results are affected by double accounting. • Recommendations for energy extension producers and users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of simulation models is essential when exploring transitions to low-carbon futures and climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. There are many models developed to understand socio-environmental processes and interactions, and analyze alternative scenarios, but hardly one single model can serve all the needs. There is much expectation in climate-energy research that constructing new purposeful models out of existing models used as building blocks can meet particular needs of research and policy analysis. Integration of existing models, however, implies sophisticated coordination of inputs and outputs across different scales, definitions, data and software. This paper presents an online integration platform which links various independent models to enhance their scope and functionality. We illustrate the functionality of this web platform using several simulation models developed as standalone tools for analyzing energy, climate and economy dynamics. The models differ in levels of complexity, assumptions, modeling paradigms and programming languages, and operate at different temporal and spatial scales, from individual to global. To illustrate the integration process and the internal details of our integration framework we link an Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM), a Computable General Equilibrium model (EXIOMOD), and an Agent Based Model (BENCH). This toolkit is generic for similar integrated modeling studies. It still requires extensive pre-integration assessment to identify the 'appropriate' models and links between them. After that, using the web service approach we can streamline module coupling, enabling interoperability between different systems and providing open access to information for a wider community of users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In pursuit of the drastic transformations necessary for effectively responding to climate change, the Paris Agreement stresses the need to design and implement sustainable, robust, and socially acceptable policy pathways in a globally coordinated and cooperative manner. For decades, the scientific community has been carrying out quantitative modelling exercises in support of climate policy design, primarily by means of energy systems and integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Here, we describe in detail the context of a hitherto ineffective scientific contribution to policymaking, highlight the available means to formulate a new paradigm that overcomes existing and emerging challenges, and ultimately call for change. In particular, we argue that individual modelling exercises alone widen the gap between formal representation and real-life context in which decisions are taken, and investigate major criticisms to which formalised modelling frameworks are subject. We essentially highlight the importance of employing diverse modelling ensembles, placing the human factor at the core of all modelling processes, and enhancing the robustness of model-driven policy prescriptions through decision support systems. These altogether compose a truly integrative approach to supporting the design of effective climate policy and sustainable transitions and, therefore, strengthen the modelling–policymaking interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main concerns in international climate negotiations is policy fragmentation, which could increase the carbon emissions of non-participating countries. Until very recently the carbon leakage literature has focused mainly on ‘industrial’ carbon leakage. However, there is another potential channel that has received little attention so far: the carbon leakage triggered by land-use change (‘terrestrial’ carbon leakage). In this article we use an integrated assessment model to explore these two forms of leakage in a situation where CO2emissions in all sectors, including those from land-use change, are taxed equally. Our results show that under different fragmentation scenarios terrestrial carbon leakage may be the dominant type of leakage up to 2050. When participating regions tax land-use emissions, forest area expands partly by shifting food and bioenergy production to non-participating regions. This reduces forest area in non-participating regions and increases their land-use emissions. Policy relevance Preventing industrial carbon leakage has been an important aspect of climate policy design. One clear policy implication of our study is that anti-leakage policy measures should also be considered for land-use change sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The water footprint (WF) of national consumption of wood products is estimated. • The MRIO model used tracks water use across global wood supply chains in 1997-2017. • 38% of the global WF of wood production relates to wood products for export, in 2017. • 10% of the green WF and 11% of the blue WF of wood products in 2017 are unsustainable. • The (unsustainable) WF of wood products is largely green (as opposed to blue) water. Several studies addressed the water footprint (WF) of countries and virtual water (VW) trade in agricultural and industrial products, but freshwater use associated with wood products has received little attention. Yet, international trade in wood products has been growing, and forestry competes with other forest ecosystem services over limited freshwater resources. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to assess nations' WFs of consumption of wood products, the sustainability of these WFs, and the VW flows associated with international trade in wood products. We account nations' WFs of and VW trade in wood products with a Multi-regional Input-Output model (MRIO-forest) that tracks wood flows along global supply chains (production, processing, trade, and final uses) for the period 1997-2017 and assess the sustainability of the green and blue WF of wood products in 2017. The WF of wood production increased from 8.37 × 1011 m3/y in 1997 to 9.87 × 1011 m3/y in 2017. About 38% (3.76 × 1011 m3/y) of this WF relates to wood products for export (in 2017), which means that VW trade associated with wood products ranks in between agricultural and industrial products in absolute volumes. About 10% (9.9 × 1010 m³/y) of the green WF and 11% (3.4 × 109 m³/y) of the blue WF of wood products in 2017 are unsustainable, meaning that they are located in areas where the total green/blue WF exceeds the maximum sustainable green/blue WF. The unsustainable green WF occurs mainly in Germany, Indonesia, the Czech Republic and the UK, and mainly relates to coniferous sawnwood, paper and paperboard other than newsprint, fibreboard and non-coniferous sawnwood. The unsustainable blue WF, which is much smaller, occurs in the USA, Russia. Nigeria, Canada and India, and mainly relates to fuelwood, paper and paperboard other than newsprint, sawnwood and fibreboard. This study increases our understanding of how forest evaporation flows link to the final consumption of wood products and contributes to the wider debate on the allocation of freshwater resources in the global economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]