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The present work investigates leading modes of winter fog days over eastern China and possible association with sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, two dominant interannual modes of winter fog days are identified: a monopole mode and a meridional dipole mode. The monopole mode displays a significantly positive relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The meridional dipole mode is closely linked to North Atlantic tripole (NAT) SST anomalies. A quasi-barotropic Rossby wave train can be excited by the NAT SST anomalies and propagates eastwards to East Asia. During winters with the positive phase of the NAT SST anomalies, there appear cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation anomalies over northern and southern China, favoring less and more winter fog frequency, respectively. These observed impacts from the ENSO and NAT SST anomalies can be further reproduced by atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. Consideration of the NAT SST anomalies can apparently improve the explained variance of winter fog days over eastern China on the basis of the common-used ENSO signal. When ENSO and NAT occur as in-phase combinations and out-of-phase combinations, winter fog days anomalies appear over southern and northern China, respectively. These results have important implications on the seasonal-to-interannual predictability of the winter fog frequency over eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During June–July 2020, the record‐breaking flooding in the recent four decades struck the plum rain belt over China, Japan, and Korea. Concurrent with this persistent heavy rainfall, pronounced Indian Ocean basin warming (IOBW) was observed, following the previous El Niño event in the transition to La Niña‐like mean state this summer. This tropical Indo‐Pacific large‐scale thermal condition provided favorable conditions for rainfall surpluses over the plum rain belt via the western North Pacific anticyclone. Superimposed on the tropical Indo‐Pacific large‐scale thermal condition, an extraordinary long‐lasting and quasistationary Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) active phase persisted in the Indian Ocean throughout June–July 2020, lasting for 59 days. The MJO‐associated teleconnection was mainly responsible for the extreme rainfall over the plum rain belt, which was facilitated by the conducive large‐scale Indo‐Pacific oceanic‐atmospheric condition. Plain Language Summary: The East Asian rainy season (commonly called the plum rain, also known as Meiyu in China, Baiu in Japan, and Jangma in Korea), is caused by rainfall along a persistent stationary front. The plum rain season usually starts in June and persists into the middle of July. During June–July 2020, the region of the plum rain belt over China, Japan, and Korea, was ravaged by the strongest flooding in decades with catastrophic losses. The physical mechanisms driving this extreme flooding remains unclear. Concurrent with this persistent rainfall surpluses, the Indo‐Pacific oceans featured a developing La Niña‐like state in the eastern tropical Pacific and pronounced sea surface temperature warming in the Indian Ocean basin. Although these Indo‐Pacific thermal conditions can provide a favorable large‐scale background for the rainfall surpluses over East Asia, they cannot explain the extreme rainfall amount over the plum rain belt during 2020. We show that an exceptionally long‐lasting and quasistationary Madden‐Julian Oscillation activity over the Indian Ocean was the key reason for this extreme event. Key Points: The rainfall amount over the East Asian plum‐rain belt during summer 2020 was the largest in the recent four decadesThe intense flooding coincided with an exceptionally persistent Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) active phase in the Indian Ocean throughout June and JulyThis extraordinary MJO activity was facilitated by the conducive pantropic background oceanic‐atmospheric conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies demonstrated the existence of a conspicuous atmospheric combination mode (C-mode) originating from nonlinear interactions between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific warm pool annual cycle (AC). Here we find that the C-mode exhibits prominent decadal amplitude variations during the ENSO decaying boreal spring season. It is revealed that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) can largely explain this waxing and waning in amplitude. A robust positive correlation between ENSO and the C-mode is detected during a negative AMO phase but not during a positive phase. Similar results can also be found in the relationship of ENSO with 1) the western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone and 2) spring precipitation over southern China, both of which are closely associated with the C-mode. We suggest that ENSO property changes due to an AMO modulation play a crucial role in determining these decadal shifts. During a positive AMO phase, ENSO events are distinctly weaker than those in an AMO negative phase. In addition, El Niño events concurrent with a positive AMO phase tend to exhibit a westward-shifted sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern. These SST characteristics during the positive AMO phase are both not conducive to the development of the meridionally asymmetric C-mode atmospheric circulation pattern and thus reduce the ENSO/C-mode correlation on decadal time scales. These observations can be realistically reproduced by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) experiment in which North Atlantic SSTs are nudged to reproduce a 50-yr sinusoidally varying AMO evolution. Our conclusion carries important implications for understanding seasonally modulated ENSO dynamics and multiscale climate impacts over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have shown that the Indo-Pacific atmospheric response to ENSO comprises two dominant modes of variability: a meridionally quasi-symmetric response (independent of the annual cycle) and an antisymmetric response (arising from the nonlinear atmospheric interaction between ENSO variability and the annual cycle), referred to as the combination mode (C-mode). This study demonstrates that the direct El Niño signal over the tropics is confined to the equatorial region and has no significant impact on the atmospheric response over East Asia. The El Niño-associated equatorial anomalies can be expanded toward off-equatorial regions by the C-mode through ENSO's interaction with the annual cycle. The C-mode is the prime driver for the development of an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the El Niño decay phase, which usually transports more moisture to East Asia and thereby causes more precipitation over southern China. An atmospheric general circulation model is used that reproduces well the WNP anticyclonic anomalies when both El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies as well as the SST annual cycle are prescribed as boundary conditions. However, no significant WNP anticyclonic circulation anomaly appears during the El Niño decay phase when excluding the SST annual cycle. The analyses herein of observational data and model experiments suggest that the annual cycle plays a key role in the East Asian climate anomalies associated with El Niño through their nonlinear atmospheric interaction. Hence, a realistic simulation of the annual cycle is crucial in order to correctly capture the ENSO-associated climate anomalies over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]