Search

Background The breeding time of many species has changed over the past 2–3 decades in response to climate change. Yet it is a key reproductive trait that affects individual's parturition time and reproductive success, and thereby population dynamics. In order to predict how climate change will affect species’ viability, it is crucial to understand how species base their reproductive efforts on environmental cues. Results By using long-term datasets of mating behaviours and copulation dates recorded since 1996 on a semi-domesticated reindeer population, we showed that mating time occurred earlier in response to weather conditions at different key periods in their annual breeding cycle. The mating time occurred earlier following a reducing snow cover in early spring, colder minimum temperatures in the last 2 weeks of July and less precipitation in August-September. Conclusions The mediated effect of a reduced snow cover in early spring on improving individuals’ pre-rut body weight through a better availability of late winter food and reduced costs of locomotion on snow would explain that mating time has occurred earlier overtime. A lower level of insect harassment caused by colder maximum temperatures in July might have caused an advance in mating time. Less precipitation in August-September also caused the mating time to occur earlier, although the direct effects of the last two weather variables were not mediated through the pre-rut body weight of individuals. As such, the causal effects of weather conditions on seasonal timing of animals are still unclear and other mechanisms than just body weight might be involved (e.g. socio-biological factors). The plastic response of reindeer mating time to climatic variability, despite supplemental feeding occurring in late April, demonstrated that environmental factors may have a greater influence on reproductive outputs than previously thought in reindeer.

The acquisition of tolerance to an environmental stressor can result in organisms displaying slower growth after stress release. While well-grounded in the theory, empirical evidence of the trade-off between stress tolerance and organism fitness is scarce and blurred by the interaction with different environmental factors. Here, we report the effects of water browning on the responses, tolerance acquisition, and associated trade-offs in a population of microalgae exposed to sublethal concentrations of organic micropollutants over multiple generations. Our results show that dissolved organic matter (DOM) reduces toxic responses and modulates tolerance acquisition by the algae, possibly by complexing micropollutants. Microalgae that acquire tolerance allocate resources to fitness at the cost of reduced cell size. They yield higher productivity than nonadapted ones when grown in the presence of micropollutants but lower in their absence. The net trade-off was positive, indicating that adaptation can result in a higher productivity and fitness in tolerant species in recurrently stressed environments.

1. Warming in the Arctic is predicted to change freshwater biodiversity through loss of unique taxa and northward range expansion of lower latitude taxa. Detecting such changes requires establishing circumpolar baselines for diversity, and understanding the primary drivers of diversity. 2. We examined benthic macroinvertebrate diversity using a circumpolar dataset of >1,500 Arctic lake and river sites. Rarefied α diversity within catchments was assessed along latitude and temperature gradients. Community composition was assessed through region-scale analysis of β diversity and its components (nestedness and turnover), and analysis of biotic–abiotic relationships. 3. Rarefied α diversity of lakes and rivers declined with increasing latitude, although more strongly across mainland regions than islands. Diversity was strongly related to air temperature, with the lowest diversity in the coldest catchments. Regional dissimilarity was highest when mainland regions were compared with islands, suggesting that connectivity limitations led to the strongest dissimilarity. High contributions of nestedness indicated that island regions contained a subset of the taxa found in mainland regions. 4. High Arctic rivers and lakes were predominately occupied by Chironomidae and Oligochaeta, whereas Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa were more abundant at lower latitudes. Community composition was strongly associated with temperature, although geology and precipitation were also important correlates. 5. The strong association with temperature supports the prediction that warming will increase Arctic macroinvertebrate diversity, although low diversity on islands suggests that this increase will be limited by biogeographical constraints. Long-term harmonised monitoring across the circumpolar region is necessary to detect such changes to diversity and inform science-based management. benthic invertebrates, dispersal, diversity, high latitude, lake, river

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: "Circumpolar patterns of Arctic freshwater fish biodiversity: A baseline for monitoring", which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13405. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions Climate change, biological invasions, and anthropogenic disturbance pose a threat to the biodiversity and function of Arctic freshwater ecosystems. Understanding potential changes in fish species distribution and richness is necessary, given the great importance of fish to the function of freshwater ecosystems and as a resource to humans. However, information gaps limit large‐scale studies and our ability to determine patterns and trends in space and time. This study takes the first step in determining circumpolar patterns of fish species richness and composition, which provides a baseline to improve both monitoring and conservation of Arctic freshwater biodiversity. Information on species presence/absence was gathered from the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program's Freshwater Database and used to examine patterns of freshwater fish γ‐, α‐, and β‐diversity across 234° of longitude in the Arctic. The metrics of diversity provided information on species richness and composition across hydrobasins, ecoregions, and Arctic zones. Circumpolar patterns of fish species biodiversity varied with latitude, isolation, and coarse ecoregion characteristics; patterns were consistent with historic and contemporary barriers to colonisation and environmental characteristics. Gamma‐diversity was lower in the high Arctic compared to lower latitude zones, but α‐diversity did not decrease with increasing latitude below 71°N, reflecting glacial history. Alpha‐diversity was reduced to a single species, Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus, in ecoregions above 71°N, where γ‐diversity was the lowest. Beta‐diversity indicated little variation in the composition and richness of species across the High Arctic; at lower latitudes, ecoregions contained more species, although species composition turned over across large spatial extents. In an analysis of five ecoregions in the circumpolar Arctic, physical isolation, and ecoregion area and topography were identified as strong drivers of γ‐, α‐, and β‐diversity. Physical isolation reduced the γ‐ and α‐diversity, and changes in β‐diversity between adjacent locations were due mainly to losses in species richness, rather than due to differences in species composition. Heterogeneity of habitats, environmental gradients, and geographic distance probably contributed to patterns of fish dissimilarity within and across ecoregions. This study presents the first analysis of large‐scale patterns of freshwater fish biodiversity in the circumpolar Arctic. However, information gaps in space, time, and among taxonomic groups remain. Future inclusion of extensive archive and new data will allow future studies to test for changes and drivers of the observed patterns of biodiversity. This is important given the potential impacts of ongoing and accelerating climate change, land use, and biotic exchange on Arctic fish biodiversity.

SiriR This study tests the stability of environmental preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) values using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) across three countries pre and post the peak of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. A DCE eamining the public’s preferences for alternative environmental management plans on the high seas, in the area of the Flemish Cap, was carried out in Canada, Scotland and Norway in late 2019 and was rerun in early May 2020 shortly after the Covid-19 pandemic had officially peaked in the three countries. The same choice set sequence is tested across the two periods, using different but nationally representative samples in each case. Entropy balancing, a multivariate reweighting method, is used to achieve covariate balance between the pre and post Covid samples in the analysis. The results suggest that both preferences and WTP remain relatively stable in the face of a major public health crisis and economic upheaval.

The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published the first part of its sixth assessment report (AR6) which summarises the latest climate science findings and will guide policy in the years ahead. This report is particularly timely, as world leaders prepare to respond to the climate crisis at the UN COP26 climate summit in Glasgow this November. The full AR6 report is an enormous scientific undertaking that assesses the physical science basis for climate change and assembles the findings from over 14,000 peer reviewed publications. The purpose of this briefing document is to provide a succinct summary of the key scientific messages.

Climate change and air pollution can interact to amplify risks to human health and crop production. This has significant implications for our ability to reach the Sustainable Development Goals (e.g. SDGs 2, 3, 13, 15) and for the design of effective mitigation and adaptation policies and risk management. To be able to achieve the SDG targets, closer integration of climate change and air pollution both in terms of impact assessment for human health and agricultural productivity and respective policy development is needed. Currently, studies estimating the impacts of climate and air pollutants on human health and crops mostly treat these stressors separately, and the methods used by the health and agricultural science communities differ. Better insights into the methods applied in the different communities can help to improve existing and develop new methods to advance our knowledge about the combined impacts of climate change and air pollution on human health and crops. This topical review provides an overview of current methodologies applied in the two fields of human health and agricultural crop impact studies, ranging from empirical regression-based and experimental methods to more complex process-based models. The latter are reasonably well developed for estimating impacts on agricultural crops, but not for health impacts. We review available literature addressing the combined effects of climate and air pollution on human health or agricultural productivity to provide insights regarding state-of-the-art knowledge and currently available methods in the two fields. Challenges to assess the combined effect of climate and air pollution on human health and crops, and opportunities for both fields to learn from each other, are discussed.

Climate change is a major threat to sustained economic growth and wellbeing in the Global South. To what extent does official development assistance (ODA) strengthen recipient communities’ capacity to cope with climatic extremes? Here, we investigate whether inflow of development aid mitigates adverse health impacts of subsequent drought among children under 5 years of age, drawing on survey data of nearly 140,000 respondents across 16 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in combination with georeferenced data on World Bank-sponsored ODA projects and historical weather statistics. A coarsened exact matching analysis reveals little benefit of development aid on child nutritional status under normal meteorological conditions. However, among children exposed to drought, prior aid allocation is associated with significantly reduced weight loss. While the merit of ODA in facilitating long-term growth remains debated, this study finds consistent indication that multilateral development aid improves recipient communities’ capacity to cope with future drought. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.

Climate seasonality is a predominant constraint on the lifecycles of species in alpine and polar biomes. Assessing the response of these species to climate change thus requires taking into account seasonal constraints on populations. However, interactions between seasonality, weather fluctuations, and population parameters remain poorly explored as they require long‐term studies with high sampling frequency. This study investigated the influence of environmental covariates on the demography of a corvid species, the alpine chough Pyrrhocorax graculus, in the highly seasonal environment of the Mont Blanc region. In two steps, we estimated: (1) the seasonal survival of categories of individuals based on their age, sex, etc., (2) the effect of environmental covariates on seasonal survival. We hypothesized that the cold season—and more specifically, the end of the cold season (spring)—would be a critical period for individuals, and we expected that weather and individual covariates would influence survival variation during critical periods. We found that while spring was a critical season for adult female survival, it was not for males. This is likely because females are dominated by males at feeding sites during snowy seasons (winter and spring), and additionally must invest energy in egg production. When conditions were not favorable, which seemed to happen when the cold season was warmer than usual, females probably reached their physiological limits. Surprisingly, adult survival was higher at the beginning of the cold season than in summer, which may result from adaptation to harsh weather in alpine and polar vertebrates. This hypothesis could be confirmed by testing it with larger sets of populations. This first seasonal analysis of individual survival over the full life cycle in a sedentary alpine bird shows that including seasonality in demographic investigations is crucial to better understand the potential impacts of climate change on cold ecosystems., We tested whether seasonality influence survival in a long‐lived alpine bird, before covariate analysis in a multi‐event framework. We highlight a critical survival period for adult females during the transition between spring (the end of cold season) and summer. Low female survival was associated to warm winter and spring temperatures, we discuss the sensitivity of the alpine ecosystem to spring condition from a new point of view and the importance of accounting for seasonality in these highly seasonal environments.

Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict. Climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries, and intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict, although other drivers are substantially more influential and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain uncertain.

The accurate quantification of uncertainties in regional sea-level projections is essential for guiding policy makers. As climate models do not currently simulate total sea level, these uncertainties must be quantified through summation of uncertainties in individual sea-level components. This summation depends on the correlation between the components, which has previously been prescribed or derived from each individual component's dependence on global mean surface temperature. In this study, we quantify, for the first time, regional correlations between sea-level components based on regional climate change projections. We compute regional sea-level projections consistent with climate projections from an ensemble of 14 Earth System Models. From the multi-model spread, we estimate the uncertainty in the regional climate's response to greenhouse forcing. To quantify the total uncertainty, we add the uncertainty in the response of sea-level components to this regional climate change. This approach reveals how regional climate processes impose correlations between sea-level components, affecting the total uncertainty. One example is an anti-correlation between North Atlantic sterodynamic change and Antarctic dynamic mass loss, suggesting a teleconnection established by the large-scale ocean circulation. We find that prescribed correlations, applied in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, lead to a global overestimation in the uncertainty in regional sea-level projections on the order of 20%. Regionally, this overestimation exceeds 100%. We conclude that accurate uncertainty estimates of regional sea-level change must be based on projections of regional climate change and cannot be derived from global indicators such as global mean surface temperature. publishedVersion

As temperatures rise, motile species start to redistribute to more suitable areas, potentially affecting the persistence of several resident species and altering biodiversity and ecosystem functions. In the Barents Sea, a hotspot for global warming, marine fish from boreal regions have been increasingly found in the more exclusive Arctic region. Here, we show that this shift in species distribution is increasing species richness and evenness, and even more so, the functional diversity of the Arctic. Higher diversity is often interpreted as being positive for ecosystem health and is a target for conservation. However, the increasing trend observed here may be transitory as the traits involved threaten Arctic species via predation and competition. If the pressure from global warming continues to rise, the ensuing loss of Arctic species will result in a reduction in functional diversity.

Open Access (OA) describes the free, unrestricted access to and re-use of research articles. Recently, a new wave of interest, debate, and practice surrounding OA publishing has emerged. In this paper, we provide a simple overview of the trends in OA practice in the broad field of geochemistry. Characteristics of the approach such as whether or not an article processing charge (APC) exists, what embargo periods or restrictions on self-archiving’ policies are in place, and whether or not the sharing of preprints is permitted are described. The majority of journals have self-archiving policies that allow authors to share their peer reviewed work via green OA without charge. There is no clear relationship between journal impact and APC. The journals with the highest APC are typically those of the major commercial publishers, rather than the geochemistry community themselves. The rise in OA publishing has potential impacts on the profiles of researchers and tends to devolve costs from organizations to individuals. Until the geochemistry community makes the decision to move away from journal-based evaluation criteria, it is likely that such high costs will continue to impose financial inequities upon research community. However, geochemists could more widely choose legal self-archiving as an equitable and sustainable way to disseminate their research., Open access, Article processing charge, Green route, Repository; Environmental geochemistry; Earth sciences; Geochemistry; Fossil geochemistry; Biogeochemistry; Catchment geochemistry; Isotope geochemistry; Petroleum geochemistry; Trace element geochemistry; Hydrochemistry, Information science, Biogeoscience.

We investigated if greenness and air pollution exposure in parents&rsquo, childhood affect offspring asthma and hay fever, and if effects were mediated through parental asthma, pregnancy greenness/pollution exposure, and offspring exposure. We analysed 1106 parents with 1949 offspring (mean age 35 and 6) from the Respiratory Health in Northern Europe, Spain and Australia (RHINESSA) generation study. Mean particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3) (&micro, g/m3) and greenness (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) were calculated for parents 0&ndash, 18 years old and offspring 0&ndash, 10 years old, and were categorised in tertiles. We performed logistic regression and mediation analyses for two-pollutant models (clustered by family and centre, stratified by parental lines, and adjusted for grandparental asthma and education). Maternal medium PM2.5 and PM10 exposure was associated with higher offspring asthma risk (odds ratio (OR) 2.23, 95%CI 1.32&ndash, 3.78, OR 2.27, 95%CI 1.36&ndash, 3.80), and paternal high BC exposure with lower asthma risk (OR 0.31, 95%CI 0.11&ndash, 0.87). Hay fever risk increased for offspring of fathers with medium O3 exposure (OR 4.15, 95%CI 1.28&ndash, 13.50) and mothers with high PM10 exposure (OR 2.66, 95%CI 1.19&ndash, 5.91). The effect of maternal PM10 exposure on offspring asthma was direct, while for hay fever, it was mediated through exposures in pregnancy and offspring&rsquo, s own exposures. Paternal O3 exposure had a direct effect on offspring hay fever. To conclude, parental exposure to air pollution appears to influence the risk of asthma and allergies in future offspring.

IntroductionScientists from a wide variety of fields of knowledge are increasingly interested in climate change issues. The importance given to the phenomenon is explained by the uncertainties surrounding it and its consequences not yet fully known. However, there is wide agreement that human activities are modifying the Earth’s climate beyond the natural cyclical changes and that these changes impact human health. This scoping review aimed to understand how research on the links between climate change and human health in urban areas is conducted and how this research is approached holistically or not.Methods and analysisThis scoping review is mainly guided by the Arskey and O’Malley scoping review framework. A broad range of databases will be used, including PubMed, ScienceDirect, Web of Science Core Collection, GreenFILE and Information Science & Technology Abstracts. Predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria will be used, with a focus on climate change and human health outcome studies published between January 1990 and July 2019. An interdisciplinary team has formulated search strategies and the reviewers will independently screen eligible studies for final study selection. We will apply a thematic analysis to evaluate and categorise the study findings. We expect to map the research according to the scientific research methods, the scientific fields and the determinants of health studied. Along these lines, we will be able to understand how holistic the research is.Ethics and disseminationNo primary data will be collected since all data presented in this review are based on published articles and publicly available documents. Therefore, ethics committee approval is not a requirement. The findings will be disseminated through publication in a peer-reviewed journal, presentations at conferences relevant to the field of this research, as well as presentations to relevant stakeholders.

International audience; In climate change ecology, simplistic research approaches may yield unrealistically simplistic answers to often more complicated problems. In particular, the complexity of vegetation responses to global climate change begs a better understanding of the impacts of concomitant changes in several climatic drivers, how these impacts vary across different climatic contexts, and of the demographic processes underlying population changes. Using a replicated, factorial, whole‐community transplant experiment, we investigated regional variation in demographic responses of plant populations to increased temperature and/or precipitation. Across four perennial forb species and 12 sites, we found strong responses to both temperature and precipitation change. Changes in population growth rates were mainly due to changes in survival and clonality. In three of the four study species, the combined increase in temperature and precipitation reflected nonadditive, antagonistic interactions of the single climatic changes for population growth rate and survival, while the interactions were additive and synergistic for clonality. This disparity affects the persistence of genotypes, but also suggests that the mechanisms behind the responses of the vital rates differ. In addition, survival effects varied systematically with climatic context, with wetter and warmer + wetter transplants showing less positive or more negative responses at warmer sites. The detailed demographic approach yields important mechanistic insights into how concomitant changes in temperature and precipitation affect plants, which makes our results generalizable beyond the four study species. Our comprehensive study design illustrates the power of replicated field experiments in disentangling the complex relationships and patterns that govern climate change impacts across real‐world species and landscapes.

The Sahel is prone to climate stressors such as droughts, winds and floods. This study employs a systematic review approach to track the frequency with which these stressors are reported in the scientific peer reviewed literature, examining publishing trends to identify which stressors are most reported, documenting the spatial distribution of these stressors from a country and regional perspective, and assessing the role played by climatic and non-climatic drivers in causing the stressors. A total of (n = 388) reports of stressors were documented in (n = 164) peer reviewed articles. From a country perspective, Southern Niger records the highest number of reports on all three stressors (15.97%), followed by Ethiopia (11.85%) and Senegal (10.56%). Regionally, West African Sahel recorded the highest number of reports on all stressors (49.97%) followed by East African Sahel (29.89%) and Central African Sahel (12.11%) respectively. Droughts are observed to be the most frequently reported stressor (n = 219), followed by floods (n = 123) and winds (n = 46). The decade 1975–1985 recorded the highest reports of stressors (n = 207), while the decade 1997–2007 recorded (n = 80) and the decade 1986–1996 recorded (n = 52). While climatic drivers are dominant (52%), there is however an increasing attribution of the drivers of the stressors to non-climatic drivers (47%). The main weakness of this study is that it uses peer reviewed papers dwelling on climate stressors as a proxy for climate stressors in the Sahel and a lot more studies could be hiding in non-peer reviewed studies, underscoring that this work provides a general and baseline overview of the climate stressors in the region.

Background: Pregnant women and children are especially vulnerable to exposures to food contaminants, and a balanced diet during these periods is critical for optimal nutritional status. Objectives: Our objective was to study the association between diet and measured blood and urinary levels of environmental contaminants in mother-child pairs from six European birth cohorts (n = 818 mothers and 1,288 children). Methods: We assessed the consumption of seven food groups and the blood levels of organochlorine pesticides, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), and heavy metals and urinary levels of phthalate metabolites, phenolic compounds, and organophosphate pesticide (OP) metabolites. Organic food consumption during childhood was also studied. We applied multivariable linear regressions and targeted maximum likelihood based estimation (TMLE). Results: Maternal high (≥ 4times/week) versus low (< 2times/week) fish consumption was associated with 15% higher PCBs [geometric mean (GM) ratio = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.29], 42% higher perfluoroundecanoate (PFUnDA) (GMratio = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.20, 1.68), 89% higher mercury (Hg) (GMratio = 1.89; 95% CI: 1.47, 2.41) and a 487% increase in arsenic (As) (GMratio = 4.87; 95% CI: 2.57, 9.23) levels. In children, high (≥ 3times/week) versus low (< 1.5times/week) fish consumption was associated with 23% higher perfluorononanoate (PFNA) (GMratio = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.40), 36% higher PFUnDA (GMratio = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.64), 37% higher perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) (GMratio = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.22, 1.54), and >200% higher Hg and As [GMratio = 3.87 (95% CI: 1.91, 4.31) and GMratio = 2.68 (95% CI: 2.23, 3.21)] concentrations. Using TMLE analysis, we estimated that fish consumption within the recommended 2-3 times/week resulted in lower PFAS, Hg, and As compared with higher consumption. Fruit consumption was positively associated with OP metabolites. Organic food consumption was negatively associated with OP metabolites. Discussion: Fish consumption is related to higher PFAS, Hg, and As exposures. In addition, fruit consumption is a source of exposure to OPs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5324. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 308,333, the Human Early Life Exposome (HELIX) project. The Environment and Childhood (INMA) Sabadell cohort and biomarker measurements were funded by grants from Instituto de Salud Carlos III [Red INMA G03/176; CB06/02/0041; PI041436; PI081151 including Federación Española de Enfermedades Raras (FEDER) funds; PI12/01,890 including FEDER funds; CP13/00,054 including FEDER funds], CIBERESP, Generalitat de Catalunya-Consell Interdepartamental de Recerca i Innovació Tecnològica (CIRIT) 1999SGR 00,241, Generalitat de Catalunya-Agència de Gestió d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca (AGAUR) (2009 SGR 501, 2014 SGR 822), Fundació La marató de TV3 (090,430), Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (SAF2012-32,991 including FEDER funds). The Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study is supported by the Norwegian Ministry of Health and Care Services and the Ministry of Education and Research, National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NIH/NINDS; grants UO1 NS 047,537-01 and UO1 NS 047,537-06A1). The Rhea cohort was financially supported by European projects [EU FP6-2003-Food-3-NewGeneris, EU FP6 STREP Hiwate, EU FP7 ENV.2007.1.2.2.2. (project no. 211,250 Escape), EU FP7-2008-ENV-1.2.1.4 Envirogenomarkers, EU FP7-HEALTH-2009-single stage CHICOS, EU FP7 ENV.2008.1.2.1.6. (proposal no. 226,285 ENRIECO), EU- FP7-HEALTH-2012 (proposal no. 308,333 HELIX)] and by the Greek Ministry of Health (Program of Prevention of Obesity and Neurodevelopmental Disorders in Preschool Children, in Heraklion District, Crete, Greece: 2011–2014; “Rhea Plus”: Primary Prevention Program of Environmental Risk Factors for Reproductive Health, and Child Health: 2012–15). The Lithuanian Kaunas Cohort (KANC) supported by the Lithuanian Agency for Science Innovation and Technology (No. 31V-77). M.C. received funding from Instituto de Salud Carlos III (Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness) (MS16/00,128). E.P. and A.L.B. received funding from the Norwegian Research Council (Project No. 268,465). R.R.C.M. and J.W. were supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaborations for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) Yorkshire and Humber (IS-CLA-0113-10,020; http://www.clahrc-yh.nihr.ac.uk). L.C. received funding from the NIH (P30ES007048) and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS R21ES02890).

Background In cancer care, a GP's work is rarely defined clearly. Our aim was to assess GPs' work with cancer patients in France and in Norway, where the roles of the GP and the organization of the system are rather different. Findings A questionnaire with 40 closed-ended questions about GP involvement in diagnosis, treatment, follow-up and terminal care was constructed and mailed to samples of GPs. The patients had seen the doctor at least once over the past year. In France 1679 and in Norway 386 individual patient questionnaires were completed. GPs have a major role in the diagnosis of cancer, and this role varies according to cancer type. The GPs participated actively in different phases of follow-up after cancer treatment. Low response rates do not allow direct comparison between countries, but higher PSA screening rates in France seem to increase the percentage of patients diagnosed after screening rather than after a clinical suspicion. Interaction between GPs and specialists during cancer treatment and follow-up was important in both countries. Conclusion Both in France and in Norway GPs participate actively in cancer care. Early clinical diagnosis is a challenge. More research is needed about how GPs can improve their early diagnostic work. Organisational issues may influence cancer responsibilities for the GP, and national health systems should be challenged to look at possible new roles for GPs in cancer care. Medical training, both pre- and post-graduate, should prepare doctors for collaboration between primary and secondary care, particularly important in cancer care.

The oceans play a key role in global issues such as climate change, food security, and human health. Given their vast dimensions and internal complexity, efficient monitoring and predicting of the planet’s ocean must be a collaborative effort of both regional and global scale. A first and foremost requirement for such collaborative ocean observing is the need to follow well-defined and reproducible methods across activities: from strategies for structuring observing systems, sensor deployment and usage, and the generation of data and information products, to ethical and governance aspects when executing ocean observing. To meet the urgent, planet-wide challenges we face, methods across all aspects of ocean observing should be broadly adopted by the ocean community and, where appropriate, should evolve into “Ocean Best Practices.” While many groups have created best practices, they are scattered across the Web or buried in local repositories and many have yet to be digitized. To reduce this fragmentation, we introduce a new open access, permanent, digital repository of best practices documentation (oceanbestpractices.org) that is part of the Ocean Best Practices System (OBPS). The new OBPS provides an opportunity space for the centralized and coordinated improvement of ocean observing methods. The OBPS repository employs user-friendly software to significantly improve discovery and access to methods. The software includes advanced semantic technologies for search capabilities to enhance repository operations. In addition to the repository, the OBPS also includes a peer reviewed journal research topic, a forum for community discussion and a training activity for use of best practices. Together, these components serve to realize a core objective of the OBPS, which is to enable the ocean community to create superior methods for every activity in ocean observing from research to operations to applications that are agreed upon and broadly adopted across communities. Using selected ocean observing examples, we show how the OBPS supports this objective. This paper lays out a future vision of ocean best practices and how OBPS will contribute to improving ocean observing in the decade to come.

Studying nomadic animal movement across species and ecosystems is essential for better understanding variability in nomadism. In arid environments, unpredictable changes in water and forage resources are known drivers of nomadic movements. Water resources vary temporally but are often spatially stationary, whereas foraging resources are often both temporally and spatially variable. These differences may lead to different types of nomadic movements: forage- vs. water-driven nomadism. Our study investigates these two different types of nomadism in relation to resource gradients from mesic steppe to xeric desert environments in Mongolia’s Gobi-Steppe Ecosystem. We hypothesized that in the desert, where water is a key resource, animals are more water-dependent and may show water-driven nomadism with frequent revisits to spatially fixed resources, while in the steppe, animals are less water-dependent and may show forage-driven nomadism, tracking high-quality foraging patches with infrequent revisits to previously used resources. We utilized GPS movement data from 40 individuals of four ungulate species (Mongolian gazelle, goitered gazelle, saiga antelope, and Asiatic wild ass) in the Gobi-Steppe Ecosystem. We calculated displacement distances and recursion metrics and subsequently performed a principal component analysis to quantify the variation in movement patterns. The satellite-derived vegetation greenness served as a proxy for the resource gradient and was associated with variation in movement behaviors described by the first principal component, demonstrating that the variability in movements was closely related to the resource gradient from mesic to xeric habitats.We showed that ungulates in the resource-rich steppe tended to move long distances with few revisits (forage-driven nomadism), while ungulates in the resource-poor desert tended to move shorter distances with more revisits (water-driven nomadism). Our results suggest that xeric and mesic habitats promote different types of nomadic strategies. These results have important implications for conservation strategies: Forage-driven nomads primarily require a high degree of landscape-level permeability, and water-driven nomads additionally require the protection of ephemeral water bodies and actions to maintain the functional connectivity between them. animal movement; arid; forage; nomadism; recursion; resource; ungulate; water Variability in nomadism: environmental gradients modulate the movement behaviors of dryland ungulates

Climate change yields both challenges and opportunities. In both cases, costly adaptations and transformations are necessary and desirable, and these must be based on realistic and relevant climate information. However, it is often difficult for climate scientists to communicate this information to decision-makers and stakeholders, and it can be equally difficult for such actors to interpret and put the information to use. In this essay, we discuss experiences and present recommendations for scientists producing climate services. The basis is our work in several climate service projects. One of them aimed to provide local-scale climate data for municipalities in western Norway and to explore how the data were interpreted and implemented. The project was first based solely on climate science expertise, and the participants did not have sufficient competence on coproduction and knowledge about the regulatory and political landscape in which municipalities operate. Initially, we also subscribed to an outdated idea of climate services, where knowledge providers (climate scientists) “deliver” their information to knowledge users (e.g., municipal planners). Increasingly, as stressed in the literature on coproduction of knowledge, we learned that climate service should be an iterative process where actionable information is coproduced through two-way dialogue. On the basis of these and other lessons learned the hard way, we provide a set of concrete recommendations on how to embed the idea of coproduction from the preproposal stage to beyond the end of climate service projects.

Background: The exposome is defined as the totality of environmental exposures from conception onwards. It calls for providing a holistic view of environmental exposures and their effects on human health by evaluating multiple environmental exposures simultaneously during critical periods of life. Objective: We evaluated the association of the urban exposome with birth weight. Methods: We estimated exposure to the urban exposome, including the built environment, air pollution, road traffic noise, meteorology, natural space, and road traffic (corresponding to 24 environmental indicators and 60 exposures) for nearly 32,000 pregnant women from six European birth cohorts. To evaluate associations with either continuous birth weight or term low birth weight (TLBW) risk, we primarily relied on the Deletion-Substitution-Addition (DSA) algorithm, which is an extension of the stepwise variable selection method. Second, we used an exposure-by-exposure exposome-wide association studies (ExWAS) method accounting for multiple hypotheses testing to report associations not adjusted for coexposures. Results: The most consistent statistically significant associations were observed between increasing green space exposure estimated as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and increased birth weight and decreased TLBW risk. Furthermore, we observed statistically significant associations among presence of public bus line, land use Shannon's Evenness Index, and traffic density and birth weight in our DSA analysis. Conclusion: This investigation is the first large urban exposome study of birth weight that tests many environmental urban exposures. It confirmed previously reported associations for NDVI and generated new hypotheses for a number of built-environment exposures. The study has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under Grant Agreement No. 308333—the HELIX project—for data collection and analyses. The HELIX program built on six existing cohorts that received previous funding, including the major cohorts listed here. INMA data collections were supported by grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, CIBERESP, the Conselleria de Sanitat, Generalitat Valenciana, Department of Health of the Basque Government; the Provincial Government of Gipuzkoa, and the Generalitat de Catalunya-CIRIT. KANC was funded by the grant of the Lithuanian Agency for Science Innovation and Technology (6-04-2014_31V-66). MoBa (Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study) is supported by the Norwegian Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Education and Research, NIH/NIEHS (Contract No. N01-ES-75558), and the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS; Contract No. N01-ES-75558), and National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (Grant No. 1 UO1 NS 047537-01 and Grant No. 2 UO1 NS 047537-06A1). The Rhea project was financially supported by European projects (EU FP6–2003-Food-3-NewGeneris, EU FP6.STREP Hiwate, EU FP7 ENV.2007·1.2.2.2, Project No. 211250 Escape, EU FP7–2008-ENV-1·2.1·4 Envirogenomarkers, EU FP7-HEALTH-2009-single stage CHICOS, EU FP7 ENV.2008.1.2.1.6, Proposal No. 226285 ENRIECO, EUFP7-HEALTH-2012 Proposal No. 308333 HELIX, FP7 European Union Project No. 264357 MeDALL), and the Greek Ministry of Health (Program of Prevention of Obesity and Neurodevelopmental Disorders in Preschool Children, in Heraklion district, Crete, Greece: 2011–2014; “Rhea Plus”: Primary Prevention Program of Environmental Risk Factors for Reproductive Health, and Child Health: 2012–15). L.C. received additional funding from the Southern California Environmental Health Sciences Center (Grant No. P30ES007048) funded by NIEHS. We acknowledge the support of the program for international scientific collaborations of Région Rhône-Alpes-Auvergne.

Extreme climate events often cause population crashes but are difficult to account for in population-dynamic studies. Especially in long-lived animals, density dependence and demography may induce lagged impacts of perturbations on population growth. In Arctic ungulates, extreme rain-on-snow and ice-locked pastures have led to severe population crashes, indicating that increasingly frequent rain-on-snow events could destabilize populations. Here, using empirically parameterized, stochastic population models for High-Arctic wild reindeer, we show that more frequent rain-on-snow events actually reduce extinction risk and stabilize population dynamics due to interactions with age structure and density dependence. Extreme rain-on-snow events mainly suppress vital rates of vulnerable ages at high population densities, resulting in a crash and a new population state with resilient ages and reduced population sensitivity to subsequent icy winters. Thus, observed responses to single extreme events are poor predictors of population dynamics and persistence because internal density-dependent feedbacks act as a buffer against more frequent events., Extreme climate events can cause population crashes and may threaten population persistence. Here, the authors model reindeer population dynamics and find that more frequent extremely icy winters can actually reduce extinction risk due to density dependence and a demographic shift to resilient ages.

The protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii is a zoonotic parasite that can be transmitted from animals to humans. Felids, including domestic cats, are definitive hosts that can shed oocysts with their feces. In addition to infections that occur by accidental oral uptake of food or water contaminated with oocysts, it is assumed that a large proportion of affected humans may have become infected by consuming meat or other animal products that contained infective parasitic stages of T. gondii. Since farm animals represent a direct source of infection for humans, but also a possible reservoir for the parasite, it is important to control T. gondii infections in livestock. Moreover, T. gondii may also be pathogenic to livestock where it could be responsible for considerable economic losses in some regions and particular farming systems, e.g. in areas where the small ruminant industry is relevant. This review aims to summarize actual knowledge on the prevalence and effects of infections with T. gondii in the most important livestock species and on the effects of toxoplasmosis on livestock. It also provides an overview on potential risk factors favoring infections of livestock with T. gondii. Knowledge on potential risk factors is prerequisite to implement effective biosecurity measures on farms to prevent T. gondii infections. Risk factors identified by many studies are cat-related, but also those associated with a potential contamination of fodder or water, and with access to a potentially contaminated environment. Published information on the costs T. gondii infections cause in livestock production, is scarce. The most recent peer reviewed reports from Great Britain and Uruguay suggest annual cost of about 5–15 million US $ per country. Since these estimates are outdated, future studies are needed to estimate the present costs due to toxoplasmosis in livestock. Further, the fact that T. gondii infections in livestock may affect human health needs to be considered and the respective costs should also be estimated, but this is beyond the scope of this article., Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image, Highlights • Brief overview on T. gondii prevalence in livestock • Natural and experimental T. gondii infections • Risk factors for T. gondii infection of livestock • Economic impact of toxoplasmosis in livestock

Political action can reduce introductions of diseases caused by invasive forest pathogens (IPs) and public support is important for effective prevention. The public’s awareness of IP problems and the acceptability of policies aiming to combat these pathogens were surveyed in nine European countries ( N = 3469). Although awareness of specific diseases (e.g., ash dieback) varied, problem awareness and policy acceptability were similar across countries. The public was positive towards policies for informational measures and stricter standards for plant production, but less positive towards restricting public access to protected areas. Multilevel models, including individual and country level variables, revealed that media exposure was positively associated with awareness of IP problems, and strengthened the link between problem awareness and policy acceptability. Results suggest that learning about IPs through the media and recognizing the associated problems increase policy acceptability. Overall, the study elaborates on the anthropogenic dimension of diseases caused by IPs. Funding for this study was obtained through the European BiodivERsA project ‘‘RESIPATH: Responses of European Forests and Society to Invasive Pathogens’’ co-financed by national funds. In Portugal, this research was co-funded by the Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation Ref. BIODIVERSA/0002/2012.

Stakeholders with shared interests in fish conservation often disagree about which specific conservation measures are appropriate, leading to conflicts with sometimes long‐lasting and disruptive social and political effects. Managers are challenged to balance opposing stakeholder preferences with their own mandates in a charged environment. Using the 2014 termination of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stocking in Wales as a case, we conducted a critical discourse analysis of interview data, online print media, social media and policy documents to examine conflict and its mechanisms over time. The data sources represented four discourse planes: the social, media, social media and policy planes. We report five key findings: The conflict around salmon stocking took place in three stages, beginning with a negotiated, manifest conflict that escalated during the 2014 policy process that terminated stocking, creating a persistent spin‐off conflict. The stocking debate was shaped by two discourse coalitions promoting either pro‐ or anti‐hatchery arguments, and an emerging third coalition advocating for compromise. The coalitions disagreed on the effectiveness of stocking, the status of the salmon stock and had different management goals, revealing that the pro‐ or anti‐stocking debate was caused by complex, intertwined and partly opposing beliefs and values. Different elements of the discourses emerged on different planes and arguments were mobile across the planes over time, explaining how selected key arguments were able to persist, gain dominance, re‐appear over time, thus dynamically fuelling and (re)shaping the conflict. The policy change decision to terminate stocking in Wales institutionalized anti‐stocking discourses. It forced all stakeholder groups to acquiesce to one perspective of stocking, creating a win‐lose situation for some stakeholders. The handling and result of the policy change led to the alienation of some stakeholder groups. Ecological management goals were achieved in the short term, but the acrimonious and yet‐unsettled social side effects affected the long‐term relationships and may negatively impact future conservation issues in the area. We conclude that transdisciplinary active management designed for joint learning about stocking trade‐offs may be a suitable alternative to the ‘either‐or' outcomes observed in Wales that fostered sustained stakeholder conflicts instead of joint production of knowledge and understanding. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. An abridged and annotated audio version of this article can be found here.

Abstract The health effects of acute exposure to temperature extremes are established; those of long-term exposure only recently received attention. We performed a systematic review to assess the associations of long-term (>3 months) exposure to higher or lower temperature on total and cardiopulmonary mortality and morbidity, screening 3455 studies and selecting 34. The studies were classified in those observing associations within a population over years with changing annual temperature indices and those comparing areas with a different climate. We also assessed the risk of bias, adapting appropriately an instrument developed by the World Health Organization for air pollution. Studies reported that annual temperature indices for extremes and variability were associated with annual increases in mortality, indicating that effects of temperature extremes cannot be attributed only to short-term mortality displacement. Studies on cardiovascular mortality indicated stronger associations with cold rather than hot temperature, whilst those on respiratory outcomes reported effects of both heat and cold but were few and used diverse health outcomes. Interactions with air pollution were not generally assessed. The few studies investigating effect modification showed stronger effects among the elderly and those socially deprived. Comparisons of health outcome prevalence between areas reported lower blood pressure and a tendency for higher obesity in populations living in warmer climates. Our review indicated interesting associations between long-term exposure to unusual temperature levels in specific areas and differences in health outcomes and cardiovascular risk factors between geographical locations with different climate, but the number of studies by design and health outcome was small. Risk of bias was identified because of the use of crude exposure assessment and inadequate adjustment for confounding. More and better designed studies, including the investigation of effect modifiers, are needed.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) provide direct benefits to people who live in areas where these approaches are present. The degree of direct benefits (thermal comfort, reduced flood risk, and mental health) varies across temporal and spatial scales, and it can be modelled and quantified. Less clear are the indirect benefits related to opportunities to learn about the environment and its influence on personal behaviour and action. The present study, based on survey data from 1955 participants across 17 cities worldwide, addressed whether participation in NbS through two types of interactions (a passive learning experience about NbS and a more active experience based on Citizen Science) stimulates motivation and willingness to be more environmentally sustainable. Over 75% of participants improved their understanding of environmental sustainability and were highly motivated and more confident in their ability to improve sustainability in their local environment/nature. Similar percentage improvements arose from both types of activity across all cities. Those NbS that had elements of both blue and green infrastructure rated higher than those that had predominantly green NbS. Interestingly, a large percentage of the participants did not live near the NbS that were the focus of these activities. This indicated that expected spatial limitations between benefit and recipient may be overcome when dedicated programmes involve people in learning or monitoring NbS. Therefore, opportunities have arisen to expand inclusion from the immediately local to the larger community through participation and Citizen Science, with potential benefits to social cohesion and urban sustainability.

Experience suggests that current nuclear accident response planning in European countries mostly has a technical focus, with less attention paid to social, psychological and ethical issues. Information provided tends to be directed towards decisions made by experts, rather than for the support of affected populations. The SHAMISEN (Nuclear Emergency Situations - Improvement of Medical And Health Surveillance) consortium, composed of close to 50 experts from 10 countries, performed a critical review of current recommendations and experiences regarding dose assessment and reconstruction, evacuation decisions, long-term health surveillance programmes and epidemiological studies. The review included case studies and lessons drawn from the living conditions and health status of populations affected by the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents, taking an integrative approach to health and well-being. Based on this work, SHAMISEN developed a series of comprehensive recommendations aimed at improving the preparedness, response, long-term surveillance and living conditions of populations affected by past or future radiation accidents, in a manner responding to their needs, while minimising unnecessary anxiety. The SHAMISEN project was supported by the EURATOM (European Atomic Energy Community) programme of the European Commission in the framework of the OPERRA (Open Project for the European Radiation Research Area) project (FP7 grant agreement No. 604984). ISGlobal acknowledges support from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019-2023” Program (CEX2018-000806-S), and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Programme (http://cerca.cat/en/). NMBU acknowledges the support of the Research Council of Norway, Grant No. 263856.

This review analyses global or near-global estimates of population exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and related hazards, followed by critically examining subsequent estimates of population migration due to this exposure. Our review identified 33 publications that provide global or near-global estimates of population exposure to SLR and associated hazards. They fall into three main categories of exposure, based on definitions in the publications: (i) the population impacted by specified levels of SLR; (ii) the number of people living in floodplains that are subject to coastal flood events with a specific return period; and (iii) the population living in low-elevation coastal zones. Twenty of these 33 publications discuss connections between population migration and SLR. In our analysis of the exposure and migration data, we consider datasets, analytical methods, and the challenges of estimating exposure to SLR followed by potential human migration. We underscore the complex connections among SLR, exposure to its impacts, and migration. Human mobility to and from coastal areas is shaped by diverse socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, and political factors; there may be ‘trapped’ populations as well as those who prefer not to move for social, cultural, and political reasons; and migration can be delayed or forestalled through other adaptive measures. While global estimates of exposed and potentially migrating populations highlight the significant threats of SLR for populations living in low-lying areas at or near coastlines, further research is needed to understand the interactions among localised SLR and related hazards, social and political contexts, adaptation possibilities, and potential migration and (im)mobility decision-making.

© Author(s) 2018. Editors of several journals in the field of hydrology met during the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) in Vienna in April 2017. This event was a follow-up of similar meetings held in 2013 and 2015. These meetings enable the group of editors to review the current status of the journals and the publication process, and to share thoughts on future strategies. Journals were represented at the 2017 meeting by their editors, as shown in the list of authors. The main points on invigorating hydrological research through journal publications are communicated in this joint editorial published in the above journals. ispartof: HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES vol:22 issue:11 pages:5735-5739 status: published

Ongoing global warming is now affecting migratory cycles in a large variety of taxa in seasonally variable environments. Disruption of migratory systems can cause population decline and affect ecosystem function across the globe. It is therefore urgent to understand the drivers of migration and how the different fitness limitations of the sexes affect migration, but studies seldom considered the full annual cycle. We analysed the annual migration cycle of 237 red deer (Cervus elaphus) in Norway and investigate how different seasonal limitations affected the variation in a suite of migration characteristics. We found fundamental differences in migration phenology between seasons, and migratory traits were much more variable in males. Spring migratory movements were characterized by longer distance roamed, lower speed, lasted longer, more frequent use of stopovers, timing was more synchronized and coincided with onset of plant growth, and with higher daily activity levels. Timing of autumn migration was more variable and not closely related to cease of plant growth. Our study emphasizes the benefits of studying the full annual cycle to gain further insight into the migration process, and how understanding the limitations of the full annual migration process of both sexes is critical for conservation purposes.

Background: The urban exposome is the set of environmental factors that are experienced in the outdoor urban environment and that may influence child development. Objective: The authors’ goal was to describe the urban exposome among European pregnant women and understand its socioeconomic determinants. Methods: Using geographic information systems, remote sensing and spatio-temporal modeling we estimated exposure during pregnancy to 28 environmental indicators in almost 30,000 women from six population-based birth cohorts, in nine urban areas from across Europe. Exposures included meteorological factors, air pollutants, traffic noise, traffic indicators, natural space, the built environment, public transport, facilities, and walkability. Socioeconomic position (SEP), assessed at both the area and individual level, was related to the exposome through an exposome-wide association study and principal component (PC) analysis. Results: Mean±standard deviation (SD) NO2 levels ranged from 13.6±5.1 μg/m3 (in Heraklion, Crete) to 43.2±11 μg/m3 (in Sabadell, Spain), mean±SD walkability score ranged from 0.22±0.04 (Kaunas, Lithuania) to 0.32±0.07 (Valencia, Spain) and mean±SD Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ranged from 0.21±0.05 in Heraklion to 0.51±0.1 in Oslo, Norway. Four PCs explained more than half of variation in the urban exposome. There was considerable heterogeneity in social patterning of the urban exposome across cities. For example, high-SEP (based on family education) women lived in greener, less noisy, and less polluted areas in Bradford, UK (0.39 higher PC1 score, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.31, 0.47), but the reverse was observed in Oslo (−0.57 PC1 score, 95% CI: −0.73, −0.41). For most cities, effects were stronger when SEP was assessed at the area level: In Bradford, women living in high SEP areas had a 1.34 higher average PC1 score (95% CI: 1.21, 1.48). Conclusions: The urban exposome showed considerable variability across Europe. Pregnant women of low SEP were exposed to higher levels of environmental hazards in some cities, but not others, which may contribute to inequities in child health and development. The research leading to these results received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 308333 – the HELIX project.

In recent years, the focus of quantitative climate-conflict research has shifted from studying civil wars to studying different types of conflicts, particularly non-state and communal conflicts, based on the argument that these local-level conflicts are a more likely consequence of climate variability than civil war. However, the findings from previous research do not paint a consistent picture of the relationship between climate and communal conflict. We posit that a research design treating the climate variable as randomized is a better and more convincing strategy for estimating the relationship between climate variability and communal conflict compared to the conventional control method to account for confounders. In this paper, we ask two questions: (1) what type of research design allows us to treat climate variability as randomized and (2) what can we say about the relationship between climate variability and communal violence using this new design? To answer these questions, we analyze six large subnational areas, at a monthly time scale, and calculate the standardized precipitation index for each area for each month. We find that both short, unusually dry intervals and long, unusually wet intervals increase the likelihood of a communal conflict event.

We used a comparative approach investigating commercially fished species with contrasting life histories and trophic positions in an Arcto-boreal system, the Barents Sea. Our objective was to address the ecological consequences of harvesting on stock properties (stochastic growth rate; a property related to intrinsic growth rate) in relation to different external conditions (fishing pressure and climate). We used age-structured population matrices to calculate the transient elasticity of population growth with respect to recruitment (how much population growth depends on recruitment) over time. Using a generalized additive model (GAM) analysis, we found that the transient elasticity of population growth to recruitment overall depends mostly on age structure (which in turn is affected by fishing) but also on climate (temperature change or winter North Atlantic Oscillation). Our results indicate that under warmer conditions, population growth of high latitude stocks becomes increasingly dependent on recruitment, which makes the stocks more difficult to manage. In general, there was no effect of ongoing fishing pressure on elasticity after age structure had been taken into account, supporting the view that long-term fishing pressure affects the susceptibility of the population to climate indirectly, by changing the age structure of the stock. However, for most of the stocks we have studied here, populations have low elasticity to recruitment due to their life history, meaning that the health of the stock mainly depends on survival after the recruitment stage; i.e. fisheries management is more important than climate.

Purpose of Review The aim of this review is to understand the state of the art of research related to climate change and collectively organized violence from a broad political science perspective. Recent Findings An increasing share of quantitative studies find a link between weather anomalies and violence for some forms of violence, but the directions are not always consistent and the mechanisms are not satisfactorily understood. Non-naturalist scholars note important reservations. Summary Important improvements have been made during the last few years, but much remains to conclude that climate change will increase the risk of violence. An increased focus on the political consequences of adaptation and mitigation is needed. © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Warmer winters alter the dynamics of a local bird population and reduce immigration rate due to density-dependent feedback., Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions.

BackgroundThe increasing human population and global intensification of agriculture have had a major impact on the world’s natural ecosystems and caused devastating effects on populations of mega-herbivores such as the African savanna elephants, through habitat reduction and fragmentation and increased human–animal conflict. Animals with vast home ranges are forced into increasingly smaller geographical areas, often restricted by fencing or encroaching anthropogenic activities, resulting in huge pressures on these areas to meet the animals’ resource needs. This can present a nutritional challenge and cause animals to adapt their movement patterns to meet their dietary needs for specific minerals, potentially causing human–animal conflict. The aim of this review is to consolidate understanding of nutritional drivers for animal movement, especially that of African savanna elephants and focus the direction of future research. Peer reviewed literature available was generally geographically specific and studies conducted on isolated populations of individual species. African savanna elephants have the capacity to extensively alter the landscape and have been more greatly studied than other herbivores, making them a good example species to use for this review. Alongside this, their movement choices, potentially linked with nutritional drivers could be applicable to a range of other species. Relevant case study examples of other herbivores moving based on nutritional needs are discussed.MethodsThree databases were searched in this review: Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar, using identified search terms. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were determined and applied as required. Additional grey literature was reviewed as appropriate.ResultsInitial searches yielded 1,870 records prior to application of inclusion and exclusion criteria. A less detailed review of grey literature, and additional peer-reviewed literature which did not meet the inclusion criteria but was deemed relevant by the authors was also conducted to ensure thorough coverage of the subject.DiscussionA review of peer reviewed literature was undertaken to examine nutritional drivers for African elephant movement, exploring documented examples from free-ranging African savanna elephants and, where relevant, other herbivore species. This could help inform prediction or mitigation of human–elephant conflict, potentially when animals move according to nutritional needs, and related drivers for this movement. In addition, appropriate grey literature was included to capture current research.

Background: Prenatal exposure to air pollutants has been suggested as a possible etiologic factor for the occurrence of autism spectrum disorder. Objectives: We aimed to assess whether prenatal air pollution exposure is associated with childhood autistic traits in the general population. Methods: Ours was a collaborative study of four European population-based birth/child cohorts—CATSS (Sweden), Generation R (the Netherlands), GASPII (Italy), and INMA (Spain). Nitrogen oxides (NO2, NOx) and particulate matter (PM) with diameters of ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), ≤ 10 μm (PM10), and between 2.5 and 10 μm (PMcoarse), and PM2.5 absorbance were estimated for birth addresses by land-use regression models based on monitoring campaigns performed between 2008 and 2011. Levels were extrapolated back in time to exact pregnancy periods. We quantitatively assessed autistic traits when the child was between 4 and 10 years of age. Children were classified with autistic traits within the borderline/clinical range and within the clinical range using validated cut-offs. Adjusted cohort-specific effect estimates were combined using random-effects meta-analysis. Results: A total of 8,079 children were included. Prenatal air pollution exposure was not associated with autistic traits within the borderline/clinical range (odds ratio = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.10 per each 10-μg/m3 increase in NO2 pregnancy levels). Similar results were observed in the different cohorts, for the other pollutants, and in assessments of children with autistic traits within the clinical range or children with autistic traits as a quantitative score. Conclusions: Prenatal exposure to NO2 and PM was not associated with autistic traits in children from 4 to 10 years of age in four European population-based birth/child cohort studies. Funding was provided as follows: ESCAPE Project— European Community’s Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2011-GA#211250). CATSS, Sweden— Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare (FORTE), Swedish Research Council (VR) Formas, in partner hip with FORTE and VINNOVA (cross-disciplinary research program concerning children’s and young people’s mental health); VR through the Swedish Initiative for Research on Microdata in the Social And Medical Sciences (SIMSAM) framework grant 340-2013-5867; HKH Kronprinsessan Lovisas förening för barnasjukvård; and the Strategic Research Program in Epidemiology at Karolinska Institutet. Generation R, the Netherlands—The Generation R Study is conducted by the Erasmus University Medical Center in close collaboration with the School of Law and Faculty of Social Sciences of the Erasmus University Rotterdam; the Municipal Health Service Rotterdam area, Rotterdam; the Rotterdam Homecare foundation, Rotterdam; and the Stichting Trombosedienst & Artsenlaboratorium Rijnmond (STAR-MDC), Rotterdam. The general design of the Generation R Study is made possible by financial support from the Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam; the Erasmus University Rotterdam; the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw); the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO); and the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport. The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) received funding from the Netherlands Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment to support exposure assessment. GASPII, Italy—grant from the Italian Ministry of Health (ex art.12, 2001). INMA, Spain— grants from Instituto de Salud Carlos III (Red INMA G03/176 and CB06/02/0041 FIS-FEDER 03/1615, 04/1509, 04/1112, 04/1931, 05/1079, 05/1052, 06/1213, 07/0314, 09/02647, 11/01007, 11/02591, CP11/00178, FIS-PI041436, FIS-PI081151, FIS-PI06/0867, FIS-PS09/00090), PI13/1944, PI13_02032, PI14/0891, PI14/1687, MS13/00054, UE (FP7-ENV-2011 cod 282957, and HEALTH.2010.2.4.5-1); Generalitat de Catalunya-CIRIT 1999SGR 00241; La Fundació La Marató de TV3 (090430); Conselleria de Sanitat Generalitat Valenciana; Department of Health of the Basque Government (2005111093 and 2009111069); and Provincial Government of Gipuzkoa (DFG06/004 and DFG08/001). V.W.V.J. received an additional grant from the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw 90700303, 916.10159). A.G.’s work was supported by a research grant from the European Community’s 7th Framework Programme (FP7/2008–2013-GA#212652). A full roster of the INMA project investigators can be found online (http://www. proyectoinma.org/presentacion-inma/listado-investigadores/ en_listado-investigadores.html).

CONTEXT: Epidemiological studies and animal models demonstrate that endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) contribute to cognitive deficits and neurodevelopmental disabilities.OBJECTIVE: The objective was to estimate neurodevelopmental disability and associated costs that can be reasonably attributed to EDC exposure in the European Union.DESIGN: An expert panel applied a weight-of-evidence characterization adapted from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Exposure-response relationships and reference levels were evaluated for relevant EDCs, and biomarker data were organized from peer-reviewed studies to represent European exposure and approximate burden of disease. Cost estimation as of 2010 utilized lifetime economic productivity estimates, lifetime cost estimates for autism spectrum disorder, and annual costs for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. Setting, Patients and Participants, and Intervention: Cost estimation was carried out from a societal perspective, ie, including direct costs (eg, treatment costs) and indirect costs such as productivity loss.RESULTS: The panel identified a 70-100% probability that polybrominated diphenyl ether and organophosphate exposures contribute to IQ loss in the European population. Polybrominated diphenyl ether exposures were associated with 873 000 (sensitivity analysis, 148 000 to 2.02 million) lost IQ points and 3290 (sensitivity analysis, 3290 to 8080) cases of intellectual disability, at costs of €9.59 billion (sensitivity analysis, €1.58 billion to €22.4 billion). Organophosphate exposures were associated with 13.0 million (sensitivity analysis, 4.24 million to 17.1 million) lost IQ points and 59 300 (sensitivity analysis, 16 500 to 84 400) cases of intellectual disability, at costs of €146 billion (sensitivity analysis, €46.8 billion to €194 billion). Autism spectrum disorder causation by multiple EDCs was assigned a 20-39% probability, with 316 (sensitivity analysis, 126-631) attributable cases at a cost of €199 million (sensitivity analysis, €79.7 million to €399 million). Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder causation by multiple EDCs was assigned a 20-69% probability, with 19 300 to 31 200 attributable cases at a cost of €1.21 billion to €2.86 billion.CONCLUSIONS: EDC exposures in Europe contribute substantially to neurobehavioral deficits and disease, with a high probability of >€150 billion costs/year. These results emphasize the advantages of controlling EDC exposure.

International audience; Water is a growing concern in cities, and its sustainable management is very complex. Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been increasingly used to assess the environmental impacts of water technologies during the last 20 years. This review aims at compiling all LCA papers related to water technologies, out of which 18 LCA studies deals with whole urban water systems (UWS). A focus is carried out on these 18 case studies which are analyzed ac- cording to criteria derived from the four phases of LCA international standards. The results show that whereas the case studies share a common goal, i.e., providing quantitative in- formation to policy makers on the environmental impacts of urban water systems and their forecasting scenarios, they are based on different scopes, resulting in the selection of different functional units and system boundaries. A quantitative comparison of life cycle inventory and life cycle impact assessment data is provided, and the results are discussed. It shows the superiority of information offered by multi-criteria approaches for decision making compared to that derived from mono-criterion. From this review, recommenda- tions on the way to conduct the environmental assessment of urban water systems are given, e.g., the need to provide consistent mass balances in terms of emissions and water flows. Remaining challenges for urban water system LCAs are identified, such as a better consideration of water users and resources and the inclusion of recent LCA developments (territorial approaches and water-related impacts).; L'eau est une préoccupation croissante dans les villes, et sa gestion durable est très complexe. L'analyse du cycle de vie (ACV) a été de plus en plus utilisé pour évaluer les impacts environnementaux des technologies de l'eau au cours des 20 dernières années. Cet examen vise à compiler tous les documents de l'ACV liés aux technologies de l'eau, dont 18 études ACV traite des systèmes d'eau urbains entiers (UWS). Une mise au point est effectuée sur ces 18 études de cas qui sont analysés selon des critères issus des quatre phases de normes internationales ACV. Les résultats montrent que, tandis que les études de cas partagent un objectif commun, à savoir, fourniture d'informations quantitatives pour les décideurs politiques sur les impacts environnementaux des systèmes d'eau urbains et leurs scénarios de prévision, ils sont basés sur des portées différentes, ce qui entraîne la sélection des différents fonctionnelle unités et les limites du système. Une comparaison quantitative de l'inventaire du cycle de vie et du cycle de vie des données d'évaluation d'impact est fourni, et les résultats sont discutés. Il montre la supériorité de l'information offerte par les approches multi-critères pour la prise de décision par rapport aux informations provenant de mono-critère. De cet examen, des recommandations sur la façon de procéder à l'évaluation environnementale des systèmes d'eau urbains sont donnés, par exemple, la nécessité de fournir des bilans de masse cohérentes en termes d'émissions et des flux d'eau. Défis à relever pour le système des eaux urbaines ACV sont identifiés, comme une meilleure prise en compte des utilisateurs et des ressources en eau et l'inclusion de l'évolution récente de l'ACV (approches territoriales et les impacts liés à l'eau).

As countries worldwide, and particularly in Europe, move to increase deployment of low carbon energy sources, significant investments in new transmission networks are planned. However, past cases of public opposition – both to power line siting and large-scale renewable energy projects – indicate the importance of understanding public beliefs and acceptance, and using such knowledge to inform policy making and planning. This study conducted a comparative analysis of public beliefs across three European countries (UK, Norway and Sweden) drawing on representative samples of adults in each context (total n = 5107). Findings show significant differences between countries, notably lower levels of acceptance and trust in the UK, but also similarities, for example that local residents are considered to have little involvement in planning- and decision-making processes. The results indicate two important principles: that acceptance can be empirically distinguished from support, and that general acceptance of energy projects is higher than local acceptance. Potential geographical, socio-historical and political explanations for the results are proposed and future research needs recommended. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Electricity grids Networks Public beliefs Public acceptance National comparisons Norges forskningsråd 207774 Andre Statnett SF

High levels of environmental pollutants such as persistent organic pollutants (POPs) including PCB and DDT have been found in the Arctic and many of those pollutants may impair reproduction through endocrine disruption. Nevertheless, their effects on stress hormones remain poorly understood, especially in free-ranging birds. Corticosterone, the principal glucocorticoid in birds, can indirectly impair reproduction. The aim of the present study was to examine the relationships between POPs and reproduction through their potential consequences on different reproductive traits (breeding decision, egg-laying date, breeding success) and corticosterone secretion (baseline and stress-induced levels). We addressed those questions in an Arctic population of female black-legged kittiwakes during the pre-breeding stage and measured several legacy POPs (PCBs and pesticides: HCB, p,p′-DDE, CHL) inwhole blood. POP levelswere not related to breeding decision neither to breeding success, whereas females with high levels of pesticides laid their eggs earlier in the season. We found a negative relationship between POP levels and body condition index in non-breeding females. Black-legged kittiwakeswith higher levels of PCB showed stronger adrenocortical responsewhen subjected to a capture-handling stress protocol. We suggest that PCBsmay disrupt corticosterone secretion whereas the positive relationship between pesticides and egg-laying date could either originate from a direct effect of pesticides or may be related to other confounding factors such as age or individual's quality. Although no direct negative reproduction output of POPs was found in this study, it is possible that the most contaminated individuals would be more sensitive to environmental stress and would be less able to maintain parental investment than less polluted individuals. © 2014. This is the authors’ accepted and refereed manuscript to the article. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. This study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of key socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960–2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014–2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway. © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence.

Background: Scientists and regulatory agencies strive to identify chemicals that may cause harmful effects to humans and the environment; however, prioritization is challenging because of the large number of chemicals requiring evaluation and limited data and resources. Objectives: We aimed to prioritize chemicals for exposure and exposure potential and obtain a quantitative perspective on research needs to better address uncertainty in screening assessments. Methods: We used a multimedia mass balance model to prioritize > 12,000 organic chemicals using four far-field human exposure metrics. The propagation of variance (uncertainty) in key chemical information used as model input for calculating exposure metrics was quantified. Results: Modeled human concentrations and intake rates span approximately 17 and 15 orders of magnitude, respectively. Estimates of exposure potential using human concentrations and a unit emission rate span approximately 13 orders of magnitude, and intake fractions span 7 orders of magnitude. The actual chemical emission rate contributes the greatest variance (uncertainty) in exposure estimates. The human biotransformation half-life is the second greatest source of uncertainty in estimated concentrations. In general, biotransformation and biodegradation half-lives are greater sources of uncertainty in modeled exposure and exposure potential than chemical partition coefficients. Conclusions: Mechanistic exposure modeling is suitable for screening and prioritizing large numbers of chemicals. By including uncertainty analysis and uncertainty in chemical information in the exposure estimates, these methods can help identify and address the important sources of uncertainty in human exposure and risk assessment in a systematic manner. Reproduced from Environmental Health Perspectives.

The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts.

Knowledge of people’s understanding of environmental problems is vital for the effective implementation of the ecosystem approach to marine management. This is especially relevant when conservation goals are aimed at ecosystems in the deep-sea that are remote to the consciousness of most people. This study explores public perceptions of the deep-sea environment among the Scottish and Norwegian public. It further analyses the relationships between respondents’ pro-environmental concerns towards the marine environment and personal characteristics using a multiple indicators multiple causes model. The results show that public knowledge of the deep-sea environment is low for Scottish and moderate for Norwegians. Awareness of cold-water corals was high for the Lofoten case study area amongst the Norwegian public and low for the Mingulay reef complex in the Scottish case. These differences might arise because Norway is known to host the world’s largest cold-water corals in the Lofoten area; a fact that has been well publicised. We find that most people think changes in the deep-sea have at least some effect on them. On average, the public perceive the deep-sea condition to be at most ‘fairly good’ but are dissatisfied with the management of it with approximately only one third or less thinking it is well-managed. Generally, the public perception from both countries show ecocentric attitudes towards the marine environment implying that they recognize the value of ecosystem services, the current ecological crisis and the need for sustainable management.

Marine invertebrates at the base of oceanic trophic webs play important ecological and economical roles supporting worldwide fisheries worth millions. There is an increasing concern about the effects of anthropogenic noise on marine fauna but little is known about its effects on invertebrates. Here the current peer-reviewed literature on this subject is reviewed, dealing with different ontogenetic stages and taxa. These studies show that the noise effects on marine invertebrates range from apparently null to behavioral/physiological responses to mortalities. They emphasize the need to consider potential interactions of human activities using intense sound sources with the conservation and fisheries of local invertebrate stocks.

Globally most children do not engage in enough physical activity. Day length and weather conditions have been identified as determinants of physical activity, although how they may be overcome as barriers is not clear. We aim to examine if and how relationships between children’s physical activity and weather and day length vary between countries and identify settings in which children were better able to maintain activity levels given the weather conditions they experienced. In this repeated measures study, we used data from 23,451 participants in the International Children’s Accelerometry Database (ICAD). Daily accelerometer-measured physical activity (counts per minute; cpm) was matched to local weather conditions and the relationships assessed using multilevel regression models. Multilevel models accounted for clustering of days within occasions within children within study-cities, and allowed us to explore if and how the relationships between weather variables and physical activity differ by setting. Increased precipitation and wind speed were associated with decreased cpm while better visibility and more hours of daylight were associated with increased cpm. Models indicated that increases in these variables resulted in average changes in mean cpm of 7.6/h of day length, −13.2/cm precipitation, 10.3/10 km visibility and −10.3/10kph wind speed (all p