1. Changes in the Direct Climate Effect of Black Carbon Aerosols in East Asia Under the "Dual Carbon" Goal of China.
- Author
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Gao, Peng, Gao, Yiman, Zhou, Yinan, Cao, Heng, Hu, Yaxin, Li, Shu, Liang, Shanrong, Wang, Tijian, Xie, Min, Li, Mengmeng, and Zhuang, Bingliang
- Subjects
EMISSIONS (Air pollution) ,RADIATIVE forcing ,AIR pollutants ,ATMOSPHERIC models ,CARBON-black - Abstract
In the context of China's "dual carbon" goal, emissions of air pollutants are expected to significantly decrease in the future. Thus, the direct climate effects of black carbon (BC) aerosols in East Asia are investigated under this goal using an updated regional climate and chemistry model. The simulated annual average BC concentration over East Asia is approximately 1.29 μg/m3 in the last decade. Compared to those in 2010–2020, both the BC column burden and instantaneous direct radiative forcing in East Asia decrease by more than 55% and 80%, respectively, in the carbon peak year (2030s) and the carbon neutrality year (2060s). Conversely, the BC effective radiative forcing (ERF) and regional climate responses to BC exhibit substantial nonlinearity to emission reduction, possibly resulting from different adjustments of thermal‐dynamic fields and clouds from BC‐radiation interactions. The regional mean BC ERF at the tropopause over East Asia is approximately +1.11 W/m2 in 2010–2020 while negative in the 2060s. BC‐radiation interactions in the present‐day impose a significant annual mean cooling of −0.2 to −0.5 K in central China but warming +0.3 K in the Tibetan Plateau. As China's BC emissions decline, surface temperature responses show a mixed picture compared to 2010–2020, with more cooling in eastern China and Tibet of −0.2 to −0.3 K in the 2030s, but more warming in central China of approximately +0.3 K by the 2060s. The Indian BC might play a more important role in East Asian climate with reduction of BC emissions in China. Plain Language Summary: Black carbon (BC) aerosols, which are among the air pollutants that will be reduced in China under the "dual carbon" goal, can have an impact on the regional climate by absorbing solar radiation. We use a regional climate model to simulate the climate effect of BC over East Asia under the "dual carbon" goal of China. The results showed that the BC concentration and column burden in East Asia, as well as the instantaneous direct radiative forcing, will decrease significantly under future regional emission reduction policies. However, the effective radiative forcing of BC and regional climate responses do not exhibit simple linear relationships with emissions. The BC‐induced atmospheric thermal‐dynamic anomalies are the main drivers of this nonlinearity. Similarly, BC emissions from India might also influence the East Asian climate. Key Points: The East Asian black carbon (BC) loadings and instantaneous direct radiative forcings significantly decrease under the "dual carbon" goal of ChinaThe BC induced regional climate changes show nonlinear responses to the BC emission reductionThe Indian BC might play an increasingly important role in East Asian climate with decreasing BC emissions in China [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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