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Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half‐century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land‐use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change. Key Points: The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East is warming almost two times faster than the global average and other inhabited parts of the worldClimate projections indicate a future warming, strongest in summers. Precipitation will likely decrease, particularly in the MediterraneanVirtually all socio‐economic sectors will be critically affected by the projected changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Sea surface temperature ( SST) is an important oceanic variable that impacts regional and global climate. This paper examines the relation of summer (June to August) surface air temperature ( SAT) variability over Saudi Arabia (1948-2013) with SST over the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SAT over Saudi Arabia shows an abrupt increase around the 1980s (i.e. 1986). Partial correlations between SAT and different SST indices indicate that the Indo-Pacific warm pool ( IPWP) has a more significant effect on SAT than does the tropical North Atlantic ( TNA), tropical South Atlantic ( TSA) or Western Hemisphere warm pool ( WHWP). Hence, the change in IPWP SST can be considered as one of the factors linked to increase SAT over Saudi Arabia. The only significant relationship between El Niño and SAT is found in the Niño 4 region. Moreover, interactions between the tropical Atlantic meridional gradient mode and SAT are undetectable in the summer season, indicating that the TNA and TSA may have effectively independent roles on SAT over Saudi Arabia. The tropical Atlantic, through TNA and TSA, may influence the IPWP SST which modifies the strength of the Indian monsoon low, and in turn, has a strong influence on Saudi Arabia SAT variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An extreme heat wave hit Egypt in summer 2015. Abnormal hot weather conditions existed over Egypt for the entire summer season. The present paper investigates the relationship between the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over Africa and a scorching heat wave that existed over Egypt in summer 2015. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data of mean surface air temperature for the domain of Egypt for the summer season from 1948 to 2015 were used in this study. In addition, data of the daily maximum and daily minimum temperature used for the summer season of the year 2015 were also used. Time cross-section analysis of the daily operational data of geopotential height at level 500 hPa over Egypt from 1 June to 31 August 2015 was done. Moreover, the African ITCZ, both the western and the eastern ITCZ, data for summer of 2015 were used for the said period. The time series, time cross-section, anomaly, and correlation coefficient techniques were used to analyze the datasets. The results revealed that a new climate change record of heat wave over Egypt existed in summer 2015. Moreover, there is an outstanding significant positive correlation between the abrupt shift of African ITCZ position and heat wave occurrence over Egypt in summer 2015. In particular, the southerly movement of the eastern African ITCZ controls the weather over Egypt and led to the extreme heat wave in summer 2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is suffering from abnormal cooling of weather conditions and existence of an extreme weather phenomenon known as ice storm Alexa. The present paper investigates the weather conditions over Europe that causes this abnormal weather over the EMME through December of 2013. Daily data sets of several meteorological elements (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, sea level pressure, and geopotential height at level 500 hPa, etc.) over the northern hemisphere, including Europe and EMME of December of 2013, have been used through the present work. In addition, to that, a time cross section analysis of the daily operational data for meteorological elements (mean surface temperature, temperature and geopotential height at level 500 hPa, relative humidity, precipitation rate, and sea surface pressure) was done over the EMME for December 2013. The methodology of anomaly and correlation coefficient techniques for the data sets has been used. The results uncovered that the EMME has abnormal and very cold weather conditions due to the inference of meridional blocking persisted over Europe and the existence of the extremely negative geopotential height anomaly aloft over Eastern Europe throughout this month. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An endeavour is made to investigate the performance of convective parameterization schemes on the simulation of South Asian summer monsoon features through a regional climate model (RegCM). For this purpose, RegCM version 4.3 developed by International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) is used for the simulation experiments in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework over the South Asia domain. Four convective schemes, namely, Emanuel, Grell, Tiedtke and a mixed scheme (Emanuel over land and Grell over the ocean) are evaluated in RegCM4.3 at 45 km horizontal resolution. The simulated results of precipitation, temperature and wind fields are systematically evaluated respectively with Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU) and ECMWF re-analysis (ERA) Interim datasets. The results reveal that the response of a mixed convective scheme is better in simulating precipitation and temperature realistically over the Indian subcontinent and is in close agreement with the TRMM observations, compared with the three other schemes. The circulation features are also properly represented with the mixed convection scheme. Furthermore, the annual cycle of precipitation and temperature averaged over the Indian region are well estimated in the mixed scheme, compared with the CRU observations. The northward propagation of monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations in extreme monsoon seasons is simulated reasonably in a mixed convection scheme as compared with three other schemes. The inter-annual variability of area averaged JJAS precipitation over the Indian region is simulated well by the model for the combination of Emanuel over land and Grell over the ocean. Grell scheme overestimates the JJAS precipitation, whereas Emanual and Tiedtke schemes underestimate it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A workshop was held in Casablanca, Morocco, in March 2012, to enhance knowledge of climate extremes and their changes in the Arab region. This workshop initiated intensive data compilation activities of daily observational weather station data from the Arab region. After conducting careful control processes to ensure the quality and homogeneity of the data, climate indices for extreme temperatures and precipitation were calculated. This study examines the temporal changes in climate extremes in the Arab region with regard to long-term trends and natural variability related to ENSO and NAO. We find consistent warming trends since the middle of the 20th Century across the region. This is evident in the increased frequencies of warm days and warm nights, higher extreme temperature values, fewer cold days and cold nights and shorter cold spell durations. The warming trends seem to be particularly strong since the early 1970s. Changes in precipitation are generally less consistent and characterised by a higher spatial and temporal variability; the trends are generally less significant. However, in the western part of the Arab region, there is a tendency towards wetter conditions. In contrast, in the eastern part, there are more drying trends, although, these are of low significance. We also find some relationships between climate extremes in the Arab region and certain prominent modes of variability, in particular El Niño-Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO). The relationships of the climate extremes with NAO are stronger, in general, than those with ENSO, and are particularly strong in the western part of the Arab region (closer to the Atlantic Ocean). The relationships with ENSO are found to be more significant towards the eastern part of the area of study. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper investigates the role played by blocking high systems over Europe in abnormal weather over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in summer 2010. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data of several meteorological elements such as surface air temperature, wind, sea level pressure, relative humidity, outgoing long wave radiation, precipitation rate, and geopotential height at level 500 hpa) for summer seasons for the period 1948-2012 and in particular of summer 2010 have been used and analyzed through the present work. Furthermore, the corresponding daily and monthly mean values of climatic indices NAO index, SOI, and El-Nino3.4 have been analyzed. The results uncovered that air current in the upper atmosphere over Europe and NAO, SOI and El-Nino3.4 have impacts on the weather conditions over KSA through the study period 1948-2012. During the period of persistence of blocking system over Europe in summer 2010, results revealed that; weather in KSA was fully controlled by two abnormal weather regimes. The first one is the European blocking system and negative anomaly of NA Of rom the north. The second one is the positive anomaly of SOI and negative anomaly of El-Nino3.4. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis of the kinetic energy budget for a tropical cyclone has been made in this work. Horizontal flux convergence constitutes a major energy source. Generation of kinetic energy via cross-contour flow is a persistent sink throughout the pre-storm and growth periods. Dissipation of kinetic energy from subgrid to grid scales is an important source during the pre-storm and growth periods. It acts as the major sink of energy during the decay period. The major contribution to kinetic energy comes from a persistent upper tropospheric jet stream activity throughout the period of the cyclone development. Unlike midlatitude cyclones a considerable quantity of kinetic energy appears between 850-500 hPa layers especially during the growth period. While the behavior of the values of horizontal divergence by nondivergent wind closely resemble to those of total horizontal divergence term, neglecting the divergent part of the wind would clearly lead to a considerable error in the calculation of total horizontal divergence. The mean error in approximation of total horizontal divergence by the nondivergent part during the life cycle of our cyclone is about 36 %. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]