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It is believed that, in the future, the intensity and frequency of extreme coastal flooding events may increase as a result of climate change. The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) project, Coastal Flooding by Extreme Events and EU FP7 Morphological Impacts and Coastal Risks Induced by Extreme Storm Events project are investigating the flood risks in the eastern Irish Sea, an area that includes most of England’s coastal types. Using a previously modelled and validated historical extreme surge event, in November 1977, we now investigate the changes in peak surge as a result of possible future climate conditions. In order to simulate the surge, we have set up a one-way nested approach, using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System 3D baroclinic model, from a domain covering the whole NW European continental shelf, through to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model; both areas are forced by tides, atmospheric pressure and winds. We use this modelling system to investigate the impact of enhanced wind velocities and increased sea levels on the peak surge elevation and residual current pattern. The results show that sea level rise has greater potential to increase surge levels than increased wind speeds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In the future it is believed that extreme coastal flooding events will increase (in frequency and intensity) as a result of climate change. We are investigating the flood risks in the eastern Irish Sea posed by extreme storm events. Here, an 11-year simulation (01/01/1996–01/01/2007) including wave–current interaction has been validated. These data can then be used to investigate the potential for coastal flooding in the study area. To accurately model a storm event in the eastern Irish Sea both wave effects and the influence of the external surge need to be considered. To simulate the waves, we have set up a one-way nested approach from a 1° North Atlantic model, to a 1.85km Irish Sea model, using the state-of-the-art 3rd-generation spectral WAve Model (WAM). This allows the influence of swell to be correctly represented. The Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal-Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) has been used to model the tide–surge interaction. To include the external surge we have set up a one-way nested approach from the 1/9° by 1/6° operational Continental Shelf surge model, to a 1.85km Irish Sea model. For the high resolution Irish Sea model we use a POLCOMS–WAM coupled model, to allow for the effects of wave–current interaction on the prediction of surges at the coast. Using two classification schemes the coupled model is shown to be good and often very good at predicting the surge, total water elevation and wave conditions. We also find the number of low level surge events has increased in the study area over the past decade. However, this time period is too short to determine any long-term trends in the wave and surge levels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Asymmetry in the tide (unequal ebb and flood duration) is a dominant factor in causing residual sediment transport and morphological changes in estuaries. The evolution of estuarine morphology is a process of dynamic equilibrium in the short-term, while these features are ephemeral in the long-term. In this study we investigate the spatial distribution of tidal distortion and asymmetry in the Dee estuary, UK, by 3-dimensional numerical modelling methods. High resolution LIDAR surveys are used to underpin and explain our numerical modelling results in terms of basin hypsometry and areas of recent erosion and deposition. Harmonic analysis of the numerical modelling results showed that the shallower intertidal areas (sand and mud banks) were the most tidally asymmetric, showing flood dominance. The main navigation channels showed some ebb dominance but the tides here were relatively undistorted. This overall flood dominance is likely to induce net sediment import to the Dee, which explains known historical morphological changes (large scale accretion over the last two centuries) and also recent morphological changes as seen from the LIDAR surveys (which show predominantly net accretion between 2003 and 2006). Hypsometrical analysis suggests the Dee may be approaching equilibrium, and that the flood dominance and sedimentation rate may therefore decrease in the future. In an infilling estuary, an increase in the area and elevation of tidal flats can eventually shift an estuary towards ebb dominance, as shown by previous research and by ‘idealised estuary’ modelling results presented in this study. The large tidal amplitude to hydraulic depth ratio of the Dee, however, suggests that the tidal flats would have to be very extensive indeed for this to occur. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]