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Abstract Background Vascular prevention trials typically use dichotomous event outcomes although this may be inefficient statistically and gives no indication of event severity. We assessed whether ordinal outcomes would be more efficient and how to best analyse them. Methods Chief investigators of vascular prevention randomised controlled trials that showed evidence of either benefit or harm, or were included in a systematic review that overall showed benefit or harm, shared individual participant data from their trials. Ordered categorical versions of vascular event outcomes (such as stroke and myocardial infarction) were analysed using 15 statistical techniques and their results then ranked, with the result with the smallest p-value given the smallest rank. Friedman and Duncan’s multiple range tests were performed to assess differences between tests by comparing the average ranks for each statistical test. Results Data from 35 trials (254,223 participants) were shared with the collaboration. 13 trials had more than two treatment arms, resulting in 59 comparisons. Analysis approaches (Mann Whitney U, ordinal logistic regression, multiple regression, bootstrapping) that used ordinal outcome data had a smaller average rank and therefore appeared to be more efficient statistically than those that analysed the original binary outcomes. Conclusions Ordinal vascular outcome measures appear to be more efficient statistically than binary outcomes and provide information on the severity of event. We suggest a potential role for using ordinal outcomes in vascular prevention trials.

Background Intra-arterial treatment (IAT) improves outcomes in acute ischaemic stroke. Presence of collaterals increases likelihood of good outcome. We investigated whether variations in the circle of Willis (CoW) and contributing carotid arteries influence outcome in patients who had a stroke treated with IAT.Methods CT angiography data on patients who had an acute stroke treated with IAT were retrospectively collected. CoW was regarded complete if the contralateral A1 segment, anterior communicating artery and ipsilateral posterior communicating artery were fully developed, and the P1 segment was visible. Carotid artery contribution was studied with a self-developed carotid artery score ranging from 0 to 2 depending on the number of arteries supplying the occluded side of the CoW. Good clinical outcome was defined as modified Rankin Score ≤2 and measured at discharge and 3 months. We calculated risk ratios for the relation between completeness of the CoW, carotid score and good outcome, and performed a trend analysis for good outcome according to the carotid score.Results 126 patients were included for analysis. Patients with a complete and incomplete CoW had a comparable risk for good outcome at discharge and 3 months. A higher carotid score was associated with a higher likelihood of good clinical outcome (p for trend 0.24 at discharge and 0.05 at 3 months).Conclusion In patients with acute ischaemic stroke treated with IAT, chances of good clinical outcome tended to improve with number of carotid arteries supplying the cerebral circulation. Completeness of the CoW was not related to clinical outcome.

Background: The knowledge of factors influencing disease progression in patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) is still relatively limited. One potential pathway is related to peroxisome proliferator–activated receptor gamma coactivator-1 alpha (PPARGC1A), a transcription factor linked to energy metabolism which may play a role in the heart function. Thus, its associations with subsequent CHD events remain unclear. We aimed to investigate the effect of three different SNPs in the PPARGC1A gene on the risk of subsequent CHD in a population with established CHD.Methods: We employed an individual-level meta-analysis using 23 studies from the GENetIcs of sUbSequent Coronary Heart Disease (GENIUS-CHD) consortium, which included participants (n = 80,900) with either acute coronary syndrome, stable CHD, or a mixture of both at baseline. Three variants in the PPARGC1A gene (rs8192678, G482S; rs7672915, intron 2; and rs3755863, T528T) were tested for their associations with subsequent events during the follow-up using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for age and sex. The primary outcome was subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction (CHD death/myocardial infarction). Stratified analyses of the participant or study characteristics as well as additional analyses for secondary outcomes of specific cardiovascular disease diagnoses and all-cause death were also performed.Results: Meta-analysis revealed no significant association between any of the three variants in the PPARGC1A gene and the primary outcome of CHD death/myocardial infarction among those with established CHD at baseline: rs8192678, hazard ratio (HR): 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.98–1.05 and rs7672915, HR: 0.97, 95% CI 0.94–1.00; rs3755863, HR: 1.02, 95% CI 0.99–1.06. Similarly, no significant associations were observed for any of the secondary outcomes. The results from stratified analyses showed null results, except for significant inverse associations between rs7672915 (intron 2) and the primary outcome among 1) individuals aged ≥65, 2) individuals with renal impairment, and 3) antiplatelet users.Conclusion: We found no clear associations between polymorphisms in the PPARGC1A gene and subsequent CHD events in patients with established CHD at baseline.

Background We investigated whether blood pressure lowering for secondary prevention is associated with a reduction in recurrent stroke risk and/or a higher risk of adverse events in very elderly compared with younger trial participants. Methods and Results This is a random effects meta‐analysis of randomized controlled trials of blood pressure lowering for secondary stroke prevention to evaluate age‐stratified (

Abstract Background We aimed to investigate the role of hypercoagulability on the risk of lifetime cardiovascular recurrences after myocardial infarction or ischaemic stroke. Methods Young women (

BACKGROUND:In stroke studies, ordinal logistic regression (OLR) is often used to analyze outcome on the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), whereas the non-parametric Mann-Whitney measure of superiority (MWS) has also been suggested. It is unclear how these perform comparatively when confounding adjustment is warranted. AIMS:Our aim is to quantify the performance of OLR and MWS in different confounding variable settings. METHODS:We set up a simulation study with three different scenarios; (1) dichotomous confounding variables, (2) continuous confounding variables, and (3) confounding variable settings mimicking a study on functional outcome after stroke. We compared adjusted ordinal logistic regression (aOLR) and stratified Mann-Whitney measure of superiority (sMWS), and also used propensity scores to stratify the MWS (psMWS). For comparability, OLR estimates were transformed to a MWS. We report bias, the percentage of runs that produced a point estimate deviating by more than 0.05 points (point estimate variation), and the coverage probability. RESULTS:In scenario 1, there was no bias in both sMWS and aOLR, with similar point estimate variation and coverage probabilities. In scenario 2, sMWS resulted in more bias (0.04 versus 0.00), and higher point estimate variation (41.6% versus 3.3%), whereas coverage probabilities were similar. In scenario 3, there was no bias in both methods, point estimate variation was higher in the sMWS (6.7%) versus aOLR (1.1%), and coverage probabilities were 0.98 (sMWS) versus 0.95 (aOLR). With psMWS, bias remained 0.00, with less point estimate variation (1.5%) and a coverage probability of 0.95. CONCLUSIONS:The bias of both adjustment methods was similar in our stroke simulation scenario, and the higher point estimate variation in the MWS improved with propensity score based stratification. The stratified MWS is a valid alternative for adjusted OLR only when the ratio of number of strata versus number of observations is relatively low, but propensity score based stratification extends the application range of the MWS.

Background and purposePatient and aneurysm characteristics have been reported to differ between patients with familial and non-familial intracranial aneurysms (IAs), although results are inconsistent. We systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed the literature to identify and quantify patient- and aneurysm characteristics associated with familial IAs.MethodsWe searched PubMed and EMBASE for case-control and cohort studies comparing patient- and aneurysm characteristics between familial and non-familial IAs. Two observers independently assessed study eligibility and appraised quality with the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. With univariable weighted linear regression analysis we calculated β-coefficients with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for ruptured and unruptured IAs combined and for ruptured IAs only. Heterogeneity was assessed with Higgins I2.ResultsA total of 15 articles were included in the meta-analysis in which 16,346 patients were analyzed with a total of 14,225 IAs. For ruptured and unruptured IAs combined, multiple IAs were more prevalent in familial (28.5%) than in non-familial IAs (20.4%; β = 0.10, 95% CI, 0.04 to 0.16; I2 0%). For ruptured IAs only, in familial patients IAs were more prevalent on the middle cerebral artery (41.1% versus 29.5%; β = 0.12, 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.24; I2 12%) and ruptured at a younger age (46.5 years versus 50.8 years; β = -5.00, 95% CI, -9.31 to -0.69; I2 98%) than in non-familial patients. No significant differences were found for the proportion of women, size of the aneurysm at time of rupture, smoking or hypertension.ConclusionThese results suggest that characteristics of familial and non-familial IAs show considerable overlap, yet differ on specific aspects. However, results for age at rupture showed considerable heterogeneity. These findings should be taken into consideration for future etiological research into IAs.

BackgroundIschemic and hemorrhagic stroke are increasingly recognized as heterogeneous diseases with distinct subtypes and etiologies. Information on variation in distribution of vascular risk factors according to age in stroke subtypes is limited. We investigated the prevalence of vascular risk factors in stroke subtypes in relation to age. Methods and ResultsWe studied a prospective multicenter university hospital–based cohort of 4033 patients. For patients with ischemic stroke caused by large artery atherosclerosis, small vessel disease, or cardioembolism and for patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage or aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, we calculated prevalences of vascular risk factors in 4 age groups:

Lobar and non-lobar non-traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are presumably caused by different types of small vessel diseases. The aim of this study was to assess risk factors for ICH according to location.In two large prospective studies, SMART (n = 9088) and ESPRIT (n = 2625), including patients with manifest cardiovascular, cerebrovascular or peripheral artery disease or with vascular risk factors, we investigated potential risk factors for ICH during follow-up according to lobar or non-lobar location by Cox proportional hazards analyses.During 65,156 patient years of follow up 19 patients had lobar ICH (incidence rate 29, 95% CI 19-42 per 100,000 person-years) and 24 non-lobar ICH (incidence rate 37, 95% CI 26-51 per 100,000 person-years). Age significantly increased the risk of lobar ICH (HR per 10 years increase 1.90; 95% CI 1.17-3.10) in the multivariable analysis, but not of non-lobar hemorrhage. Anticoagulant medication (HR 3.49; 95% CI 1.20-10.2) and male sex (HR 3.79; 95% CI 1.13-12.8) increased the risk of non-lobar but not lobar ICH.This study shows an elevated risk of future ICH in patients with manifestations of, or risk factors for, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular or peripheral artery disease. Our data suggest that risk factors for ICH vary according to location, supporting the hypothesis of a differential pathophysiology of lobar and non-lobar ICH.

Hypercoagulability increases the risk of arterial thrombosis; however, this effect may differ between various manifestations of arterial disease.In this study, we compared the effect of coagulation factors as measures of hypercoagulability on the risk of ischaemic stroke (IS) and myocardial infarction (MI) by performing a systematic review of the literature. The effect of a risk factor on IS (relative risk for IS, RRIS) was compared with the effect on MI (RRMI) by calculating their ratio (RRR = RRIS/RRMI). A relevant differential effect was considered when RRR was >1+ its own standard error (SE) or 1+1SE) was found in 49/343 (14%) markers. Of these, 18/49 (37%) had an RRR greater than 1+2SE. On the opposite side, a larger effect on MI risk (RRR

Patients who have suffered from cerebral ischemia have a high risk of recurrent vascular events. Predictive models based on classical risk factors typically have limited prognostic value. Given that cerebral ischemia has a heritable component, genetic information might improve performance of these risk models. Our aim was to develop and compare two models: one containing traditional vascular risk factors, the other also including genetic information.We studied 1020 patients with cerebral ischemia and genotyped them with the Illumina Immunochip. Median follow-up time was 6.5 years; the annual incidence of new ischemic events (primary outcome, n=198) was 3.0%. The prognostic model based on classical vascular risk factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.61-0.69). When we added a genetic risk score based on prioritized SNPs from a genome-wide association study of ischemic stroke (using summary statistics from the METASTROKE study which included 12389 cases and 62004 controls), the AUC-ROC remained the same. Similar results were found for the secondary outcome ischemic stroke.We found no additional value of genetic information in a prognostic model for the risk of ischemic events in patients with cerebral ischemia of arterial origin. This is consistent with a complex, polygenic architecture, where many genes of weak effect likely act in concert to influence the heritable risk of an individual to develop (recurrent) vascular events. At present, genetic information cannot help clinicians to distinguish patients at high risk for recurrent vascular events.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have begun to identify the common genetic component to ischaemic stroke (IS). However, IS has considerable phenotypic heterogeneity. Where clinical covariates explain a large fraction of disease risk, covariate informed designs can increase power to detect associations. As prevalence rates in IS are markedly affected by age, and younger onset cases may have higher genetic predisposition, we investigated whether an age-at-onset informed approach could detect novel associations with IS and its subtypes; cardioembolic (CE), large artery atherosclerosis (LAA) and small vessel disease (SVD) in 6,778 cases of European ancestry and 12,095 ancestry-matched controls. Regression analysis to identify SNP associations was performed on posterior liabilities after conditioning on age-at-onset and affection status. We sought further evidence of an association with LAA in 1,881 cases and 50,817 controls, and examined mRNA expression levels of the nearby genes in atherosclerotic carotid artery plaques. Secondly, we performed permutation analyses to evaluate the extent to which age-at-onset informed analysis improves significance for novel loci. We identified a novel association with an MMP12 locus in LAA (rs660599; p = 2.5×10⁻⁷), with independent replication in a second population (p = 0.0048, OR(95% CI) = 1.18(1.05-1.32); meta-analysis p = 2.6×10⁻⁸). The nearby gene, MMP12, was significantly overexpressed in carotid plaques compared to atherosclerosis-free control arteries (p = 1.2×10⁻¹⁵; fold change = 335.6). Permutation analyses demonstrated improved significance for associations when accounting for age-at-onset in all four stroke phenotypes (p

Caveolin-1 (Cav-1) is a regulatory protein of the arterial wall, but its role in human atherosclerosis remains unknown. We have studied the relationships between Cav-1 abundance, atherosclerotic plaque characteristics and clinical manisfestations of atherosclerotic disease.We determined Cav-1 expression by western blotting in atherosclerotic plaques harvested from 378 subjects that underwent carotid endarterectomy. Cav-1 levels were significantly lower in carotid plaques than non-atherosclerotic vascular specimens. Low Cav-1 expression was associated with features of plaque instability such as large lipid core, thrombus formation, macrophage infiltration, high IL-6, IL-8 levels and elevated MMP-9 activity. Clinically, a down-regulation of Cav-1 was observed in plaques obtained from men, patients with a history of myocardial infarction and restenotic lesions. Cav-1 levels above the median were associated with absence of new vascular events within 30 days after surgery [0% vs. 4%] and a trend towards lower incidence of new cardiovascular events during longer follow-up. Consistent with these clinical data, Cav-1 null mice revealed elevated intimal hyperplasia response following arterial injury that was significantly attenuated after MMP inhibition. Recombinant peptides mimicking Cav-1 scaffolding domain (Cavtratin) reduced gelatinase activity in cultured porcine arteries and impaired MMP-9 activity and COX-2 in LPS-challenged macrophages. Administration of Cavtratin strongly impaired flow-induced expansive remodeling in mice. This is the first study that identifies Cav-1 as a novel potential stabilizing factor in human atherosclerosis. Our findings support the hypothesis that local down-regulation of Cav-1 in atherosclerotic lesions contributes to plaque formation and/or instability accelerating the occurrence of adverse clinical outcomes. Therefore, given the large number of patients studied, we believe that Cav-1 may be considered as a novel target in the prevention of human atherosclerotic disease and the loss of Cav-1 may be a novel biomarker of vulnerable plaque with prognostic value.